Biases in comparative analyses of extinction risk: mind the gap

1. Comparative analyses are used to address the key question of what makes a species more prone to extinction by exploring the links between vulnerability and intrinsic species’ traits and/or extrinsic factors. This approach requires comprehensive species data but information is rarely available for all species of interest. As a result comparative analyses often rely on subsets of relatively few species that are assumed to be representative samples of the overall studied group. 2. Our study challenges this assumption and quantifies the taxonomic, spatial, and data type biases associated with the quantity of data available for 5415 mammalian species using the freely available life-history database PanTHERIA. 3. Moreover, we explore how existing biases influence results of comparative analyses of extinction risk by using subsets of data that attempt to correct for detected biases. In particular, we focus on links between four species’ traits commonly linked to vulnerability (distribution range area, adult body mass, population density and gestation length) and conduct univariate and multivariate analyses to understand how biases affect model predictions. 4. Our results show important biases in data availability with c.22% of mammals completely lacking data. Missing data, which appear to be not missing at random, occur frequently in all traits (14–99% of cases missing). Data availability is explained by intrinsic traits, with larger mammals occupying bigger range areas being the best studied. Importantly, we find that existing biases affect the results of comparative analyses by overestimating the risk of extinction and changing which traits are identified as important predictors. 5. Our results raise concerns over our ability to draw general conclusions regarding what makes a species more prone to extinction. Missing data represent a prevalent problem in comparative analyses, and unfortunately, because data are not missing at random, conventional approaches to fill data gaps, are not valid or present important challenges. These results show the importance of making appropriate inferences from comparative analyses by focusing on the subset of species for which data are available. Ultimately, addressing the data bias problem requires greater investment in data collection and dissemination, as well as the development of methodological approaches to effectively correct existing biases.

Interim analyses and sequential designs in phase III studies

Recruitment of patients to a clinical trial usually occurs over a period of time, resulting in the steady accumulation of data throughout the trial's duration. Yet, according to traditional statistical methods, the sample size of the trial should be determined in advance, and data collected on all subjects before analysis proceeds. For ethical and economic reasons, the technique of sequential testing has been developed to enable the examination of data at a series of interim analyses. The aim is to stop recruitment to the study as soon as there is sufficient evidence to reach a firm conclusion. In this paper we present the advantages and disadvantages of conducting interim analyses in phase III clinical trials, together with the key steps to enable the successful implementation of sequential methods in this setting. Examples are given of completed trials, which have been carried out sequentially, and references to relevant literature and software are provided.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Genetic diversity at the Dhn3 locus in Turkish Hordeum spontaneum populations with comparative structural analyses

We analysed Hordeum spontaneum accessions from 21 different locations to understand the genetic diversity of HsDhn3 alleles and effects of single base mutations on the intrinsically disordered structure of the resulting polypeptide (HsDHN3). HsDHN3 was found to be YSK2-type with a low-frequency 6-aa deletion in the beginning of Exon 1. There is relatively high diversity in the intron region of HsDhn3 compared to the two exon regions. We have found subtle differences in K segments led to changes in amino acids chemical properties. Predictions for protein interaction profiles suggest the presence of a protein-binding site in HsDHN3 that coincides with the K1 segment. Comparison of DHN3 to closely related cereals showed that all of them contain a nuclear localization signal sequence flanking to the K1 segment and a novel conserved region located between the S and K1 segments [E(D/T)DGMGGR]. We found that H. vulgare, H. spontaneum, and Triticum urartu DHN3s have a greater number of phosphorylation sites for protein kinase C than other cereal species, which may be related to stress adaptation. Our results show that the nature and extent of mutations in the conserved segments of K1 and K2 are likely to be key factors in protection of cells.

abctools: an R package for tuning approximate Bayesian computation analyses

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular family of algorithms which perform approximate parameter inference when numerical evaluation of the likelihood function is not possible but data can be simulated from the model. They return a sample of parameter values which produce simulations close to the observed dataset. A standard approach is to reduce the simulated and observed datasets to vectors of summary statistics and accept when the difference between these is below a specified threshold. ABC can also be adapted to perform model choice. In this article, we present a new software package for R, abctools which provides methods for tuning ABC algorithms. This includes recent dimension reduction algorithms to tune the choice of summary statistics, and coverage methods to tune the choice of threshold. We provide several illustrations of these routines on applications taken from the ABC literature.

A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Influence of implant positioning in extraction sockets on osseointegration: histomorphometric analyses in dogs

Aim To evaluate the influence of implant positioning into extraction sockets on osseointegration. Material and methods Implants were installed immediately into extraction sockets in the mandibles of six Labrador dogs. In the control sites, the implants were positioned in the center of the alveolus, while in the test sites, the implants were positioned 0.8 mm deeper and more lingually. After 4 months of healing, the resorptive patterns of the alveolar crest were evaluated histomorphometrically. Results All implants were integrated in mineralized bone, mainly composed of mature lamellar bone. The alveolar crest underwent resorption at the control as well as at the test sites. After 4 months of healing, at the buccal aspects of the control and test sites, the location of the implant rough/smooth limit to the alveolar crest was 2 +/- 0.9 mm and 0.6 +/- 0.9 mm, respectively (P < 0.05). At the lingual aspect, the bony crest was located 0.4 mm apically and 0.2 mm coronally to the implant rough/smooth limit at the control and test sites, respectively (NS). Conclusions From a clinical point of view, implants installed into extraction sockets should be positioned approximately 1 mm deeper than the level of the buccal alveolar crest and in a lingual position in relation to the center of the alveolus in order to reduce or eliminate the exposure above the alveolar crest of the endosseous (rough) portion of the implant. To cite this article:Caneva M, Salata LA, de Souza SS, Baffone G, Lang NP, Botticelli D. Influence of implant positioning in extraction sockets on osseointegration: histomorphometric analyses in dogs.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 21, 2010; 43-49.

Analyses of cataract surgery performed by the Unified Health System in Brazil, 2006-2007

Objective. Estimate cataract surgical rates (CSR) for Brazil and each federal unit in 2006 and 2007 based on the number of surgeries performed by the Unified Health System to help plan a comprehensive ophthalmology network in order to eliminate cataract blindness in compliance with the target set by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 3 000 cataract surgeries per million inhabitants per year. Methods. This descriptive study calculates CSR by using the number of cataract surgeries carried out by the Brazilian Unified Health System for each federal unit and estimates the need for cataract surgery in Brazil for 2006-2007, with official population data provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The number of cataract surgeries was compared with the WHO target. Results. To reach the WHO goal for eliminating age-related cataract blindness in Brazil, 560 312 cataract surgeries in 2006 and 568 006 surgeries in 2007 needed to be done. In 2006, 179 121 cataract surgeries were done by the Unified Health System, corresponding to a CSR of 959 per million population; in 2007, 223 317 were performed, with a CSR of 1 179. With the Brazilian Council of Ophthalmology estimation of 165 000 surgeries each year by the non-public services, the CSR for Brazil would be 1 842 for 2006 and 2 051 for 2007. The proportions needed to achieve the proposed target were 38.6% in 2006 and 31.6% in 2007. Conclusions. Human resources, technical expertise, and equipment are crucial to reach the WHO goal. Brazil has enough ophthalmologists but needs improved planning and infrastructure in order to eliminate the problem, aspects that require greater financial investment and stronger political commitment.

Yerba Mate (Ilex paraguariensis) Aqueous Extract Decreases Intestinal SGLT1 Gene Expression but Does Not Affect Other Biochemical Parameters in Alloxan-Diabetic Wistar Rats

Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis) is rich in polyphenols, especially chlorogenic acids. Evidence suggests that dietary polyphenols could play a role in glucose absorption and metabolism. The aim of this study was to evaluate the antidiabetic properties of yerba mate extract in alloxan-induced diabetic Wistar rats. Animals (n = 41) were divided in four groups: nondiabetic control (NDC, n = 10), nondiabetic yerba mate (NDY, n = 10), diabetic control (DC, n = 11), and diabetic yerba mate (NDY, n = 10). The intervention consisted in the administration of yerba mate extract in a 1 g extract/kg body weight dose for 28 days; controls received saline solution only. There were no significant differences in serum glucose, insulin, and hepatic glucose-6-phosphatase activity between the groups that ingested yerba mate extract (NDY and DY) and the controls (NDC and DC). However, the intestinal SGLT1 gene expression was significantly lower in animals that received yerba mate both in upper (p = 0.007) and middle (p < 0.001) small intestine. These results indicate that bioactive compounds present in yerba mate might be capable of interfering in glucose absorption, by decreasing SGLT1 expression.

Physical analyses of compost from composting plants in Brazil

Nowadays the composting process has shown itself to be an alternative in the treatment of municipal solid wastes by composting plants. However, although more than 50% of the waste generated by the Brazilian population is composed of matter susceptible to organic composting, this process is, still today, insufficiently developed in Brazil, due to low compost quality and lack of investments in the sector. The objective of this work was to use physical analyses to evaluate the quality of the compost produced at 14 operative composting plants in the Sao Paulo State in Brazil. For this purpose, size distribution and total inert content tests were done. The results were analyzed by grouping the plants according to their productive processes: plants with a rotating drum, plants with shredders or mills, and plants without treatment after the sorting conveyor belt. Compost quality was analyzed considering the limits imposed by the Brazilian Legislation and the European standards for inert contents. The size distribution tests showed the influence of the machinery after the sorting conveyer on the granule sizes as well as the inert content, which contributes to the presence of materials that reduce the quality of the final product. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Host-parasite-environment relationship, morphology and molecular analyses of Henneguya eirasi n. sp parasite of two wild Pseudoplatystoma spp. in Pantanal Wetland, Brazil

A new myxosporean species, Henneguya eirasi n. sp., is described parasitizing the gill filaments of Pseudoplatystoma corruscans and Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum (Siluriformes: Pimelodidae) caught in the Patanal Wetland of the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The parasite formed white, elongated plasmodia measuring up to 3 mm. Mature spores were ellipsoidal in the frontal view, measuring 37.1 +/- 1.8 mu m in total length, 12.9 +/- 0.8 mu m in body length, 3.4 +/- 0.3 mu m in width, 3.1 +/- 0.1 mu m in thickness and 24.6 +/- 2.2 mu m in the caudal process. Polar capsules were elongated and equal in size, measuring 5.4 +/- 0.5 mu m in length and 0.7 +/- 0.1 mu m in width. Polar filaments had 12-13 coils. Histopathological analysis revealed that the parasite developed in the sub-epithelial connective tissue of the gill filaments and the plasmodia were surrounded by a capsule of host connective tissue. The plasmodia caused slight compression of the adjacent tissues, but no inflammatory response was observed in the infection site. Ultrastructure analysis revealed a single plasmodial wall connected to the ectoplasmic zone through numerous pinocytotic canals. The plasmodial wall exhibited numerous projections and slightly electron-dense material was found in the ectoplasm next to the plasmodial wall, forming a line just below the wall. Partial sequencing of the 18S rDNA gene of H. eirasi n. sp. obtained from P. fasciatum resulted in a total of 1066 bp and this sequence did not match any of the Myxozoa available in the GenBank. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the Henneguya species clustering into clades following the order and family of the host fishes. H. eirasi n. sp. clustered alone in one clade, which was the basal unit for the clade composed of Henneguya species parasites of siluriform ictalurids. The prevalence of the parasite was 17.1% in both fish species examined. Parasite prevalence was not influenced by season, host sex or host size. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cytoplasmic maturation of bovine oocytes: Structural and biochemical modifications and acquisition of developmental competence

Oocyte maturation is a long process during which oocytes acquire their intrinsic ability to support the subsequent stages of development in a stepwise manner, ultimately reaching activation of the embryonic genome. This process involves complex and distinct, although linked, events of nuclear and cytoplasmic maturation. Nuclear maturation mainly involves chromosomal segregation, whereas cytoplasmic maturation involves organelle reorganization and storage of mRNAs, proteins and transcription factors that act in the overall maturation process, fertilization and early embryogenesis. Thus, for didactic purposes, we subdivided cytoplasmic maturation into: (1) organelle redistribution, (2) cytoskeleton dynamics, and (3) molecular maturation. Ultrastructural analysis has shown that mitochondria, ribosomes, endoplasmic reticulum, cortical granules and the Golgi complex assume different positions during the transition from the germinal vesicle stage to metaphase II. The cytoskeletal microfilaments and microtubules present in the cytoplasm promote these movements and act on chromosome segregation. Molecular maturation consists of transcription, storage and processing of maternal mRNA, which is stored in a stable, inactive form until translational recruitment. Polyadenylation is the main mechanism that initiates protein translation and consists of the addition of adenosine residues to the 3` terminal portion of mRNA. Cell cycle regulators, proteins, cytoplasmic maturation markers and components of the enzymatic antioxidant system are mainly transcribed during this stage. Thus, the objective of this review is to focus on the cytoplasmic maturation process by analyzing the modifications in this compartment during the acquisition of meiotic competence for development. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and risk factors of radiographic vertebral fracture in Brazilian community-dwelling elderly

The prevalence and risk factors of radiographic vertebral fracture were determined among Brazilian community-dwelling elderly. Vertebral fractures were a common condition in this elderly population, and lower hip bone mineral density was a significant risk factor for vertebral fractures in both genders. The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence of radiographic vertebral fracture and investigate factors associated with this condition in Brazilian community-dwelling elderly. This cross-sectional study included 943 elderly subjects (561 women and 382 men) living in So Paulo, Brazil. Thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were obtained, and vertebral fractures were evaluated using Genant`s semiquantitative method. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry, and bone biochemical markers were also evaluated. Female and male subjects were analyzed independently, and each gender was divided into two groups based on whether vertebral fractures were present. The prevalence of vertebral fracture was 27.5% (95% CI 23.8-31.1) in women and 31.8% in men (95% CI 27.1-36.5) (P = 0.116). Cox regression analyses using variables that were significant in the univariate analysis showed that age (prevalence ratio = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06; p = 0.019) and total femur BMD (PR = 0.27, 95% CI 0.08-0.98; p = 0.048) were independent factors in predicting vertebral fracture for the female group. In the male group, Cox regression analyses demonstrated that femoral neck BMD (PR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.07-0.98; p = 0.046) was an independent parameter in predicting vertebral fractures. Our results suggest that radiographic vertebral fractures are common in Brazilian community-dwelling elderly and that a low hip BMD was an important risk factor for this condition in both genders. Age was also significantly correlated with the presence of vertebral fractures in women.

Placement of Kuhlmanniodendron Fiaschi & Groppo in Lindackerieae (Achariaceae, Malpighiales) confirmed by analyses of rbcL sequences, with notes on pollen morphology and wood anatomy

The phylogenetic placement of Kuhlmanniodendron Fiaschi & Groppo (Achariaceae) within Malpighiales was investigated with rbcL sequence data. This genus was recently created to accommodate Carpotroche apterocarpa Kuhlm., a poorly known species from the rainforests of Espirito Santo, Brazil. One rbcL sequence was obtained from Kuhlmanniodendron and analyzed with 73 additional sequences from Malpighiales, and 8 from two closer orders, Oxalidales and Celastrales, all of which were available at Genbank. Phylogenetic analyses were carried out with maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference; bootstrap analyses were used in maximum parsimony to evaluate branch support. The results confirmed the placement of Kuhlmanniodendron together with Camptostylus, Lindackeria, Xylotheca, and Caloncoba in a strongly supported clade (posterior probability = 0.99) that corresponds with the tribe Lindackerieae of Achariaceae (Malpighiales). Kuhlmanniodendron also does not appear to be closely related to Oncoba (Salicaceae), an African genus with similar floral and fruit morphology that has been traditionally placed among cyanogenic Flacourtiaceae (now Achariaceae). A picrosodic paper test was performed in herbarium dry leaves, and the presence of cyanogenic glycosides, a class of compounds usually found in Achariaceae, was detected. Pollen morphology and wood anatomy of Kuhlmanniodendron were also investigated, but both pollen (3-colporate and microreticulate) and wood, with solitary to multiple vessels, scalariform perforation plates and other features, do not seem to be useful to distinguish this genus from other members of the Achariaceae and are rather common among the eudicotyledons as a whole. However, perforated ray cells with scalariform plates, an uncommon wood character, present in Kuhlmanniodendron are similar to those found in Kiggelaria africana (Pangieae, Achariaceae), but the occurrence of such cells is not mapped among the angiosperms, and it is not clear how homoplastic this character could be.