A general continuous auction model with insiders

We analyse in a unified way how the presence of a trader with privilege information makes the market to be efficient when the release time is known. We establish a general relation between the problem of finding an equilibrium and the problem of enlargement of filtrations. We also consider the case where the time of announcement is random. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time.

Enquête sur les pratiques de gouvernance des systèmes d'information en matière de stratégie pilotage et organisation

Résumé Si l'impact de l'informatique ne fait généralement pas de doute, il est souvent plus problématique d'en mesurer sa valeur. Les Directeurs des Systèmes d'Information (DSI) expliquent l'absence de schéma directeur et de vision à moyen et long terme de l'entreprise, par un manque de temps et de ressources mais aussi par un défaut d'implication des directions générales et des directions financières. L'incapacité de mesurer précisément la valeur du système d'information engendre une logique de gestion par les coûts, néfaste à l'action de la DSI. Alors qu'une mesure de la valeur économique de l'informatique offrirait aux directions générales la matière leur permettant d'évaluer réellement la maturité et la contribution de leur système d'information. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer à la fois l'alignement de l'informatique avec la stratégie de l'entreprise, la qualité du pilotage (mesure de performance) des systèmes d'information, et enfin, l'organisation et le positionnement de la fonction informatique dans l'entreprise. La mesure de ces trois éléments clés de la gouvernance informatique a été réalisée par l'intermédiaire de deux vagues d'enquêtes successives menées en 2000/2001 (DSI) et 2002/2003 (DSI et DG) en Europe francophone (Suisse Romande, France, Belgique et Luxembourg). Abstract The impact of Information Technology (IT) is today a clear evidence to company stakeholders. However, measuring the value generated by IT is a real challenge. Chief Information Officers (CIO) explain the absence of solid IT Business Plans and clear mid/long term visions by a lack of time and resources but also by a lack of involvement of business senior management (e.g. CEO and CFO). Thus, being not able to measure the economic value of IT, the CIO will have to face the hard reality of permanent cost pressures and cost reductions to justify IT spending and investments. On the other side, being able to measure the value of IT would help CIO and senior business management to assess the maturity and the contribution of the Information System and therefore facilitate the decision making process. The objective of this thesis is to assess the alignment of IT with the business strategy, to assess the quality of measurement of the Information System and last but not least to assess the positioning of the IT organisation within the company. The assessment of these three key elements of the IT Governance was established with two surveys (first wave in 2000/2001 for CIO, second wave in 2002/2003 for CIO and CEO) in Europe (French speaking countries namely Switzerland, France, Belgium and Luxembourg).

Peripheral blood fibrocytes: new information to explain the dynamics of Leishmania infection

Fibrocytes are important for understanding the progression of many diseases because they are present in areas where pathogenic lesions are generated. However, the morphology of fibrocytes and their interactions with parasites are poorly understood. In this study, we examined the morphology of peripheral blood fibrocytes and their interactions with Leishmania (L.) amazonensis . Through ultrastructural analysis, we describe the details of fibrocyte morphology and how fibrocytes rapidly internaliseLeishmania promastigotes. The parasites differentiated into amastigotes after 2 h in phagolysosomes and the infection was completely resolved after 72 h. Early in the infection, we found increased nitric oxide production and large lysosomes with electron-dense material. These factors may regulate the proliferation and death of the parasites. Because fibrocytes are present at the infection site and are directly involved in developing cutaneous leishmaniasis, they are targets for effective, non-toxic cell-based therapies that control and treat leishmaniasis.

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Integrating forensic information in a crime intelligence database

Since 2008, Intelligence units of six states of the western part of Switzerland have been sharing a common database for the analysis of high volume crimes. On a daily basis, events reported to the police are analysed, filtered and classified to detect crime repetitions and interpret the crime environment. Several forensic outcomes are integrated in the system such as matches of traces with persons, and links between scenes detected by the comparison of forensic case data. Systematic procedures have been settled to integrate links assumed mainly through DNA profiles, shoemarks patterns and images. A statistical outlook on a retrospective dataset of series from 2009 to 2011 of the database informs for instance on the number of repetition detected or confirmed and increased by forensic case data. Time needed to obtain forensic intelligence in regard with the type of marks treated, is seen as a critical issue. Furthermore, the underlying integration process of forensic intelligence into the crime intelligence database raised several difficulties in regards of the acquisition of data and the models used in the forensic databases. Solutions found and adopted operational procedures are described and discussed. This process form the basis to many other researches aimed at developing forensic intelligence models.

Measuring and Explaining the Increase of Travel Distance : A Multilevel Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sectional Travel Surveys

We want to shed some light on the development of person mobility by analysing the repeated cross-sectional data of the four National Travel Surveys (NTS) that were conducted in Germany since the mid seventies. The above mentioned driving forces operate on different levels of the system that generates the spatial behaviour we observe: Travel demand is derived from the needs and desires of individuals to participate in spatially separated activities. Individuals organise their lives in an interactive process within the context they live in, using given infrastructure. Essential determinants of their demand are the individual's socio-demographic characteristics, but also the opportunities and constraints defined by the household and the environment are relevant for the behaviour which ultimately can be realised. In order to fully capture the context which determines individual behaviour, the (nested) hierarchy of persons within households within spatial settings has to be considered. The data we will use for our analysis contains information on these three levels. With the analysis of this micro-data we attempt to improve our understanding of the afore subsumed macro developments. In addition we will investigate the prediction power of a few classic sociodemographic variables for the daily travel distance of individuals in the four NTS data sets, with a focus on the evolution of this predictive power. The additional task to correctly measure distances travelled by means of the NTS is threatened by the fact that although these surveys measure the same variables, different sampling designs and data collection procedures were used. So the aim of the analysis is also to detect variables whose control corrects for the known measurement error, as a prerequisite to apply appropriate models in order to better understand the development of individual travel behaviour in a multilevel context. This task is complicated by the fact that variables that inform on survey procedures and outcomes are only provided with the data set for 2002 (see Infas and DIW Berlin, 2003).

Community introduction of practice parameters for autistic spectrum disorders: Advancing early recognition.

OBJECTIVES: Within a strong interdisciplinary framework, improvement in the quality of care for children with autistic spectrum disorders through a 2 year implementation program of Practice Parameters, aimed principally at improving early detection and intervention. METHOD: We developed Practice Parameters (PPs) for Pervasive Developmental Disorders and circulated the PPs to all child and adolescent psychiatrists practicing in the region. RESULTS: PP development and parallel information strategies resulted in a significant decrease of 1.5 years in the mean-age-at-diagnosis. However, further analysis indicated that improvement was only transient. CONCLUSION: Despite the encouraging improvement in mean-age-at-diagnosis 2 years after PP implementation, other indicators showed a failure to maintain the improvements. A systematic screening program would be the most reliable method to reinforce the PPs.

Estimation of the real population and its impact on the utilisation of healthcare services in Mediterranean resort regions: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND The demographic structure has a significant influence on the use of healthcare services, as does the size of the population denominators. Very few studies have been published on methods for estimating the real population such as tourist resorts. The lack of information about these problems means there is a corresponding lack of information about the behaviour of populational denominators (the floating population or tourist load) and the effect of this on the use of healthcare services. The objectives of the study were: a) To determine the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) ratio, per person per day, among populations of known size; b) to estimate, by means of this ratio, the real population in an area where tourist numbers are very significant; and c) to determine the impact on the utilisation of hospital emergency healthcare services of the registered population, in comparison to the non-resident population, in two areas where tourist numbers are very significant. METHODS An ecological study design was employed. We analysed the Healthcare Districts of the Costa del Sol and the island of Menorca. Both are Spanish territories in the Mediterranean region. RESULTS In the two areas analysed, the correlation coefficient between the MSW ratio and admissions to hospital emergency departments exceeded 0.9, with p < 0.001. On the basis of MSW generation ratios, obtained for a control zone and also measured in neighbouring countries, we estimated the real population. For the summer months, when tourist activity is greatest and demand for emergency healthcare at hospitals is highest, this value was found to be double that of the registered population. CONCLUSION The MSW indicator, which is both ecological and indirect, can be used to estimate the real population in areas where population levels vary significantly during the year. This parameter is of interest in planning and dimensioning the provision of healthcare services.

The encouragement of the open access movement: an essential realm for health information professionals in the 21st century

According to the Bethesda Statement on Open Access Policy for libraries and the recommendations of the BOAI10, libraries and librarians have an important role to fulfil in the encouragement of open access. Taking into account the Competencies for Information Professionals of the 21st Century, elaborated by the Special Libraries Association, and the Librarians’ Competencies Profile for Scholarly Publishing and Open Access, we shall identify the competencies and new areas of knowledge and expertise that have been involved in the process of the development and upkeep of our institutional repository (Repositorio SSPA).

Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Examining the information content of time-lapse crosshole GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions to estimate unsaturated soil hydraulic properties

Time-lapse geophysical data acquired during transient hydrological experiments are being increasingly employed to estimate subsurface hydraulic properties at the field scale. In particular, crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, collected while water infiltrates into the subsurface either by natural or artificial means, have been demonstrated in a number of studies to contain valuable information concerning the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone. Previous work in this domain has considered a variety of infiltration conditions and different amounts of time-lapse GPR data in the estimation procedure. However, the particular benefits and drawbacks of these different strategies as well as the impact of a variety of key and common assumptions remain unclear. Using a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo stochastic inversion methodology, we examine in this paper the information content of time-lapse zero-offset-profile (ZOP) GPR traveltime data, collected under three different infiltration conditions, for the estimation of van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters in a layered subsurface medium. Specifically, we systematically analyze synthetic and field GPR data acquired under natural loading and two rates of forced infiltration, and we consider the value of incorporating different amounts of time-lapse measurements into the estimation procedure. Our results confirm that, for all infiltration scenarios considered, the ZOP GPR traveltime data contain important information about subsurface hydraulic properties as a function of depth, with forced infiltration offering the greatest potential for VGM parameter refinement because of the higher stressing of the hydrological system. Considering greater amounts of time-lapse data in the inversion procedure is also found to help refine VGM parameter estimates. Quite importantly, however, inconsistencies observed in the field results point to the strong possibility that posterior uncertainties are being influenced by model structural errors, which in turn underlines the fundamental importance of a systematic analysis of such errors in future related studies.

Le système d'information dirigeant des Hospices: conception générale

[Table des matières] 1. Introduction. 2. Structure (introduction, hiérarchie). 3. Processus (généralités, flux de clientèle, flux d'activité, flux de ressources, aspects temporels, aspects comptables). 4. Descripteurs (qualification, quantification). 5. Indicateurs (définitions, productivité, pertinence, adéquation, efficacité, effectivité, efficience, standards). 6. Bibliographie.