Model development for capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) habitat in the Jura Mountains (Western Switzerland)

Capercaillie, Tetrao urogallus, is a threatened species in central Europe, and Swiss populations declined 40 to 50 % between 1970 and 1985. Capercaillie are sensitive to forest structure, and loss of habitat is a major cause of their decline. Knowledge of habitat characteristics is therefore essential for capercaillie conservation. Here, we present models predicting capercaillie probability of occurrence, based on relevant structural habitat variables. Models were built using multiple logistic regression analyses on capercaillie presence/absence data. Vegetation survey was carried out in July 1999 in a 170-km2 forested area (Jura mountains, canton de Vaud, western Switzerland) inhabited by capercaillie and presence/absence of the species was assessed according to dropping presence/absence. The survey was based on 10-m-radius sample plots each in a 1-km2 forest patch (n = 76 with capercaillie droppings, n = 80 without). A first model included seven out of 27 measured habitat variables and a second model only four. The latter model best represents practical needs. It includes three variables which had a negative impact on capercaillie presence: tree and shrub covers and spruce, Picea excelsa, shrub cover, and one which had a positive effect: bilberry, Vaccinium myrtillus, cover, highlighting that capaercaillie selected open forest with high bilberry abundance. The model can be used to map potential capercaillie habitat distribution and to manage the habitat in favour of capercaillie (protection and adapted forestry practices) in the Swiss Jura mountains.

Genetic differentiation of common shrew Sorex araneus populations among different alpine valleys revealed by microsatellites

Geographical barriers may affect the genetic structure of populations by reducing gene exchanges among them. In Switzerland, the common shrew Sorer araneus Linnaeus, 1758 is mostly confined to mountainous areas because of a competing sister species, Millet's shrew S. coronatus Millet, 1828, which occupies most of the Swiss lowlands. The structure of common shrew populations found in different alpine valleys may therefore be affected by the topography. Using microsatellites, genetic structuring of seven shrew populations is investigated among four different valleys of, the Swiss Alps. Using the exact G-test, significant genetic structuring is detected between several valleys. Isolation by distance does not fully explain our results. It appears that high mountain ridges (> 2400 m) can significantly reduce gene flow. F- and R-statistics are estimated and compared to the exact G-tests results. Mantel tests show that F-ST, unlike R-ST, is significantly correlated with differentiation. F-ST remains however low even at high differentiation levels, while R-ST has a high variance. We discuss how these results may have wider implications with regards the interpretation of microsatellite data. Finally, a new microsatellite locus, L99, appears to discriminate S. araneus of the Vaud and Cordon races from both S. araneus Valais and S. coronatus.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

Exploring the periodicity of cardiovascular events in Switzerland: variation in deaths and hospitalizations across seasons, day of the week and hour of the day.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to explore the periodical patterns of events and deaths related to cardiovascular disease (CVD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Swiss adults (≥ 18 years). METHODS: Mortality data for period 1969-2007 (N=869,863 CVD events) and hospitalization data for period 1997-2008 (N=959,990 CVD events) were used. The annual, weekly and circadian distribution of CVD-related deaths and events were assessed. Multivariate analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression adjusting for age, gender and calendar year and considering deaths from respiratory diseases, accidents or other causes as competitive events. RESULTS: CVD deaths and hospitalizations occurred less frequently in the summer months. Similar patterns were found for AMI and stroke. No significant weekly variation for CVD deaths was found. Stratification by age and gender showed subjects aged <65 years to present a higher probability of dying on Mondays and Saturday, only for men. This finding was confirmed after multivariate adjustment. Finally, a circadian variation in CVD mortality was observed, with a first peak in the morning (8-12 am) and a smaller second peak in the late afternoon (2-6 pm). This pattern persisted after multivariate adjustment and was more pronounced for AMI than for stroke. CONCLUSION: There is a periodicity of hospitalizations and deaths related to CVD, AMI and stroke in Switzerland. This pattern changes slightly according to the age and sex of the subjects. Although the underlying mechanisms are not fully identified, preventive measures should take into account these aspects to develop better strategies of prevention and management of CVD.

Intentional risk reduction practices of men in Switzerland who have anal intercourse with casual male partners.

OBJECTIVE: To identify prevalence of and factors associated with intentional use of HIV risk reduction practices by men who have sex with men during anal intercourse with casual partners. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey pertaining to the Swiss HIV behavioral surveillance system, using an anonymous self-administered questionnaire in a self-selected sample of men who have sex with men (n = 2953). Multinomial regression was used to estimate factors associated with reporting either "no or inconsistent condom use" or "one or more risk reduction practices" over "consistent condom use." RESULTS: 57.2% reported anal intercourse with casual partner(s) over the last 12 months. Of these, 24.0% declared having used a risk reduction practice (73.8% of those who did not use condoms consistently). HIV-positive people were more likely to have done so. Most predictors were similarly associated to both regression categories. Four significant predictors were common to both regression categories: Internet partner seeking, age, age squared, and the interaction between HIV status positive and number of partners. The only association that differed markedly between the 2 regression categories was having a number of partners above median, significantly associated with the risk reduction category. CONCLUSIONS: Although condom use is the most frequent protection strategy in anal intercourse with casual partners, risk reduction practices are highly prevalent. However, there are no clear differences regarding predictors between risk reduction practices and inconsistent or no condom use. This suggests that risk reduction is an opportunistic response rather than a strategy per se.

The determinants of sport participation in Switzerland

This paper aims at investigating the socio-cultural factors that affect leisure-time sport participation in Switzerland. Data drawn from 8 waves of the Swiss Household Panel is used to evaluate a probit model with random effects, that takes into account the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the respondents. In line with existing literature, findings from the multivariate analysis show inequalities in sport involvement in Switzerland. These are significantly related to age, income, education, citizenship and cultural aspects. Appropriate and targeted policies promoting participation in sports among the community can be found on the basis of the critical modifiers in the model and their impact.

La Generation Sandwich en Suisse Romande: mieux comprendre les facteurs associés avec la santé perçue afin de mieux agir en promotion de la santé [Sandwich Generation in Roman Switzerland : a better understanding of factors linked with perceived health for better acting in health promotion].

The so-called < Sandwich Generation > (SG) is characterized by concurrent and competing professional, familial, and informal caregiving workloads. These stressors pose potential health risks. However, the current knowledge about SG characteristics and perceived state of health are insufficient to allow occupational health nurses to develop evidence-based interventions designed for health promotion. We aimed to describe this population and examine the relationships between these coexisting workloads and their perceived health. This study is based on a descriptive, correlational design. Employees of a Swiss public administration completed an electronic questionnaire. Of 844 respondents, 23 % are SG members. Ages of frailed parents or parents-in-law, co-residence with the latters, children still living at home predict that employees could be members of the SG. Perceived physical health status of SG members is rated better than mental health status. The heterogeneity of SG is reflected in three clusters. Finally, physical health score is the only that differs from the other health scores adjusting for clusters and sex. This study provides a foundation for developing preventive interventions targeting the SG.

Un "régime méditerranéen" bon à penser : la lisibilité sociale et médicale des pratiques alimentaires des migrants italiens aux Etats-Unis et en Suisse (20e siècle) = The good "Mediterranean diet" : medical and social readability of food practices among Italian migrants in the United-States and Switzerland (20th century)

[Ressource électronique] : open access journal

Prévention du sida chez les toxicomanes en Suisse: une évolution encourageante. [Prevention of AIDS in drug addicts in Switzerland: an encouraging development].

Switzerland has adopted a prevention strategy including the promotion of non-sharing injection material and use of condoms. The access to sterile equipment has been made easier, but regional differences still exist. Studies conducted between 1989 and 1992 among drug users in different Swiss regions are reviewed in order to examine if progress in prevention occurred. Syringe sharing diminished everywhere, but rather high sharing rates persist where sterile material is less accessible. Condom use increased, but the situation is still unsatisfactory considering the high HIV prevalence among i.v. drug users. Where several surveys have been conducted consecutively, a stabilization of HIV prevalence was observed. This suggests a slowing down of the progression of the epidemic among drug users. These results, obtained in few years, are encouraging in the light of the pessimism which prevailed at the beginning of the epidemic about the ability of drug users to adopt preventive behaviour.