Estimation of sea surface temperatures and salinity of ODP Site 177-1089 (Appendix A)

ODP Site 1089 is optimally located in order to monitor the occurrence of maxima in Agulhas heat and salt spillage from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean. Radiolarian-based paleotemperature transfer functions allowed to reconstruct the climatic history for the last 450 kyr at this location. A warm sea surface temperature anomaly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 was recognized and traced to other oceanic records along the surface branch of the global thermohaline (THC) circulation system, and is particularly marked at locations where a strong interaction between oceanic and atmospheric overturning cells and fronts occurs. This anomaly is absent in the Vostok ice core deuterium, and in oceanic records from the Antarctic Zone. However, it is present in the deuterium excess record from the Vostok ice core, interpreted as reflecting the temperature at the moisture source site for the snow precipitated at Vostok Station. As atmospheric models predict a subtropical Indian source for such moisture, this provides the necessary teleconnection between East Antarctica and ODP Site 1089, as the subtropical Indian is also the source area of the Agulhas Current, the main climate agent at our study location. The presence of the MIS 10 anomaly in the delta13C foraminiferal records from the same core supports its connection to oceanic mechanisms, linking stronger Agulhas spillover intensity to increased productivity in the study area. We suggest, in analogy to modern oceanographic observations, this to be a consequence of a shallow nutricline, induced by eddy mixing and baroclinic tide generation, which are in turn connected to the flow geometry, and intensity, of the Agulhas Current as it flows past the Agulhas Bank. We interpret the intensified inflow of Agulhas Current to the South Atlantic as responding to the switch between lower and higher amplitude in the insolation forcing in the Agulhas Current source area. This would result in higher SSTs in the Cape Basin during the glacial MIS 10, due to the release into the South Atlantic of the heat previously accumulating in the subtropical and equatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean. If our explanation for the MIS 10 anomaly in terms of an insolation variability switch is correct, we might expect that a future Agulhas SSST anomaly event will further delay the onset of next glacial age. In fact, the insolation forcing conditions for the Holocene (the current interglacial) are very similar to those present during MIS 11 (the interglacial preceding MIS 10), as both periods are characterized by a low insolation variability for the Agulhas Current source area. Natural climatic variability will force the Earth system in the same direction as the anthropogenic global warming trend, and will thus lead to even warmer than expected global temperatures in the near future.

Surface temperature reconstruction using alkenones from sediment core B0406 retreived in the Peru upwelling area

We reconstructed a high-resolution, alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) record spanning the last ca. 150 years, from a sediment core retrieved within the main upwelling zone off Peru. A conspicuous SST decline is evidenced since the 1950s despite interdecadal SST variability. Instrumental SST data and reanalysis of ECMWF ERA 40 winds suggest that the recent coastal cooling corresponds mainly to an intensification of alongshore winds and associated increase of upwelling in spring. Consistently, both proxy and instrumental data evidence increased productivity in phase with the SST cooling. Our data expand on previous reports on recent SST cooling in other Eastern Boundary upwelling systems and support scenarios that relate coastal upwelling intensification to global warming. Yet, further investigations are needed to assess the role of different mechanisms and forcings (enhanced local winds vs. spin-up of the South Pacific High Pressure cell).

(Table S1) Chronostratigraphic constrains for sediment core AND1-1B

Thirty years after oxygen isotope records from microfossils deposited in ocean sediments confirmed the hypothesis that variations in the Earth's orbital geometry control the ice ages (Hays et al., 1976, doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121), fundamental questions remain over the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to orbital cycles (Raymo and Huybers, 2008, doi:10.1038/nature06589). Furthermore, an understanding of the behaviour of the marine-based West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) during the 'warmer-than-present' early-Pliocene epoch (~5-3 Myr ago) is needed to better constrain the possible range of ice-sheet behaviour in the context of future global warming (Solomon et al., 2007). Here we present a marine glacial record from the upper 600 m of the AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the northwest part of the Ross ice shelf by the ANDRILL programme and demonstrate well-dated, ~40-kyr cyclic variations in ice-sheet extent linked to cycles in insolation influenced by changes in the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) during the Pliocene. Our data provide direct evidence for orbitally induced oscillations in the WAIS, which periodically collapsed, resulting in a switch from grounded ice, or ice shelves, to open waters in the Ross embayment when planetary temperatures were up to ~3° C warmer than today ( Kim and Crowley, 2000, doi:10.1029/1999PA000459) and atmospheric CO2 concentration was as high as ~400 p.p.m.v. (van der Burgh et al., 1993, doi:10.1126/science.260.5115.1788, Raymo et al., 1996, doi:10.1016/0377-8398(95)00048-8). The evidence is consistent with a new ice-sheet/ice-shelf model (Pollard and DeConto, 2009, doi:10.1038/nature07809) that simulates fluctuations in Antarctic ice volume of up to +7 m in equivalent sea level associated with the loss of the WAIS and up to +3 m in equivalent sea level from the East Antarctic ice sheet, in response to ocean-induced melting paced by obliquity. During interglacial times, diatomaceous sediments indicate high surface-water productivity, minimal summer sea ice and air temperatures above freezing, suggesting an additional influence of surface melt (Huybers, 2006, doi:10.1126/science.1125249) under conditions of elevated CO2.

Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment Modeling Approaches for Transboundary Energy Feedstocks

The rise of the twenty-first century has seen the further increase in the industrialization of Earth’s resources, as society aims to meet the needs of a growing population while still protecting our environmental and natural resources. The advent of the industrial bioeconomy – which encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and their conversion into food, feed, and bio-based products – is seen as an important step in transition towards sustainable development and away from fossil fuels. One sector of the industrial bioeconomy which is rapidly being expanded is the use of biobased feedstocks in electricity production as an alternative to coal, especially in the European Union.

As bioeconomy policies and objectives increasingly appear on political agendas, there is a growing need to quantify the impacts of transitioning from fossil fuel-based feedstocks to renewable biological feedstocks. Specifically, there is a growing need to conduct a systems analysis and potential risks of increasing the industrial bioeconomy, given that the flows within it are inextricably linked. Furthermore, greater analysis is needed into the consequences of shifting from fossil fuels to renewable feedstocks, in part through the use of life cycle assessment modeling to analyze impacts along the entire value chain.

To assess the emerging nature of the industrial bioeconomy, three objectives are addressed: (1) quantify the global industrial bioeconomy, linking the use of primary resources with the ultimate end product; (2) quantify the impacts of the expaning wood pellet energy export market of the Southeastern United States; (3) conduct a comparative life cycle assessment, incorporating the use of dynamic life cycle assessment, of replacing coal-fired electricity generation in the United Kingdom with wood pellets that are produced in the Southeastern United States.

To quantify the emergent industrial bioeconomy, an empirical analysis was undertaken. Existing databases from multiple domestic and international agencies was aggregated and analyzed in Microsoft Excel to produce a harmonized dataset of the bioeconomy. First-person interviews, existing academic literature, and industry reports were then utilized to delineate the various intermediate and end use flows within the bioeconomy. The results indicate that within a decade, the industrial use of agriculture has risen ten percent, given increases in the production of bioenergy and bioproducts. The underlying resources supporting the emergent bioeconomy (i.e., land, water, and fertilizer use) were also quantified and included in the database.

Following the quantification of the existing bioeconomy, an in-depth analysis of the bioenergy sector was conducted. Specifically, the focus was on quantifying the impacts of the emergent wood pellet export sector that has rapidly developed in recent years in the Southeastern United States. A cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment was conducted in order to quantify supply chain impacts from two wood pellet production scenarios: roundwood and sawmill residues. For reach of the nine impact categories assessed, wood pellet production from sawmill residues resulted in higher values, ranging from 10-31% higher.

The analysis of the wood pellet sector was then expanded to include the full life cycle (i.e., cradle-to-grave). In doing to, the combustion of biogenic carbon and the subsequent timing of emissions were assessed by incorporating dynamic life cycle assessment modeling. Assuming immediate carbon neutrality of the biomass, the results indicated an 86% reduction in global warming potential when utilizing wood pellets as compared to coal for electricity production in the United Kingdom. When incorporating the timing of emissions, wood pellets equated to a 75% or 96% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, depending upon whether the forestry feedstock was considered to be harvested or planted in year one, respectively.

Finally, a policy analysis of renewable energy in the United States was conducted. Existing coal-fired power plants in the Southeastern United States were assessed in terms of incorporating the co-firing of wood pellets. Co-firing wood pellets with coal in existing Southeastern United States power stations would result in a nine percent reduction in global warming potential.

Structure et évolution du pergélisol depuis le Pléistocène Tardif, Beaver Creek, Yukon

Le site routier expérimental de Beaver Creek (62º 20’ 20’’ N – 140º 50’ 10’’ O) est sis sur la moraine de Beaver Creek pré datant le Dernier Maximum Glaciaire. Dans un périmètre d’un kilomètre carré, son relief, sa végétation, son sol et sa cryostratigraphie ont été étudiés avec une perspective géosystémique, afin d’en détailler la catena et sa structure. Ensuite, la cryostratigraphie a été interprétée pour suggérer un modèle d’évolution du paysage. Enfin, les changements récents y ont été intégrés en vue d’actualiser la tendance évolutive du géosystème. Il ressort de cet ouvrage que la durabilité du pergélisol est fortement appuyée par la présence des milieux humides dans les replats. Quelques affleurements de la moraine sont toujours visibles, quoique faiblement exprimés. Ils contiennent peu de glace et leur teneur en matière organique est mince. Quant aux dépressions, elles sont peu profondes et étendues. Non seulement elles ont hérité des sédiments érodés des crêtes, mais elles ont aussi fixé une quantité importante de glace et de matière organique par le truchement d’un pergélisol syngénétique (>15 m) généré par le climat et protégé par l’écosystème. Au moins un évènement de thermo-érosion est survenu avant le dernier stade d’aggradation syngénétique (Holocène), mais il n’a été que partiel. L’actuel réchauffement climatique menace d’engager un autre épisode de dégradation à l’échelle du bassin versant. Contrairement au changement climatique, l’utilisation du territoire provoque déjà la dégradation du pergélisol, mais de manière localisée seulement.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with postlarvae of barnacle of Semibalanus balanoides and Elminius modestus, 2010

Ocean acidification and global warming are occurring concomitantly, yet few studies have investigated how organisms will respond to increases in both temperature and CO2. Intertidal microcosms were used to examine growth, shell mineralogy and survival of two intertidal barnacle post-larvae, Semibalanus balanoides and Elminius modestus, at two temperatures (14 and 19°C) and two CO2 concentrations (380 and 1,000 ppm), fed with a mixed diatom-flagellate diet at 15,000 cells ml-1 with flow rate of 10 ml-1 min-1. Control growth rates, using operculum diameter, were 14 ± 8 µm day-1 and 6 ± 2 µm day-1 for S. balanoides and E. modestus, respectively. Subtle, but significant decreases in E. modestus growth rate were observed in high CO2 but there were no impacts on shell calcium content and survival by either elevated temperature or CO2. S. balanoides exhibited no clear alterations in growth rate but did show a large reduction in shell calcium content and survival under elevated temperature and CO2. These results suggest that a decrease by 0.4 pH(NBS) units alone would not be sufficient to directly impact the survival of barnacles during the first month post-settlement. However, in conjunction with a 4-5°C increase in temperature, it appears that significant changes to the biology of these organisms will ensue.

Nitrogen fixation and nitrogen gene abundance of METEOR cruises M77/3 and M77/4

Nitrogen fixation, the biological reduction of dinitrogen gas (N2) to ammonium (NH4+), is quantitatively the most important external source of new nitrogen (N) to the open ocean. Classically, the ecological niche of oceanic N2 fixers (diazotrophs) is ascribed to tropical oligotrophic surface waters, often depleted in fixed N, with a diazotrophic community dominated by cyanobacteria. Although this applies for large areas of the ocean, biogeochemical models and phylogenetic studies suggest that the oceanic diazotrophic niche may be much broader than previously considered, resulting in major implications for the global N-budget. Here, we report on the composition, distribution and abundance of nifH, the functional gene marker for N2 fixation. Our results show the presence of eight clades of diazotrophs in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) off Peru. Although proteobacterial clades dominated overall, two clusters affiliated to spirochaeta and archaea were identified. N2 fixation was detected within OMZ waters and was stimulated by the addition of organic carbon sources supporting the view that non-phototrophic diazotrophs were actively fixing dinitrogen. The observed co-occurrence of key functional genes for N2 fixation, nitrification, anammox and denitrification suggests that a close spatial coupling of N-input and N-loss processes exists in the OMZ off Peru. The wide distribution of diazotrophs throughout the water column adds to the emerging view that the habitat of marine diazotrophs can be extended to low oxygen/high nitrate areas. Furthermore, our statistical analysis suggests that NO2- and PO43- are the major factors affecting diazotrophic distribution throughout the OMZ. In view of the predicted increase in ocean deoxygenation resulting from global warming, our findings indicate that the importance of OMZs as niches for N2 fixation may increase in the futur

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Amphisorus hemprichii, Amphisorus kudakajimensis and Calcarina gaudichaudii during experiments, 2011

Ocean acidification, which like global warming is an outcome of anthropogenic CO2emissions, severely impacts marine calcifying organisms, especially those living in coral reef ecosystems. However, knowledge about the responses of reef calcifiers to ocean acidification is quite limited, although coral responses are known to be generally negative. In a culture experiment with two algal symbiont-bearing, reef-dwelling foraminifers, Amphisorus kudakajimensis and Calcarina gaudichaudii, in seawater under five different pCO2 conditions, 245, 375, 588, 763 and 907 µatm, maintained with a precise pCO2-controlling technique, net calcification of A. kudakajimensis was reduced under higher pCO2, whereas calcification of C. gaudichaudii generally increased with increased pCO2. In another culture experiment conducted in seawater in which bicarbonate ion concentrations were varied under a constant carbonate ion concentration, calcification was not significantly different between treatments in Amphisorus hemprichii, a species closely related to A. kudakajimensis, or in C. gaudichaudii. From these results, we concluded that carbonate ion and CO2 were the carbonate species that most affected growth ofAmphisorus and Calcarina, respectively. The opposite responses of these two foraminifer genera probably reflect different sensitivities to these carbonate species, which may be due to their different symbiotic algae.

Sea ice and wind variability during the Holocene in East Antarctica

A high-resolution continuous record of diatom census counts and diatom specific biomarkers in sediment core NBP0101-JPC24 allows assessment of oceanographic and environmental conditions in eastern Prydz Bay during the deglaciation (11 100-9000 cal yr BP) at decadal timescale. Our study improves previous snapshots investigations based on resin-embedded thin sections and presents a new proxy that compliments the diatom census counts. Our results suggest that the ice sheet retreat over the core site is dated at ~11 100 cal yr BP, setting the onset of local deglaciation and subsequent open marine conditions. The glacial retreat in Prydz Bay is due to global warming initiated at 18 cal ka BP and the regional development of the Prydz Bay cyclonic gyre. Our results further demonstrate that the deglaciation in eastern Prydz Bay can be separated in four phases: the first between 11 100 and 10 900 cal yr BP when the ice shelf was proximal and sea ice was almost perennial; the second and the third phases between 10 900-10 400 cal yr BP and 10 400-9900 cal yr BP, respectively, when the ice shelf retreated and seasonal sea ice cycle consequently developed promoting warmer water to pump into the bay within the gyre, which in turn forced the ice shelf recession and the yearly sea ice cycle establishment; and the fourth between 9900 and 9000 cal yr BP when Holocene condition were set with a recurrent seasonal sea ice cycle and a well established Prydz Bay gyre.

Biogenic particle and biomarker flux from a mooring time-series at AWI HAUSGARTEN

Since 2000 long-term measurements of vertical particle flux have been performed with moored sediment traps at the long-term observatory HAUSGARTEN in the eastern Fram Strait (79°N/4°E). The study area, which is seasonally covered with ice, is located in the confluence zone of the northward flowing warm saline Atlantic water with cold, low salinity water masses of Arctic origin. Current projections suggest that this area is particularly vulnerable to global warming. Total matter fluxes and components thereof (carbonate, particulate organic carbon and nitrogen, biogenic silica, biomarkers) revealed a bimodal seasonal pattern showing elevated sedimentation rates during May/June and August/September. Annual total matter flux (dry weight, DW) at ~ 300 m depth varied between 13 and 32 g/m**2/a during 2000 and 2005. Of this total flux 6-13 % was due to CaCO3, 4-21 % to refractory particulate organic carbon (POC), and 3-8 % to biogenic particulate silica (bPSi). The annual flux of all biogenic components together was almost constant during the period studied (8.5-8.8 g/m**2/a), although this varied from 27 to 67 % of the total annual flux. The fraction was lowest in a year characterized by the longest duration of ice coverage (91 and 70 days for the calendar year and summer season, May-September, respectively). Biomarker analyses revealed that organic matter originating from marine sources was present in excess of terrigenious material in the sedimented matter throughout most of the study period. Fluxes of recognizable phyto- and protozooplankton cells amounted up to 60x106 m**2/d. Diatoms and coccolithophorids were the most abundant organisms. Diatoms, mainly pennate species, dominated during the first years of the investigation. A shift in the composition occurred during the last year when numbers of diatoms declined considerably, leading to a dominance of coccolithoporids. This was also reflected in a decrease in the sedimentation of bPSi. The sedimentation of biogenic matter, however, did not differ from the amount observed during the previous years. Among the larger organisms, pteropods at times contributed significantly to both the total matter and CaCO3, fluxes.

Biogeochemical data from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in a periglacial catchment, West Greenland

Global warming is expected to be most pronounced in the Arctic where permafrost thaw and release of old carbon may provide an important feedback mechanism to the climate system. To better understand and predict climate effects and feedbacks on the cycling of elements within and between ecosystems in northern latitude landscapes, a thorough understanding of the processes related to transport and cycling of elements is required. A fundamental requirement to reach a better process understanding is to have access to high-quality empirical data on chemical concentrations and biotic properties for a wide range of ecosystem domains and functional units (abiotic and biotic pools). The aim of this study is therefore to make one of the most extensive field data sets from a periglacial catchment readily available that can be used both to describe present-day periglacial processes and to improve predictions of the future. Here we present the sampling and analytical methods, field and laboratory equipment and the resulting biogeochemical data from a state-of-the-art whole-ecosystem investigation of the terrestrial and aquatic parts of a lake catchment in the Kangerlussuaq region, West Greenland. This data set allows for the calculation of whole-ecosystem mass balance budgets for a long list of elements, including carbon, nutrients and major and trace metals.

Interpolated maps of pollen percentages in Europe over the last 15,000 years

Aim Palaeoecological reconstructions document past vegetation change with estimates of rapid rates of changing species distribution limits that are often not matched by model simulations of climate-driven vegetation dynamics. Genetic surveys of extant plant populations have yielded new insight into continental vegetation histories, challenging traditional interpretations that had been based on pollen data. Our aim is to examine an updated continental pollen data set from Europe in the light of the new ideas about vegetation dynamics emerging from genetic research and vegetation modelling studies. Location Europe Methods: We use pollen data from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to construct interpolated maps of pollen percentages documenting change in distribution and abundance of major plant genera and the grass family in Europe over the last 15,000 years. Results: Our analyses confirm high rates of postglacial spread with at least 1000 metres per year for Corylus, Ulmus and Alnus and average rates of 400 metres per year for Tilia, Quercus, Fagus and Carpinus. The late Holocene expansions of Picea and Fagus populations in many European regions cannot be explained by migrational lag. Both taxa shift their population centres towards the Atlantic coast suggesting that climate may have played a role in the timing of their expansions. The slowest rates of spread were reconstructed for Abies. Main conclusions: The calculated rates of postglacial plant spread are higher in Europe than those from North America, which may be due to more rapid shifts in climate mediated by the Gulf Stream and westerly winds. Late Holocene anthropogenic land use practices in Europe had major effects on individual taxa, which in combination with climate change contributed to shifts in areas of abundance and dominance. The high rates of spread calculated from the European pollen data are consistent with the common tree species rapidly tracking early Holocene climate change and contribute to the debate on the consequences of global warming for plant distributions.

Isotope analysis and heat flow measurements of Maria S. Merian cruise MSM21/4 on the western Svalbard margin

Methane hydrate is an ice-like substance that is stable at high-pressure and low temperature in continental margin sediments. Since the discovery of a large number of gas flares at the landward termination of the gas hydrate stability zone off Svalbard, there has been concern that warming bottom waters have started to dissociate large amounts of gas hydrate and that the resulting methane release may possibly accelerate global warming. Here, we can corroborate that hydrates play a role in the observed seepage of gas, but we present evidence that seepage off Svalbard has been ongoing for at least three thousand years and that seasonal fluctuations of 1-2°C in the bottom-water temperature cause periodic gas hydrate formation and dissociation, which focus seepage at the observed sites.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with spider crab Hyas araneus, 2009

Future scenarios for the oceans project combined developments of CO2 accumulation and global warming and their impact on marine ecosystems. The synergistic impact of both factors was addressed by studying the effect of elevated CO2 concentrations on thermal tolerance of the cold-eurythermal spider crab Hyas araneus from the population around Helgoland. Here ambient temperatures characterize the southernmost distribution limit of this species. Animals were exposed to present day normocapnia (380 ppm CO2), CO2 levels expected towards 2100 (710 ppm) and beyond (3000 ppm). Heart rate and haemolymph PO2 (PeO2) were measured during progressive short term cooling from 10 to 0°C and during warming from 10 to 25°C. An increase of PeO2 occurred during cooling, the highest values being reached at 0°C under all three CO2 levels. Heart rate increased during warming until a critical temperature (Tc) was reached. The putative Tc under normocapnia was presumably >25°C, from where it fell to 23.5°C under 710 ppm and then 21.1°C under 3000 ppm. At the same time, thermal sensitivity, as seen in the Q10 values of heart rate, rose with increasing CO2concentration in the warmth. Our results suggest a narrowing of the thermal window of Hyas araneus under moderate increases in CO2 levels by exacerbation of the heat or cold induced oxygen and capacity limitation of thermal tolerance.