Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

Spatial variability of physical attributes of an alfisol under different hillslope curvatures

The influence of relief forms has been studied by several authors and explains the variability in the soil attributes of a landscape. Soil physical attributes depend on relief forms, and their assessment is important in mechanized agricultural systems, such as of sugarcane. This study aimed to characterize the spatial variability in the physical soil attributes and their relationship to the hillslope curvatures in an Alfisol developed from sandstone and growing sugarcane. Grids of 100 x 100 m were delimited in a convex and a concave area. The grids had a regular spacing of 10 x 10 m, and the crossing points of this spacing determined a total of 121 georeferenced sampling points. Samples were collected to determine the physical attributes related to soil aggregates, porosity, bulk density, resistance to penetration and moisture within the 0-0.2 and 0.2-0.4 m depth. Statistical analyses, geostatistics and Student's t-tests were performed with the means of the areas. All attributes, except aggregates > 2 mm in the 0-0.2 m depth and macroporosity at both depths, showed significant differences between the hillslope curvatures. The convex area showed the highest values of the mean weighted diameter, mean geometric diameter, aggregates > 2 mm, 1-2 mm aggregates, total porosity and moisture and lower values of bulk density and resistance to penetration in both depth compared to the concave area. The number of soil attributes with greater spatial variability was higher in the concave area.

Pedotransfer functions related to spatial variability of water retention attributes for lowland soils

The estimation of non available soil variables through the knowledge of other related measured variables can be achieved through pedotransfer functions (PTF) mainly saving time and reducing cost. Great differences among soils, however, can yield non desirable results when applying this method. This study discusses the application of developed PTFs by several authors using a variety of soils of different characteristics, to evaluate soil water contents of two Brazilian lowland soils. Comparisons are made between PTF evaluated data and field measured data, using statistical and geostatistical tools, like mean error, root mean square error, semivariogram, cross-validation, and regression coefficient. The eight tested PTFs to evaluate gravimetric soil water contents (Ug) at the tensions of 33 kPa and 1,500 kPa presented a tendency to overestimate Ug 33 kPa and underestimate Ug1,500 kPa. The PTFs were ranked according to their performance and also with respect to their potential in describing the structure of the spatial variability of the set of measured values. Although none of the PTFs have changed the distribution pattern of the data, all resulted in mean and variance statistically different from those observed for all measured values. The PTFs that presented the best predictive values of Ug33 kPa and Ug1,500 kPa were not the same that had the best performance to reproduce the structure of spatial variability of these variables.

Temporal variability of soil water content under different surface conditions in the semiarid region of the Pernambuco state

Rainfall in the semiarid region of Pernambuco is characterized by irregular distribution in time and space, which significantly hinders the rainfed agriculture in the region. This work aims to evaluate the temporal profile of soil moisture in the semiarid region of the Pernambuco State (Brazil) and the effect of different soil surface conditions on soil water content variation and the yield of rainfed beans. To monitor soil water content, five plots 4.5 m wide by 11 m long were installed in a Yellow Argisol (Ultisol). The following treatments were adopted in the experimental plots: natural vegetation, bean intercropped with cactus, beans planted down the slope, beans planted along contour lines with mulch and rock barriers, and bare soil. In each plot, eight PVC access tubes were installed for monitoring the soil water content profile at depths of 0.20 and 0.40 m using a neutron probe device. The surface condition significantly influenced the soil water content variation, both in the dry and rainy seasons. The use of mulch, associated with rock barriers, provided higher soil water content levels than the other treatments and increased the rainfed beans production.

A joint back calculation model for the imputation of the date of HIV infection in a prevalent cohort.

In studies of the natural history of HIV-1 infection, the time scale of primary interest is the time since infection. Unfortunately, this time is very often unknown for HIV infection and using the follow-up time instead of the time since infection is likely to provide biased results because of onset confounding. Laboratory markers such as the CD4 T-cell count carry important information concerning disease progression and can be used to predict the unknown date of infection. Previous work on this topic has made use of only one CD4 measurement or based the imputation on incident patients only. However, because of considerable intrinsic variability in CD4 levels and because incident cases are different from prevalent cases, back calculation based on only one CD4 determination per person or on characteristics of the incident sub-cohort may provide unreliable results. Therefore, we propose a methodology based on the repeated individual CD4 T-cells marker measurements that use both incident and prevalent cases to impute the unknown date of infection. Our approach uses joint modelling of the time since infection, the CD4 time path and the drop-out process. This methodology has been applied to estimate the CD4 slope and impute the unknown date of infection in HIV patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A procedure based on the comparison of different slope estimates is proposed to assess the goodness of fit of the imputation. Results of simulation studies indicated that the imputation procedure worked well, despite the intrinsic high volatility of the CD4 marker.

Predicting the growth response to thinning for Scots pine stands using individual-tree growth models

Summary

Implications of the variability in soil penetration resistance for statistical analysis

Soil penetration resistance (PR) is a measure of soil compaction closely related to soil structure and plant growth. However, the variability in PR hampers the statistical analyses. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of soil PR on the efficiency of parametric and nonparametric analyses in indentifying significant effects of soil compaction and to classify the coefficient of variation of PR into low, medium, high and very high. On six dates, the PR of a typical dystrophic Red Ultisol under continuous no-tillage for 16 years was measured. Three tillage and/or traffic conditions were established with the application of: (i) no chiseling or additional traffic, (ii) additional compaction, and (iii) chiseling. On each date, the nineteen PR data (measured at every 1.5 cm to a depth of 28.5 cm) were grouped in layers with different thickness. In each layer, the treatment effects were evaluated by variance (ANOVA) and Kruskal-Wallis analyses in a completely randomized design, and the coefficients of variation of all analyses were classified (low, intermediate, high and very high). The ANOVA performed better in discriminating the compaction effects, but the rejection rate of null hypothesis decreased from 100 to 80 % when the coefficient of variation increased from 15 to 26 %. The values of 15 and 26 % were the thresholds separating the low/intermediate and the high/very high coefficient variation classes of PR in this Ultisol.

Individual-tree basal area growth models for scots pine, pubescent birch and Norway spruce on drained peatlands in Finland

Summary

High-precision satellite positioning system as a new tool to study the biomechanics of human locomotion.

New Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers allow now to measure a location on earth at high frequency (5Hz) with a centimetric precision using phase differential positioning method. We studied whether such technique was accurate enough to retrieve basic parameters of human locomotion. Eight subjects walked on an athletics track at four different imposed step frequencies (70-130steps/min) plus a run at free pace. Differential carrier phase localization between a fixed base station and the mobile antenna mounted on the walking person was calculated. In parallel, a triaxial accelerometer, attached to the low back, recorded body accelerations. The different parameters were averaged for 150 consecutive steps of each run for each subject (total of 6000 steps analyzed). We observed a perfect correlation between average step duration measured by accelerometer and by GPS (r=0.9998, N=40). Two important parameters for the calculation of the external work of walking were also analyzed, namely the vertical lift of the trunk and the velocity variation per step. For an average walking speed of 4.0km/h, average vertical lift and velocity variation were, respectively, 4.8cm and 0.60km/h. The average intra-individual step-to-step variability at a constant speed, which includes GPS errors and the biological gait style variation, were found to be 24. 5% (coefficient of variation) for vertical lift and 44.5% for velocity variation. It is concluded that GPS technique can provide useful biomechanical parameters for the analysis of an unlimited number of strides in an unconstrained free-living environment.

Genome-wide association and longitudinal analyses reveal genetic loci linking pubertal height growth, pubertal timing and childhood adiposity.

The pubertal height growth spurt is a distinctive feature of childhood growth reflecting both the central onset of puberty and local growth factors. Although little is known about the underlying genetics, growth variability during puberty correlates with adult risks for hormone-dependent cancer and adverse cardiometabolic health. The only gene so far associated with pubertal height growth, LIN28B, pleiotropically influences childhood growth, puberty and cancer progression, pointing to shared underlying mechanisms. To discover genetic loci influencing pubertal height and growth and to place them in context of overall growth and maturation, we performed genome-wide association meta-analyses in 18 737 European samples utilizing longitudinally collected height measurements. We found significant associations (P < 1.67 × 10(-8)) at 10 loci, including LIN28B. Five loci associated with pubertal timing, all impacting multiple aspects of growth. In particular, a novel variant correlated with expression of MAPK3, and associated both with increased prepubertal growth and earlier menarche. Another variant near ADCY3-POMC associated with increased body mass index, reduced pubertal growth and earlier puberty. Whereas epidemiological correlations suggest that early puberty marks a pathway from rapid prepubertal growth to reduced final height and adult obesity, our study shows that individual loci associating with pubertal growth have variable longitudinal growth patterns that may differ from epidemiological observations. Overall, this study uncovers part of the complex genetic architecture linking pubertal height growth, the timing of puberty and childhood obesity and provides new information to pinpoint processes linking these traits.

Mineralogy of the clay fraction of Alfisols in two slope curvatures: III - spatial variability

A good knowledge of the spatial distribution of clay minerals in the landscape facilitates the understanding of the influence of relief on the content and crystallographic attributes of soil minerals such as goethite, hematite, kaolinite and gibbsite. This study aimed at describing the relationships between the mineral properties of the clay fraction and landscape shapes by determining the mineral properties of goethite, hematite, kaolinite and gibbsite, and assessing their dependence and spatial variability, in two slope curvatures. To this end, two 100 × 100 m grids were used to establish a total of 121 regularly spaced georeferenced sampling nodes 10 m apart. Samples were collected from the layer 0.0-0.2 m and analysed for iron oxides, and kaolinite and gibbsite in the clay fraction. Minerals in the clay fraction were characterized from their X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns, which were interpreted and used to calculate the width at half height (WHH) and mean crystallite dimension (MCD) of iron oxides, kaolinite, and gibbsite, as well as aluminium substitution and specific surface area (SSA) in hematite and goethite. Additional calculations included the goethite and hematite contents, and the goethite/(goethite+hematite) [Gt/(Gt+Hm)] and kaolinite/(kaolinite+gibbsite) [Kt/(Kt+Gb)] ratios. Mineral properties were established by statistical analysis of the XRD data, and spatial dependence was assessed geostatistically. Mineralogical properties differed significantly between the convex area and concave area. The geostatistical analysis showed a greater number of mineralogical properties with spatial dependence and a higher range in the convex than in the concave area.