JULES-crop: a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator

Studies of climate change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere have been completed without recognition of the integrated nature of the biosphere. Improved assessment of the impacts of climate change on food and water security requires the development and use of models not only representing each component but also their interactions. To meet this requirement the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model has been modified to include a generic parametrisation of annual crops. The new model, JULES-crop, is described and evaluation at global and site levels for the four globally important crops; wheat, soybean, maize and rice. JULES-crop demonstrates skill in simulating the inter-annual variations of yield for maize and soybean at the global and country levels, and for wheat for major spring wheat producing countries. The impact of the new parametrisation, compared to the standard configuration, on the simulation of surface heat fluxes is largely an alteration of the partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes during the later part of the growing season. Further evaluation at the site level shows the model captures the seasonality of leaf area index, gross primary production and canopy height better than in the standard JULES. However, this does not lead to an improvement in the simulation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The performance of JULES-crop from both an Earth system and crop yield model perspective is encouraging. However, more effort is needed to develop the parametrisation of the model for specific applications. Key future model developments identified include the introduction of processes such as irrigation and nitrogen limitation which will enable better representation of the spatial variability in yield.

Understanding inter-satellite biases of microwave humidity sounders using global simultaneous nadir overpasses

Simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNOs) of polar-orbiting satellites are most frequent in polar areas but can occur at any latitude when the equatorial crossing times of the satellites become close owing to orbital drift. We use global SNOs of polar orbiting satellites to evaluate the intercalibration of microwave humidity sounders from the more frequent high-latitude SNOs. We have found based on sensitivity analyses that optimal distance and time thresholds for defining collocations are pixel centers less than 5 km apart and time differences less than 300 s. These stringent collocation criteria reduce the impact of highly variable surface or atmospheric conditions on the estimated biases. Uncertainties in the estimated biases are dominated by the combined radiometric noise of the instrument pair. The effects of frequency changes between different versions of the humidity sounders depend on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. There are significant scene radiance and thus latitude dependencies in the estimated biases and this has to taken into account while intercalibrating microwave humidity sounders. Therefore the results obtained using polar SNOs will not be representative for moist regions, necessitating the use of global collocations for reliable intercalibration.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

Alternative diagnostic diagrams and the `forgotten` population of weak line galaxies in the SDSS

A numerous population of weak line galaxies (WLGs) is often left out of statistical studies on emission-line galaxies (ELGs) due to the absence of an adequate classification scheme, since classical diagnostic diagrams, such as [O iii]/H beta versus [N ii]/H alpha (the BPT diagram), require the measurement of at least four emission lines. This paper aims to remedy this situation by transposing the usual divisory lines between star-forming (SF) galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGN) hosts and between Seyferts and LINERs to diagrams that are more economical in terms of line quality requirements. By doing this, we rescue from the classification limbo a substantial number of sources and modify the global census of ELGs. More specifically, (1) we use the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 to constitute a suitable sample of 280 000 ELGs, one-third of which are WLGs. (2) Galaxies with strong emission lines are classified using the widely applied criteria of Kewley et al., Kauffmann et al. and Stasinska et al. to distinguish SF galaxies and AGN hosts and Kewley et al. to distinguish Seyferts from LINERs. (3) We transpose these classification schemes to alternative diagrams keeping [N ii]/H alpha as a horizontal axis, but replacing H beta by a stronger line (H alpha or [O ii]), or substituting the ionization-level sensitive [O iii]/H beta ratio with the equivalent width of H alpha (W(H alpha)). Optimized equations for the transposed divisory lines are provided. (4) We show that nothing significant is lost in the translation, but that the new diagrams allow one to classify up to 50 per cent more ELGs. (5) Introducing WLGs in the census of galaxies in the local Universe increases the proportion of metal-rich SF galaxies and especially LINERs. In the course of this analysis, we were led to make the following points. (i) The Kewley et al. BPT line for galaxy classification is generally ill-used. (ii) Replacing [O iii]/H beta by W(H alpha) in the classification introduces a change in the philosophy of the distinction between LINERs and Seyferts, but not in its results. Because the W(H alpha) versus [N ii]/H alpha diagram can be applied to the largest sample of ELGs without loss of discriminating power between Seyferts and LINERs, we recommend its use in further studies. (iii) The dichotomy between Seyferts and LINERs is washed out by WLGs in the BPT plane, but it subsists in other diagnostic diagrams. This suggests that the right wing in the BPT diagram is indeed populated by at least two classes, tentatively identified with bona fide AGN and `retired` galaxies that have stopped forming stars and are ionized by their old stellar populations.

Nonexistence of global solutions for a class of complex vector fields on two-torus

The goal of this paper is study the global solvability of a class of complex vector fields of the special form L = partial derivative/partial derivative t + (a + ib)(x)partial derivative/partial derivative x, a, b epsilon C(infinity) (S(1) ; R), defined on two-torus T(2) congruent to R(2)/2 pi Z(2). The kernel of transpose operator L is described and the solvability near the characteristic set is also studied. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emergency department triage scales and their components : a systematic review of the scientific evidence

Emergency department (ED) triage is used to identify patients' level of urgency and treat them based on their triage level. The global advancement of triage scales in the past two decades has generated considerable research on the validity and reliability of these scales. This systematic review aims to investigate the scientific evidence for published ED triage scales. The following questions are addressed: 1. Does assessment of individual vital signs or chief complaints affect mortality during the hospital stay or within 30 days after arrival at the ED? 2. What is the level of agreement between clinicians' triage decisions compared to each other or to a gold standard for each scale (reliability)? 3. How valid is each triage scale in predicting hospitalization and hospital mortality? A systematic search of the international literature published from 1966 through March 31, 2009 explored the British Nursing Index, Business Source Premier, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and PubMed. Inclusion was limited to controlled studies of adult patients (≥15 years) visiting EDs for somatic reasons. Outcome variables were death in ED or hospital and need for hospitalization (validity). Methodological quality and clinical relevance of each study were rated as high, medium, or low. The results from the studies that met the inclusion criteria and quality standards were synthesized applying the internationally developed GRADE system. Each conclusion was then assessed as having strong, moderately strong, limited, or insufficient scientific evidence. If studies were not available, this was also noted. We found ED triage scales to be supported, at best, by limited and often insufficient evidence. The ability of the individual vital signs included in the different scales to predict outcome is seldom, if at all, studied in the ED setting. The scientific evidence to assess interrater agreement (reliability) was limited for one triage scale and insufficient or lacking for all other scales. Two of the scales yielded limited scientific evidence, and one scale yielded insufficient evidence, on which to assess the risk of early death or hospitalization in patients assigned to the two lowest triage levels on a 5-level scale (validity).

An analysis of Samoan reaction to The Orator (O Le Tulafale)’s Fāgogo defining Samoan identity

The Orator (O Le Tulafale) was promoted as the first Samoan language film shot in Samoa with a Samoan cast and crew. Written and directed by Samoan filmmaker Tusi Tamasese, the film succeeded at several of the movie industry’s prestigious festivals. The Orator (O Le Tulafale) is about an outcast family of a dwarf (Saili), his wife and her teenage daughter. As the main protagonist, Saili battles to overcome his fears to become a chief to save his family and land. The film’s themes are courage, love, honour , as well as hypocrisy, violence, and discrimination. A backlash by Samoans was predicted ; however, the opposite occurred. This raised the following questions: first, what is it about the film causing this reaction? It is a 106 -minute film shot in Samoa about Samoans and the Samoan culture . D espite promotional claims about the film , there have been Samoan -produced films in Samoa . Secondly, to what are Samoans really responding? Is it 1) just to the film because it is about Samoa, or 2) are they responding to themselves , and how they reacted during the act of watching the film? This implies levels of reactions in the act of watching, and examining the dominant level of response is important. To explore this, t he Samoan story telling technique of Fāgogo was used to analyse the film’s narration and narrative techniques. R. Allen’s (1993, 1997) concept of projected illusion was employed to discuss the relationship between Samoans and the film developed during the act of watching. An examination of the term Samoan and a description of the framework of Fa’a Samoa (Samoan culture) were provided. Also included were discussions of memory and its impact on Samoan cultural identity. The analysis indicated that The Orator (O Le Tulafale) acted as a memory prompt through which Samoans recalled memories confirming and defining cultural bonds. These memories constituted the essence of being Samoan. These memories were awakened, and shared as oral histories as fāgogo. The receivers appeared to interpret the shared memories to create their own memories and stories to suit their contexts, according to Facebook postings. An interpretation is that the organic sharing of memories as fā gogo created a global definition of Samoan that Samoans internationally claimed.

E-learning opens the door to the global community. Novice users experiences of e-learning in a Somali University

E-learning has become one of the primary ways of delivering education around the globe. In Somalia, which is a country torn within and from the global community by a prolonged civil war, University of Hargeisa has in collaboration with Dalarna University in Sweden adopted, for the first time, e-learning. This study explores barriers and facilitators to e-learning usage, experienced by students in Somalia’s higher education, using the University of Hargeisa as case study. Interviews were conducted with students to explore how University of Hargeisa’s novice users perceived elearning, and what factors positively and negatively affected their e-learning experiences. The Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model was used as a framework for interpreting the results. The findings show that, in general, the students have a very positive attitude towards e-learning, and they perceived that e-learning enhanced their educational experience. The communication aspect was found to be especially important for Somali students, as it facilitated a feeling of belonging to the global community of students and scholars and alleviated the war-torn country’s isolation. However, some socio-cultural aspects of students’ communities negatively affected their e-learning experience. This study ends with recommendations based on the empirical findings to promote the use and enhance the experience of e-learning in post conflict Somali educational institutions

Optimization Of Groundwater Remediation With New Efficient Parallel Algorithm For Global Optimization

Application of optimization algorithm to PDE modeling groundwater remediation can greatly reduce remediation cost. However, groundwater remediation analysis requires a computational expensive simulation, therefore, effective parallel optimization could potentially greatly reduce computational expense. The optimization algorithm used in this research is Parallel Stochastic radial basis function. This is designed for global optimization of computationally expensive functions with multiple local optima and it does not require derivatives. In each iteration of the algorithm, an RBF is updated based on all the evaluated points in order to approximate expensive function. Then the new RBF surface is used to generate the next set of points, which will be distributed to multiple processors for evaluation. The criteria of selection of next function evaluation points are estimated function value and distance from all the points known. Algorithms created for serial computing are not necessarily efficient in parallel so Parallel Stochastic RBF is different algorithm from its serial ancestor. The application for two Groundwater Superfund Remediation sites, Umatilla Chemical Depot, and Former Blaine Naval Ammunition Depot. In the study, the formulation adopted treats pumping rates as decision variables in order to remove plume of contaminated groundwater. Groundwater flow and contamination transport is simulated with MODFLOW-MT3DMS. For both problems, computation takes a large amount of CPU time, especially for Blaine problem, which requires nearly fifty minutes for a simulation for a single set of decision variables. Thus, efficient algorithm and powerful computing resource are essential in both cases. The results are discussed in terms of parallel computing metrics i.e. speedup and efficiency. We find that with use of up to 24 parallel processors, the results of the parallel Stochastic RBF algorithm are excellent with speed up efficiencies close to or exceeding 100%.

Governança global e redes globais de políticas públicas: atores brasileiros no cenário das mudanças climáticas

Tendo por base o desenvolvimento sustentável e a mitigação das mudanças climáticas, políticas públicas estão sendo elaboradas para reverter a crescente degradação dos ecossistemas naturais, permitindo novas formas de cooperação na interface global. As recentes tendências da governança indicam que o foco mudou das atividades entre governos para as iniciativas multisetoriais, da governança em nível nacional para a governança em vários níveis internacionais e de um procedimento formal e legalista para uma abordagem mais informal, participativa e integrada, surgindo, como um possível componente dessa nova estrutura, as redes globais de política pública. Os atores brasileiros estão cada vez mais aderindo a essas redes globais de políticas voltadas à redução das mudanças do clima com seus projetos e políticas de desenvolvimento limpo, indicando que modelos estruturais e relacionais como esse podem ser considerados instrumentos viáveis de governança global quando a questão é a minimização dos riscos ambientais que ameaçam o planeta. Diante disso, foi definido como objetivo do estudo verificar a institucionalização da rede global de políticas públicas voltada à mitigação das mudanças climáticas entre os atores brasileiros relacionados com as políticas de redução e/ou compensação das emissões de gases de efeito estufa. Para isso, foi realizada uma pesquisa bibliográfica sobre o tema de estudo e uma pesquisa empírica com os atores brasileiros do setor público, privado e organizações não-governamentais envolvidos na rede global de políticas públicas. Os resultados mostraram que dos elementos analisados no intuito de verificar a institucionalização da rede entre os atores brasileiros, somente parte deles apontaram para a formação dessa estrutura. Notou-se uma tentativa de institucionalizar a rede, entretanto, muito ainda há de ser desenvolvido para uma perfeita institucionalização.

The manufacturing industry in Brazil in the era of global value chains

This article presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the international trade performance of the manufacturing industry in Brazil over the last decades, emphasizing its participation in Global Value Chains. It uses information from recent available global inputoutput tables such as WIOD (World Input-output database) and TIVA (Trade in Value Added, OECD) as well as complementary information from the GTAP 8 (Global Trade Analysis Project) database. The calculation of a broad set of value added type indicators allows a precise contextualization of the ongoing structural changes in the Brazilian industry, highlighting the relative isolation of its manufacturing sector from the most relevant international supply chains. This article also proposes a public policy discussion, presenting two case studies: the first one related to trade facilitation and the second one to preferential trade agreements. The main conclusions are twofold: first, the reduction of time delays at customs in Brazil may significantly improve the trade performance of its manufacturing industry, specially for the more capital intensive sectors which are generally the ones with greater potential to connection to global value chains; second, the extension of the concept of a “preferential trade partner” to the context of the global unbundling of production may pave the way to future trade policy in Brazil, particularly in the mapping of those partners whose bilateral trade relations with Brazil should receive greater priority by policy makers.

The manufacturing industry in Brazil in the era of global value chains

This article presents a comprehensive and detailed overview of the international trade performance of the manufacturing industry in Brazil over the last decades, emphasizing its participation in Global Value Chains. It uses information from recent available global inputoutput tables such as WIOD (World Input-output database) and TIVA (Trade in Value Added, OECD) as well as complementary information from the GTAP 8 (Global Trade Analysis Project) database. The calculation of a broad set of value added type indicators allows a precise contextualization of the ongoing structural changes in the Brazilian industry, highlighting the relative isolation of its manufacturing sector from the most relevant international supply chains. This article also proposes a public policy discussion, presenting two case studies: the first one related to trade facilitation and the second one to preferential trade agreements. The main conclusions are twofold: first, the reduction of time delays at customs in Brazil may significantly improve the trade performance of its manufacturing industry, specially for the more capital intensive sectors which are generally the ones with greater potential to connection to global value chains; second, the extension of the concept of a “preferential trade partner” to the context of the global unbundling of production may pave the way to future trade policy in Brazil, particularly in the mapping of those partners whose bilateral trade relations with Brazil should receive greater priority by policy makers

Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

The succession dynamics of a macroalgal community after a flood disturbance in a tropical stream from São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Determinantes de competitividade de destinos turísticos aplicados aos roteiros regionais: uma avaliação do roteiro Seridó/RN

The tourism industry is gaining representation by move and stimulate the economy, especially by allowing the generation of employment and income, thus allowing growth opportunities for localities where tourism develops. Therefore, the present study entitled determinants of competitiveness of tourist destinations applied to regional routes: an evaluation of the Route of Seridó/RN, discusses the issue of competitiveness in tourism and tries to understand the scenery of this Route. The main objective of the study is to assess the conditions of competitiveness in the Route of Seridó/RN according to benchmarks and global determinants of competitiveness for tourist destinations. The study has also as specifics objectives: define dimensions of the reference model for use in evaluating the competitiveness of the Route of Seridó/RN; identify levels of governance and competitiveness in the municipalities that make up the sample set above the Route, and analyze to what extent the competitiveness of the Route correspond to the global reference of competitiveness of tourism destinations. Regarding the methodology, it is a search for an exploratory- descriptive and used a combination of quantitative and qualitative research method as expected and required in the implementation of the evaluation tool called Compet&enible Model. For data collection, it has been taken technical visits and also analysis of documents and materials. Data analysis was based on the records and documents and the use of simple descriptive statistics for the scores of the elements offered by Compet&enible Model. The results allowed us to know the real conditions of competitiveness of the Seridó/RN Route forward to the attributes of tourist destinations for global competitiveness: the dimension I, Governance, reached 17 points, classified as "in structuring" and dimension II, Competitiveness, reached 10 points, ranking "weak". These results highlight the need for greater involvement of the actors in the supply chain of tourism in Polo Seridó/RN for the actions, programs and projects are put into practice. It is expected that tourism is considered an important activity for the local and global development, serving as a reference for the future management of Seridó/RN Route, guiding new policy guidelines, planning and organization to better competitiveness