Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

In the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.

Strategic bidding in electricity markets: an agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of the dynamics of a country economy

This paper analyzes the Portuguese short-run business cycles over the last 150 years and presents the multidimensional scaling (MDS) for visualizing the results. The analytical and numerical assessment of this long-run perspective reveals periods with close connections between the macroeconomic variables related to government accounts equilibrium, balance of payments equilibrium, and economic growth. The MDS method is adopted for a quantitative statistical analysis. In this way, similarity clusters of several historical periods emerge in the MDS maps, namely, in identifying similarities and dissimilarities that identify periods of prosperity and crises, growth, and stagnation. Such features are major aspects of collective national achievement, to which can be associated the impact of international problems such as the World Wars, the Great Depression, or the current global financial crisis, as well as national events in the context of broad political blueprints for the Portuguese society in the rising globalization process.

Characterization of the effects of antiepileptic drugs on bone metabolism: in vitro studies with human osteoblastic and osteoclastic cells

Bone is constantly being molded and shaped by the action of osteoclasts and osteoblasts. A proper equilibrium between both cell types metabolic activities is required to ensure an adequate skeletal tissue structure, and it involves resorption of old bone and formation of new bone tissue. It is reported that treatment with antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) can elicit alterations in skeletal structure, in particular in bone mineral density. Nevertheless, the knowledge regarding the effects of AEDs on bone cells are still scarce. In this context, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of five different AEDs on human osteoclastic, osteoblastic and co-cultured cells. Osteoclastic cell cultures were established from precursor cells isolated from human peripheral blood and were characterized for tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) activity, number of TRAP+ multinucleated cells, presence of cells with actin rings and expressing vitronectin and calcitonin receptors and apoptosis rate. Also, the involvement of several signaling pathways on the cellular response was addressed. Osteoblastic cell cultures were obtained from femur heads of patients (25-45 years old) undergoing orthopaedic surgery procedures and were then studied for cellular proliferation/viability, ALP activity, histochemical staining of ALP and apoptosis rate. Also the expression of osteoblast-related genes and the involvement of some osteoblastogenesis-related signalling pathways on cellular response were addressed. For co-cultured cells, osteoblastic cells were firstly seeded and cultured. After that, PBMC were added to the osteoblastic cells and co-cultures were evaluated using the same osteoclast and osteoblast parameters mentioned above for the corresponding isolated cell. Cell-cultures were maintained in the absence (control) or in the presence of different AEDs (carbamazepine, gabapentin, lamotrigine, topiramate and valproic acid). All the tested drugs were able to affect osteoclastic and osteoblastic cells development, although with different profiles on their osteoclastogenic and osteoblastogenic modulation properties. Globally, the tendency was to inhibit the process. Furthermore, the signaling pathways involved in the process also seemed to be differently affected by the AEDs, suggesting that the different drugs may affect osteoclastogenesis and/or osteoblastogenesis through different mechanisms. In conclusion, the present study showed that the different AEDs had the ability to directly and indirectly modulate bone cells differentiation, shedding new light towards a better understanding of how these drugs can affect bone tissue.

Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Estratégias de investimento em mercados liberalizados de energia elétrica

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo Energia

Effect of technical parameters on dose and image quality in a computed radiography system

The discovery of X-rays was undoubtedly one of the greatest stimulus for improving the efficiency in the provision of healthcare services. The ability to view, non-invasively, inside the human body has greatly facilitated the work of professionals in diagnosis of diseases. The exclusive focus on image quality (IQ), without understanding how they are obtained, affect negatively the efficiency in diagnostic radiology. The equilibrium between the benefits and the risks are often forgotten. It is necessary to adopt optimization strategies to maximize the benefits (image quality) and minimize risk (dose to the patient) in radiological facilities. In radiology, the implementation of optimization strategies involves an understanding of images acquisition process. When a radiographer adopts a certain value of a parameter (tube potential [kVp], tube current-exposure time product [mAs] or additional filtration), it is essential to know its meaning and impact of their variation in dose and image quality. Without this, any optimization strategy will be a failure. Worldwide, data show that use of x-rays has been increasingly frequent. In Cabo Verde, we note an effort by healthcare institutions (e.g. Ministry of Health) in equipping radiological facilities and the recent installation of a telemedicine system requires purchase of new radiological equipment. In addition, the transition from screen-films to digital systems is characterized by a raise in patient exposure. Given that this transition is slower in less developed countries, as is the case of Cabo Verde, the need to adopt optimization strategies becomes increasingly necessary. This study was conducted as an attempt to answer that need. Although this work is about objective evaluation of image quality, and in medical practice the evaluation is usually subjective (visual evaluation of images by radiographer / radiologist), studies reported a correlation between these two types of evaluation (objective and subjective) [5-7] which accredits for conducting such studies. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of exposure parameters (kVp and mAs) when using additional Cooper (Cu) filtration in dose and image quality in a Computed Radiography system.

Synthesis, characterization and reactivity of new cobalt, palladium and nickel complexes bearing α-diimines and P, O ligands

This work describes the synthesis and characterization of a series of new α-diimine and P,O, β-keto and acetamide phosphines ligands, and their complexation to Ni(II), Co(II),Co(III) and Pd(II) to obtain a series of new compounds aiming to study their structural characteristics and to test their catalytic activity. All the compounds synthesized were characterized by the usual spectroscopic and spectrometric techniques: Elemental Analysis, MALDI-TOF-MS spectrometry, IR, UV-vis, 1H, 13C and 31P NMR spectroscopies. Some of the paramagnetic compounds were also characterized by EPR. For the majority of the compounds it was possible to solve their solid state structure by single crystal X-ray diffraction. Tests for olefin polymerization were performed in order to determine the catalytic activity of the Co(II) complexes. Chapter I presents a brief introduction to homogenous catalysis, highlighting the reactions catalyzed by the type of compounds described in this thesis, namely olefin polymerization and oligomerization and reactions catalyzed by the complexes bearing α-diimines and P,O type ligands. Chapter II is dedicated to the description of the synthesis of new α-diimines cobalt (II) complexes, of general formula [CoX2(α-diimine)], where X = Cl or I and the α-diimines are bis(aryl)acenaphthenequinonediimine) (Ar-BIAN) and 1,4-diaryl-2,3-dimethyl-1,4-diaza-1,3-butadiene (Ar-DAB). Structures solved by single crystal X-ray diffraction were obtained for all the described complexes. For some of the compounds, X-band EPR measurements were performed on polycrystalline samples, showing a high-spin Co(II) (S = 3/2) ion, in a distorted axial environment. EPR single crystal experiments on two of the compounds allowed us to determine the g tensor orientation in the molecular structure. In Chapter III we continue with the synthesis and characterization of more cobalt (II)complexes bearing α-diimines of general formula [CoX2(α-diimine)], with X = Cl or I and α-diimines are bis(aryl)acenaphthenequinonediimine) (Ar-BIAN) and 1,4-diaryl-2,3-dimethyl- 1,4-diaza-1,3-butadiene (Ar-DAB). The structures of three of the new compounds synthesized were determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction. A NMR paramagnetic characterization of all the compounds described is presented. Ethylene polymerization tests were done to determine the catalytic activity of several of the Co(II) complexes described in Chapter II and III and their results are shown. In Chapter IV a new rigid bidentate ligand, bis(1-naphthylimino)acenaphthene, and its complexes with Zn(II) and Pd(II), were synthesized. Both the ligand and its complexes show syn and anti isomers. Structures of the ligand and the anti isomer of the Pd(II) complex were solved by single crystal X-ray diffraction. All the compounds were characterized by elemental analysis, MALDI-TOF-MS spectrometry, and by IR, UV-vis, 1H, 13C, 1H-1H COSY, 1H-13C HSQC, 1H-13C HSQC-TOCSY and 1H-1H NOESY NMR when necessary. DFT studies showed that both conformers of [PdCl2(BIAN)] are isoenergetics and can be obtain experimentally. However, we can predict that the isomerization process is not available in square-planar complex, but is possible for the free ligand. The molecular geometry is very similar in both isomers, and only different orientations for naphthyl groups can be expected. Chapter V describes the synthesis of new P, O type ligands, β-keto phosphine, R2PCH2C(O)Ph, and acetamide phosphine R2PNHC(O)Me, as well as a series of new cobalt(III) complexes namely [(η5-C5H5)CoI2{Ph2PCH2C(O)Ph}], and [(η5- C5H5)CoI2{Ph2PNHC(O)Me}]. Treating these Co(III) compounds with an excess of Et3N, resulted in complexes η2-phosphinoenolate [(η5-C5H5)CoI{Ph2PCH…C(…O)Ph}] and η2- acetamide phosphine [(η5-C5H5)CoI{Ph2PN…C(…O)Me}]. Nickel (II) complexes were also obtained: cis-[Ni(Ph2PN…C(…O)Me)2] and cis-[Ni((i-Pr)2PN…C(…O)Me)2]. Their geometry and isomerism were discussed. Seven structures of the compounds described in this chapter were determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction. The general conclusions of this work can be found in Chapter VI.

Chemical reaction network of flavylium ions in heterogeneous media

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Química, especialidade em Química-Física, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Neural-network approach to modeling liquid crystals in complex confinement

Finding the structure of a confined liquid crystal is a difficult task since both the density and order parameter profiles are nonuniform. Starting from a microscopic model and density-functional theory, one has to either (i) solve a nonlinear, integral Euler-Lagrange equation, or (ii) perform a direct multidimensional free energy minimization. The traditional implementations of both approaches are computationally expensive and plagued with convergence problems. Here, as an alternative, we introduce an unsupervised variant of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network for minimizing the free energy of a fluid of hard nonspherical particles confined between planar substrates of variable penetrability. We then test our algorithm by comparing its results for the structure (density-orientation profiles) and equilibrium free energy with those obtained by standard iterative solution of the Euler-Lagrange equations and with Monte Carlo simulation results. Very good agreement is found and the MLP method proves competitively fast, flexible, and refinable. Furthermore, it can be readily generalized to the richer experimental patterned-substrate geometries that are now experimentally realizable but very problematic to conventional theoretical treatments.

Bertrand model under incomplete information

We consider a Bertrand duopoly model with unknown costs. The firms' aim is to choose the price of its product according to the well-known concept of Bayesian Nash equilibrium. The chooses are made simultaneously by both firms. In this paper, we suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that this game has exactly one Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We analyse the advantages, for firms and for consumers, of using the technology with highest production cost versus the one with cheapest production cost. We prove that the expected profit of each firm increases with the variance of its production costs. We also show that the expected price of each good increases with both expected production costs, being the effect of the expected production costs of the rival dominated by the effect of the own expected production costs.

Bertrand oligopoly when rivals' costs are unknown

We study a Bertrand oligopoly model with incomplete information about rivals' costs, where the uncertainty is given by a uniform distribution. We compute the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium of this game, the ex-ante expected profit and the ex-post profit of each firm. We see that, even though only one firm produces in equilibrium, all firms have a positive ex-ante expected profit.

Cournot competition between a non-profit firm and a for-profit firm with uncertainty

In this paper, we consider a Cournot competition between a nonprofit firm and a for-profit firm in a homogeneous goods market, with uncertain demand. Given an asymmetric tax schedule, we compute explicitly the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the tax rate and the degree of altruistic preference on market equilibrium outcomes.

Bertrand and Cournot oligopolies when rivals' costs are unknown

We study Bertrand and Cournot oligopoly models with incomplete information about rivals’ costs, where the uncertainty is given by a uniform distribution. We compute the Bayesian- Nash equilibrium of both games, the ex-ante expected profits and the ex-post profits of each firm. We see that, in the price competition, even though only one firm produces in equilibrium, all firms have a positive ex-ante expected profit.

Two-production-period in a duopoly with nonprofit and for-profit firms

We investigate endogenous roles in a competition between a nonprofit firm and a for-profit firm in a homogeneous goods market, by allowing two production periods. We find that the Cournot-type equilibrium and one Stackelberg-type equilibrium where the nonprofit firm becomes the follower exist; however, another tackelberg-type equilibrium where the nonprofit firm becomes the leader does not exist.