Generalised gamma bidding model

A generalised gamma bidding model is presented, which incorporates many previous models. The log likelihood equations are provided. Using a new method of testing, variants of the model are fitted to some real data for construction contract auctions to find the best fitting models for groupings of bidders. The results are examined for simplifying assumptions, including all those in the main literature. These indicate no one model to be best for all datasets. However, some models do appear to perform significantly better than others and it is suggested that future research would benefit from a closer examination of these.

Extra-pleural pneumonectomy versus no extra-pleural pneumonectomy for patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma : clinical outcomes of the Mesothelioma and Radical Surgery (MARS) randomised feasibility study

Background The effects of extra-pleural pneumonectomy (EPP) on survival and quality of life in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma have, to our knowledge, not been assessed in a randomised trial. We aimed to assess the clinical outcomes of patients who were randomly assigned to EPP or no EPP in the context of trimodal therapy in the Mesothelioma and Radical Surgery (MARS) feasibility study. Methods MARS was a multicentre randomised controlled trial in 12 UK hospitals. Patients aged 18 years or older who had pathologically confirmed mesothelioma and were deemed fit enough to undergo trimodal therapy were included. In a prerandomisation registration phase, all patients underwent induction platinum-based chemotherapy followed by clinical review. After further consent, patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to EPP followed by postoperative hemithorax irradiation or to no EPP. Randomisation was done centrally with computer-generated permuted blocks stratified by surgical centre. The main endpoints were feasibility of randomly assigning 50 patients in 1 year (results detailed in another report), proportion randomised who received treatment, proportion eligible (registered) who proceeded to randomisation, perioperative mortality, and quality of life. Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment allocation. This is the principal report of the MARS study; all patients have been recruited. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN95583524. Findings Between Oct 1, 2005, and Nov 3, 2008, 112 patients were registered and 50 were subsequently randomly assigned: 24 to EPP and 26 to no EPP. The main reasons for not proceeding to randomisation were disease progression (33 patients), inoperability (five patients), and patient choice (19 patients). EPP was completed satisfactorily in 16 of 24 patients assigned to EPP; in five patients EPP was not started and in three patients it was abandoned. Two patients in the EPP group died within 30 days and a further patient died without leaving hospital. One patient in the no EPP group died perioperatively after receiving EPP off trial in a non-MARS centre. The hazard ratio [HR] for overall survival between the EPP and no EPP groups was 1·90 (95% CI 0·92-3·93; exact p=0·082), and after adjustment for sex, histological subtype, stage, and age at randomisation the HR was 2·75 (1·21-6·26; p=0·016). Median survival was 14·4 months (5·3-18·7) for the EPP group and 19·5 months (13·4 to time not yet reached) for the no EPP group. Of the 49 randomly assigned patients who consented to quality of life assessment (EPP n=23; no EPP n=26), 12 patients in the EPP group and 19 in the no EPP group completed the quality of life questionnaires. Although median quality of life scores were lower in the EPP group than the no EPP group, no significant differences between groups were reported in the quality of life analyses. There were ten serious adverse events reported in the EPP group and two in the no EPP group. Interpretation In view of the high morbidity associated with EPP in this trial and in other non-randomised studies a larger study is not feasible. These data, although limited, suggest that radical surgery in the form of EPP within trimodal therapy offers no benefit and possibly harms patients. Funding Cancer Research UK (CRUK/04/003), the June Hancock Mesothelioma Research Fund, and Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Improving work and life balance : building a multilevel model of work-life balance focusing on group structure and relational job design

One in five Australian workers believes that work doesn’t fit well with their family and social commitments. Concurrently, organisations are recognising that to stay competitive they need policies and practices that support the multiple aspects of employees’ lives. Many employees work in group environments yet there is currently little group level work-life balance research. This paper proposes a new theoretical framework developed to understand the design of work groups to better facilitate work-life balance. This new framework focuses on task and relational job designs, group structures and processes and workplace culture.

Jane McCredie - Making Girls and Boys : Inside the Science of Sex [Book Review]

Activists, Feminists, queer theorists, and those who live outside traditional gender narratives have long challenged the fixity of the sex and gender binaries. While the dominant Western paradigm posits sex and gender as natural and inherent, queer theory argues that sex and gender are socially constructed. This means that our ideas about sex and gender, and the concepts themselves, are shaped by particular social contexts. Questioning the nature of sex can be puzzling. After all, isn’t sex biology? Binary sex – male and female – was labelled as such by scientists based on existing binary categories and observations of hormones, genes, chromosomes, reproductive organs, genitals and other bodily elements. Binary sex is allocated at birth by genital appearance. Not everyone fits into these categories and this leads queer theorists, and others, to question the categories. Now, “some scientists are also starting to move away from the idea of biology as the fixed basis on which the social artefact of gender is built” (5). Making Girls and Boys: Inside the Science of Sex, by Jane McCredie, examines theories about gender roles and behaviours also considering those who don’t fit the arbitrary sex and gender binaries.

An evaluation of different features and learning models for anomalous event detection

The huge amount of CCTV footage available makes it very burdensome to process these videos manually through human operators. This has made automated processing of video footage through computer vision technologies necessary. During the past several years, there has been a large effort to detect abnormal activities through computer vision techniques. Typically, the problem is formulated as a novelty detection task where the system is trained on normal data and is required to detect events which do not fit the learned ‘normal’ model. There is no precise and exact definition for an abnormal activity; it is dependent on the context of the scene. Hence there is a requirement for different feature sets to detect different kinds of abnormal activities. In this work we evaluate the performance of different state of the art features to detect the presence of the abnormal objects in the scene. These include optical flow vectors to detect motion related anomalies, textures of optical flow and image textures to detect the presence of abnormal objects. These extracted features in different combinations are modeled using different state of the art models such as Gaussian mixture model(GMM) and Semi- 2D Hidden Markov model(HMM) to analyse the performances. Further we apply perspective normalization to the extracted features to compensate for perspective distortion due to the distance between the camera and objects of consideration. The proposed approach is evaluated using the publicly available UCSD datasets and we demonstrate improved performance compared to other state of the art methods.

In vitro assessment of surface congruency and integration of chondrocytes at adjacent edges of micro-fabricated clefts on cartilage

Osteochondral grafts are common treatment options for joint focal defects due to their excellent functionality. However, the difficulty is matching the topography of host and graft(s) surfaces flush to one another. Incongruence could lead to disintegration particularly when the gap reaches subchondoral region. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate cell response to gap geometry when forming cartilage-cartilage bridge at the interface. The question is what would be the characteristics of such a gap if the cells could bridge across to fuse the edges? To answer this, osteochondral plugs devoid of host cells were prepared through enzymatic decellularization and artificial clefts of different sizes were created on the cartilage surface using laser ablation. High density pellets of heterologous chondrocytes were seeded on the defects and cultured with chondrogenic differentiation media for 35 days. The results showed that the behavior of chondrocytes was a function of gap topography. Depending on the distance of the edges two types of responses were generated. Resident cells surrounding distant edges demonstrated superficial attachment to one side whereas clefts of 150 to 250 µm width experienced cell migration and anchorage across the interface. The infiltration of chondrocytes into the gaps provided extra space for their proliferation and laying matrix; as the result faster filling of the initial void space was observed. On the other hand, distant and fit edges created an incomplete healing response due to the limited ability of differentiated chondrocytes to migrate and incorporate within the interface. It seems that the initial condition of the defects and the curvature profile of the adjacent edges were the prime determinants of the quality of repair; however, further studies to reveal the underlying mechanisms of cells adapting to and modifying the new environment would be of particular interest.

Changes in the site distribution of common melanoma subtypes in Queensland, Australia over time: implications for public health campaigns

Abstract BACKGROUND: An examination of melanoma incidence according to anatomical region may be one method of monitoring the impact of public health initiatives. OBJECTIVES:   To examine melanoma incidence trends by body site, sex and age at diagnosis or body site and morphology in a population at high risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS:   Population-based data on invasive melanoma cases (n = 51473) diagnosed between 1982 and 2008 were extracted from the Queensland Cancer Registry. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated using the direct method (2000 world standard population) and joinpoint regression models were used to fit trend lines. RESULTS:   Significantly decreasing trends for melanomas on the trunk and upper limbs/shoulders were observed during recent years for both sexes under the age of 40 years and among males aged 40-59years. However, in the 60 and over age group, the incidence of melanoma is continuing to increase at all sites (apart from the trunk) for males and on the scalp/neck and upper limbs/shoulders for females. Rates of nodular melanoma are currently decreasing on the trunk and lower limbs. In contrast, superficial spreading melanoma is significantly increasing on the scalp/neck and lower limbs, along with substantial increases in lentigo maligna melanoma since the late 1990s at all sites apart from the lower limbs. CONCLUSIONS:   In this large study we have observed significant decreases in rates of invasive melanoma in the younger age groups on less frequently exposed body sites. These results may provide some indirect evidence of the impact of long-running primary prevention campaigns.

Risky Business : managing creative practice postgraduates

In Australia, as elsewhere, universities are being encouraged to grow their postgraduate research candidature base while at the same time there is increasing pressure on resources with which to manage the burgeoning groups. In this environment HDR supervision strategies are seen as increasingly important as research managers seek the best possible ‘fit’ for an applicant: the candidate who will provide a sound return on investment and demonstrate endurance in the pursuit of a timely completion.

Modeling predictors of risky drug use behavior among male street laborers in urban Vietnam

Background The application of theoretical frameworks for modeling predictors of drug risk among male street laborers remains limited. The objective of this study was to test a modified version of the IMB (Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model), which includes psychosocial stress, and compare this modified version with the original IMB model in terms of goodness-of-fit to predict risky drug use behavior among this population. Methods In a cross-sectional study, social mapping technique was conducted to recruit 450 male street laborers from 135 street venues across 13 districts of Hanoi city, Vietnam, for face-to-face interviews. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze data from interviews. Results Overall measures of fit via SEM indicated that the original IMB model provided a better fit to the data than the modified version. Although the former model was able to predict a lesser variance than the latter (55% vs. 62%), it was of better fit. The findings suggest that men who are better informed and motivated for HIV prevention are more likely to report higher behavioral skills, which, in turn, are less likely to be engaged in risky drug use behavior. Conclusions This was the first application of the modified IMB model for drug use in men who were unskilled, unregistered laborers in urban settings. An AIDS prevention program for these men should not only distribute information and enhance motivations for HIV prevention, but consider interventions that could improve self-efficacy for preventing HIV infection. Future public health research and action may also consider broader factors such as structural social capital and social policy to alter the conditions that drive risky drug use among these men.

Development of the child abuse and neglect reporting self-efficacy questionnaire for nurses

Taiwan nurses are mandated to report known or suspected child abuse and neglect (CAN), and self-efficacy is known to have an important influence on professional behaviors. The aim of this study was to develop and test the CAN reporting self-efficacy (CANRSE) scale as a measure of nurses’ self-efficacy to report CAN. A sample of 496 nurses from Southern Taiwanese hospitals used the CANRSE scale. The psychometric evaluation of the scale included content validity, exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, convergent validity, as well as Cronbach’s α and test−retest reliability. Satisfactory internal consistency (Cronbach’s α = 0.92) and test−retest reliability were demonstrated. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the proposed models as having acceptable model fit. Exploratory factor analysis and regression analyses showed that the CANRSE scale had good construct validity and criterion-related validity, respectively. Convergent validity was tested using the general self-efficacy scale and was found to be satisfactory (r = 0.53). The results indicate the CANRSE is reliable and valid, and further testing of its predictive validity is recommended. It can be used to examine the influence of professional self-efficacy in recognizing and reporting CAN cases and to evaluate the impact of training programs aimed at improving CAN reporting.

Pupil shape as viewed along the horizontal visual field

Purpose: Changes in pupil size and shape are relevant for peripheral imagery by affecting aberrations and how much light enters and/or exits the eye. The purpose of this study is to model the pattern of pupil shape across the complete horizontal visual field and to show how the pattern is influenced by refractive error. Methods: Right eyes of thirty participants were dilated with 1% cyclopentolate and images were captured using a modified COAS-HD aberrometer alignment camera along the horizontal visual field to ±90°. A two lens relay system enabled fixation at targets mounted on the wall 3m from the eye. Participants placed their heads on a rotatable chin rest and eye rotations were kept to less than 30°. Best-fit elliptical dimensions of pupils were determined. Ratios of minimum to maximum axis diameters were plotted against visual field angle. Results: Participants’ data were well fitted by cosine functions, with maxima at (–)1° to (–)9° in the temporal visual field and widths 9% to 15% greater than predicted by the cosine of the field angle . Mean functions were 0.99cos[( + 5.3)/1.121], R2 0.99 for the whole group and 0.99cos[( + 6.2)/1.126], R2 0.99 for the 13 emmetropes. The function peak became less temporal, and the width became smaller, with increase in myopia. Conclusion: Off-axis pupil shape changes are well described by a cosine function which is both decentered by a few degrees and flatter by about 12% than the cosine of the viewing angle, with minor influences of refraction.

Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

Simulating the effect of acoustic treatment types for residential balconies with road traffic noise

Development of design guides to estimate the difference in speech interference level due to road traffic noise between a reference position and balcony position or façade position is explored. A previously established and validated theoretical model incorporating direct, specular and diffuse reflection paths is used to create a database of results across a large number of scenarios. Nine balcony types with variable acoustic treatments are assessed to provide acoustic design guidance on optimised selection of balcony acoustic treatments based on location and street type. In total, the results database contains 9720 scenarios on which multivariate linear regression is conducted in order to derive an appropriate design guide equation. The best fit regression derived is a multivariable linear equation including modified exponential equations on each of nine deciding variables, (1) diffraction path difference, (2) ratio of total specular energy to direct energy, (3) distance loss between reference position and receiver position, (4) distance from source to balcony façade, (5) height of balcony floor above street, (6) balcony depth, (7) height of opposite buildings, (8) diffusion coefficient of buildings, and; (9) balcony average absorption. Overall, the regression correlation coefficient, R2, is 0.89 with 95% confidence standard error of ±3.4 dB.

Assessing the construct validity and reliability of the parental perception on antibiotics (PAPA) scales

Background: The overuse of antibiotics is becoming an increasing concern. Antibiotic resistance, which increases both the burden of disease, and the cost of health services, is perhaps the most profound impact of antibiotics overuse. Attempts have been made to develop instruments to measure the psychosocial constructs underlying antibiotics use, however, none of these instruments have undergone thorough psychometric validation. This study evaluates the psychometric properties of the Parental Perceptions on Antibiotics (PAPA) scales. The PAPA scales attempt to measure the factors influencing parental use of antibiotics in children. Methods: 1111 parents of children younger than 12 years old were recruited from primary schools’ parental meetings in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia from September 2012 to January 2013. The structure of the PAPA instrument was validated using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) with measurement model fit evaluated using the raw and scaled χ2, Goodness of Fit Index, and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation. Results: A five-factor model was confirmed with the model showing good fit. Constructs in the model include: Knowledge and Beliefs, Behaviors, Sources of information, Adherence, and Awareness about antibiotics resistance. The instrument was shown to have good internal consistency, and good discriminant and convergent validity. Conclusion: The availability of an instrument able to measure the psychosocial factors underlying antibiotics usage allows the risk factors underlying antibiotic use and overuse to now be investigated.

Asking the wrong questions about gambling

OVERSHADOWED by the debate about the government’s media legislation, the final report of the review of the Interactive Gambling Act 2001, published last week, received comparatively little attention. Like the government’s response to the report, the sparse media coverage focused on measures to prevent problem gambling – undoubtedly an important issue – but failed to discuss the fact that Australian gamblers, recreational or otherwise, continue to get a raw deal. The report seems likely to perpetuate a culture of high-margin, low-risk bookmaking, cutting Australians off from the global market under the guise of consumer protection. Also missing from the debate are two other questions: are Australian gamblers getting value for money, and where do the growing number of social games fit into the regulatory landscape?