Combining follow-up and change data is valid in meta-analyses of continuous outcomes: a meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE To investigate whether it is valid to combine follow-up and change data when conducting meta-analyses of continuous outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Meta-epidemiological study of randomized controlled trials in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee/hip, which assessed patient-reported pain. We calculated standardized mean differences (SMDs) based on follow-up and change data, and pooled within-trial differences in SMDs. We also derived pooled SMDs indicating the largest treatment effect within a trial (optimistic selection of SMDs) and derived pooled SMDs from the estimate indicating the smallest treatment effect within a trial (pessimistic selection of SMDs). RESULTS A total of 21 meta-analyses with 189 trials with 292 randomized comparisons in 41,256 patients were included. On average, SMDs were 0.04 standard deviation units more beneficial when follow-up values were used (difference in SMDs: -0.04; 95% confidence interval: -0.13, 0.06; P=0.44). In 13 meta-analyses (62%), there was a relevant difference in clinical and/or significance level between optimistic and pessimistic pooled SMDs. CONCLUSION On average, there is no relevant difference between follow-up and change data SMDs, and combining these estimates in meta-analysis is generally valid. Decision on which type of data to use when both follow-up and change data are available should be prespecified in the meta-analysis protocol.

Combining sedimentological, trace metal (Mn, Mo) and molecular evidence for reconstructing past water-column redox conditions: The example of meromictic Lake Cadagno (Swiss Alps)

Here, we present sedimentological, trace metal, and molecular evidence for tracking bottom water redox-state conditions during the past 12,500 years in nowadays sulfidic and meromictic Lake Cadagno (Switzerland). A 10.5 m long sediment core from the lake covering the Holocene period was investigated for concentration variations of the trace metals Mn and Mo (XRF core scanning and ICP-MS measurements), and for the presence of anoxygenic phototrophic sulfur bacteria (carotenoid pigment analysis and 16S rDNA real time PCR). Our trace metal analysis documents an oxic-intermediate-sulfidic redox-transition period beginning shortly after the lake formation similar to 12.5 kyr ago. The oxic period is characterized by low sedimentary Mn and Mo concentrations, as well as by the absence of any remnants of anoxygenic phototrophic sulfur bacteria. Enhanced accumulation/preservation of Mn (up to 5.6 wt%) in the sediments indicates an intermediate, Mn-enriched oxygenation state with fluctuating redox conditions during a similar to 2300-year long transition interval between similar to 12.1 and 9.8 kyr BP. We propose that the high Mn concentrations are the result of enhanced Mn2+ leaching from the sediments during reducing conditions and subsequent rapid precipitation of Mn-(oxyhydr) oxide minerals during episodic and short-term water-column mixing events mainly due to flood-induced underflows. At 9800 +/- 130 cal yr BP, a rapid transition to fully sulfidic conditions is indicated by the marked enrichment of Mo in the sediments (up to 490 ppm), accompanied by an abrupt drop in Mn concentrations and the increase of molecular biomarkers that indicate the presence of anoxygenic photosynthetic bacteria in the water column. Persistently high Mo concentrations >80 ppm provide evidence that sulfidic conditions prevailed thereafter until modern times, without any lasting hypolimnetic ventilation and reoxygenation. Hence, Lake Cadagno with its persistently stable chemocline offers a framework to study in great temporal detail over similar to 12 kyr the development of phototrophic sulfur bacteria communities and redox processes in a sulfidic environment, possibly depicting analogous conditions in an ancient ocean. Our study underscores the value of combining sedimentological, geochemical, and microbiological approaches to characterize paleo-environmental and -redox conditions in lacustrine and marine settings.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countriesmaintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystemservices that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories andmethods. This reviewtherefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change,whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Promoting research-user collaboration: an assessment of funding schemes: Fifth NCCR North-South Report on Effectiveness

Donors increasingly require that the research they fund be of benefit for society and the environment. To this end, researchers addressing complex and uncertain problems should work together with research users. This is not always easy: researchers are expected to collaborate with non-academic partners, but are not funded for the additional work. Collaborative research projects often cannot tap the full potential of user engagement. Therefore, specific institutional and organisational conditions are necessary that foresee or even foster research–user engagement; funding schemes are one possible solution. Right from the start, the NCCR North-South programme introduced Partnership Actions for Mitigating Syndromes of Global Change (PAMS). This evaluation assesses the types of collaboration supported by PAMS, as well as the value of PAMS as a funding scheme for collaboration. It compares PAMS with similar funding schemes of other universities, research programmes, or projects, and contains recommendations.

Improving the clinical prediction of psychosis by combining ultra-high risk criteria and cognitive basic symptoms

OBJECTIVE Cognitive impairments are regarded as a core component of schizophrenia. However, the cognitive dimension of psychosis is hardly considered by ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria. Therefore, we studied whether the combination of symptomatic UHR criteria and the basic symptom criterion "cognitive disturbances" (COGDIS) is superior in predicting first-episode psychosis. METHOD In a naturalistic 48-month follow-up study, the conversion rate to first-episode psychosis was studied in 246 outpatients of an early detection of psychosis service (FETZ); thereby, the association between conversion, and the combined and singular use of UHR criteria and COGDIS was compared. RESULTS Patients that met UHR criteria and COGDIS (n=127) at baseline had a significantly higher risk of conversion (hr=0.66 at month 48) and a shorter time to conversion than patients that met only UHR criteria (n=37; hr=0.28) or only COGDIS (n=30; hr=0.23). Furthermore, the risk of conversion was higher for the combined criteria than for UHR criteria (n=164; hr=0.56 at month 48) and COGDIS (n=158; hr=0.56 at month 48) when considered irrespective of each other. CONCLUSIONS Our findings support the merits of considering both COGDIS and UHR criteria in the early detection of persons who are at high risk of developing a first psychotic episode within 48months. Applying both sets of criteria improves sensitivity and individual risk estimation, and may thereby support the development of stage-targeted interventions. Moreover, since the combined approach enables the identification of considerably more homogeneous at-risk samples, it should support both preventive and basic research.

Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative, explorative, and participatory scenario approaches

Competing water demands for household consumption as well as the production of food, energy, and other uses pose challenges for water supply and sustainable development in many parts of the world. Designing creative strategies and learning processes for sustainable water governance is thus of prime importance. While this need is uncontested, suitable approaches still have to be found. In this article we present and evaluate a conceptual approach to scenario building aimed at transdisciplinary learning for sustainable water governance. The approach combines normative, explorative, and participatory scenario elements. This combination allows for adequate consideration of stakeholders’ and scientists’ systems, target, and transformation knowledge. Application of the approach in the MontanAqua project in the Swiss Alps confirmed its high potential for co-producing new knowledge and establishing a meaningful and deliberative dialogue between all actors involved. The iterative and combined approach ensured that stakeholders’ knowledge was adequately captured, fed into scientific analysis, and brought back to stakeholders in several cycles, thereby facilitating learning and co-production of new knowledge relevant for both stakeholders and scientists. However, the approach also revealed a number of constraints, including the enormous flexibility required of stakeholders and scientists in order for them to truly engage in the co-production of new knowledge. Overall, the study showed that shifts from strategic to communicative action are possible in an environment of mutual trust. This ultimately depends on creating conditions of interaction that place scientists’ and stakeholders’ knowledge on an equal footing.

Safety and Feasibility of a Diagnostic Algorithm Combining Clinical Probability, d-Dimer Testing, and Ultrasonography for Suspected Upper Extremity Deep Venous Thrombosis: A Prospective Management Study.

BACKGROUND Although well-established for suspected lower limb deep venous thrombosis, an algorithm combining a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography has not been evaluated for suspected upper extremity deep venous thrombosis (UEDVT). OBJECTIVE To assess the safety and feasibility of a new diagnostic algorithm in patients with clinically suspected UEDVT. DESIGN Diagnostic management study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01324037) SETTING: 16 hospitals in Europe and the United States. PATIENTS 406 inpatients and outpatients with suspected UEDVT. MEASUREMENTS The algorithm consisted of the sequential application of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography. Patients were first categorized as likely or unlikely to have UEDVT; in those with an unlikely score and normal d-dimer levels, UEDVT was excluded. All other patients had (repeated) compression ultrasonography. The primary outcome was the 3-month incidence of symptomatic UEDVT and pulmonary embolism in patients with a normal diagnostic work-up. RESULTS The algorithm was feasible and completed in 390 of the 406 patients (96%). In 87 patients (21%), an unlikely score combined with normal d-dimer levels excluded UEDVT. Superficial venous thrombosis and UEDVT were diagnosed in 54 (13%) and 103 (25%) patients, respectively. All 249 patients with a normal diagnostic work-up, including those with protocol violations (n = 16), were followed for 3 months. One patient developed UEDVT during follow-up, for an overall failure rate of 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0% to 2.2%). LIMITATIONS This study was not powered to show the safety of the substrategies. d-Dimer testing was done locally. CONCLUSION The combination of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography can safely and effectively exclude UEDVT. If confirmed by other studies, this algorithm has potential as a standard approach to suspected UEDVT. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE None.

Cerebral hemodynamic and oxygenation changes induced by inner and heard speech: a study combining functional near-infrared spectroscopy and capnography

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of inner and heard speech on cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation in the anterior prefrontal cortex (PFC) using functional near-infrared spectroscopy and to test whether potential effects were caused by alterations in the arterial carbon dioxide pressure (PaCO2). Twenty-nine healthy adult volunteers performed six different tasks of inner and heard speech according to a randomized crossover design. During the tasks, we generally found a decrease in PaCO2 (only for inner speech), tissue oxygen saturation (StO2), oxyhemoglobin ([O2Hb]), total hemoglobin ([tHb]) concentration and an increase in deoxyhemoglobin concentration ([HHb]). Furthermore, we found significant relations between changes in [O2Hb], [HHb], [tHb], or StO2 and the participants’ age, the baseline PETCO2, or certain speech tasks. We conclude that changes in breathing during the tasks led to lower PaCO2 (hypocapnia) for inner speech. During heard speech, no significant changes in PaCO2 occurred, but the decreases in StO2, [O2Hb], and [tHb] suggest that changes in PaCO2 were also involved here. Different verse types (hexameter and alliteration) led to different changes in [tHb], implying different brain activations. In conclusion, StO2, [O2Hb], [HHb], and [tHb] are affected by interplay of both PaCO2 reactivity and functional brain activity.

Changes in cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation induced by different speech tasks – an assessment by combining functional near‐infrared spectroscopy and capnography

Introduction In several studies, we found that during guided rhythmic speech exercises, a decrease in cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation occurred as the result of a decrease in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the arterial blood (PaCO2) during speaking. To further explore the effect of PaCO2 variations on cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation, the aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of spoken, inner and heard speech tasks on these parameters. Material and Methods Speech tasks included recitation or inner recitation or listening to hexameter, alliteration, prose, or performing mental arithmetic. The following physiological parameters were measured: tissue oxygen saturation (StO2) and absolute concentrations of oxyhemoglobin, deoxyhemoglobin, total hemoglobin (over the left and right anterior prefrontal cortex, using an ISS OxiplexTS frequency domain near-infrared spectrometer) and end-tidal CO2 (PETCO2; using Nellcor N1000 and Datex NORMOCAP capnographs). Statistical analysis was applied to the differences between baseline, 2 tasks, and 3 post-baseline periods. Data of 3 studies with 24, 7 and 29 healthy subjects, respectively, were combined, and linear regression analyses were calculated. Results Linear regression analyses revealed significant relations between changes in oxyhemoglobin, deoxyhemoglobin, total hemoglobin or StO2 and the participants’ age, the baseline PETCO2 or certain speech tasks. While hexameter verses affected changes during the tasks, alliteration verses only affected changes during the recovery phase. Discussion and Conclusion The observed effects in hemodynamics and oxygenation indicate a combination of neurovascular coupling (increased neuronal activity leading to an increase in the cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen resulting in an increase in cerebral flood flow/volume) and CO2 reactivity (increased breathing during speech tasks causing a decrease in PaCO2 leading to vasoconstriction and decrease in cerebral blood flow). The neurovascular coupling characteristics are task-dependent. References Scholkmann F, Gerber U, Wolf M, Wolf U. End-tidal CO2: An important parameter for a correct interpretation in functional brain studies using speech tasks. Neuroimage 2013;66:71-79. Scholkmann F, Wolf M, Wolf U. The effect of inner speech on arterial CO2, cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation – A functional NIRS study. Adv Exp Med Biol 2013;789:81-87.