ALLOMETRIC MODELS FOR ESTIMATING ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS AND BIOMASS ALLOCATION OF CAPIXINGUI TREES (Croton floribundus Spreng.) IN AN AGRISILVICULTURAL SYSTEM

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to select allometric models to estimate total and pooled aboveground biomass of 4.5-year-old capixingui trees established in an agrisilvicultural system. Aboveground biomass distribution of capixingui was also evaluated. Single- (diameter at breast height [DBH] or crown diameter or stem diameter as the independent variable) and double-entry (DBH or crown diameter or stem diameter and total height as independent variables) models were studied. The estimated total biomass was 17.3 t.ha-1, corresponding to 86.6 kg per tree. All models showed a good fit to the data (R2ad > 0.85) for bole, branches, and total biomass. DBH-based models presented the best residual distribution. Model lnW = b0 + b1* lnDBH can be recommended for aboveground biomass estimation. Lower coefficients were obtained for leaves (R2ad > 82%). Biomass distribution followed the order: bole>branches>leaves. Bole biomass percentage decreased with increasing DBH of the trees, whereas branch biomass increased.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE VARIABLES, TRUNK GROWTH RATE AND WOOD DENSITY OF Eucalyptus grandis W. Mill ex Maiden TREES

ABSTRACT Climatic conditions stimulates the cambial activity of plants, and cause significant changes in trunk diameter growth and wood characteristics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate variables in the diameter growth rate of the stem and the wood density of Eucalyptus grandis trees in different classes of the basal area. A total of 25 Eucalyptus trees at 22 months of age were selected according to the basal area distribution. Dendrometer bands were installed at the height of 1.30 meters (DBH) to monitor the diameter growth every 14 days, for 26 months. After measuring growth, the trees were felled and wood discs were removed at the DBH level to determine the radial density profile through x-ray microdensitometry and then re-scale the average values every 14 days. Climatic variables for the monitoring period were obtained and grouped every 14 days. The effect of the climate variables was determined by maximum and minimum growth periods in assessing trunk growth. These growth periods were related with precipitation, average temperature and relative air humidity. The re-scaled wood density values, calculated using the radial growth of the tree trunks measured accurately with steel dendrometers, enabled the determination of the relationship of small changes in wood density and the effect of the climatic variations and growth rate of eucalyptus tree trunks. A high sensitivity of the wood density to variation in precipitation levels was found.

Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Response of young 'Tahiti' lime trees to different irrigation levels

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of different irrigation levels on canopy and root growth, productivity, and fruit quality of young ‘Tahiti’ acid lime trees. The experiment was installed in Piracicaba, Brazil in a 1.0-ha orchard plot with ‘Tahiti’ acid lime trees, grafted on ‘Swingle’ citrumelo rootstock and carried out from August of 2002 to May 2005. Each treatment was assigned to a drip irrigation level, based on ETc as follows: T1) non-irrigated, T2) 25%, T3) 50%, T4) 75% and T5) 100% of ETc determined by weighing lysimeter presented in the orchard plot. Trunk diameter and tree height were evaluated monthly. The roots were evaluated when the trees were 30 and 48 months old. The yield and fruit quality was evaluated in 2004 and 2005. The results showed that irrigation did not influence root distribution in depth, and trees irrigated with 75% and 100% ETc showed horizontal root distribution concentrated until 0.6 m from the trunk. Irrigation did not improve the quality of fruit. Yield increased in all irrigated treatment, but the most efficient yield mean per unit of water applied was the 25% ETc treatment.

A decision support system for cost determination in grain storage facility operations

Many research works have being carried out on analyzing grain storage facility costs; however a few of them had taken into account the analysis of factors associated to all pre-processing and storage steps. The objective of this work was to develop a decision support system for determining the grain storage facility costs and utilization fees in grain storage facilities. The data of a CONAB storage facility located in Ponta Grossa - PR, Brazil, was used as input of the system developed to analyze its specific characteristics, such as amount of product received and stored throughout the year, hourly capacity of drying, cleaning, and receiving, and dispatch. By applying the decision support system, it was observed that the reception and expedition costs were exponentially reduced as the turnover rate of the storage increased. The cleaning and drying costs increased linearly with grain initial moisture. The storage cost increased exponentially as the occupancy rate of the storage facility decreased.

Spatial variability of yield and other parameters associated with pear trees

In the last few years, precision agriculture has become commonly used with many crops, particularly cereals, and there is also interest in precision horticulture. Pear is a seasonal fruit and well appreciated by Brazilian people, although it is mostly imported. Brazilian farmers are nowadays trying to increase pear production. Thus, this research aimed at mapping the yield of pear trees in order to study the spatial variability of yield as well as its comparison with spatial variability of soil and plant attributes. The experimental field had 146 pear trees, variety 'Pêra d'água', distributed on a 1.24 ha. Four harvests were performed according to the fruit ripening and from each tree; only the ripe fruits were harvested. In each harvest, all the fruits were weighed and the total yield was obtained based on the sum of each harvest. The soil attributes analyzed were P, K, Ca, Mg, pH in CaCl2, C, Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn and base saturation, and the plant attributes were fruit length, diameter and yield. Yield had low correlation with soil and plant attributes. An index of spatial variability was suggested in this study and helped in classifying levels of spatial dependence of the various soil and plant attributes: very low (fruit length); low (P, fruit diameter), medium (Mg, pH, Cu, Zn, Fe), high (Ca, K, base saturation and yield), and very high (Mn and C).

Water storage in wetted strips under irrigated coffee trees with different criteria of irrigation management

The increasing demand for water resources accentuates the need to reduce water waste through a more appropriate irrigation management. In the particular case of irrigated coffee planting, which in recent years presented growth with the predominance of drip irrigation, the improvement of drip irrigation management techniques is a necessity. The proper management of drip irrigation depends on the knowledge of the spatial pattern of soil moisture distribution inside the wetted strip formed under the irrigation lines. In this study, grids of 24 tensiometers were used to determine the water storage within the wetted strip formed under drippers, with a 3.78 L h-1 discharge, evenly spaced by 0.4 m, subjected to two different management criteria (fixed irrigation interval and 60 kPa tension). Estimates of storage based on a one-dimensional analysis, that only considers depth variations, were compared with two-dimensional estimates. The results indicate that for high-frequency irrigation the one-dimensional analysis is not appropriate. However, under less frequent irrigation, the two-dimensional analysis is dispensable, being the one-dimensional sufficient for calculating the water volume stored in the wetted strip.

Water requirement and yield of fig trees under different drip irrigation management

This work aimed to study the effect of drip irrigation management on growth and yield of the 'Roxo de Valinhos' fig tree (Ficus carica L.), at three years old, and to determine crop coefficients (Kc) and its water requirement (ETc) under Baixada Fluminense climate and soil conditions, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The study was carried out in the experimental area of SIPA (Sistema Integrado de Produção Agroecológica) in Seropédica, Rio de Janeiro State, from July 2011 to May 2012. The experimental area was divided in two blocks, named B1 (sandy clay loam texture) and B2 (loamy sand texture). In each block, irrigation frequencies (IF) of two (T1) and four days (T2) were evaluated, as well as the irrigation absence (T3). Irrigation management and water consumption determination were performed through the soil water balance, using the TDR technique. Plant growth was not affected by IF, differing only in the number of produced internodes. For both soil textures, the mean Kc was 0.60, with a significant difference (p<0.05) only for IF. The estimated mean yield showed no significant differences between both textural classes, ranging from 6,612 kg ha-1 (T3) to 8,554 kg ha-1 (T1). This study indicates the importance of irrigation frequency in the irrigation management of fig trees cultivated in soils with different physical characteristics.

Improving Transportation and Warehousing Efficiency with Simulation-Based Decision Support Systems

Transportation and warehousing are large and growing sectors in the society, and their efficiency is of high importance. Transportation also has a large share of global carbondioxide emissions, which are one the leading causes of anthropogenic climate warming. Various countries have agreed to decrease their carbon emissions according to the Kyoto protocol. Transportation is the only sector where emissions have steadily increased since the 1990s, which highlights the importance of transportation efficiency. The efficiency of transportation and warehousing can be improved with the help of simulations, but models alone are not sufficient. This research concentrates on the use of simulations in decision support systems. Three main simulation approaches are used in logistics: discrete-event simulation, systems dynamics, and agent-based modeling. However, individual simulation approaches have weaknesses of their own. Hybridization (combining two or more approaches) can improve the quality of the models, as it allows using a different method to overcome the weakness of one method. It is important to choose the correct approach (or a combination of approaches) when modeling transportation and warehousing issues. If an inappropriate method is chosen (this can occur if the modeler is proficient in only one approach or the model specification is not conducted thoroughly), the simulation model will have an inaccurate structure, which in turn will lead to misleading results. This issue can further escalate, as the decision-maker may assume that the presented simulation model gives the most useful results available, even though the whole model can be based on a poorly chosen structure. In this research it is argued that simulation- based decision support systems need to take various issues into account to make a functioning decision support system. The actual simulation model can be constructed using any (or multiple) approach, it can be combined with different optimization modules, and there needs to be a proper interface between the model and the user. These issues are presented in a framework, which simulation modelers can use when creating decision support systems. In order for decision-makers to fully benefit from the simulations, the user interface needs to clearly separate the model and the user, but at the same time, the user needs to be able to run the appropriate runs in order to analyze the problems correctly. This study recommends that simulation modelers should start to transfer their tacit knowledge to explicit knowledge. This would greatly benefit the whole simulation community and improve the quality of simulation-based decision support systems as well. More studies should also be conducted by using hybrid models and integrating simulations with Graphical Information Systems.

Improving strategic decision-making with simulation based decision support systems

Combating climate change is one of the key tasks of humanity in the 21st century. One of the leading causes is carbon dioxide emissions due to usage of fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources should be used instead of relying on oil, gas, and coal. In Finland a significant amount of energy is produced using wood. The usage of wood chips is expected to increase in the future significantly, over 60 %. The aim of this research is to improve understanding over the costs of wood chip supply chains. This is conducted by utilizing simulation as the main research method. The simulation model utilizes both agent-based modelling and discrete event simulation to imitate the wood chip supply chain. This thesis concentrates on the usage of simulation based decision support systems in strategic decision-making. The simulation model is part of a decision support system, which connects the simulation model to databases but also provides a graphical user interface for the decisionmaker. The main analysis conducted with the decision support system concentrates on comparing a traditional supply chain to a supply chain utilizing specialized containers. According to the analysis, the container supply chain is able to have smaller costs than the traditional supply chain. Also, a container supply chain can be more easily scaled up due to faster emptying operations. Initially the container operations would only supply part of the fuel needs of a power plant and it would complement the current supply chain. The model can be expanded to include intermodal supply chains as due to increased demand in the future there is not enough wood chips located close to current and future power plants.

Fraud detection in the banking sector : a multi-agent approach

Fraud is an increasing phenomenon as shown in many surveys carried out by leading international consulting companies in the last years. Despite the evolution of electronic payments and hacking techniques there is still a strong human component in fraud schemes. Conflict of interest in particular is the main contributing factor to the success of internal fraud. In such cases anomaly detection tools are not always the best instruments, since the fraud schemes are based on faking documents in a context dominated by lack of controls, and the perpetrators are those ones who should control possible irregularities. In the banking sector audit team experts can count only on their experience, whistle blowing and the reports sent by their inspectors. The Fraud Interactive Decision Expert System (FIDES), which is the core of this research, is a multi-agent system built to support auditors in evaluating suspicious behaviours and to speed up the evaluation process in order to detect or prevent fraud schemes. The system combines Think-map, Delphi method and Attack trees and it has been built around audit team experts and their needs. The output of FIDES is an attack tree, a tree-based diagram to ”systematically categorize the different ways in which a system can be attacked”. Once the attack tree is built, auditors can choose the path they perceive as more suitable and decide whether or not to start the investigation. The system is meant for use in the future to retrieve old cases in order to match them with new ones and find similarities. The retrieving features of the system will be useful to simplify the risk management phase, since similar countermeasures adopted for past cases might be useful for present ones. Even though FIDES has been built with the banking sector in mind, it can be applied in all those organisations, like insurance companies or public organizations, where anti-fraud activity is based on a central anti-fraud unit and a reporting system.

Public and Private Sector Decision Makers Within the Rail Baltica Growth Corridor

Transport volumes have increased and will continue to increase in European Union. Even though the growth has not been equal between different transport modes. Most of the growth has been faced on road transport. European Union aims to balance the unbalanced market shares between the modes by gaining and supporting the competitiveness of railway and waterway transport. In EU railway transportation is seen as solution to increase safety in traffic and decrease the environmental impacts of transportation. The aim of this research is to figure out how it is possible to decrease the environmental impacts by the technology already in use. Main focus of this research is in intermodality and combining the road and railway transportation. This study aims also to figure out demands and expectations towards new Rail Baltica railway route connecting Tallinn and Berlin. The research is conducted by performing a literature review about decreasing environmental impacts and combining road and rail transport. Another viewpoint is taken from the possible effects of tourism to the passenger transport on rails. Knowledge gained by literature review is deepened by additional internet questionnaire study and expert interview study. In decreasing the environmental impacts of transportation electric trains are definitely the best option providing that the electricity is generated from renewable or carbon dioxide free sources. Decrease of environmental impacts has been reached also with acceptance of larger road transport vehicles. According to interviewed passenger transport experts, the whole route from Tallinn to Berlin may not be convenient to be used in passenger transport, just because the route is too long.. In EU freight is transported mainly with semi-trailer combinations, and that is why it could be logical if huckepack trains would be used on Rail Baltica. Huckepack train allows semi-trailers to be transported on rails with time efficient loading-unloading process. Overall, Rail Baltica project is experienced as a future-oriented one and new railway alignment is seen as great alternative option for transport modes using fossil fuels.