Potential Cost-effectiveness of Early Identification of Hospital-acquired Infection in Critically Ill Patients.

RATIONALE: Limitations in methods for the rapid diagnosis of hospital-acquired infections often delay initiation of effective antimicrobial therapy. New diagnostic approaches offer potential clinical and cost-related improvements in the management of these infections. OBJECTIVES: We developed a decision modeling framework to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of a rapid biomarker assay to identify hospital-acquired infection in high-risk patients earlier than standard diagnostic testing. METHODS: The framework includes parameters representing rates of infection, rates of delayed appropriate therapy, and impact of delayed therapy on mortality, along with assumptions about diagnostic test characteristics and their impact on delayed therapy and length of stay. Parameter estimates were based on contemporary, published studies and supplemented with data from a four-site, observational, clinical study. Extensive sensitivity analyses were performed. The base-case analysis assumed 17.6% of ventilated patients and 11.2% of nonventilated patients develop hospital-acquired infection and that 28.7% of patients with hospital-acquired infection experience delays in appropriate antibiotic therapy with standard care. We assumed this percentage decreased by 50% (to 14.4%) among patients with true-positive results and increased by 50% (to 43.1%) among patients with false-negative results using a hypothetical biomarker assay. Cost of testing was set at $110/d. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, among ventilated patients, daily diagnostic testing starting on admission reduced inpatient mortality from 12.3 to 11.9% and increased mean costs by $1,640 per patient, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $21,389 per life-year saved. Among nonventilated patients, inpatient mortality decreased from 7.3 to 7.1% and costs increased by $1,381 with diagnostic testing. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $42,325 per life-year saved. Threshold analyses revealed the probabilities of developing hospital-acquired infection in ventilated and nonventilated patients could be as low as 8.4 and 9.8%, respectively, to maintain incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than $50,000 per life-year saved. CONCLUSIONS: Development and use of serial diagnostic testing that reduces the proportion of patients with delays in appropriate antibiotic therapy for hospital-acquired infections could reduce inpatient mortality. The model presented here offers a cost-effectiveness framework for future test development.

The quality of financial information in the extractive industries: a value relevance analysis

The extractive industry is characterized by high levels of risk and uncertainty. These attributes create challenges when applying traditional accounting concepts (such as the revenue recognition and matching concepts) to the preparation of financial statements in the industry. The International Accounting Standards Board (2010) states that the objective of general purpose financial statements is to provide useful financial information to assist the capital allocation decisions of existing and potential providers of capital. The usefulness of information is defined as being relevant and faithfully represented so as to best aid in the investment decisions of capital providers. Value relevance research utilizes adaptations of the Ohlson (1995) to assess the attribute of value relevance which is one part of the attributes resulting in useful information. This study firstly examines the value relevance of the financial information disclosed in the financial reports of extractive firms. The findings reveal that the value relevance of information disclosed in the financial reports depends on the circumstances of the firm including sector, size and profitability. Traditional accounting concepts such as the matching concept can be ineffective when applied to small firms who are primarily engaged in nonproduction activities that involve significant levels of uncertainty such as exploration activities or the development of sites. Standard setting bodies such as the International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board have addressed the financial reporting challenges in the extractive industry by allowing a significant amount of accounting flexibility in industryspecific accounting standards, particularly in relation to the accounting treatment of exploration and evaluation expenditure. Therefore, secondly this study examines whether the choice of exploration accounting policy has an effect on the value relevance of information disclosed in the financial reports. The findings show that, in general, the Successful Efforts method produces value relevant information in the financial reports of profitable extractive firms. However, specifically in the oil & gas sector, the Full Cost method produces value relevant asset disclosures if the firm is lossmaking. This indicates that investors in production and non-production orientated firms have different information needs and these needs cannot be simultaneously fulfilled by a single accounting policy. In the mining sector, a preference by large profitable mining companies towards a more conservative policy than either the Full Cost or Successful Efforts methods does not result in more value relevant information being disclosed in the financial reports. This finding supports the fact that the qualitative characteristic of prudence is a form of bias which has a downward effect on asset values. The third aspect of this study is an examination of the effect of corporate governance on the value relevance of disclosures made in the financial reports of extractive firms. The findings show that the key factor influencing the value relevance of financial information is the ability of the directors to select accounting policies which reflect the economic substance of the particular circumstances facing the firms in an effective way. Corporate governance is found to have an effect on value relevance, particularly in the oil & gas sector. However, there is no significant difference between the exploration accounting policy choices made by directors of firms with good systems of corporate governance and those with weak systems of corporate governance.

Ecuadorian migration and family strategies of social mobility: dialectic relation between emotional and financial capital

This text deals with transnational strategies of social mobility in Ecuadorian migrant households in Spain. We apply the capital accumulation model (Moser, 2009) for this purpose. The main target of this article is, beyond thinking in terms of capital stock and accumulation, the analysis in depth of the dynamics of the different types of capital, that is to say, how they interact with each other in the framework of the social mobility strategies of the migrants and their families. We are bringing into light the way some households adopt investing decisions in capitals that don't translate into any addition or earnings in all cases, on the contrary, concentrating all their efforts on the accumulation of a certain asset they may, in some cases, lead to a loss of another. We will concentrate our analysis primarily on the dynamics between the physical and financial capital and the social and emotional capital, showing the tensions produced between these two types of assets. At the same time, we will highlight how migrants negotiate their family strategies of social mobility in the transnational area. Our study is based in empirical material obtained from qualitative fieldwork (in-depth interviews) with families of migrants in the urban district of Turubamba Bajo -(south of Quito) and in Madrid. A series of households were selected where interviews were carried out in the country of origin as well as in the context of immigration, with different family members, analysing the transnational social and economic strategies of families of migrant members. Family members of migrants established in Spain were interviewed in Quito, as well as key informants in the district (school teachers, nursery members of the staff, etc.). The research was framed within the projects "Impact of migration on the development: gender and transnationalism", Ministry of Science and Innovation (SEJ2007/63179) (Laura Oso, dir. 2007-2010),"Gender, transnationalism and intergenerational strategies of social mobility", Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (FEM2011/26210) (Laura Oso, dir. 201-1-2015) and “Gender, Crossed Mobilities and Transnational Dynamics”, Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (FEM2015-67164).

Cost-effectiveness of zoledronic acid and strontium-89 as bone protecting treatments in addition to chemotherapy in patients with metastatic castrate-refractory prostate cancer: results from the TRAPEZE trial (ISRCTN 12808747)

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding zoledronic acid or strontium-89 to standard docetaxel chemotherapy for patients with castrate-refractory prostate cancer (CRPC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on resource use and quality of life for 707 patients collected prospectively in the TRAPEZE 2 × 2 factorial randomised trial (ISRCTN 12808747) were used to assess the cost-effectiveness of i) zoledronic acid versus no zoledronic acid (ZA vs. no ZA), and ii) strontium-89 versus no strontium-89 (Sr89 vs. no Sr89). Costs were estimated from the perspective of the National Health Service in the UK and included expenditures for trial treatments, concomitant medications, and use of related hospital and primary care services. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated according to patients' responses to the generic EuroQol EQ-5D-3L instrument, which evaluates health status. Results are expressed as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves.

RESULTS: The per-patient cost for ZA was £12 667, £251 higher than the equivalent cost in the no ZA group. Patients in the ZA group had on average 0.03 QALYs more than their counterparts in no ZA group. The ICER for this comparison was £8 005. Sr89 was associated with a cost of £13 230, £1365 higher than no Sr89, and a gain of 0.08 QALYs compared to no Sr89. The ICER for Sr89 was £16 884. The probabilities of ZA and Sr89 being cost-effective were 0.64 and 0.60, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: The addition of bone-targeting treatments to standard chemotherapy led to a small improvement in QALYs for a modest increase in cost (or cost-savings). ZA and Sr89 resulted in ICERs below conventional willingness-to-pay per QALY thresholds, suggesting that their addition to chemotherapy may represent a cost-effective use of resources.

Exploring the effects of a universal classroom management training programme on teacher and child behaviour: a group randomised controlled trial and cost analysis

Teachers frequently struggle to cope with conduct problems in the classroom. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of the Incredible Years Teacher Classroom Management Training Programme for improving teacher competencies and child adjustment. The study involved a group randomised controlled trial which included 22 teachers and 217 children (102 boys and 115 girls). The average age of children included in the study was 5.3 years (standard deviation = 0.89). Teachers were randomly allocated to an intervention group (n = 11 teachers; 110 children) or a waiting-list control group (n = 11; 107 children). The sample also included 63 ‘high-risk’ children (33 intervention; 30 control), who scored above the cut-off (>12) on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire for abnormal socioemotional and behavioural difficulties. Teacher and child behaviours were assessed at baseline and 6 months later using psychometric and observational measures. Programme delivery costs were also analysed. Results showed positive changes in teachers’ self-reported use of positive classroom management strategies (effect size = 0.56), as well as negative classroom management strategies (effect size = −0.43). Teacher reports also highlight improvements in the classroom behaviour of the high-risk group of children, while the estimated cost of delivering the Incredible Years Teacher Classroom Management Training Programme was modest. However, analyses of teacher and child observations were largely non-significant. A need for further research exploring the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Incredible Years Teacher Classroom Management Training Programme is indicated.

Capital 2.0 capital formation and legal risk in a new global economic order from fiat to exit: including case studies of the proposed transatlantic trade and investment partnership between the United States and the European Union and the financing relation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China

Following the intrinsically linked balance sheets in his Capital Formation Life Cycle, Lukas M. Stahl explains with his Triple A Model of Accounting, Allocation and Accountability the stages of the Capital Formation process from FIAT to EXIT. Based on the theoretical foundations of legal risk laid by the International Bar Association with the help of Roger McCormick and legal scholars such as Joanna Benjamin, Matthew Whalley and Tobias Mahler, and founded on the basis of Wesley Hohfeld’s category theory of jural relations, Stahl develops his mutually exclusive Four Determinants of Legal Risk of Law, Lack of Right, Liability and Limitation. Those Four Determinants of Legal Risk allow us to apply, assess, and precisely describe the respective legal risk at all stages of the Capital Formation Life Cycle as demonstrated in case studies of nine industry verticals of the proposed and currently negotiated Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the United States of America and the European Union, TTIP, as well as in the case of the often cited financing relation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Having established the Four Determinants of Legal Risk and its application to the Capital Formation Life Cycle, Stahl then explores the theoretical foundations of capital formation, their historical basis in classical and neo-classical economics and its forefathers such as The Austrians around Eugen von Boehm-Bawerk, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich von Hayek and most notably and controversial, Karl Marx, and their impact on today’s exponential expansion of capital formation. Starting off with the first pillar of his Triple A Model, Accounting, Stahl then moves on to explain the Three Factors of Capital Formation, Man, Machines and Money and shows how “value-added” is created with respect to the non-monetary capital factors of human resources and industrial production. Followed by a detailed analysis discussing the roles of the Three Actors of Monetary Capital Formation, Central Banks, Commercial Banks and Citizens Stahl readily dismisses a number of myths regarding the creation of money providing in-depth insight into the workings of monetary policy makers, their institutions and ultimate beneficiaries, the corporate and consumer citizens. In his second pillar, Allocation, Stahl continues his analysis of the balance sheets of the Capital Formation Life Cycle by discussing the role of The Five Key Accounts of Monetary Capital Formation, the Sovereign, Financial, Corporate, Private and International account of Monetary Capital Formation and the associated legal risks in the allocation of capital pursuant to his Four Determinants of Legal Risk. In his third pillar, Accountability, Stahl discusses the ever recurring Crisis-Reaction-Acceleration-Sequence-History, in short: CRASH, since the beginning of the millennium starting with the dot-com crash at the turn of the millennium, followed seven years later by the financial crisis of 2008 and the dislocations in the global economy we are facing another seven years later today in 2015 with several sordid debt restructurings under way and hundred thousands of refugees on the way caused by war and increasing inequality. Together with the regulatory reactions they have caused in the form of so-called landmark legislation such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, the JOBS Act of 2012 or the introduction of the Basel Accords, Basel II in 2004 and III in 2010, the European Financial Stability Facility of 2010, the European Stability Mechanism of 2012 and the European Banking Union of 2013, Stahl analyses the acceleration in size and scope of crises that appears to find often seemingly helpless bureaucratic responses, the inherent legal risks and the complete lack of accountability on part of those responsible. Stahl argues that the order of the day requires to address the root cause of the problems in the form of two fundamental design defects of our Global Economic Order, namely our monetary and judicial order. Inspired by a 1933 plan of nine University of Chicago economists abolishing the fractional reserve system, he proposes the introduction of Sovereign Money as a prerequisite to void misallocations by way of judicial order in the course of domestic and transnational insolvency proceedings including the restructuring of sovereign debt throughout the entire monetary system back to its origin without causing domino effects of banking collapses and failed financial institutions. In recognizing Austrian-American economist Schumpeter’s Concept of Creative Destruction, as a process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one, Stahl responds to Schumpeter’s economic chemotherapy with his Concept of Equitable Default mimicking an immunotherapy that strengthens the corpus economicus own immune system by providing for the judicial authority to terminate precisely those misallocations that have proven malignant causing default perusing the century old common law concept of equity that allows for the equitable reformation, rescission or restitution of contract by way of judicial order. Following a review of the proposed mechanisms of transnational dispute resolution and current court systems with transnational jurisdiction, Stahl advocates as a first step in order to complete the Capital Formation Life Cycle from FIAT, the creation of money by way of credit, to EXIT, the termination of money by way of judicial order, the institution of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Court constituted by a panel of judges from the U.S. Court of International Trade and the European Court of Justice by following the model of the EFTA Court of the European Free Trade Association. Since the first time his proposal has been made public in June of 2014 after being discussed in academic circles since 2011, his or similar proposals have found numerous public supporters. Most notably, the former Vice President of the European Parliament, David Martin, has tabled an amendment in June 2015 in the course of the negotiations on TTIP calling for an independent judicial body and the Member of the European Commission, Cecilia Malmström, has presented her proposal of an International Investment Court on September 16, 2015. Stahl concludes, that for the first time in the history of our generation it appears that there is a real opportunity for reform of our Global Economic Order by curing the two fundamental design defects of our monetary order and judicial order with the abolition of the fractional reserve system and the introduction of Sovereign Money and the institution of a democratically elected Transatlantic Trade and Investment Court that commensurate with its jurisdiction extending to cases concerning the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership may complete the Capital Formation Life Cycle resolving cases of default with the transnational judicial authority for terminal resolution of misallocations in a New Global Economic Order without the ensuing dangers of systemic collapse from FIAT to EXIT.

On the Capital Structure of Real Estate Firms

The leverage and debt maturity choices of real estate companies are interdependent, and are not made separately as is often assumed in the literature. We use three-stage least squares (3SLS) regression analysis to explore this interdependence for a sample of listed U.S. real estate companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) traded between 1973 and 2006.We find substantial differences in the nature of the relationship between leverage and maturity for the two firm types. Leverage is a determinant of maturity for non-REITs, whereas maturity is a determinant of leverage for REITs. We also find that the drivers of capital structure choices in real estate companies and REITs clearly reflect the effects of the REIT regulation.

Cost-effectiveness Study of Antihypertensive Drugs in Mumbai, India

Hypertension is a serious global public health problem. It accounts for 10% of all deaths in India and is the leading noncommunicable disease.1 Recent studies have shown that the prevalence of hypertension is 25% in urban and 10% in rural people in India.2 It exerts a substantial public health burden on cardiovascular health status and health care systems in India.3 Antihypertensive treatment effectively reduces hypertension-related morbidity and mortality.1 The cost of medications has always been a barrier to effective treatment.

Capital structure of Finnish firms – Estimating the effects of firm characteristics on capital structure

One of the most disputable matters in the theory of finance has been the theory of capital structure. The seminal contributions of Modigliani and Miller (1958, 1963) gave rise to a multitude of studies and debates. Since the initial spark, the financial literature has offered two competing theories of financing decision: the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory. The trade-off theory suggests that firms have an optimal capital structure balancing the benefits and costs of debt. The pecking order theory approaches the firm capital structure from information asymmetry perspective and assumes a hierarchy of financing, with firms using first internal funds, followed by debt and as a last resort equity. This thesis analyses the trade-off and pecking order theories and their predictions on a panel data consisting 78 Finnish firms listed on the OMX Helsinki stock exchange. Estimations are performed for the period 2003–2012. The data is collected from Datastream system and consists of financial statement data. A number of capital structure characteristics are identified: firm size, profitability, firm growth opportunities, risk, asset tangibility and taxes, speed of adjustment and financial deficit. A regression analysis is used to examine the effects of the firm characteristics on capitals structure. The regression models were formed based on the relevant theories. The general capital structure model is estimated with fixed effects estimator. Additionally, dynamic models play an important role in several areas of corporate finance, but with the combination of fixed effects and lagged dependent variables the model estimation is more complicated. A dynamic partial adjustment model is estimated using Arellano and Bond (1991) first-differencing generalized method of moments, the ordinary least squares and fixed effects estimators. The results for Finnish listed firms show support for the predictions of profitability, firm size and non-debt tax shields. However, no conclusive support for the pecking-order theory is found. However, the effect of pecking order cannot be fully ignored and it is concluded that instead of being substitutes the trade-off and pecking order theory appear to complement each other. For the partial adjustment model the results show that Finnish listed firms adjust towards their target capital structure with a speed of 29% a year using book debt ratio.

Scheduling of track inspection and maintenance activities in railroad networks

The U.S. railroad companies spend billions of dollars every year on railroad track maintenance in order to ensure safety and operational efficiency of their railroad networks. Besides maintenance costs, other costs such as train accident costs, train and shipment delay costs and rolling stock maintenance costs are also closely related to track maintenance activities. Optimizing the track maintenance process on the extensive railroad networks is a very complex problem with major cost implications. Currently, the decision making process for track maintenance planning is largely manual and primarily relies on the knowledge and judgment of experts. There is considerable potential to improve the process by using operations research techniques to develop solutions to the optimization problems on track maintenance. In this dissertation study, we propose a range of mathematical models and solution algorithms for three network-level scheduling problems on track maintenance: track inspection scheduling problem (TISP), production team scheduling problem (PTSP) and job-to-project clustering problem (JTPCP). TISP involves a set of inspection teams which travel over the railroad network to identify track defects. It is a large-scale routing and scheduling problem where thousands of tasks are to be scheduled subject to many difficult side constraints such as periodicity constraints and discrete working time constraints. A vehicle routing problem formulation was proposed for TISP, and a customized heuristic algorithm was developed to solve the model. The algorithm iteratively applies a constructive heuristic and a local search algorithm in an incremental scheduling horizon framework. The proposed model and algorithm have been adopted by a Class I railroad in its decision making process. Real-world case studies show the proposed approach outperforms the manual approach in short-term scheduling and can be used to conduct long-term what-if analyses to yield managerial insights. PTSP schedules capital track maintenance projects, which are the largest track maintenance activities and account for the majority of railroad capital spending. A time-space network model was proposed to formulate PTSP. More than ten types of side constraints were considered in the model, including very complex constraints such as mutual exclusion constraints and consecution constraints. A multiple neighborhood search algorithm, including a decomposition and restriction search and a block-interchange search, was developed to solve the model. Various performance enhancement techniques, such as data reduction, augmented cost function and subproblem prioritization, were developed to improve the algorithm. The proposed approach has been adopted by a Class I railroad for two years. Our numerical results show the model solutions are able to satisfy all hard constraints and most soft constraints. Compared with the existing manual procedure, the proposed approach is able to bring significant cost savings and operational efficiency improvement. JTPCP is an intermediate problem between TISP and PTSP. It focuses on clustering thousands of capital track maintenance jobs (based on the defects identified in track inspection) into projects so that the projects can be scheduled in PTSP. A vehicle routing problem based model and a multiple-step heuristic algorithm were developed to solve this problem. Various side constraints such as mutual exclusion constraints and rounding constraints were considered. The proposed approach has been applied in practice and has shown good performance in both solution quality and efficiency.

Cost-Effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination for Under-Five Children in Iran

Background: Rotavirus diarrhea is one of the most important causes of death among under-five children. Anti-rotavirus vaccination of these children may have a reducing effect on the disease. Objectives: this study is intended to contribute to health policy-makers of the country about the optimal decision and policy development in this area, by performing cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis on anti-rotavirus vaccination for under-5 children. Patients and Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a decision tree model to analyze rotavirus vaccination, which was compared with no vaccination with Iran’s ministry of health perspective in a 5-year time horizon. Epidemiological data were collected from published and unpublished sources. Four different assumptions were considered to the extent of the disease episode. To analyze costs, the costs of implementing the vaccination program were calculated with 98% coverage and the cost of USD 7 per dose. Medical and social costs of the disease were evaluated by sampling patients with rotavirus diarrhea, and sensitivity analysis was also performed for different episode rates and vaccine price per dose. Results: For the most optimistic assumption for the episode of illness (10.2 per year), the cost per DALY averted is 12,760 and 7,404 for RotaTeq and Rotarix vaccines, respectively, while assuming the episode of illness is 300%, they will be equal to 2,395 and 354, respectively, which will be highly cost-effective. Number of life-years gained is equal to 3,533 years. Conclusions: Assuming that the illness episodes are 100% and 300% for Rotarix and 300% for Rota Teq, the ratio of cost per DALY averted is highly cost-effective, based on the threshold of the world health organization (< 1 GDP per capita = 4526 USD). The implementation of a national rotavirus vaccination program is suggested.

Cost-analysis of teledentistry in residential aged care facilities

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this research was to conduct a cost-analysis, from a public healthcare perspective, comparing the cost and benefits of face-to-face patient examination assessments conducted by a dentist at a residential aged care facility (RACF) situated in rural areas of the Australian state of Victoria, with two teledentistry approaches utilizing virtual oral examination.

METHODS: The costs associated with implementing and operating the teledentistry approach were identified and measured using 2014 prices in Australian dollars. Costs were measured as direct intervention costs and programme costs. A population of 100 RACF residents was used as a basis to estimate the cost of oral examination and treatment plan development for the traditional face-to-face model vs. two teledentistry models: an asynchronous review and treatment plan preparation; and real-time communication with a remotely located oral health professional.

RESULTS: It was estimated that if 100 residents received an asynchronous oral health assessment and treatment plan, the net cost from a healthcare perspective would be AU$32.35 (AU$27.19-AU$38.49) per resident. The total cost of the conventional face-to-face examinations by a dentist would be AU$36.59 ($30.67-AU$42.98) per resident using realistic assumptions. Meanwhile, the total cost of real-time remote oral examination would be AU$41.28 (AU$34.30-AU$48.87) per resident.

DISCUSSION: Teledental asynchronous patient assessments were the lowest cost service model. Access to oral health professionals is generally low in RACFs; however, the real-time consultation could potentially achieve better outcomes due to two-way communication between the nurse and a remote oral health professional via health promotion/disease prevention delivered in conjunction with the oral examination.

Capital structure of Chinese listed SMEs: an agency theory perspective

Prior work examining the antecedents of capital structure for small and medium-sized enterprises in emerging markets is limited. This paper sheds light on how the corporate governance mechanisms adopted by firms on the newly established Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) in China influence their use of debt. We find that the financial leverage of GEM firms is positively influenced by executives’ shareholding and their excess cash compensation. Ownership concentration appears to reduce leverage, whereas the percentage of tradable shares increases leverage. In contrast, institutional investors’ shareholding does not influence the level of debt. Traditional factors such as tax and operating cash flow are insignificant in explaining the debt levels among GEM firms.

Age-Dependent Fragility and Life-Cycle Cost Analysis of Timber and Steel Distribution Poles Subjected to Hurricanes

Power distribution systems are susceptible to extreme damage from natural hazards especially hurricanes. Hurricane winds can knock down distribution poles thereby causing damage to the system and power outages which can result in millions of dollars in lost revenue and restoration costs. Timber has been the dominant material used to support overhead lines in distribution systems. Recently however, utility companies have been searching for a cost-effective alternative to timber poles due to environmental concerns, durability, high cost of maintenance and need for improved aesthetics. Steel has emerged as a viable alternative to timber due to its advantages such as relatively lower maintenance cost, light weight, consistent performance, and invulnerability to wood-pecker attacks. Both timber and steel poles are prone to deterioration over time due to decay in the timber and corrosion of the steel. This research proposes a framework for conducting fragility analysis of timber and steel poles subjected to hurricane winds considering deterioration of the poles over time. Monte Carlo simulation was used to develop the fragility curves considering uncertainties in strength, geometry and wind loads. A framework for life-cycle cost analysis is also proposed to compare the steel and timber poles. The results show that steel poles can have superior reliability and lower life-cycle cost compared to timber poles, which makes them suitable substitutes.

Determinants Of Firm Terminal Value: The Perspective Of North American And European Financial Analysts

Company valuation models attempt to estimate the value of a company in two stages: (1) comprising of a period of explicit analysis and (2) based on unlimited production period of cash flows obtained through a mathematical approach of perpetuity, which is the terminal value. In general, these models, whether they belong to the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), the Discount Cash Flow (DCF), or RIM (Residual Income Models) group, discount one attribute (dividends, free cash flow, or results) to a given discount rate. This discount rate, obtained in most cases by the CAPM (Capital asset pricing model) or APT (Arbitrage pricing theory) allows including in the analysis the cost of invested capital based on the risk taking of the attributes. However, one cannot ignore that the second stage of valuation that is usually 53-80% of the company value (Berkman et al., 1998) and is loaded with uncertainties. In this context, particular attention is needed to estimate the value of this portion of the company, under penalty of the assessment producing a high level of error. Mindful of this concern, this study sought to collect the perception of European and North American financial analysts on the key features of the company that they believe contribute most to its value. For this feat, we used a survey with closed answers. From the analysis of 123 valid responses using factor analysis, the authors conclude that there is great importance attached (1) to the life expectancy of the company, (2) to liquidity and operating performance, (3) to innovation and ability to allocate resources to R&D, and (4) to management capacity and capital structure, in determining the value of a company or business in long term. These results contribute to our belief that we can formulate a model for valuating companies and businesses where the results to be obtained in the evaluations are as close as possible to those found in the stock market