990 resultados para Importance sampling
Resumo:
Purpose: To evaluate adherence to prescribed antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) in children with epilepsy using a combination of adherence-assessment methods.
Methods: A total of 100 children with epilepsy (=17 years old) were recruited. Medication adherence was determined via parental and child self-reporting (=9 years old), medication refill data from general practitioner (GP) prescribing records, and via AED concentrations in dried blood spot (DBS) samples obtained from children at the clinic and via self- or parental-led sampling in children's own homes. The latter were assessed using population pharmacokinetic modeling. Patients were deemed nonadherent if any of these measures were indicative of nonadherence with the prescribed treatment. In addition, beliefs about medicines, parental confidence in seizure management, and the presence of depressed mood in parents were evaluated to examine their association with nonadherence in the participating children.
Key Findings: The overall rate of nonadherence in children with epilepsy was 33%. Logistic regression analysis indicated that children with generalized epilepsy (vs. focal epilepsy) were more likely (odds ratio [OR] 4.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37-15.81) to be classified as nonadherent as were children whose parents have depressed mood (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.16-11.41).
Significance: This is the first study to apply the novel methodology of determining adherence via AED concentrations in clinic and home DBS samples. The present findings show that the latter, with further development, could be a useful approach to adherence assessment when combined with other measures including parent and child self-reporting. Seizure type and parental depressed mood were strongly predictive of nonadherence. © 2013 International League Against Epilepsy.
Key Words: Adherence, Epilepsy, Dried blood spots, MARS, Depressed mood.
Resumo:
We predicted that the probability of egg occurrence of salamander Salamandrina perspicillata depended on stream features and predation by native crayfish Austropotamobius fulcisianus and the introduced trout Salmo trutta. We assessed the presence of S. perspicillata at 54 sites within a natural reserve of southern Tuscany, Italy. Generalized linear models with binomial errors were constructed using egg presence/absence and altitude, stream mean size and slope, electrical conductivity, water pH and temperature, and a predation factor, defined according to the presence/absence of crayfish and trout. Some competing models also included an autocovariate term, which estimated how much the response variable at any one sampling point reflected response values at surrounding points. The resulting models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Model selection led to a subset of 14 models with Delta AIC(c) <7 (i.e., models ranging from substantial support to considerably less support), and all but one of these included an effect of predation. Models with the autocovariate term had considerably more support than those without the term. According to multimodel inference, the presence of trout and crayfish reduced the probability of egg occurrence from a mean level of 0.90 (SE limits: 0.98-0.55) to 0.12 (SE limits: 0.34-0.04). The presence of crayfish alone had no detectable effects (SE limits: 0.86-0.39). The results suggest that introduced trout have a detrimental effect on the reproductive output of S. perspicillata and confirm the fundamental importance of distinguishing the roles of endogenous and exogenous forces that act on population distribution.
Resumo:
Biotic communities in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are relatively simple and often lack higher trophic levels (e. g. predators); thus, it is often assumed that species' distributions are mainly affected by abiotic factors such as climatic conditions, which change with increasing latitude, altitude and/or distance from the coast. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that factors other than geographical gradients affect the distribution of organisms with low dispersal capability such as the terrestrial arthropods. In Victoria Land (East Antarctica) the distribution of springtail (Collembola) and mite (Acari) species vary at scales that range from a few square centimetres to regional and continental. Different species show different scales of variation that relate to factors such as local geological and glaciological history, and biotic interactions, but only weakly with latitudinal/altitudinal gradients. Here, we review the relevant literature and outline more appropriate sampling designs as well as suitable modelling techniques (e. g. linear mixed models and eigenvector mapping), that will more adequately address and identify the range of factors responsible for the distribution of terrestrial arthropods in Antarctica.
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This chapter sets out to explain the factors behind Ireland's exceptional period of economic growth from the early 1990s to the mid 2000s. It suggests that an unbending commitment to economic openness and an on-going effort to establish quality domestic institutions were the main drivers of the so-called ‘Celtic tiger’ phenomenon. The commitment to economic openness manifested itself in the relentless search for inward investment and a willingness to accept deep forms of European integration. Building domestic institutional capabilities involved adopting new-classical macroeconomic policies, creating a robust system of social partnership and reforming the educational system. The two factors positively interacted with each other to create dynamic effects.
Resumo:
Manipulator motion planning is a task which relies heavily on the construction of a configuration space prior to path planning. However when fast real-time motion is needed, the full construction of the manipulator's high-dimensional configu-ration space can be too slow and expensive. Alternative planning methods, which avoid this full construction of the manipulator's configuration space are needed to solve this problem. Here, one such existing local planning method for manipulators based on configuration-sampling and subgoal-selection has been extended. Using a modified Artificial Potential Fields (APF) function, goal-configuration sampling and a novel subgoal selection method, it provides faster, more optimal paths than the previously proposed work. Simulation results show a decrease in both runtime and path lengths, along with a decrease in unexpected local minimum and crashing issues.
Resumo:
Objective: To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of canrenone following administration of potassium canrenoate (K-canrenoate) in paediatric patients.
Methods: Data were collected prospectively from 37 paediatric patients (median weight 2.9?kg, age range 2 days–0.85 years) who received intravenous K-canrenoate for management of retained fluids, for example in heart failure and chronic lung disease. Dried blood spot (DBS) samples (n?=?213) from these were analysed for canrenone content and the data subjected to pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Another group of patients (n?=?16) who had 71 matching plasma and DBS samples was analysed separately to compare canrenone pharmacokinetic parameters obtained using the two different matrices.
Results: A one-compartment model best described the DBS data. Significant covariates were weight, postmenstrual age (PMA) and gestational age. The final population models for canrenone clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution (V/F) in DBS were CL/F (l/h)?=?12.86?×? (WT/70.0)0.75?×?e [0.066?×? (PMA?-?40]) and V/F (l)?=?603.30?×? (WT/70)?×?(GA/40)1.89 where weight is in kilograms. The corresponding values of CL/F and V/F in a patient with a median weight of 2.9?kg are 1.11?l/h and 20.48?l, respectively. Estimated half-life of canrenone based on DBS concentrations was similar to that based on matched plasma concentrations (19.99 and 19.37?h, respectively, in 70?kg patient).
Conclusion: The range of estimated CL/F in DBS for the study population was 0.12–9.62?l/h; hence, bodyweight-based dosage adjustment of K-canrenoate appears necessary. However, a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and age (PMA/gestational age) of paediatric patients seems more appropriate.
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We examined regurgitates from Black-legged Kittiwakes during the early chick-rearing period over two breeding seasons at two colonies in Ireland where diet has not been studied previously. Clupeids were the dominant food source at both colonies, which contrasts with other studies throughout the British Isles that suggest Kittiwakes feed mainly on sandeels during this period. Our study is limited
by sample size and restricted to the early breeding season, but suggests a link between reproductive success and dietary composition which should be investigated further.
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Mitigation of diffuse nutrient and sediment delivery to streams requires successful identification andmanagement of critical source areas within catchments. Approaches to predicting high risk areas forsediment loss have typically relied on structural drivers of connectivity and risk, with little considera-tion given to process driven water quality responses. To assess the applicability of structural metrics topredict critical source areas, geochemical tracing of land use sources was conducted in three headwateragricultural catchments in Co. Down and Co. Louth, Ireland, within a Monte Carlo framework. Outputswere applied to the inverse optimisation of a connectivity model, based on LiDAR DEM data, to assess theefficacy of land use risk weightings to predict sediment source contributions over the 18 month studyperiod in the Louth Upper, Louth Lower and Down catchments. Results of the study indicated sedimentproportions over the study period varied from 6 to 10%, 84 to 87%, 4%, and 2 to 3% for the Down Catch-ment, 79 to 85%, 9 to 17%, 1 to 3% and 2 to 3% in the Louth Upper and 2 to 3%, 79 to 85%, 10 to 17%and 2 to 3% in the Louth Lower for arable, channel bank, grassland, and woodland sources, respectively.Optimised land use risk weightings for each sampling period showed that at the larger catchment scale,no variation in median land use weightings were required to predict land use contributions. However,for the two smaller study catchments, variation in median risk weightings was considerable, which mayindicate the importance of functional connectivity processes at this spatial scale. In all instances, arableland consistently generated the highest risk of sediment loss across all catchments and sampling times.This study documents some of the first data on sediment provenance in Ireland and indicates the needfor cautious consideration of land use as a tool to predict critical source areas at the headwater scale
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This paper estimates the marginal willingness-to-pay for attributes of a hypothetical HIV vaccine using discrete choice modeling. We use primary data from 326 respondents from Bangkok and Chiang Mai, Thailand, in 2008–2009, selected using purposive, venue-based sampling across two strata. Participants completed a structured questionnaire and full rank discrete choice modeling task administered using computer-assisted personal interviewing. The choice experiment was used to rank eight hypothetical HIV vaccine scenarios, with each scenario comprising seven attributes (including cost) each of which had two levels. The data were analyzed in two alternative specifications: (1) best-worst; and (2) full-rank, using logit likelihood functions estimated with custom routines in Gauss matrix programming language. In the full-rank specification, all vaccine attributes are significant predictors of probability of vaccine choice. The biomedical attributes of the hypothetical HIV vaccine (efficacy, absence of VISP, absence of side effects, and duration of effect) are the most important attributes for HIV vaccine choice. On average respondents are more than twice as likely to accept a vaccine with 99% efficacy, than a vaccine with 50% efficacy. This translates to a willingness to pay US$383 more for a high efficacy vaccine compared with the low efficacy vaccine. Knowledge of the relative importance of determinants of HIV vaccine acceptability is important to ensure the success of future vaccination programs. Future acceptability studies of hypothetical HIV vaccines should use more finely grained biomedical attributes, and could also improve the external validity of results by including more levels of the cost attribute.
Resumo:
Prediction of the impact of suspended sediment on aquatic ecosystems requires adequate knowledge of sediment dynamics in surface waters. Often, studies reporting the response of aquatic biota to suspended sediment are concerned with concentrations, while catchment erosion studies often report sediment delivery as annual loads and yields, making the comparison to documented ecological impacts difficult. Similarly, the European Union Freshwater Fish Directive (FFD) (78/659/EC) stipulates a guideline value of 25mgl which should not be exceeded, with the exception of floods and droughts. In this respect, the significance of suspended sediment in two Irish rivers was assessed using turbidity sensors calibrated for suspended sediment. Sediment yields of 0.07 tonnes (t) hayear and 0.44thayear and annual FFD exceedance frequency of 8.3% and 17.8% were estimated for the two catchments. Contrasts in the frequency of exceedance events between both catchments was observed, yet duration was typically short (