Modelling methodology and forecast failure

We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications.

Validity of the ice shelf water plume concept beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf

In winter, brine rejection from sea ice formation and export in the Weddell Sea, offshore of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), leads to the formation of High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW). This dense water mass enters the cavity beneath FRIS by sinking southward down the sloping continental shelf towards the grounding line. Melting occurs when the HSSW encounters the ice shelf, and the meltwater released cools and freshens the HSSW to form a water mass known as Ice Shelf Water (ISW). If this ISW rises, the ‘ice pump’ is initiated (Lewis and Perkin, 1986), whereby the ascending ISW becomes supercooled and deposits marine ice at shallower locations due to the pressure increase in the in-situ freezing temperature. Sandh¨ager et al. (2004) were able to infer the thickness patterns of marine ice deposits at the base of FRIS (figure 1), so the primary aim of this work is to try to understand the ocean flows that determine these patterns. The plume model we use to investigate ISW flow is described fully by Holland and Feltham (accepted) so only a relatively brief outline is presented here. The plume is simulated by combining a parameterisation of ice shelf basal interaction and a multiplesize- class frazil dynamics model with an unsteady, depth-averaged reduced-gravity plume model. In the model an active region of ISW evolves above and within an expanse of stagnant ambient fluid, which is considered to be ice-free and has fixed profiles of temperature and salinity. The two main assumptions of the model are that there is a well-mixed layer underneath the ice shelf and that the ambient fluid outside the plume is stagnant with fixed properties. The topography of the ice shelf that the plume flows beneath is set to the FRIS ice shelf draft calculated by Sandh¨ager et al. (2004) masked with the grounding line from the Antarctic Digital Database (ADD Consortium, 2002). To initiate the plumes, we assume that the intrusion of dense HSSW initially causes melting at the points on the grounding line where the glaciological tributaries feeding FRIS go afloat.

The effect of (mis-specified) GARCH filters on the finite sample distribution of the BDS test

This paper considers the effect of using a GARCH filter on the properties of the BDS test statistic as well as a number of other issues relating to the application of the test. It is found that, for certain values of the user-adjustable parameters, the finite sample distribution of the test is far-removed from asymptotic normality. In particular, when data generated from some completely different model class are filtered through a GARCH model, the frequency of rejection of iid falls, often substantially. The implication of this result is that it might be inappropriate to use non-rejection of iid of the standardised residuals of a GARCH model as evidence that the GARCH model ‘fits’ the data.

Parent-child interactions and adolescent anxiety: a systematic review

Parental behaviours have been implicated in the development and maintenance of anxiety in children and young people; however the degree to which findings apply to adolescents specifically remains unclear. We conducted a systematic review of studies examining the evidence for an association between parental behaviours and adolescent anxiety. Twenty two studies were identified. The results of this systematic review provide fairly consistent preliminary evidence for an association between anxiety and perceived parental control and anxious rearing in adolescence. The findings relating to an association between adolescent anxiety and perceived parental rejection and lack of warmth are somewhat less consistent. Methodological shortcomings in the studies mean that these results should be interpreted with caution. Future research should be conducted using observational and experimental design with adolescents from referred, clinical populations to help identify the critical parental processes and clarify the direction of effects.

Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper investigates the feasibility of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to calibrate and evaluate complex individual-based models (IBMs). As ABC evolves, various versions are emerging, but here we only explore the most accessible version, rejection-ABC. Rejection-ABC involves running models a large number of times, with parameters drawn randomly from their prior distributions, and then retaining the simulations closest to the observations. Although well-established in some fields, whether ABC will work with ecological IBMs is still uncertain. Rejection-ABC was applied to an existing 14-parameter earthworm energy budget IBM for which the available data consist of body mass growth and cocoon production in four experiments. ABC was able to narrow the posterior distributions of seven parameters, estimating credible intervals for each. ABC’s accepted values produced slightly better fits than literature values do. The accuracy of the analysis was assessed using cross-validation and coverage, currently the best available tests. Of the seven unnarrowed parameters, ABC revealed that three were correlated with other parameters, while the remaining four were found to be not estimable given the data available. It is often desirable to compare models to see whether all component modules are necessary. Here we used ABC model selection to compare the full model with a simplified version which removed the earthworm’s movement and much of the energy budget. We are able to show that inclusion of the energy budget is necessary for a good fit to the data. We show how our methodology can inform future modelling cycles, and briefly discuss how more advanced versions of ABC may be applicable to IBMs. We conclude that ABC has the potential to represent uncertainty in model structure, parameters and predictions, and to embed the often complex process of optimizing an IBM’s structure and parameters within an established statistical framework, thereby making the process more transparent and objective.

Introducing children with special educational needs to theatre through ‘Relaxed Performances’

This short chapter explains how a growing number of theatres are beginning to offer families living with autism and other disabilities opportunities to attend without fear of alienation or rejection by other audience members. Using one small theatre as a case study, the chapter illustrates the sort of adaptations that are made to the performance and front of house arrangements.

Widening participation in theatre through ‘relaxed performances’

This paper what 'relaxed performances' are and how a growing number of theatres are beginning to offer them to families living with autism and other disabilities opportunities to attend without fear of alienation or rejection by other audience members. Using one small theatre as a case study, the chapter illustrates the sort of adaptations that are made to the performance and front of house arrangements and reports on the positive effects one particular relaxed performance had on some of those who attended.

Robust multimodal face and fingerprint fusion in the presence of spoofing attacks

Anti-spoofing is attracting growing interest in biometrics, considering the variety of fake materials and new means to attack biometric recognition systems. New unseen materials continuously challenge state-of-the-art spoofing detectors, suggesting for additional systematic approaches to target anti-spoofing. By incorporating liveness scores into the biometric fusion process, recognition accuracy can be enhanced, but traditional sum-rule based fusion algorithms are known to be highly sensitive to single spoofed instances. This paper investigates 1-median filtering as a spoofing-resistant generalised alternative to the sum-rule targeting the problem of partial multibiometric spoofing where m out of n biometric sources to be combined are attacked. Augmenting previous work, this paper investigates the dynamic detection and rejection of livenessrecognition pair outliers for spoofed samples in true multi-modal configuration with its inherent challenge of normalisation. As a further contribution, bootstrap aggregating (bagging) classifiers for fingerprint spoof-detection algorithm is presented. Experiments on the latest face video databases (Idiap Replay- Attack Database and CASIA Face Anti-Spoofing Database), and fingerprint spoofing database (Fingerprint Liveness Detection Competition 2013) illustrate the efficiency of proposed techniques.

Sea ice production and water mass modification in the eastern Laptev Sea

A simple polynya flux model driven by standard atmospheric forcing is used to investigate the ice formation that took place during an exceptionally strong and consistent western New Siberian (WNS) polynya event in 2004 in the Laptev Sea. Whether formation rates are high enough to erode the stratification of the water column beneath is examined by adding the brine released during the 2004 polynya event to the average winter density stratification of the water body, preconditioned by summers with a cyclonic atmospheric forcing (comparatively weakly stratified water column). Beforehand, the model performance is tested through a simulation of a well‐documented event in April 2008. Neglecting the replenishment of water masses by advection into the polynya area, we find the probability for the occurrence of density‐driven convection down to the bottom to be low. Our findings can be explained by the distinct vertical density gradient that characterizes the area of the WNS polynya and the apparent lack of extreme events in the eastern Laptev Sea. The simple approach is expected to be sufficiently rigorous, since the simulated event is exceptionally strong and consistent, the ice production and salt rejection rates are likely to be overestimated, and the amount of salt rejected is distrusted over a comparatively weakly stratified water column. We conclude that the observed erosion of the halocline and formation of vertically mixed water layers during a WNS polynya event is therefore predominantly related to wind‐ and tidally driven turbulent mixing processes.

Acellular Dermal Matrix Graft for Gingival Augmentation: A Preliminary Clinical, Histologic, and Ultrastructural Evaluation

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate clinically, histologically, and ultrastructurally the integration process of the acellular dermal matrix used to increase the band of keratinized tissue while achieving gingival inflammation control. Methods: Ten patients exhibiting a mucogingival problem with bands of keratinized tissue <= 1 mm and gingival inflammation of the related teeth were included in the study. The surgical procedures were performed to augment the gingival tissue using acellular dermal matrix. Clinical measurements were assessed at baseline and after 3 months. A specimen of the allograft and surrounding tissues was obtained immediately before the surgery and 4 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 10 weeks after grafting. Results: Clinically, a gain of keratinized tissue of 2.92 +/- 0.65 mm was observed after 3 months. Histologically and ultrastructurally, many macrophages were observed phagocytosing preexisting collagen fibers in the first weeks. From week 2 on, fibroblasts synthesizing new collagen, epithelial cells colonizing the graft surface, and revascularization were noticed. After 6 weeks it was difficult to find the acellular dermal matrix preexisting collagen fibers. This process of substitution was completed after 10 weeks, when the reepithelialization of the entire graft throughout a well-structured basement membrane was achieved. Conclusion: The acellular dermal matrix graft seemed to be an easily handled material for use in keratinized tissue augmentation that, in humans, was substituted and completely reepithelialized in 10 weeks according to histologic and ultrastructural results. J Periodontol 2009;80:253-259.

Ridge Preservation With Acellular Dermal Matrix and Anorganic Bone Matrix Cell-Binding Peptide P-15 After Tooth Extraction in Humans

Background: Preventing ridge collapse with the extraction of maxillary anterior teeth is vital to an esthetic restorative result. Several regenerative techniques are available and are used for socket preservation. The aim of this study is to analyze by clinical parameters the use of acellular dermal matrix (ADM) and anorganic bovine bone matrix (ABM) with synthetic cell-binding peptide P-15 to preserve alveolar bone after tooth extraction. Methods: Eighteen patients in need of extraction of maxillary anterior teeth were selected and randomly assigned to the test group (ADM plus ABM/P-15) or the control group (ADM only). Clinical measurements were recorded initially and at 6 months after ridge-preservation procedures. Results: In the clinical measurements (external vertical palatal measurement [EVPM], external vertical buccal measurement [EVBM], and alveolar horizontal measurement [AHM]) the statistical analysis showed no difference between test and control groups initially and at 6 months. The intragroup analysis, after 6 months, showed a statistically significant reduction in the measurements for both groups. In the comparison between the two groups, the differences in the test group were as follows: EVPM = 0.83 +/- 1.53 mm; EVBM = 1.20 +/- 2.02 mm; and AHM = 2.53 +/- 1.81 mm. The differences in the control group were as follows: EVPM = 0.87 +/- 1.13 mm; EVBM = 1.50 +/- 1.15 mm; and AHM = 3.40 +/- 1.39 mm. The differences in EVPM and EVBM were not statistically significant; however, in horizontal measurement (AHM), there was a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). Conclusion: The results of this study show that ADM used as membrane associated with ABM/P-15 can be used to reduce buccal-palatal dimensions compared to ADM alone for preservation of the alveolar ridge after extraction of anterior maxillary teeth. J Periodontol 2011;82:72-79.

Diet and food selection by small mammals in an old-growth Atlantic forest of south-eastern Brazil

Here we describe the stomach contents of nine small mammal species (seven rodents and two didelphid marsupials) co-occurring in an old-growth Atlantic forest area. For four terrestrial rodents, we also compared the importance of arthropods in the diet and the selection of arthropod groups by comparing consumption with availability. Small mammals and arthropods were sampled in a 36-ha grid containing 25 sampling stations spaced every 150 m, and 47 stomach contents were analysed. While plant matter was the predominant item in the stomach contents of two rodents (Oligoryzomys nigripes and Rhipidomys mastacalis), four species presented arthropods as the main food item (the rodents Brucepattersonius soricinus and Oxymycterus dasytrichus, and the marsupials Monodelphis n. sp. and Marmosops incanus) and three consumed more plant matter than arthropods, but had significant amounts of both items (the rodents Delomys sublineatus, Euryoryzomys russatus and Thaptomys nigrita). Our results suggest that differences in diet, coupled with differences in habit and microhabitat preferences, are important factors allowing resource partition among species of the diverse group of co-occurring terrestrial small mammals in Atlantic forest areas. Moreover, arthropods were not preyed opportunistically by any of the four terrestrial rodents, since consumption was not proportional to availability. Rather, selection or rejection of arthropod groups seems to be determined by aspects other than availability, such as nutritional value, easiness of capture and handling or palatability.

POLYGLYCOLIC ACID TUBE ASSOCIATED WITH GM1 IN REGENERATION OF PERIPHERAL NERVES

Introduction: Nerve allografting is regarded as a treatment of choice in large neural tissue losses preventing repair by primary anastomosis. In these cases, a synthetic polyglycolic acid tube is an alternative for nerve grafting. On the other hand, several studies have emphasized the importance of neurotrophic factors on neural regeneration, including substances with potential to optimize neural regeneration, especially the GM1, an neurotrophic enhancer factor. Objective: to compare, in rats, the neural regeneration degree using histological analysis, regenerated myelinized axons count, and functional analysis with the use of neurotube and GM1. Methods: This assessment was performed by interposing allograft (group A), polyglycolic acid tube (group B) and polyglycolic acid tube associated to GM1 (group C) on 5-mm sciatic nerve defects. Results: Neuroma formation was found only on group A. Groups A and C showed similar histological patterns, except for the regenerated axons on group C, which were shown to be better organized and myelinized than in group A. Conclusion: on functional recovery, no statistically significant difference was found for the three groups, despite of qualitative and quantitative histological differences found.

A role for regulatory T cells in renal acute kidney injury

Ischemia reperfusion injury (IRI) is a potential contributor for the development of chronic allograft nephropathy. T cells are important mediators of injury, even in the absence of alloantigens. We performed a depletion of TCD4(+)CTLA4(+)Foxp3(+) cells with anti-CD25(PC61), a treatment with anti-GITR (DTA-1) and rat-IgG, followed by 45 min of ischemia and 24/72 h of reperfusion, and then analyzed blood urea, kidney histopathology and gene expression in kidneys by QReal Time PCR. After 24 h of reperfusion, depletion of TCD4(+)CTLA4(+)Foxp3(+) cells reached 30.3%(spleen) and 67.8%(lymph nodes). 72 h after reperfusion depletion reached 43.1%(spleen) and 90.22%(lymph nodes) and depleted animals presented with significantly poorer renal function, while DTA-1 (anti-GITR)-treated ones showed a significant protection, all compared to serum urea from control group (IgG: 150.10 +/- 50.04; PC61: 187.23 +/- 31.38; DTA-1: 64.53 +/- 25.65, mg/dL, p<0.05). These data were corroborated by histopathology. We observed an increase of HO-1 expression in animals treated with DTA-1 at 72 h of reperfusion with significant differences. Thus, our results suggest that PC61 (anti-CD25) mAb treatment is deleterious, while DTA-1 (anti-GITR) mAb treatment presents a protective role in the renal IRI, indicating that some regulatory populations of T cells might have a role in IRI. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical correlations of human cytomegalovirus strains and viral load in kidney transplant recipients

Little is known about clinical differences associated with cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection by distinct strains in renal transplant patients. Different clinical pictures may be associated with specific viral genotypes. viral load, as well as host factors. The objective of this study was to identify CMV strains to determine viral load (antigenemia), and their correlation with clinical data in renal transplant recipients. Seventy-one patients were enrolled, comprising 91 samples. After selection, polymorphonuclear cells were used to amplify and sequence the gB region of CMV DNA. The sequences were analyzed to ascertain the frequency of different genotypes. Additionally, the results of this Study showed that the gB coding gene presents a great variability, revealing a variety of patterns: classical gB (1.4%), gB1V (46.4%), classical gB2 (35.2%), gB2V (2.8%), gB3 (1.4%), classical gB4 (4.9%) and gB4V (4.9%). The mean viral load in kidney transplant patient was 75.1 positive cells (1-1000). A higher viral load was observed in patients with genotype 4 infection. Statistically significant differences were detected between gB1 and gB4 (p=0.010), and between gB2 and gB4 (p=0.021). The average numbers of positive cells in relation to clinical presentation were: 34.5 in asymptomatic, 49.5 in CMV associated syndrome and 120.7 in patients with invasive disease (p=0.048). As a group, gB1 was the most frequent strain and revealed a potential risk for developing invasive disease. Viral load also seemed to be important as a marker associated with clinical presentation of the disease. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.