The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Impact of engineered nanomaterials on health : considerations for benefit-risk assessment

Nanotechnology encompasses the design, characterisation, production and application of materials and systems by controlling shape and size at the nanoscale (nanometres). Nanomaterials may differ from other materials because of their relatively large specific surface area, such that surface properties become particularly important. There has been rapid growth in investment in nanotechnology by both the public and private sectors worldwide. In the EU, nanotechnology is expected to become an important strategic contributor to achieving economic gain and societal and individual benefits. At the same time there is continuing scientific uncertainty and controversy about the safety of nanomaterials. It is important to ensure that timely policy development takes this into consideration. Uncertainty about safety may lead to polarised public debate and to business unwillingness to invest further. A clear regulatory framework to address potential health and environmental impacts, within the wider context of evaluating and communicating the benefit-risk balance, must be a core part of Europe's integrated efforts for nanotechnology innovation. While a number of studies have been carried out on the effect of environmental nanoparticles, e.g. from combustion processes, on human health, there is yet no generally acceptable paradigm for safety assessment of nanomaterials in consumer and other products. Therefore, a working group was established to consider issues for the possible impact of nanomaterials on human health focussing specifically on engineered nanomaterials. This represents the first joint initiative between EASAC and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The working group was given the remit to describe the state of the art of benefits and potential risks, current methods for safety assessment, and to evaluate their relevance, identify knowledge gaps in studying the safety of current nanomaterials, and recommend on priorities for nanomaterial research and the regulatory framework. This report focuses on key principles and issues, cross-referencing other sources for detailed information, rather than attempting a comprehensive account of the science. The focus is on human health although environmental effects are also discussed when directly relevant to health

A numeric model to simulate solar individual ultraviolet exposure.

Exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) light is the main causative factor for skin cancer. UV exposure depends on environmental and individual factors. Individual exposure data remain scarce and development of alternative assessment methods is greatly needed. We developed a model simulating human exposure to solar UV. The model predicts the dose and distribution of UV exposure received on the basis of ground irradiation and morphological data. Standard 3D computer graphics techniques were adapted to develop a rendering engine that estimates the solar exposure of a virtual manikin depicted as a triangle mesh surface. The amount of solar energy received by each triangle was calculated, taking into account reflected, direct and diffuse radiation, and shading from other body parts. Dosimetric measurements (n = 54) were conducted in field conditions using a foam manikin as surrogate for an exposed individual. Dosimetric results were compared to the model predictions. The model predicted exposure to solar UV adequately. The symmetric mean absolute percentage error was 13%. Half of the predictions were within 17% range of the measurements. This model provides a tool to assess outdoor occupational and recreational UV exposures, without necessitating time-consuming individual dosimetry, with numerous potential uses in skin cancer prevention and research.

El camino hacia la integración de sistemas de gestión de la información científica : el TCD (Trinity College Dublin) como estudio de caso. CERIF y euroCRIS

Pablo de Castro, Director de GrandIR, describió la visión que el Grupo euroCRIS tiene de la infraestructura integrada de gestión de la información científica, compuesta por un sistema CRIS institucional, un repositorio de publicaciones y un repositorio de datos y software, y presentó el modelo de infraestructura integrada del Trinity College Dublin (TCD) como estudio de caso internacional. El sistema CRIS del TCD (TCD Research Support System o RSS), desde su primera versión en 2002, está basado en el estándar CERIF, un modelo de descripción de la actividad científica que está adquiriendo una progresiva relevancia como base de los sistemas CRIS en Europa, particularmente en el Reino Unido. Se citaron en la presentación los ensayos para incorporar CERIF al modelo de datos del software ePrints de repositorios, habilitándolo así para soportar parte de las tareas de recolección de información que realiza un CRIS, y la progresiva cobertura de CERIF a ámbitos tales como la gestión de datos de investigación.

Defining risk thresholds for a 10-year probability of hip fracture model that combines clinical risk factors and quantitative ultrasound: results using the EPISEM cohort.

Using a large prospective cohort of over 12,000 women, we determined 2 thresholds (high risk and low risk of hip fracture) to use in a 10-yr hip fracture probability model that we had previously described, a model combining the heel stiffness index measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and a set of easily determined clinical risk factors (CRFs). The model identified a higher percentage of women with fractures as high risk than a previously reported risk score that combined QUS and CRF. In addition, it categorized women in a way that was quite consistent with the categorization that occurred using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system; the 2 methods identified similar percentages of women with and without fractures in each of their 3 categories, but the 2 identified only in part the same women. Nevertheless, combining our composite probability model with DXA in a case findings strategy will likely further improve the detection of women at high risk of fragility hip fracture. We conclude that the currently proposed model may be of some use as an alternative to the WHO classification criteria for osteoporosis, at least when access to DXA is limited.

Soins intégrés: comment accompagner un changement de culture [Integrated care: how to support a culture change?].

The primary care center at Lausanne University Hospital trains residents to new models of integrated care. The future GPs discover new forms of collaboration with nurses, pharmacists or social workers. The collaboration model includes seeing patients together or delegating care to other providers, with the aim of improving the efficiency of a patient-centered care approach. The article includes examples of integrated care in consultation for travelers, victims of violence, pharmacist medication adherence counseling, medicosocial team work for alcohol use disorders and nurse practitioners' primary care for asylum seekers.

Harmonization ofsignificant environmental aspects and their risk assessment in UPM paper and pulp mills

Työn tavoite onharmonisoida yhtenäiset rakenteet UPM:n paperi- ja sellutehtaiden merkittävilleympäristönäkökohdille sekä niiden ympäristöriskienhallintajärjestelmille. Näin saavutetaan yhteneväiset tavoitteet ja analysointikeinot yrityksen yksiköille. Harmonisointiprosessi on osa koko yrityksen ympäristöhallintajärjestelmän kehittämistä. Ja konsernin EMS -prosessi puolestaan konvergoi konsernin integroidun johtamisjärjestelmän kehitystä. Lisäksi työn tapaustutkimuksessa selvitettiin riskienhallintajärjestelmien integroitumispotentiaalia. Sen avulla saavutettaisiin paremmin suuren yrityksen synergia-etuja ja vuorovaikutteisuutta toimijoiden kesken, sekä parannettaisiin riskienhallintajärjestelmän mukautuvuutta ja käytettävyyttä. Työssä käsitellään kolmea esimerkkiä, joiden pohjalta tehdään esitys harmonisoiduille merkittäville ympäristönäkökohdille sekä riskienhallintajärjestelmien parametreille. Tutkimusongelmaa lähestytään haastattelujen, kirjallisuuden, yrityksen PWC:llä teettämän selvityksen sekä omien päätelmien avulla. Lisäksi työssä esitetään ympäristöhallintajärjestelmän tehokkuuden todentaminen ympäristösuorituskyvyn muuttujiin suhteutettuna. Pohjana jatkuvan kehityksen päämäärälle on organisaatio-oppiminen, niin yksittäisen työntekijän, tiimien kuin eri yksiköiden kesken. Se antaa sysäyksen aineettoman omaisuuden, kuten ympäristö-osaamisen, hyödyntämiseen parhaalla mahdollisella tavalla. Tärkeimpinä lopputuloksina työssä ovat ehdotukset harmonisoiduille merkittäville ympäristönäkökohdille sekä ympäristöriskienhallintajärjestelmän määritetyille komponenteille. Niitä ovat määritelmät ja skaalat riskien todennäköisyydelle, seurauksille sekä riskiluokille. Työn viimeisenä osana luodaan pohja tapaustutkimuksen avulla Rauman tehtaan jätevedenpuhdistamon kahden erilaisen riskienhallintajärjestelmän integroitumiselle.

Validation of a model to predict adverse outcomes in patients with pulmonary embolism.

AIMS: To validate a model for quantifying the prognosis of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). The model was previously derived from 10 534 US patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We validated the model in 367 patients prospectively diagnosed with PE at 117 European emergency departments. We used baseline data for the model's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V). We compared 90-day mortality within each risk class and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between the validation and the original derivation samples. We also assessed the rate of recurrent venous thrombo-embolism and major bleeding within each risk class. Mortality was 0% in Risk Class I, 1.0% in Class II, 3.1% in Class III, 10.4% in Class IV, and 24.4% in Class V and did not differ between the validation and the original derivation samples. The area under the curve was larger in the validation sample (0.87 vs. 0.78, P=0.01). No patients in Classes I and II developed recurrent thrombo-embolism or major bleeding. CONCLUSION: The model accurately stratifies patients with PE into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other relevant complications. Patients in Risk Classes I and II are at low risk of adverse outcomes and are potential candidates for outpatient treatment.

Use of anisotropic modelling in electrical impedance tomography: description of method and preliminary assessment of utility in imaging brain function in the adult human head.

Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) is an imaging method which enables a volume conductivity map of a subject to be produced from multiple impedance measurements. It has the potential to become a portable non-invasive imaging technique of particular use in imaging brain function. Accurate numerical forward models may be used to improve image reconstruction but, until now, have employed an assumption of isotropic tissue conductivity. This may be expected to introduce inaccuracy, as body tissues, especially those such as white matter and the skull in head imaging, are highly anisotropic. The purpose of this study was, for the first time, to develop a method for incorporating anisotropy in a forward numerical model for EIT of the head and assess the resulting improvement in image quality in the case of linear reconstruction of one example of the human head. A realistic Finite Element Model (FEM) of an adult human head with segments for the scalp, skull, CSF, and brain was produced from a structural MRI. Anisotropy of the brain was estimated from a diffusion tensor-MRI of the same subject and anisotropy of the skull was approximated from the structural information. A method for incorporation of anisotropy in the forward model and its use in image reconstruction was produced. The improvement in reconstructed image quality was assessed in computer simulation by producing forward data, and then linear reconstruction using a sensitivity matrix approach. The mean boundary data difference between anisotropic and isotropic forward models for a reference conductivity was 50%. Use of the correct anisotropic FEM in image reconstruction, as opposed to an isotropic one, corrected an error of 24 mm in imaging a 10% conductivity decrease located in the hippocampus, improved localisation for conductivity changes deep in the brain and due to epilepsy by 4-17 mm, and, overall, led to a substantial improvement on image quality. This suggests that incorporation of anisotropy in numerical models used for image reconstruction is likely to improve EIT image quality.

Advertising in Mobile Games - A Business Model Evaluation

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää kuinka houkuttelevan liiketoimintamahdollisuuden mobiilipelit tarjoavat mainostusalustana. Tutkimus suoritettiin tapaustutkimuksena. Tutkimus aloitettiin määrittelemällä liiketoimintamalli, jonka jälkeen suoritettiin yleinen katsaus Suomen mobiilipelimarkkinoille. Tämän jälkeen arvoketju-, arvoverkko- sekä markkina-analyysin avulla selvitettiin liiketoimintamallin mahdollisuudet sekä rajoitukset. Tutkimukseen käytettiinteorettista viitekehystä joka pohjautui Hamelin liiketoimintamalliin, Porterin arvoketjuun sekä Alleenin arvoverkoon. Tutkimuksen tuloksena todettiin, että mainostaminen mobiilipeleissä tarjoaa liiketoimintamahdollisuuden ilman esteitä sentoteuttamiselle. Suomalaiset mobiilipelimarkkinat ovat kuitenkin pirstoutuneet,minkä johdosta tutkittu 'mainosten hallinta-alusta'-liiketoimintamalli aiheuttaa liian suuret integraatiokustannukset. Myös suuri määrä pelitoimittajia heikentää mallin tehokkuutta.

Local alignment refinement using structural assessment.

Homology modeling is the most commonly used technique to build a three-dimensional model for a protein sequence. It heavily relies on the quality of the sequence alignment between the protein to model and related proteins with a known three dimensional structure. Alignment quality can be assessed according to the physico-chemical properties of the three dimensional models it produces.In this work, we introduce fifteen predictors designed to evaluate the properties of the models obtained for various alignments. They consist of an energy value obtained from different force fields (CHARMM, ProsaII or ANOLEA) computed on residue selected around misaligned regions. These predictors were evaluated on ten challenging test cases. For each target, all possible ungapped alignments are generated and their corresponding models are computed and evaluated.The best predictor, retrieving the structural alignment for 9 out of 10 test cases, is based on the ANOLEA atomistic mean force potential and takes into account residues around misaligned secondary structure elements. The performance of the other predictors is significantly lower. This work shows that substantial improvement in local alignments can be obtained by careful assessment of the local structure of the resulting models.

Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

Applying the principles of life cycle assessment and costing in process modeling to examine profit-making capability

Static process simulation has traditionally been used to model complex processes for various purposes. However, the use of static processsimulators for the preparation of holistic examinations aiming at improving profit-making capability requires a lot of work because the production of results requires the assessment of the applicability of detailed data which may be irrelevant to the objective. The relevant data for the total assessment gets buried byirrelevant data. Furthermore, the models do not include an examination of the maintenance or risk management, and economic examination is often an extra property added to them which can be performed with a spreadsheet program. A process model applicable to holistic economic examinations has been developed in this work. The model is based on the life cycle profit philosophy developed by Hagberg and Henriksson in 1996. The construction of the model has utilized life cycle assessment and life cycle costing methodologies with a view to developing, above all, a model which would be applicable to the economic examinations of complete wholes and which would require the need for information focusing on aspects essential to the objectives. Life cycle assessment and costing differ from each other in terms of the modeling principles, but the features of bothmethodologies can be used in the development of economic process modeling. Methods applicable to the modeling of complex processes can be examined from the viewpoint of life cycle methodologies, because they involve the collection and management of large corpuses of information and the production of information for the needs of decision-makers as well. The results of the study shows that on the basis of the principles of life cycle modeling, a process model can be created which may be used to produce holistic efficiency examinations on the profit-making capability of the production line, with fewer resources thanwith traditional methods. The calculations of the model are based to the maximum extent on the information system of the factory, which means that the accuracyof the results can be improved by developing information systems so that they can provide the best information for this kind of examinations.

Impacts of upland open drains upon runoff generation: a numerical assessment of catchment-scale impacts

Shallow upland drains, grips, have been hypothesized as responsible for increased downstream flow magnitudes. Observations provide counterfactual evidence, often relating to the difficulty of inferring conclusions from statistical correlation and paired catchment comparisons, and the complexity of designing field experiments to test grip impacts at the catchment scale. Drainage should provide drier antecedent moisture conditions, providing more storage at the start of an event; however, grips have higher flow velocities than overland flow, thus potentially delivering flow more rapidly to the drainage network. We develop and apply a model for assessing the impacts of grips on flow hydrographs. The model was calibrated on the gripped case, and then the gripped case was compared with the intact case by removing all grips. This comparison showed that even given parameter uncertainty, the intact case had significantly higher flood peaks and lower baseflows, mirroring field observations of the hydrological response of intact peat. The simulations suggest that this is because delivery effects may not translate into catchment-scale impacts for three reasons. First, in our case, the proportions of flow path lengths that were hillslope were not changed significantly by gripping. Second, the structure of the grip network as compared with the structure of the drainage basin mitigated against grip-related increases in the concentration of runoff in the drainage network, although it did marginally reduce the mean timing of that concentration at the catchment outlet. Third, the effect of the latter upon downstream flow magnitudes can only be assessed by reference to the peak timing of other tributary basins, emphasizing that drain effects are both relative and scale dependent. However, given the importance of hillslope flow paths, we show that if upland drainage causes significant changes in surface roughness on hillslopes, then critical and important feedbacks may impact upon the speed of hydrological response. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.