Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

Essays on the Economics of Conflict and Migration

Les conflits civils sont des événements dramatiques qui poussent les individus hors de leurs pays d'origine. Mais si l'émigration était elle-même une force pacificatrice? Dans les deux premiers chapitres, je me suis intéressée à l'impact de l'émigration sur l'incidence des conflits civils dans les pays d'origine. Tout d'abord, je construis un modèle théorique d'équilibre général, dans lequel le niveau de conflit d'équilibre est déterminé par la ratio de combattants dans l'économie. Dans ce modèle, l'émigration décourage les conflits en réduisant les gains d'une rébellion, tout en augmentant le coût d'opportunité des combats. La principale prédiction du modèle est que le conflit diminue avec le niveau du salaire étranger net des coûts de migration. Dans le deuxième chapitre, je teste cette prédiction empiriquement. En utilisant une variable instrumentale, je démontre que l'émigration vers les pays développés diminue l'incidence de guerres civiles dans les pays d'origine. Ces résultats prouvent qu'en ouvrant leurs frontières, les pays d'accueil pourraient contribuer à sauver des vies, aussi bien celles des migrants que celles des habitants restés dans leur pays. De plus, les conflits civils tendent à détruire des sociétés en traumatisant les personnes touchées, augmentant ainsi le risque des conflits futurs. Afin de mieux comprendre ce cercle vicieux et de pouvoir y remédier, le troisième chapitre détermine si les enfants ayant vécu la guerre ont une tendance à être plus violent que des co-nationaux nés après la guerre. L'analyse se concentre sur les demandeurs d'asile en Suisse : Cette population est intéressante puisque l'allocation des demandeurs d'asile entre cantons est aléatoire, ce qui prévient le choix d'un canton avec un taux de criminalité plus élevé. Les résultats démontrent un effet de traumatisme causé par la guerre augmentant ainsi le risque de criminalité dans la vie adulte. Cependant, l'analyse de politiques publiques montre que la mise en place de politiques judicieuses permet d'éviter les conséquences de l'exposition à la guerre. En particulier, en offrant aux nouveaux arrivants l'accès au marché de travail ainsi que des perspectives à long-terme, la Suisse peut éliminer complètement l'effet du traumatisme sur la criminalité.

Assessment of Environmental Impacts of Power Generation

Through indisputable evidence of climate change and its link to the greenhouse gas emissions comes the necessity for change in energy production infrastructure during the coming decades. Through political conventions and restrictions energy industry is pushed toward using bigger share of renewable energy sources as energy supply. In addition to climate change, sustainable energy supply is another major issue for future development plans, but neither of these should come with unbearable price. All the power production types have environmental effects as well as strengths and weaknesses. Although each change comes with a price, right track in minimising the environmental impacts and energy supply security can be found by combining all possible low-carbon technologies and by improving energy efficiency in all sectors, for creating a new power production infrastructure of tolerable energy price and of minor environmental effects. GEMIS-Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems is a life-cycle analysis program which was used in this thesis to make indicative energy models for Finland’s future energy supply. Results indicate that the energy supply must comprise both high capacity nuclear power as well as large variation of renewable energy sources for minimization of all environmental effects and keeping energy price reasonable.

Developing the environmental marketing of an industrial company

The objective of this study was to examine how the customers of Larox Flowsys value environmental issues and how environmental issues affect their purchasing behaviour. A comparison between Larox peristaltic pumps and competing pump brands and types was also made in order to find out whether LPP pumps possess some more environmentally beneficial features that other pumps do not have. Finally, if the answers to the first two research questions show that a need for a new marketing message does exist, then the final stage is to select the most appropriate environmental arguments for Larox Flowsys. The empirical data in the study was collected from several different sources, but the main sources were the customer interviews and the outsourced market research. The data was analysed mainly by using content analysis, but theme formation and quantification were also utilized. The results showed that the customers do not consider environmental issues as a main purchasing criterion, but they may well be the criterion that differentiates the product from competing ones. The comparison proved that LPP pumps do possess some significant environmental benefits over competing pumps and therefore, the prerequisite for the use of environmental arguments exists. The final stage in the study was to select the proper environmental arguments for Larox Flowsys.

Capillary thermal desorption unit for near real-time analysis of VOCs at sub-trace levels. Application to the analysis of environmental air contamination and breath samples

A capillary microtrap thermal desorption module is developed for near real-time analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at sub-ppbv levels in air samples. The device allows the direct injection of the thermally desorbed VOCs into a chromatographic column. It does not use a second cryotrap to focalize the adsorbed compounds before entering the separation column so reducing the formation of artifacts. The connection of the microtrap to a GC–MS allows the quantitative determination of VOCs in less than 40 min with detection limits of between 5 and 10 pptv (25 °C and 760 mmHg), which correspond to 19–43 ng m−3, using sampling volumes of 775 cm3. The microtrap is applied to the analysis of environmental air contamination in different laboratories of our faculty. The results obtained indicate that most volatile compounds are easily diffused through the air and that they also may contaminate the surrounding areas when the habitual safety precautions (e.g., working under fume hoods) are used during the manipulation of solvents. The application of the microtrap to the analysis of VOCs in breath samples suggest that 2,5-dimethylfuran may be a strong indicator of a person's smoking status

The influence of genetic and environmental factors among MDMA users in cognitive performance

This study is aimed to clarify the association between MDMA cumulative use and cognitive dysfunction, and the potential role of candidate genetic polymorphisms in explaining individual differences in the cognitive effects of MDMA. Gene polymorphisms related to reduced serotonin function, poor competency of executive control and memory consolidation systems, and high enzymatic activity linked to bioactivation of MDMA to neurotoxic metabolites may contribute to explain variations in the cognitive impact of MDMA across regular users of this drug. Sixty ecstasy polydrug users, 110 cannabis users and 93 non-drug users were assessed using cognitive measures of Verbal Memory (California Verbal Learning Test, CVLT), Visual Memory (Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure Test, ROCFT), Semantic Fluency, and Perceptual Attention (Symbol Digit Modalities Test, SDMT). Participants were also genotyped for polymorphisms within the 5HTT, 5HTR2A, COMT, CYP2D6, BDNF, and GRIN2B genes using polymerase chain reaction and TaqMan polymerase assays. Lifetime cumulative MDMA use was significantly associated with poorer performance on visuospatial memory and perceptual attention. Heavy MDMA users (>100 tablets lifetime use) interacted with candidate gene polymorphisms in explaining individual differences in cognitive performance between MDMA users and controls. MDMA users carrying COMT val/val and SERT s/s had poorer performance than paired controls on visuospatial attention and memory, and MDMA users with CYP2D6 ultra-rapid metabolizers performed worse than controls on semantic fluency. Both MDMA lifetime use and gene-related individual differences influence cognitive dysfunction in ecstasy users.

EDTA: the chelating agent under environmental scrutiny

The chelating agent EDTA (ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid) is a compound of massive use world wide with household and industrial applications, being one of the anthropogenic compounds with highest concentrations in inland European waters. In this review, the applications of EDTA and its behavior once it has been released into the environment are described. At a laboratory scale, degradation of EDTA has been achieved; however, in natural environments studies detect poor biodegradability. It is concluded that EDTA behaves as a persistent substance in the environment and that its contribution to heavy metals bioavailability and remobilization processes in the environment is a major concern.

Ultra-trace monitoring of copper in environmental and biological samples by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry after separation and preconcentration by using octadecyl silica membrane disks modified by a new schiff's base

Ultra-trace amounts of Cu(II) were separated and preconcentrated by solid phase extraction on octadecyl-bonded silica membrane disks modified with a new Schiff,s base (Bis- (2-Hydroxyacetophenone) -2,2-dimethyl-1,3-propanediimine) (SBTD) followed by elution and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometric detection. The method was applied as a separation and detection method for copper(II) in environmental and biological samples. Extraction efficiency and the influence of sample matrix, flow rate, pH, and type and minimum amount of stripping acid were investigated. The concentration factor and detection limit of the proposed method are 500 and 12.5 pg mL-1, respectively.

Estudio multidisciplinario del ecosistema manglar en la comunidad tradicional de Curral Velho : Estudio sobre la pesca artesanal y análisis de sus diferencias con la acuicultura del camarón

Curral Velho es una comunitat tradicional, situada al nord-est de Brasil, que manté una relació directa amb els ecosistemes que la envolten. La comunitat depèn del estat de conservació del medi natura, ja que obtenen diferents serveis ecositemics. En aquest territori es desenvolupen dos tipus d’economies amb unes bases molt diferents. Una economia tradicional, desenvolupada per la pròpia comunitat, que es basa en la propietat col·lectiva del territori i en optimitzar a llarg termini els beneficis que s’obtenen del medi; y un altre com la camaronicultura, la base de la qual es la obtenció de beneficis a curt termini i amb un territori de propietat privada. Aquesta superposició de models de producció genera impactes ambientals, i un conflicte socio-ambiental entre la comunitat i els que desenvolupen la camaronicultura. L’objectiu es realitzar un estudi econòmic de la pesca artesanal de Curral Velho caracteritzant manera de viure, creant una base de dades sobre pesca artesanal i elaborant indicador de beneficis econòmics generats per la pesca artesanal. Per contextualitzar els resultats es va fer un anàlisis de les dos economies existents a la comunitat. Els resultats obtinguts en primer lloc són que l’economia d’explotació intensiva aporta més guanys per les persones de la comunitat que tenen un relació directa que les que es dediquen a la pesca artesanal, però es important no aturar-se aquí: s’ha de realitzar un anàlisis més profund. Com a conclusió, la activitat pesquera es més rentable a llarg termini ja que els recursos extrets de manera sostenible i així són il·limitats y accessibles a tota la comunitat. A diferència de la camaronicultura, la pesca artesanal no genera desigualtats socials ni vulneracions dels drets humans. Tot el contrari, genera forts vincles entre els individus de la comunitat basats en el treball en equip i l’aprenentatge vivencial e intergeneracional.

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD), dibenzofurans (PCDF) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB): main sources, environmental behaviour and risk to man and biota

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofuranes (PCDF) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) are types of persistent and bioaccumulating organic pollutants with enhanced chronic toxicity and carcinogenic properties and can be considered as environmental indicators of anthropogenic activities since their occurrence in the environment can always be linked to anthropogenic activities. The present paper reviews the main sources and behaviour of these compounds in the environment as well as the risks they represent to man and biota.

Solid phase extraction of iron and lead in environmental matrices on amberlite xad-1180/pv

A solid phase extraction procedure using Amberlite XAD-1180/Pyrocatechol violet (PV) chelating resin for the determination of iron and lead ions in various environmental samples was established. The procedure is based on the sorption of lead(II) and iron(III) ions onto the resin at pH 9, followed by elution with 1 mol/L HNO3 and determination by flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The influence of alkaline, earth alkaline and some transition metals, as interferents, are discussed. The recoveries for the spiked analytes were greater than 95%. The detection limits for lead and iron by FAAS were 0.37 µg/L and 0.20 µg/L, respectively. Validation of the method described here was performed by using three certified reference materials (SRM 1515 Apple Leaves, SRM 2711 Montana Soil and NRCC-SLRS-4 Riverine Water). The procedure was successfully applied to natural waters and human hair.