Evaluating stakeholder satisfaction during public participation in major infrastructure and construction projects : a fuzzy approach

Numerous different and sometimes discrepant interests can be affected, both positively and negatively, throughout the course of a major infrastructure and construction (MIC) project. Failing to address and meet the concerns and expectations of the stakeholders involved has resulted in many project failures. One way to address this issue is through a participatory approach to project decision making. Whether the participation mechanism is effective or not depends largely on the client/owner. This paper provides a means of systematically evaluating the effectiveness of the public participation exercise, or even the whole project, through the measurement of stakeholder satisfaction. Since the process of satisfaction measurement is complicated and uncertain, requiring approximate reasoning involving human intuition, a fuzzy approach is adopted. From this, a multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established to facilitate the evaluation of satisfaction in both single stakeholder group and overall MIC project stakeholders.

The interactions between insulin and androgens in progression to castrate resistant prostate cancer

An association between the metabolic syndrome and reduced testosterone levels has been identified, and a specific inverse relationship between insulin and testosterone levels suggests that an important metabolic crosstalk exists between these two hormonal axes; however, the mechanisms by which insulin and androgens may be reciprocally regulated are not well described. Androgen-dependant gene pathways regulate the growth and maintenance of both normal and malignant prostate tissue, and androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) in patients exploits this dependence when used to treat recurrent and metastatic prostate cancer resulting in tumour regression. A major systemic side effect of ADT includes induction of key features of the metabolic syndrome and the consistent feature of hyperinsulinaemia. Recent studies have specifically identified a correlation between elevated insulin and high-grade PCa and more rapid progression to castrate resistant disease. This paper examines the relationship between insulin and androgens in the context of prostate cancer progression. Prostate cancer patients present a promising cohort for the exploration of insulin stabilising agents as adjunct treatments for hormone deprivation or enhancers of chemosensitivity for treatment of advanced prostate cancer.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Acepromazine pharmacokinetics: A forensic perspective

Acepromazine (ACP) is a useful therapeutic drug, but is a prohibited substance in competition horses. The illicit use of ACP is difficult to detect due to its rapid metabolism, so this study investigated the ACP metabolite 2-(1-hydroxyethyl)promazine sulphoxide (HEPS) as a potential forensic marker. Acepromazine maleate, equivalent to 30 mg of ACP, was given IV to 12 racing-bred geldings. Blood and urine were collected for 7 days post-administration and analysed for ACP and HEPS by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC–MS). Acepromazine was quantifiable in plasma for up to 3 h with little reaching the urine unmodified. Similar to previous studies, there was wide variation in the distribution and metabolism of ACP. The metabolite HEPS was quantifiable for up to 24 h in plasma and 144 h in urine. The metabolism of ACP to HEPS was fast and erratic, so the early phase of the HEPS emergence could not be modelled directly, but was assumed to be similar to the rate of disappearance of ACP. However, the relationship between peak plasma HEPS and the y-intercept of the kinetic model was strong (P = 0.001, r2 = 0.72), allowing accurate determination of the formation pharmacokinetics of HEPS. Due to its rapid metabolism, testing of forensic samples for the parent drug is redundant with IV administration. The relatively long half-life of HEPS and its stable behaviour beyond the initial phase make it a valuable indicator of ACP use, and by determining the urine-to-plasma concentration ratios for HEPS, the approximate dose of ACP administration may be estimated.

Variability, regularity and coupling measures distinguish PD tremor from voluntary 5Hz tremor

A characteristic of Parkinson's disease (PD) is the development of tremor within the 4–6 Hz range. One method used to better understand pathological tremor is to compare the responses to tremor-type actions generated intentionally in healthy adults. This study was designed to investigate the similarities and differences between voluntarily generated 4–6 Hz tremor and PD tremor in regards to their amplitude, frequency and coupling characteristics. Tremor responses for 8 PD individuals (on- and off-medication) and 12 healthy adults were assessed under postural and resting conditions. Results showed that the voluntary and PD tremor were essentially identical with regards to the amplitude and peak frequency. However, differences between the groups were found for the variability (SD of peak frequency, proportional power) and regularity (Approximate Entropy, ApEn) of the tremor signal. Additionally, coherence analysis revealed strong inter-limb coupling during voluntary conditions while no bilateral coupling was seen for the PD persons. Overall, healthy participants were able to produce a 5 Hz tremulous motion indistinguishable to that of PD patients in terms of peak frequency and amplitude. However, differences in the structure of variability and level of inter-limb coupling were found for the tremor responses of the PD and healthy adults. These differences were preserved irrespective of the medication state of the PD persons. The results illustrate the importance of assessing the pattern of signal structure/variability to discriminate between different tremor forms, especially where no differences emerge in standard measures of mean amplitude as traditionally defined.

PartSS : An efficient partition-based filtering for edit distance constraints

This paper introduces PartSS, a new partition-based fil- tering for tasks performing string comparisons under edit distance constraints. PartSS offers improvements over the state-of-the-art method NGPP with the implementation of a new partitioning scheme and also improves filtering abil- ities by exploiting theoretical results on shifting and scaling ranges, thus accelerating the rate of calculating edit distance between strings. PartSS filtering has been implemented within two major tasks of data integration: similarity join and approximate membership extraction under edit distance constraints. The evaluation on an extensive range of real-world datasets demonstrates major gain in efficiency over NGPP and QGrams approaches.

Flexing some muscle: strategy and outcomes in the Queensland health and fitness industry

In 1993, contrary to the trend towards enterprise bargaining, and despite an employment environment favouring strong managerial prerogative, a small group of employers in the Queensland commercial health and fitness industry sought industrial regulation through an industry-specific award. A range of factors, including increased competition and unscrupulous profiteers damaging the industry’s reputation, triggered the actions as a business strategy. The strategic choices of the employer group, to approach a union to initiate a consent award, are the inverse of behaviours expected under strategic choice theory. This article argues that organizational size, collective employer action, focus on industry rather than organizational outcomes and the traditional industrial relations system providing broader impacts explain their atypical behaviour.

Association between ambient ultraviolet radiation and risk of esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVES: Ecological studies have suggested an inverse relationship between latitude and risks of some cancers. However, associations between solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure and esophageal cancer risk have not been fully explored. We therefore investigated the association between nevi, freckles, and measures of ambient UVR over the life-course with risks of esophageal cancers. METHODS: We compared estimated lifetime residential ambient UVR among Australian patients with esophageal cancer (330 esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), 386 esophago-gastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJAC), and 279 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC)), and 1471 population controls. We asked people where they had lived at different periods of their life, and assigned ambient UVR to each location based on measurements from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer database. Freckling and nevus burden were self-reported. We used multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the magnitude of associations between phenotype, ambient UVR, and esophageal cancer risk. RESULTS: Compared with population controls, patients with EAC and EGJAC were less likely to have high levels of estimated cumulative lifetime ambient UVR (EAC odds ratio (OR) 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35-0.99, EGJAC OR 0.55, 0.34-0.90). We found no association between UVR and risk of ESCC (OR 0.91, 0.51-1.64). The associations were independent of age, sex, body mass index, education, state of recruitment, frequency of reflux, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and H. pylori serostatus. Cases with EAC were also significantly less likely to report high levels of nevi than controls. CONCLUSIONS: These data show an inverse association between ambient solar UVR at residential locations and risk of EAC and EGJAC, but not ESCC.

Bayesian algorithms with applications

Advances in algorithms for approximate sampling from a multivariable target function have led to solutions to challenging statistical inference problems that would otherwise not be considered by the applied scientist. Such sampling algorithms are particularly relevant to Bayesian statistics, since the target function is the posterior distribution of the unobservables given the observables. In this thesis we develop, adapt and apply Bayesian algorithms, whilst addressing substantive applied problems in biology and medicine as well as other applications. For an increasing number of high-impact research problems, the primary models of interest are often sufficiently complex that the likelihood function is computationally intractable. Rather than discard these models in favour of inferior alternatives, a class of Bayesian "likelihoodfree" techniques (often termed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)) has emerged in the last few years, which avoids direct likelihood computation through repeated sampling of data from the model and comparing observed and simulated summary statistics. In Part I of this thesis we utilise sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methodology to develop new algorithms for ABC that are more efficient in terms of the number of model simulations required and are almost black-box since very little algorithmic tuning is required. In addition, we address the issue of deriving appropriate summary statistics to use within ABC via a goodness-of-fit statistic and indirect inference. Another important problem in statistics is the design of experiments. That is, how one should select the values of the controllable variables in order to achieve some design goal. The presences of parameter and/or model uncertainty are computational obstacles when designing experiments but can lead to inefficient designs if not accounted for correctly. The Bayesian framework accommodates such uncertainties in a coherent way. If the amount of uncertainty is substantial, it can be of interest to perform adaptive designs in order to accrue information to make better decisions about future design points. This is of particular interest if the data can be collected sequentially. In a sense, the current posterior distribution becomes the new prior distribution for the next design decision. Part II of this thesis creates new algorithms for Bayesian sequential design to accommodate parameter and model uncertainty using SMC. The algorithms are substantially faster than previous approaches allowing the simulation properties of various design utilities to be investigated in a more timely manner. Furthermore the approach offers convenient estimation of Bayesian utilities and other quantities that are particularly relevant in the presence of model uncertainty. Finally, Part III of this thesis tackles a substantive medical problem. A neurological disorder known as motor neuron disease (MND) progressively causes motor neurons to no longer have the ability to innervate the muscle fibres, causing the muscles to eventually waste away. When this occurs the motor unit effectively ‘dies’. There is no cure for MND, and fatality often results from a lack of muscle strength to breathe. The prognosis for many forms of MND (particularly amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)) is particularly poor, with patients usually only surviving a small number of years after the initial onset of disease. Measuring the progress of diseases of the motor units, such as ALS, is a challenge for clinical neurologists. Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is an attempt to directly assess underlying motor unit loss rather than indirect techniques such as muscle strength assessment, which generally is unable to detect progressions due to the body’s natural attempts at compensation. Part III of this thesis builds upon a previous Bayesian technique, which develops a sophisticated statistical model that takes into account physiological information about motor unit activation and various sources of uncertainties. More specifically, we develop a more reliable MUNE method by applying marginalisation over latent variables in order to improve the performance of a previously developed reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. We make other subtle changes to the model and algorithm to improve the robustness of the approach.

Microstructural studies of quenched partially-melted Y-123 materials and Y-123 with Y-211, PtO2 and CeO2 additions

The microstructure of YBa2Cu3O7-delta (Y-123) materials partially-melted in air and quenched from the temperature range 900-1100 degrees C, has been characterized using a combination of X-ray diffractometry, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, electron microprobe analyses, transmission electron microscopy and energy and wave dispersive X-ray spectrometries. The microstructural studies reveal significant changes in the character of the quenched partial-melt as a function of temperature and time before quenching. BaCu2O2 and BaCuO2 are found to co-exist in stoichiometric samples quenched from the temperature range 920-960 degrees C. Under suitable cooling conditions, large pockets of melt cristallize as BaCuO2 with an exsolution of BaCu2O2 in the form of thin plates (approximate to 50-100 nm thick) along facets. Y2BaCuO5 (Y-211) additions are associated with the formation of BaCu2O2 at 1100 degrees C. Preliminary results on the effects of PtO2 and CeO2 additions to Y-123 (and Y-123 with Y-211 additions) show that these enhace the formation of BaCu2O2 at the melting temperature of 1100 degrees C. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Progress towards slip-casting YBa2Cu3O7-x monoliths

Sintered bars of YBa2Cu3O7-x obtained by slip-casting are investigated for drying and sintering behaviour. High J(cm) values (approximate to 10(6) A/cm(2) at 77K) are obtained, although J(ct) values are low (approximate to 10(2) A/cm(2) at 77K). Microstructural characterisation is undertaken on selected samples which demonstrate significant differences in physical density and critical current density.

Reaction products between Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-oxide thick films and alumina substrates

The structure and composition of reaction products between Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-oxide (BSCCO) thick films and alumina substrates have been characterized using a combination of electron diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry (EDX). Sr and Ca are found to be the most reactive cations with alumina. Sr4Al6O12SO4 is formed between the alumina substrates and BSCCO thick films prepared from paste with composition close to Bi-2212 (and Bi-2212 + 10 wt.% Ag). For paste with composition close to Bi(Pb)-2223 + 20 wt.% Ag, a new phase with f.c.c. structure, lattice parameter about a = 24.5 A and approximate composition Al3Sr2CaBi2CuOx has been identified in the interface region. Understanding and control of these reactions is essential for growth of high quality BSCCO thick films on alumina. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A.

Microstructural investigation of Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-oxide thick films on alumina substrates

The microstructure of Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-oxide (BSCCO) thick films on alumina substrates has been characterized using a combination of X-ray diffractometry, scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy of sections across the film/substrate interface and energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometry. A reaction layer formed between the BSCCO films and the alumina substrates. This chemical interaction is largely responsible for off-stoichiometry of the films and is more significant after partial melting of the films. A new phase with fee structure, lattice parameter a = 2.45 nm and approximate composition Al3Sr2CaBi2CuOx has been identified as reaction product between BSCCO and Al2O3.

Fourier Lucas-Kanade Algorithm

In this paper we propose a framework for both gradient descent image and object alignment in the Fourier domain. Our method centers upon the classical Lucas & Kanade (LK) algorithm where we represent the source and template/model in the complex 2D Fourier domain rather than in the spatial 2D domain. We refer to our approach as the Fourier LK (FLK) algorithm. The FLK formulation is advantageous when one pre-processes the source image and template/model with a bank of filters (e.g. oriented edges, Gabor, etc.) as: (i) it can handle substantial illumination variations, (ii) the inefficient pre-processing filter bank step can be subsumed within the FLK algorithm as a sparse diagonal weighting matrix, (iii) unlike traditional LK the computational cost is invariant to the number of filters and as a result far more efficient, and (iv) this approach can be extended to the inverse compositional form of the LK algorithm where nearly all steps (including Fourier transform and filter bank pre-processing) can be pre-computed leading to an extremely efficient and robust approach to gradient descent image matching. Further, these computational savings translate to non-rigid object alignment tasks that are considered extensions of the LK algorithm such as those found in Active Appearance Models (AAMs).

Efficient solution of two-sided nonlinear space-fractional diffusion equations using fast Poisson preconditioners

We develop a fast Poisson preconditioner for the efficient numerical solution of a class of two-sided nonlinear space fractional diffusion equations in one and two dimensions using the method of lines. Using the shifted Gr¨unwald finite difference formulas to approximate the two-sided(i.e. the left and right Riemann-Liouville) fractional derivatives, the resulting semi-discrete nonlinear systems have dense Jacobian matrices owing to the non-local property of fractional derivatives. We employ a modern initial value problem solver utilising backward differentiation formulas and Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov methods to solve these systems. For efficient performance of the Jacobianfree Newton-Krylov method it is essential to apply an effective preconditioner to accelerate the convergence of the linear iterative solver. The key contribution of our work is to generalise the fast Poisson preconditioner, widely used for integer-order diffusion equations, so that it applies to the two-sided space fractional diffusion equation. A number of numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the preconditioner and the overall solution strategy.