Trends of the Risk of Death due to Circulatory, Cerebrovascular, and Ischemic Heart Diseases in 11 Brazilian Capitals from 1980 to 1998

OBJECTIVE: To assess the trends of the risk of death due to circulatory (CD), cerebrovascular (CVD), and ischemic heart diseases (IHD) in 11 Brazilian capitals from 1980 to 1998. METHODS: Data on mortality due to CD, CVD and IHD were obtained from the Brazilian Health Ministry, and the population estimates were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method based on census data from 1980 and 1991 and the population count of 1996. The trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression method. RESULTS: CD showed a trend towards a decrease in most capitals, except for Brasília, where a mild increase was observed. The cities of Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, Cuiabá, Goiânia, Belém, and Manaus showed a decrease in the risk of death due to CVD and IHD, while the city of Brasília showed an increase in CVD and IHD. The city of São Paulo showed a mild increase in IHD for individuals of both sexes aged 30 to 39 years and for females aged 40 to 59 years. In the cities of Recife and Salvador, a reduction in CD was observed for all ages and both sexes. In the city of Recife, however, an increase in IHD was observed at younger ages (30 to 49 years), and this trend decreased until a mild reduction (-4%) was observed in males ³ 70 years. CONCLUSION: In general, a reduction in the risk of death due to CD and an increase in IHD were observed, mainly in the cities of Recife and Brasília.

Behavior of inflammatory markers of myocardial injury in cardiac surgery: laboratory correlation with the clinical picture of postpericardiotomy syndrome

OBJECTIVE: To verify the association of serum markers of myocardial injury, such as troponin I, creatinine kinase, and creatinine kinase isoenzyme MB, and inflammatory markers, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), C-reactive protein, and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate in the perioperative period of cardiac surgery, with the occurrence of possible postpericardiotomy syndrome. METHODS: This was a cohort study with 96 patients undergoing cardiac surgery assessed at the following 4 different time periods: the day before surgery (D0); the 3rd postoperative day (D3); between the 7th and 10th postoperative days (D7-10); and the 30th postoperative day (D30). During each period, we evaluated demographic variables (sex and age), surgical variables (type and duration , extracorporeal circulation), and serum dosages of the markers of myocardial injury and inflammatory response. RESULTS: Of all patients, 12 (12.5%) met the clinical criteria for a diagnosis of postpericardiotomy syndrome, and their mean age was 10.3 years lower than the age of the others (P=0.02). The results of the serum markers for tissue injury and inflammatory response were not significantly different between the 2 assessed groups. No significant difference existed regarding either surgery duration or extracorporeal circulation. CONCLUSION: The patients who met the clinical criteria for postpericardiotomy syndrome were significantly younger than the others were. Serum markers for tissue injury and inflammatory response were not different in the clinically affected group, and did not correlate with the different types and duration of surgery or with extracorporeal circulation.

Using one-year claim development to chose a large claim reserving technique

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais

Short Guide to Hepatitis C

Hepatitis C is a rapidly developing area of medicine – diagnostic tools are ever more refined, and entirely new treatments and treatment strategies are arriving, with more on the horizon. And because the virus affects such a large and varying population – up to 170 million at last count – we think it is important to have a pocket reference especially devoted to hepatitis C. We look forward to your comments on the usefulness of our 2014 Short Guide to Hepatitis C, which is an expansion and update of the HCV chapters in Hepatology – A Clinical Textbook (2014), also published by Flying Publisher. As always, we invite qualified people everywhere to translate this book into other languages, and make them available widely. This web-based free-of- harge concept is made possible by unrestricted educational grants from the pharmaceutical industry and has allowed the material to reach countries usually not covered by print media. We are convinced that this new pocket guide concept, focusing here on hepatitis C, will become a valuable source of information for our readers.

Relationship between Neutrophil-To-Lymphocyte Ratio and Electrocardiographic Ischemia Grade in STEMI

Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been found to be a good predictor of future adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Changes in the QRS terminal portion have also been associated with adverse outcomes following STEMI. Objective: To investigate the relationship between ECG ischemia grade and NLR in patients presenting with STEMI, in order to determine additional conventional risk factors for early risk stratification. Methods: Patients with STEMI were investigated. The grade of ischemia was analyzed from the ECG performed on admission. White blood cells and subtypes were measured as part of the automated complete blood count (CBC) analysis. Patients were classified into two groups according to the ischemia grade presented on the admission ECG, as grade 2 ischemia (G2I) and grade 3 ischemia (G3I). Results: Patients with G3I had significantly lower mean left ventricular ejection fraction than those in G2I (44.58 ± 7.23 vs. 48.44 ± 7.61, p = 0.001). As expected, in-hospital mortality rate increased proportionally with the increase in ischemia grade (p = 0.036). There were significant differences in percentage of lymphocytes (p = 0.010) and percentage of neutrophils (p = 0.004), and therefore, NLR was significantly different between G2I and G3I patients (p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only NLR was the independent variable with a significant effect on ECG ischemia grade (odds ratio = 1.254, 95% confidence interval 1.120–1.403, p < 0.001). Conclusion: We found an association between G3I and elevated NLR in patients with STEMI. We believe that such an association might provide an additional prognostic value for risk stratification in patients with STEMI when combined with standardized risk scores.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio are Predictors of Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are inflammatory markers used as prognostic factors in various diseases. The aims of this study were to compare the PLR and the NLR of heart failure (HF) patients with those of age-sex matched controls, to evaluate the predictive value of those markers in detecting HF, and to demonstrate the effect of NLR and PLR on mortality in HF patients during follow-up. Methods: This study included 56 HF patients and 40 controls without HF. All subjects underwent transthoracic echocardiography to evaluate cardiac functions. The NLR and the PLR were calculated as the ratio of neutrophil count to lymphocyte count and as the ratio of platelet count to lymphocyte count, respectively. All HF patients were followed after their discharge from the hospital to evaluate mortality, cerebrovascular events, and re-hospitalization. Results: The NLR and the PLR of HF patients were significantly higher compared to those of the controls (p < 0.01). There was an inverse correlation between the NLR and the left ventricular ejection fraction of the study population (r: -0.409, p < 0.001). The best cut-off value of NLR to predict HF was 3.0, with 86.3% sensitivity and 77.5% specificity, and the best cut-off value of PLR to predict HF was 137.3, with 70% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Only NLR was an independent predictor of mortality in HF patients. A cut-off value of 5.1 for NLR can predict death in HF patients with 75% sensitivity and 62% specificity during a 12.8-month follow-up period on average. Conclusion: NLR and PLR were higher in HF patients than in age-sex matched controls. However, NLR and PLR were not sufficient to establish a diagnosis of HF. NLR can be used to predict mortality during the follow-up of HF patients.

Hemorheological and Glycemic Parameters and HDL Cholesterol for the Prediction of Cardiovascular Events

Abstract Background: Hemorheological and glycemic parameters and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol are used as biomarkers of atherosclerosis and thrombosis. Objective: To investigate the association and clinical relevance of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), fibrinogen, fasting glucose, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and HDL cholesterol in the prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in an outpatient population. Methods: 708 stable patients who visited the outpatient department were enrolled and followed for a mean period of 28.5 months. Patients were divided into two groups, patients without MACE and patients with MACE, which included cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction, newly diagnosed CHD, and cerebral vascular accident. We compared hemorheological and glycemic parameters and lipid profiles between the groups. Results: Patients with MACE had significantly higher ESR, fibrinogen, fasting glucose, and HbA1c, while lower HDL cholesterol compared with patients without MACE. High ESR and fibrinogen and low HDL cholesterol significantly increased the risk of MACE in multivariate regression analysis. In patients with MACE, high fibrinogen and HbA1c levels increased the risk of multivessel CHD. Furthermore, ESR and fibrinogen were significantly positively correlated with HbA1c and negatively correlated with HDL cholesterol, however not correlated with fasting glucose. Conclusion: Hemorheological abnormalities, poor glycemic control, and low HDL cholesterol are correlated with each other and could serve as simple and useful surrogate markers and predictors for MACE and CHD in outpatients.

Sobre o comportamento mitótico e meiótico de cromossomas policêntricos ou com ponto de inserção difuso

Material: Studies were made mainly with Ascaris megalocephála Cloq. univalens and bivalens, and also with Tityus bahiensis Perty. 1) Somatic pairing of heterochromatic regions. The heterochromatic ends of the somatic chromosomes in Ascaris show a very strong tendency for unspecifical somatic pairing which may occur between parts of different chromosomes (Figs. 1, 2, 3, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 18,), between the two ends of the same chromosome either directly (Figs. 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18) or inversely (Fig. 8, in the arrow) and also within a same chromosomal arm (Fig. 6). 2) During the early first cleavage division the chomosomes are an isodiametric cylinder (Figs. 6, 9, 11, 13, 14). But in later metaphase the ends become club shaped (Figs. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10) which is interpreted as the beginning of migration of chromatic substance from the central euchromatic region towards the heterochromatic regions. This migration becomes more and accentuated in anaphase (Figs. 19, 22, 23) and in the vegetative cells where euchromatic region looses more and more staing power, especially in the intersititial zones between the individual small spherical chromosomes into which the euchromatic region desintegrates. The emigrated chromatin material is finally eliminated with the heterochromatic chromosome ends (Fig. 23 and 24). 3) It seems a general rule that during mitotic anaphase all chromosomes with diffuse or multiple spindle fiber attachement (Ascaris, Tityus, Luzula, Steatococcus, Homoptera and Heteroptera in general) move to the poles in the form of an U with precedence of the chromosomal ends. In Ascaris, the heterocromatic regions are pulled passively towards the poles and only the euchromatic central portion may be U-shaped (Fig. 19, 22, 25). While in the other species this U-shape is perfect since the beginning of anaphase, giving the impression that movement towards the poles begins at both ends of a chromosome simultaneously, this is not the case in Ascaris. There the euchromatic region is at first U-shaped, passing then to form a straight or zig-zag line and becoming again U-shaped during late anaphase. This is explained by the fact that the ends of the euchromatic regions have to pull the weight of the passive heterochromatic portions. 4) While it is generally accepted that, during first meio-tic division untill second anaphase, all attachement regions remain either undivided or at least united closely, this is not the case in chromosomes with diffused or multiple attachment. Here one clearly sees in all cases so far studied four parallel chromatids at first metaphase. In Luzula and Tityus (for Tityus all figs. 26 to 31) this division is allready quite clear in paraphase (pro-metaphase) and it cannot be said wether in other species the division in sister chromatids is allready present, but not visible at this stage. During first anaphase the sister chromatids of Titbits remain more or less in contact, while in Luzula and especially in Ascaris they are quite separated. Thus one can count in late anaphase or telophase of Ascaris megalocephala bivalens, nearly allways, four separate chromosomes near each pole, or a total of eight chromatids per division figure (Figs. 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41).

Aspectos parasitários observados no local inoculado com esporozoitos de Plasmodium Gallinaceum

The following is a summary of the studies made on the development of Plasmodium gallinaceum sporozoites inoculated into normal chicks. Initially large numbers of laboratory reared Aëdes aegypti were fed on pullets heavily infected with gametocytes. Following the infectious meal the mosquitoes were kept on a diet of sugar and water syrup until the appearance of the sporozoites in the salivary glands. Normal chicks kept in hematophagous arthropod proof cages were then inoculated either by bite of the infected mosquitoes or by subcutaneous inoculations of salivary gland suspensions. By the first method ten mosquitoes fed to engorgement on each normal chick and were then sacrificed immediately afterwards to determine the sporozoite count. By the second method five pairs of salivary glands were dissected out at room temperature, triturated in physiological saline and inoculated subcutaneously. The epidermis and dermis at the site of inoculation were excised from six hours after inoculation to forty eight hours after appearance of the parasites in the blood stream and stretched out on filter paper with the epithelial surface downward. The dermis was then curretted. Slides were made of the scrapings consisting of connective tissue and epithelial cells of the basal layers which were fixed by metyl alcohol and stained with Giemsa for examination under the oil immersion lens. Skin fragments removed from normal chicks and from regions other than the site of inoculation in the infected chicks were used as controls. In these, only the normal histological aspect was ever encountered. In the biopsy made at the earliest period following inoculation clearly defined elongated forms with eight or more chromatin granules arranged in rosary formation were found. The author believes these to be products of the sporozoite evolution. Search for transition stages between these forms and sporozoites is planned in biopsies to be taken immediately following inoculation and at given intervals up to the six hour period. 1.) 6 and 12 hour periods. The bodies referred to above found in the first period in great abundance, apparently in proportion to the large numbers of sporozoites inoculated, were perceptibly reduced in numbers in the second period. 2.) 18 hour period. Only one biopsy was examined. This presented a binuclear body shown in Fig. 1, having a more or less hyaline protoplasm staining an intense blue and a narrow vacuole delimiting the cell boundaries. The two chromatin grains were quite large presenting a clearly defined nuclear texture. 3.) 24 hour period. A similar body to that above (Fig. 2) was seen in the only preparation examined. 4.) 60 hour period. The exoerythrocytic schizonts were found more frequently from this period onward. Several such were found no longer to contain the previously described vacuoles (Fig. 3). 5.) 84 hour period. Cells bearing eight or more schizonts were frequently encountered here. That these are apparently not bodies in process of division may be seen in Fig. 4. From this time onward small violet granules similar to volutine grains appeared constantly in the schizont nucleus and protoplasm. These are definitely not hemozoin. The above observations fell within the incubation period as repeated examinations of the peripheral and visceral blood were negative. Exoery-throcytic parasites also were never encountered in the viscera at this time. Exoerythrocytic schizonts searched for at site of inoculation 1, 24 and 48 hours after the incubation period were present in large number at all three times with apparent tendency to diminish as the number within the blood stream increased. Many of them presented the violet granules mentioned above. The appearance of the chromatin and the intensity of staining of the protoplasm varied from body to body which doubtless corresponds to the evolutionary stage of each. This diversity of aspect may frequently be seen in the parasites of the same host cell (Fig. 5.). These findings lend substance to the theory that the exoerythrocytic forms are the link between the sporozoites and the pigmented parasites of the red blood corpuscles. The explanation of their continued presence in the organism after infection of the blood stream takes place and their presence in cases infected by the inoculation blood does not come within the scope of this work. Large scale observations shortly to be undertaken will be reported in more detail particularly observations on the first evolutionary phases of the sporozoite within the organism of the vertebrate host.

Modeling usage of medical care services: the medical expenditure panel survey data, 1996-2000

We explore the determinants of usage of six different types of health care services, using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data, years 1996-2000. We apply a number of models for univariate count data, including semiparametric, semi-nonparametric and finite mixture models. We find that the complexity of the model that is required to fit the data well depends upon the way in which the data is pooled across sexes and over time, and upon the characteristics of the usage measure. Pooling across time and sexes is almost always favored, but when more heterogeneous data is pooled it is often the case that a more complex statistical model is required.

Scoring rules on dichotomous preferences

In this paper, we study individual incentives to report preferences truthfully for the special case when individuals have dichotomous preferences on the set of alternatives and preferences are aggregated in form of scoring rules. In particular, we show that (a) the Borda Count coincides with Approval Voting on the dichotomous preference domain, (b) the Borda Count is the only strategy-proof scoring rule on the dichotomous preference domain, and (c) if at least three individuals participate in the election, then the dichotomous preference domain is the unique maximal rich domain under which the Borda Count is strategy-proof.

A study of the endocervical columnar cells I - morphology and frequency

After the observation of many thousands of histological sections of the endocervical mucosa it became evident that its columnar cells present a great variety of aspects not only those of the surface of the canal but also those of the glands. A classification of these cells was made taking into account the staining affinity, the intensity staining of the cytoplasm, the presence or absence of cilia, the shape and location of the nucleus. The various combinations of these different data made possible the characterization of 26 types of cells which we labelled by the alphabetical letters. Two hundred and fifty cervices obtained by cervical amputation and by hysterectomy were studied. The uteri presented lesions in the course of routine laboratory examination. In each of the 250 histological sections there were specifically counted 2,000 columnar cells which cover the cervical canal and 2,000columnar cells which form the glands. A graphic representation of the frequency of both the superficial and glandular columnar cells was presented; this was given the name EPITHELIOGRAM. The variation of the cellular "composition" of each epithelium is discussed and the frequency of the various cellular types after the count of one million of cells is presented.

Industrial location at a local level: some comments about the territorial level of the analysis

This paper contributes to the existing literature on industrial location by discussing some issues regarding the territorial levels that have been used in location analysis. We analyse which could be the advantages and disadvantages of performing locational analysis at a different local levels. We use data for new manufacturing firms located at municipality, county and travel to work areas level. We show that location determinants vary according to the territorial level used in the analysis, so we conclude that the level at which we perform the investigation should be carefully selected. Keywords: industrial location, cities, agglomeration economies, count data models.

Agglomeration and location: a nonparametric approach

The aim of this article is to assess the effects of several territorial characteristics, specifically agglomeration economies, on industrial location processes in the Spanish region of Catalonia. Theoretically, the level of agglomeration causes economies which favour the location of new establishments, but an excessive level of agglomeration might cause diseconomies, since congestion effects arise. The empirical evidence on this matter is inconclusive, probably because the models used so far are not suitable enough. We use a more flexible semiparametric specification, which allows us to study the nonlinear relationship between the different types of agglomeration levels and location processes. Our main statistical source is the REIC (Catalan Manufacturing Establishments Register), which has plant-level microdata on location of new industrial establishments. Keywords: agglomeration economies, industrial location, Generalized Additive Models, nonparametric estimation, count data models.

Locations and Relocations:Modelling, Determinants, and Interrelations

Empirical studies on industrial location do not typically distinguish between new and relocated establishments. This paper addresses this shortcoming using data on the frequency of these events in municipalities of the same economic-administrative region. This enables us to test not only for differences in their determinants but also for interrelations between start-ups and relocations. Estimates from count regression models for cross-section and panel data show that, although partial effects differ, common patterns arise in “institutional” and “neoclassical” explanatory factors. Also, start-ups and relocations are positive but asymmetrically related. JEL classification: C25, R30, R10. Keywords: cities, count data models, industrial location