Outlining precision boundaries among areas with different variability standards using magnetic susceptibility and geomorphic surfaces

There is an increasing demand for detailed maps that represent in a simplified way the knowledge of the variability of a particular area or region maps. The objective was to outline precision boundaries among areas with different accuracy variability standards using magnetic susceptibility and geomorphic surfaces. The study was conducted in an area of 110 ha, which identified three compartment landscapes based on the geomorphic surfaces model. To determinate pH, organic matter, phosphorus, potassium and magnesium, the total sand and clay, 514 soil samples were collected at depths of 0-0.20 m and 0.60-0.80 m. The sum of base, cationic exchange capacity and base saturation were calculated and the magnetic susceptibility was evaluated in the laboratory using a system based on a balance of analytical precision method. Geomorphic surfaces identification allowed setting specific management areas (locations with maximum homogeneity of soil attributes). The map of spatial variability of magnetic susceptibility can be used to validate the precise boundaries among geomorphic surfaces identified in the field and infer the variability of clay content and soil base saturation.

Mistä on uudistumiskykyinen organisaatiokulttuuri tehty, case: Kouvolan kaupunki

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää organisaatiokulttuurin merkitystä organisaation uudistumiskykyyn. Lisäksi selvitetään, mitkä uudistumiskykyä tukevat tai estävät organisaatiokulttuurin piirteet toteutuvat Kouvolan kaupungin aikuissosiaalipalveluissa. Tutkimus toteutetaan laadullisena tapaustutkimuksena huomioiden organisaatiossa vuonna 2010 tehty organisaation uudistumiskyvyn kyselytutkimus. Aineistonkeruumenetelmänä käytetään puolistrukturoituja yksilöhaastatteluita, joissa haastateltavina ovat organisaation harkinnanvaraisesti valitsemat haastateltavat. Aineiston kerääminen ja analysointi toteutetaan teorialähtöisesti. Kohdeorganisaation vahvuudeksi voidaan nähdä hyvin tunnistettu strategia sekä siihen liittyvät päämäärät ja arvot, mikä antaa organisaatiolle mahdollisuuden toteuttaa strategian mahdollistamia organisaatiokulttuurin uudistumista edistäviä piirteitä. Vahvuutena voidaan pitää myös asiakaslähtöisyyden sisäistämistä toimintaa ohjaavana arvona sekä vahvaa sitoutumista omaan työhön. Organisaatiokulttuuria pidetään vielä hahmottumattomana, mikä vaatii sekä kulttuurin että identiteetin vahvistamista. Uudistumiskykyä tukeva organisaatiokulttuuri näkyy hyvänä ja avoimena yhteistyönä ja vuorovaikutuksena sekä organisaation sisällä että yhteistyökumppanien kanssa. Kehittämiskohteeksi Kouvolassa nouseekin yhteistyön parantaminen ja tehostaminen ylittämällä palvelualue- ja toimialarajoja sekä pyrkimällä poliittisen ja virkamiesjohdon entistä yhtenäisempään näkemykseen toimintaa tukevista innovatiivisista ratkaisuista. Kannustamisen ja palkitsemisen kohdistamisella uudistumista edistävään toimintaan voidaan saada aikaan uskallusta ja halua ideoida sekä innovoida.

Improving Transportation and Warehousing Efficiency with Simulation-Based Decision Support Systems

Transportation and warehousing are large and growing sectors in the society, and their efficiency is of high importance. Transportation also has a large share of global carbondioxide emissions, which are one the leading causes of anthropogenic climate warming. Various countries have agreed to decrease their carbon emissions according to the Kyoto protocol. Transportation is the only sector where emissions have steadily increased since the 1990s, which highlights the importance of transportation efficiency. The efficiency of transportation and warehousing can be improved with the help of simulations, but models alone are not sufficient. This research concentrates on the use of simulations in decision support systems. Three main simulation approaches are used in logistics: discrete-event simulation, systems dynamics, and agent-based modeling. However, individual simulation approaches have weaknesses of their own. Hybridization (combining two or more approaches) can improve the quality of the models, as it allows using a different method to overcome the weakness of one method. It is important to choose the correct approach (or a combination of approaches) when modeling transportation and warehousing issues. If an inappropriate method is chosen (this can occur if the modeler is proficient in only one approach or the model specification is not conducted thoroughly), the simulation model will have an inaccurate structure, which in turn will lead to misleading results. This issue can further escalate, as the decision-maker may assume that the presented simulation model gives the most useful results available, even though the whole model can be based on a poorly chosen structure. In this research it is argued that simulation- based decision support systems need to take various issues into account to make a functioning decision support system. The actual simulation model can be constructed using any (or multiple) approach, it can be combined with different optimization modules, and there needs to be a proper interface between the model and the user. These issues are presented in a framework, which simulation modelers can use when creating decision support systems. In order for decision-makers to fully benefit from the simulations, the user interface needs to clearly separate the model and the user, but at the same time, the user needs to be able to run the appropriate runs in order to analyze the problems correctly. This study recommends that simulation modelers should start to transfer their tacit knowledge to explicit knowledge. This would greatly benefit the whole simulation community and improve the quality of simulation-based decision support systems as well. More studies should also be conducted by using hybrid models and integrating simulations with Graphical Information Systems.

Improving strategic decision-making with simulation based decision support systems

Combating climate change is one of the key tasks of humanity in the 21st century. One of the leading causes is carbon dioxide emissions due to usage of fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources should be used instead of relying on oil, gas, and coal. In Finland a significant amount of energy is produced using wood. The usage of wood chips is expected to increase in the future significantly, over 60 %. The aim of this research is to improve understanding over the costs of wood chip supply chains. This is conducted by utilizing simulation as the main research method. The simulation model utilizes both agent-based modelling and discrete event simulation to imitate the wood chip supply chain. This thesis concentrates on the usage of simulation based decision support systems in strategic decision-making. The simulation model is part of a decision support system, which connects the simulation model to databases but also provides a graphical user interface for the decisionmaker. The main analysis conducted with the decision support system concentrates on comparing a traditional supply chain to a supply chain utilizing specialized containers. According to the analysis, the container supply chain is able to have smaller costs than the traditional supply chain. Also, a container supply chain can be more easily scaled up due to faster emptying operations. Initially the container operations would only supply part of the fuel needs of a power plant and it would complement the current supply chain. The model can be expanded to include intermodal supply chains as due to increased demand in the future there is not enough wood chips located close to current and future power plants.

Public and Private Sector Decision Makers Within the Rail Baltica Growth Corridor

Transport volumes have increased and will continue to increase in European Union. Even though the growth has not been equal between different transport modes. Most of the growth has been faced on road transport. European Union aims to balance the unbalanced market shares between the modes by gaining and supporting the competitiveness of railway and waterway transport. In EU railway transportation is seen as solution to increase safety in traffic and decrease the environmental impacts of transportation. The aim of this research is to figure out how it is possible to decrease the environmental impacts by the technology already in use. Main focus of this research is in intermodality and combining the road and railway transportation. This study aims also to figure out demands and expectations towards new Rail Baltica railway route connecting Tallinn and Berlin. The research is conducted by performing a literature review about decreasing environmental impacts and combining road and rail transport. Another viewpoint is taken from the possible effects of tourism to the passenger transport on rails. Knowledge gained by literature review is deepened by additional internet questionnaire study and expert interview study. In decreasing the environmental impacts of transportation electric trains are definitely the best option providing that the electricity is generated from renewable or carbon dioxide free sources. Decrease of environmental impacts has been reached also with acceptance of larger road transport vehicles. According to interviewed passenger transport experts, the whole route from Tallinn to Berlin may not be convenient to be used in passenger transport, just because the route is too long.. In EU freight is transported mainly with semi-trailer combinations, and that is why it could be logical if huckepack trains would be used on Rail Baltica. Huckepack train allows semi-trailers to be transported on rails with time efficient loading-unloading process. Overall, Rail Baltica project is experienced as a future-oriented one and new railway alignment is seen as great alternative option for transport modes using fossil fuels.

Effect of emotions on consumer decision-making in a high involvement product adoption context

This thesis was written in order participate in the emergent discussion on the role of emotions in consumer decision-making. The goal of the thesis was to find out which emotions affect consumer decision-making, how these emotions relate to traditional process models of consumer decision-making, and how emotions and other factors affect consumer decision-making. The thesis is placed into a context of high involvement product adoption. The empirical research was conducted according to a qualitative methodology, which combined video diaries and face-to-face or Skype interviews as data collection methods. The case product category was dancing poles, and four women participated in the study. The central results indicate that emotion and cognition walk hand in hand in consumer decision-making, that consumers experience a variety of emotions during a decision-making process, and that emotions have an important effect on consumer decision-making and consumer behavior.

Managerial decision-making style : India, Bangladesh, and Finland : cultural side of the game

Julkaisumaa Intia 356 IN IND

Immediate Decision-Making and Information Needs in Intensive Care Coordination

The aim of this study was to develop a theoretical model for information integration to support the deci¬sion making of intensive care charge nurses, and physicians in charge – that is, ICU shift leaders. The study focused on the ad hoc decision-making and immediate information needs of shift leaders during the management of an intensive care unit’s (ICU) daily activities. The term ‘ad hoc decision-making’ was defined as critical judgements that are needed for a specific purpose at a precise moment with the goal of ensuring instant and adequate patient care and a fluent flow of ICU activities. Data collection and research analysis methods were tested in the identification of ICU shift leaders’ ad hoc decision-making. Decision-making of ICU charge nurses (n = 12) and physicians in charge (n = 8) was observed using a think-aloud technique in two university-affiliated Finnish ICUs for adults. The ad hoc decisions of ICU shift leaders were identified using an application of protocol analysis. In the next phase, a structured online question¬naire was developed to evaluate the immediate information needs of ICU shift leaders. A national survey was conducted in all Finnish, university-affiliated hospital ICUs for adults (n = 17). The questionnaire was sent to all charge nurses (n = 515) and physicians in charge (n = 223). Altogether, 257 charge nurses (50%) and 96 physicians in charge (43%) responded to the survey. The survey was also tested internationally in 16 Greek ICUs. From Greece, 50 charge nurses out of 240 (21%) responded to the survey. A think-aloud technique and protocol analysis were found to be applicable for the identification of the ad hoc decision-making of ICU shift leaders. During one day shift leaders made over 200 ad hoc decisions. Ad hoc decisions were made horizontally, related to the whole intensive care process, and vertically, concerning single intensive care incidents. Most of the ICU shift leaders’ ad hoc decisions were related to human resources and know-how, patient information and vital signs, and special treatments. Commonly, this ad hoc decision-making involved several multiprofessional decisions that constituted a bundle of immediate decisions and various information needs. Some of these immediate information needs were shared between the charge nurses and the physicians in charge. The majority of which concerned patient admission, the organisation and management of work, and staff allocation. In general, the information needs of charge nurses were more varied than those of physicians. It was found that many ad hoc deci-sions made by the physicians in charge produced several information needs for ICU charge nurses. This meant that before the task at hand was completed, various kinds of information was sought by the charge nurses to support the decision-making process. Most of the immediate information needs of charge nurses were related to the organisation and management of work and human resources, whereas the information needs of the physicians in charge mainly concerned direct patient care. Thus, information needs differ between professionals even if the goal of decision-making is the same. The results of the international survey confirmed these study results for charge nurses. Both in Finland and in Greece the information needs of charge nurses focused on the organisation and management of work and human resources. Many of the most crucial information needs of Finnish and Greek ICU charge nurses were common. In conclusion, it was found that ICU shift leaders make hundreds of ad hoc decisions during the course of a day related to the allocation of resources and organisation of patient care. The ad hoc decision-making of ICU shift leaders is a complex multi-professional process, which requires a lot of immediate information. Real-time support for information related to patient admission, the organisation and man¬agement of work, and allocation of staff resources is especially needed. The preliminary information integration model can be applied when real-time enterprise resource planning systems are developed for intensive care daily management

Ilmavoimien taistelunjohtajan tehtäväanalyysi : tilannetietoisen päätöksenteon tarkastelu critical decision methodin avulla

Ilmavoimien taistelunjohtoalaa on tutkittu hyvin vähän. Alan tietoturvatasot ja asioiden tuottaminen kirjallisiksi ohjeiksi eivät ole vielä sillä tasolla, jolla niiden voisi toivoa olevan. Hiljaista tietoa on paljon. Menetelmävalinnan perusteella tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli luoda alan julkista teoriaa. Tutkimusstrategisina valintoina olivat laadulliset tapaustutkimus ja nelivaiheinen Critical Decision Method. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli hahmottaa vaatimuksia ilmavoimien taistelunjohtajan päätöksenteon pohjaksi sekä luoda kuvaus päätöksentekoprosessista tarkastellussa tapauksessa. Päätutkimuskysymyksenä oli selvittää, millaista päätöksentekotapaa taistelunjohtaja käyttää. Tutkimus rajattiin rationaalisen ja naturalistisen päätöksenteon esiintyvyyksien vertailuun valitussa taistelunjohtotehtävässä. Alakysymyksinä selvitettiin, millaisia tunnistettavia vaatimuksia ja vihjeitä ilmenee taistelunjohtajien päätöksentekoon liittyen sekä millainen on taistelunjohtajan tilannetietoisuus tarkastellussa tapauksessa ja miten tilannetietoisuutta voidaan jälleenrakentaa tukemaan päätöksentekoa sen romahdettua. Tutkimuksessa tarkasteltiin päätöksentekoa tapauksessa observoidun kokeneen yksittäisen taistelunjohtajan haastattelujen ja tilannetietoisuuden subjektiivisten arvioiden perusteella. Tilannetietoisuutta tarkasteltiin Mica Endsleyn kolmen tilannetietoisuuden tason ja Robert Taylorin Situational Awareness Rating Techniquen kymmenen ulottuvuuden perusteella. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittivat ilmavoimien taistelunjohtajien päätöksenteon perustuvan Gary Kleinin kehittämään tilanteen tunnistavaan The Recognition-Primed Decision -malliin. Siinä taistelunjohtaja muodostaa mentaalisen mallin ja testaa ideologian toimivuuden mielessään ennen mahdollisesti toimeenpanevaa päätöksentekoa. Toimintaa ohjaa vahvasti koulutus. Samalla taistelunjohtaja rakentaa jatkuvasti tilannetietoisuuttaan, joka nousi merkittävimpänä tekijänä esiin ilmentyen intuitiivisen päätöksenteon perustaksi. Tulokset osoittivat, että taistelunjohtajan päätöksenteko perustuu naturalistiseen päätöksentekoon, koska tehtävän hektisyyden takia ei ole aikaa vaihtoehtojen laajalle vertailulle. Tehtäväkentän laajuuden takia taistelunjohtajan päätöksenteon vaatimuksiksi ilmeni useita elementtejä. Huolimatta tehtävänaikaisesta aikapaineesta, taistelunjohtajan tilannetietoisuus oli tarkastellussa tapauksessa jatkuvasti korkealla tasolla. Tutkimuksen johtopäätöksenä voidaan todeta, että taistelunjohtajien koulutusjärjestelmä on kattava ja se toimii. Päätöksenteon koulutuksessa on kuitenkin kiinnitettävä huomiota kommunikaation merkitykseen. Siinä tilanteen tunnistamiseen johtavat vihjeet olivat epäselviä. Saatuja tuloksia voidaan hyödyntää ilmavoimien taistelunjohtajien ja taistelunjohto-opettajien koulutuksessa, valinnoissa sekä alan ohjeistusten luomisessa ja kehittämisessä.

Multidata inverse problems and Bayesian solution methods in astronomy

Statistical analyses of measurements that can be described by statistical models are of essence in astronomy and in scientific inquiry in general. The sensitivity of such analyses, modelling approaches, and the consequent predictions, is sometimes highly dependent on the exact techniques applied, and improvements therein can result in significantly better understanding of the observed system of interest. Particularly, optimising the sensitivity of statistical techniques in detecting the faint signatures of low-mass planets orbiting the nearby stars is, together with improvements in instrumentation, essential in estimating the properties of the population of such planets, and in the race to detect Earth-analogs, i.e. planets that could support liquid water and, perhaps, life on their surfaces. We review the developments in Bayesian statistical techniques applicable to detections planets orbiting nearby stars and astronomical data analysis problems in general. We also discuss these techniques and demonstrate their usefulness by using various examples and detailed descriptions of the respective mathematics involved. We demonstrate the practical aspects of Bayesian statistical techniques by describing several algorithms and numerical techniques, as well as theoretical constructions, in the estimation of model parameters and in hypothesis testing. We also apply these algorithms to Doppler measurements of nearby stars to show how they can be used in practice to obtain as much information from the noisy data as possible. Bayesian statistical techniques are powerful tools in analysing and interpreting noisy data and should be preferred in practice whenever computational limitations are not too restrictive.

On Bayesian predictive modeling : with applications on the analysis of chromatography data in forensic investigations

Med prediktion avses att man skattar det framtida värdet på en observerbar storhet. Kännetecknande för det bayesianska paradigmet är att osäkerhet gällande okända storheter uttrycks i form av sannolikheter. En bayesiansk prediktiv modell är således en sannolikhetsfördelning över de möjliga värden som en observerbar, men ännu inte observerad storhet kan anta. I de artiklar som ingår i avhandlingen utvecklas metoder, vilka bl.a. tillämpas i analys av kromatografiska data i brottsutredningar. Med undantag för den första artikeln, bygger samtliga metoder på bayesiansk prediktiv modellering. I artiklarna betraktas i huvudsak tre olika typer av problem relaterade till kromatografiska data: kvantifiering, parvis matchning och klustring. I den första artikeln utvecklas en icke-parametrisk modell för mätfel av kromatografiska analyser av alkoholhalt i blodet. I den andra artikeln utvecklas en prediktiv inferensmetod för jämförelse av två stickprov. Metoden tillämpas i den tredje artik eln för jämförelse av oljeprover i syfte att kunna identifiera den förorenande källan i samband med oljeutsläpp. I den fjärde artikeln härleds en prediktiv modell för klustring av data av blandad diskret och kontinuerlig typ, vilken bl.a. tillämpas i klassificering av amfetaminprover med avseende på produktionsomgångar.

Spatial multicriteria decision analysis for the siting of on-shore wind power in Kemiönsaari

Wind power is a low-carbon energy production form that reduces the dependence of society on fossil fuels. Finland has adopted wind energy production into its climate change mitigation policy, and that has lead to changes in legislation, guidelines, regional wind power areas allocation and establishing a feed-in tariff. Wind power production has indeed boosted in Finland after two decades of relatively slow growth, for instance from 2010 to 2011 wind energy production increased with 64 %, but there is still a long way to the national goal of 6 TWh by 2020. This thesis introduces a GIS-based decision-support methodology for the preliminary identification of suitable areas for wind energy production including estimation of their level of risk. The goal of this study was to define the least risky places for wind energy development within Kemiönsaari municipality in Southwest Finland. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) has been used for searching suitable wind power areas along with many other location-allocation problems. SMCDA scrutinizes complex ill-structured decision problems in GIS environment using constraints and evaluation criteria, which are aggregated using weighted linear combination (WLC). Weights for the evaluation criteria were acquired using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with nine expert interviews. Subsequently, feasible alternatives were ranked in order to provide a recommendation and finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the determination of recommendation robustness. The first study aim was to scrutinize the suitability and necessity of existing data for this SMCDA study. Most of the available data sets were of sufficient resolution and quality. Input data necessity was evaluated qualitatively for each data set based on e.g. constraint coverage and attribute weights. Attribute quality was estimated mainly qualitatively by attribute comprehensiveness, operationality, measurability, completeness, decomposability, minimality and redundancy. The most significant quality issue was redundancy as interdependencies are not tolerated by WLC and AHP does not include measures to detect them. The third aim was to define the least risky areas for wind power development within the study area. The two highest ranking areas were Nordanå-Lövböle and Påvalsby followed by Helgeboda, Degerdal, Pungböle, Björkboda, and Östanå-Labböle. The fourth aim was to assess the recommendation reliability, and the top-ranking two areas proved robust whereas the other ones were more sensitive.

Budgeting decision-making in Finnish municipalities

This master’s thesis examines budgeting decision-making in Finnish municipalities; an issue that has not received a lot of attention in the academic literature. Furthermore, this thesis investigates whether the current budgeting decision-making practices could be improved by using a new kind of budget decision-making tool that is based on presenting multiple investment or divestment alternatives simultaneously to the decision makers as a frontier, rather than one by one. In the empirical part of the thesis, the results from three case interviews are introduced in order to answer the research questions of the study. The empirical evidence of this thesis suggests that there is a need for the presented budgeting decision-making tool in Finnish municipalities. The current routine is seen as good even though the interviewees would warmly welcome the alternative method that would function as a linkage be-tween strategy and the budget. The results also indicate that even though municipalities are left with a lot of room in their budgeting decision-making routine, the routine closely, though not always purposely, follows given guidelines and legislation. The major problem in the current practices seems to be the lack of understanding, as the decision-makers find it hard fully to understand the multiplicative effects of the budget-related decisions.