Hydrologic analysis of the High Plains aquifer system in Box Butte County, Nebraska /

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Hydraulic analysis of box culverts.

Errata sheet inserted.

Self-regulatory behaviors in children with Down syndrome and typically developing children measured using the Goodman Lock Box

Self-regulation has been identified as an area of difficulty for those with mental retardation. The Goodman Lock Box provides measures of two critical aspects of self-regulation-planfulness and maintenance of goal-directed behavior. In this study, the Lock Box performance of 25 children with Down syndrome was compared with that of 43 typically developing children, matched for mental age (24-36 months). Children in both groups showed similar levels of competence, planfulness and distractibility. However, children with Down syndrome displayed more task-avoidant behavior. Some issues related to the measurements obtained from the Lock Box are raised. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A role for the GCC-box in jasmonate-mediated activation of the PDF1.2 gene of arabidopsis

The PDF1.2 gene of Arabidopsis encoding a plant defensin is commonly used as a marker for characterization of the jasmonate-dependent defense responses. Here, using PDF1.2 promoter-deletion lines linked to the beta-glucoronidase-reporter gene, we examined putative promoter elements associated with jasmonate-responsive expression of this gene. Using stably transformed plants, we first characterized the extended promoter region that positively regulates basal expression from the PDF1.2 promoter. Second, using promoter deletion constructs including one from which the GCC-box region was deleted, we observed a substantially lower response to jasmonate than lines carrying this motif. In addition, point mutations introduced into the core GCC-box sequence substantially reduced jasmonate responsiveness, whereas addition of a 20-nucleotide-long promoter element carrying the core GCC-box and flanking nucleotides provided jasmonate responsiveness to a 35S minimal promoter. Taken together, these results indicated that the GCC-box plays a key role in conferring jasmonate responsiveness to the PDF1.2 promoter. However, deletion or specific mutations introduced into the core GCC-box did not completely abolish the jasmonate responsiveness of the promoter, suggesting that the other promoter elements lying downstream from the GCC-box region may also contribute to jasmonate responsiveness. In other experiments, we identified a jasmonate- and pathogen-responsive ethylene response factor transcription factor, AtERF2, which when overexpressed in transgenic Arabidopsis plants activated transcription from the PDF1.2, Thi2.1, and PR4 (basic chitinase) genes, all of which contain a GCC-box sequence in their promoters. Our results suggest that in addition to their roles in regulating ethylene-mediated gene expression, ethylene response factors also appear to play important roles in regulating jasmonate-responsive gene expression, possibly via interaction with the GCC-box.

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting with serially correlated regression models

In this article we investigate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of predictors of regression models with autocorrelated errors. We prove new theorems associated with the predictive efficiency of generalized least squares (GLS) and incorrectly structured GLS predictors. We also establish the form associated with their predictive mean squared errors as well as the magnitude of these errors relative to each other and to those generated from the ordinary least squares (OLS) predictor. A large simulation study is used to evaluate the finite-sample performance of forecasts generated from models using different corrections for the serial correlation.

HMG box transcription factor gene Hbp1 is expressed in germ cells of the developing mouse testis

HMG box containing protein 1 (HBP1) is a high mobility group domain transcriptional repressor that regulates proliferation in differentiated tissues. We have found mouse Hbp1 to be expressed strongly in the embryonic mouse testis from approximately 12.5 days post coitum, compared with low levels of expression in the embryonic ovary. Expression of Hbp1 is maintained in the developing testis beyond the onset of spermatogenesis after birth. Whole-mount in situ hybridisation analysis showed that expression of Hbp1 in the XY gonad is localized within the developing testis cords, the precursors of the seminiferous tubules. Expression of Hbp1 is not apparent in testis cords of gonads from homozygous We mutant embryos, which lack germ cells. In situ hybridisation analysis on cryosectioned embryonic testis indicated that Hbp1 expression resembles that of the germ cell marker Oct4. We conclude that Hbp1 is up-regulated specifically in germ cells of the developing XY gonad. The expression of Hbp1 in XY germ cells appears to correlate with the onset of mitotic arrest in these cells. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

HLS5, a novel RBCC (ring finger, B box, coiled-coil) family member isolated from a hemopoietic lineage switch, is a candidate tumor suppressor

Hemopoietic cells, apparently committed to one lineage, can be reprogrammed to display the phenotype of another lineage. The J2E erythroleukemic cell line has on rare occasions developed the features of monocytic cells. Subtractive hybridization was used in an attempt to identify genes that were up-regulated during this erythroid to myeloid transition. We report here on the isolation of hemopoietic lineage switch 5 (Hls5), a gene expressed by the monocytoid variant cells, but not the parental J2E cells. Hls5 is a novel member of the RBCC (Ring finger, B box, coiled-coil) family of genes, which includes Pml, Herf1, Tif-1alpha, and Rfp. Hls5 was expressed in a wide range of adult tissues; however, at different stages during embryogenesis, Hls5 was detected in the branchial arches, spinal cord, dorsal root ganglia, limb buds, and brain. The protein was present in cytoplasmic granules and punctate nuclear bodies. Isolation of the human cDNA and genomic DNA revealed that the gene was located on chromosome 8p21, a region implicated in numerous leukemias and solid tumors. Enforced expression of Hls5 in HeLa cells inhibited cell growth, clonogenicity, and tumorigenicity. It is conceivable that HLS5 is one of the tumor suppressor genes thought to reside at the 8p21 locus.

Forecasting stock returns using model-selection criteria

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia

Sorghum is the main dryland summer crop in NE Australia and a number of agricultural businesses would benefit from an ability to forecast production likelihood at regional scale. In this study we sought to develop a simple agro-climatic modelling approach for predicting shire (statistical local area) sorghum yield. Actual shire yield data, available for the period 1983-1997 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, were used to train the model. Shire yield was related to a water stress index (SI) that was derived from the agro-climatic model. The model involved a simple fallow and crop water balance that was driven by climate data available at recording stations within each shire. Parameters defining the soil water holding capacity, maximum number of sowings (MXNS) in any year, planting rainfall requirement, and critical period for stress during the crop cycle were optimised as part of the model fitting procedure. Cross-validated correlations (CVR) ranged from 0.5 to 0.9 at shire scale. When aggregated to regional and national scales, 78-84% of the annual variation in sorghum yield was explained. The model was used to examine trends in sorghum productivity and the approach to using it in an operational forecasting system was outlined. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

C/EBP delta and C/EBP gamma bind the CCAAT-box in the human beta-globin promoter and modulate the activity of the CACC-box binding protein, EKLF

Developmental- and tissue-specific expression of globin genes is mediated by a few key elements within the proximal promoter of each gene. DNA-binding assays previously identified NF-Y, GATA-1, C/EBP beta and C/EBP gamma as candidate regulators of beta-globin transcription via the CCAAT-box, a promoter element situated between CACC- and TATA-boxes. We have identified C/EBP delta as an additional beta-globin CCAAT-box binding protein. In reporter assays, we show that C/EBP delta can co-operate with EKLF, a CACC-box binding protein, to activate the beta-globin promoter, whereas C/EBP gamma inhibits the transcriptional activity of EKLF in this assay. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia: A comparison of regression based models and a bio-climatic based modeling approach

Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.