Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Numerical modelling and analysis of the blast performance of laminated glass panels and the influence of material parameters

This paper presents a comprehensive numerical procedure to treat the blast response of laminated glass (LG) panels and studies the influence of important material parameters. Post-crack behaviour of the LG panel and the contribution of the interlayer towards blast resistance are treated. Modelling techniques are validated by comparing with existing experimental results. Findings indicate that the tensile strength of glass considerably influences the blast response of LG panels while the interlayer material properties have a major impact on the response under higher blast loads. Initially, glass panes absorb most of the blast energy, but after the glass breaks, interlayer deforms further and absorbs most of the blast energy. LG panels should be designed to fail by tearing of the interlayer rather than failure at the supports to achieve a desired level of protection. From this aspect, material properties of glass, interlayer and sealant joints play important roles, but unfortunately they are not accounted for in the current design standards. The new information generated in this paper will enhance the capabilities of engineers to better design LG panels under blast loads and use better materials to improve the blast response of LG panels.

Modelling electronegative complex plasma systems

The control of the generation and assembly of the electronegative plasma-grown particles is discussed. Due to the large number of elementary processes of particle creation and loss, electronegative complex plasmas should be treated as open systems where the stationary states are sustained by various particle creation and loss processes in the plasma bulk, on the walls, and on the dust grain surfaces. To be physically self-consistent, ionization, diffusion, electron attachment, recombination, dust charge variation, and dissipation due to electron and ion elastic collisions with neutrals and fine particles, as well as charging collisions with the dust, must be accounted for.

Gravity-induced coronal plane joint moments in the adolescent scoliotic spine

INTRODUCTION Calculating segmental (vertebral level-by-level) torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be estimated. METHODS Existing low dose CT scans were used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and joint moments occurring in the spine for a group of female AIS patients with right-sided thoracic curves. Image processing software, ImageJ (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to reconstruct the torso segments and subsequently measure the torso volume and mass corresponding to each vertebral level. Body segment masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published anthropometric data. Intervertebral joint moments at each vertebral level were found by summing each of the torso segment masses above the required joint and multiplying it by the perpendicular distance to the centre of the disc. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Twenty patients were included in this study with a mean age of 15.0±2.7 years and a mean Cobb angle 52±5.9°. The mean total trunk mass, as a percentage of total body mass, was 27.8 (SD 0.5) %. Mean segmental torso mass increased inferiorly from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The coronal plane joint moments during relaxed standing were typically 5-7Nm at the apex of the curve (Figure 1), with the highest apex joint of 7Nm. CT scans were performed in the supine position and curve magnitudes are known to be 7-10° smaller than those measured in standing [1]. Therefore joint moments produced by gravity will be greater than those calculated here. CONCLUSIONS Coronal plane joint moments as high as 7Nm can occur during relaxed standing in scoliosis patients, which may help to explain the mechanics of AIS progression. The body mass distributions calculated in this study can be used to estimate joint moments derived using other imaging modalities such as MRI and subsequently determine if a relationship exists between joint moments and progressive vertebral deformity.

The SEA-CALIPSO volcano imaging experiment at Montserrat : plans, campaigns at sea and on land, scientific results, and lessons learned

Since 1995 the eruption of the andesitic Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat, has been studied in substantial detail. As an important contribution to this effort, the Seismic Experiment with Airgunsource-Caribbean Andesitic Lava Island Precision Seismo-geodetic Observatory (SEA-CALIPSO) experiment was devised to image the arc crust underlying Montserrat, and, if possible, the magma system at SHV using tomography and reflection seismology. Field operations were carried out in October–December 2007, with deployment of 238 seismometers on land supplementing seven volcano observatory stations, and with an array of 10 ocean-bottom seismometers deployed offshore. The RRS James Cook on NERC cruise JC19 towed a tuned airgun array plus a digital 48-channel streamer on encircling and radial tracks for 77 h about Montserrat during December 2007, firing 4414 airgun shots and yielding about 47 Gb of data. The main objecctives of the experiment were achieved. Preliminary analyses of these data published in 2010 generated images of heterogeneous high-velocity bodies representing the cores of volcanoes and subjacent intrusions, and shallow areas of low velocity on the flanks of the island that reflect volcaniclastic deposits and hydrothermal alteration. The resolution of this preliminary work did not extend beyond 5 km depth. An improved three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model was then obtained by inversion of 181 665 first-arrival travel times from a more-complete sampling of the dataset, yielding clear images to 7.5 km depth of a low-velocity volume that was interpreted as the magma chamber which feeds the current eruption, with an estimated volume 13 km3. Coupled thermal and seismic modelling revealed properties of the partly crystallized magma. Seismic reflection analyses aimed at imaging structures under southern Montserrat had limited success, and suggest subhorizontal layering interpreted as sills at a depth of between 6 and 19 km. Seismic reflection profiles collected offshore reveal deep fans of volcaniclastic debris and fault offsets, leading to new tectonic interpretations. This chapter presents the project goals and planning concepts, describes in detail the campaigns at sea and on land, summarizes the major results, and identifies the key lessons learned.

Aligning off-balance sheet risk, on-balance sheet risk and audit fees: a PLS path modelling analysis

This study focuses on using the partial least squares (PLS) path modelling technique in archival auditing research by replicating the data and research questions from prior bank audit fee studies. PLS path modelling allows for inter-correlations among audit fee determinants by establishing latent constructs and multiple relationship paths in one simultaneous PLS path model. Endogeneity concerns about auditor choice can also be addressed with PLS path modelling. With a sample of US bank holding companies for the period 2003-2009, we examine the associations among on-balance sheet financial risks, off-balance sheet risks and audit fees, and also address the pervasive client size effect, and the effect of the self-selection of auditors. The results endorse the dominating effect of size on audit fees, both directly and indirectly via its impacts on other audit fee determinants. By simultaneously considering the self-selection of auditors, we still find audit fee premiums on Big N auditors, which is the second important factor on audit fee determination. On-balance-sheet financial risk measures in terms of capital adequacy, loan composition, earnings and asset quality performance have positive impacts on audit fees. After allowing for the positive influence of on-balance sheet financial risks and entity size on off-balance sheet risk, the off-balance sheet risk measure, SECRISK, is still positively associated with bank audit fees, both before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The consistent results from this study compared with prior literature provide supporting evidence and enhance confidence on the application of this new research technique in archival accounting studies.

Aligning off-balance sheet risk, on-balance sheet risk and audit fees: a PLS path modelling analysis

This study focuses on using the partial least squares (PLS) path modelling methodology in archival auditing research by replicating the data and research questions from prior bank audit fee studies. PLS path modelling allows for inter-correlations among audit fee determinants by establishing latent constructs and multiple relationship paths in one simultaneous PLS path model. Endogeneity concerns about auditor choice can also be addressed with PLS path modelling. With a sample of US bank holding companies for the period 2003-2009, we examine the associations among on-balance sheet financial risks, off-balance sheet risks and audit fees, and also address the pervasive client size effect, and the effect of the self-selection of auditors. The results endorse the dominating effect of size on audit fees, both directly and indirectly via its impacts on other audit fee determinants. By simultaneously considering the self-selection of auditors, we still find audit fee premiums on Big N auditors, which is the second important factor on audit fee determination. On-balance-sheet financial risk measures in terms of capital adequacy, loan composition, earnings and asset quality performance have positive impacts on audit fees. After allowing for the positive influence of on-balance sheet financial risks and entity size on off-balance sheet risk, the off-balance sheet risk measure, SECRISK, is still positively associated with bank audit fees, both before and after the onset of the financial crisis. The consistent results from this study compared with prior literature provide supporting evidence and enhance confidence on the application of this new research technique in archival accounting studies.

Empirical modelling of rolling shutter effect

We propose and evaluate a novel methodology to identify the rolling shutter parameters of a real camera. We also present a model for the geometric distortion introduced when a moving camera with a rolling shutter views a scene. Unlike previous work this model allows for arbitrary camera motion, including accelerations, is exact rather than a linearization and allows for arbitrary camera projection models, for example fisheye or panoramic. We show the significance of the errors introduced by a rolling shutter for typical robot vision problems such as structure from motion, visual odometry and pose estimation.

Systems modelling of mine water and energy tradeoffs

In the coming decades, the mining industry faces the dual challenge of lowering both its water and energy use. This presents a difficulty since technological advances that decrease the use of one can increase the use of the other. Historically, energy and water use have been modelled independently, making it difficult to evaluate the true costs and benefits from water and energy improvements. This paper presents a hierarchical systems model that is able to represent interconnected water and energy use at a whole of site scale. In order to explore the links between water and energy four technologies advancements have been modelled: use of dust suppression additives, the adoption of thickened tailings, the transition to dry processing and the incorporation of a treatment plant. The results show a synergy between decreased water and energy use for dust suppression additives, but a trade-off for the others.

Modelling total duration of traffic incidents including incident detection and recovery time

Traffic incidents are key contributors to non-recurrent congestion, potentially generating significant delay. Factors that influence the duration of incidents are important to understand so that effective mitigation strategies can be implemented. To identify and quantify the effects of influential factors, a methodology for studying total incident duration based on historical data from an ‘integrated database’ is proposed. Incident duration models are developed using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. The models include incident detection and recovery time as components of incident duration. A hazard-based duration modelling approach is applied to model incident duration as a function of a variety of factors that influence traffic incident duration. Parametric accelerated failure time survival models are developed to capture heterogeneity as a function of explanatory variables, with both fixed and random parameters specifications. The analysis reveals that factors affecting incident duration include incident characteristics (severity, type, injury, medical requirements, etc.), infrastructure characteristics (roadway shoulder availability), time of day, and traffic characteristics. The results indicate that event type durations are uniquely different, thus requiring different responses to effectively clear them. Furthermore, the results highlight the presence of unobserved incident duration heterogeneity as captured by the random parameter models, suggesting that additional factors need to be considered in future modelling efforts.

Measuring, modelling and understanding the mechanical behavior of bagasse

In the Australian sugar industry, sugar cane is smashed into a straw like material by hammers before being squeezed between large rollers to extract the sugar juice. The straw like material is initially called prepared cane and then bagasse as it passes through successive roller milling units. The sugar cane materials are highly compressible, have high moisture content, are fibrous, and they resemble some peat soils in both appearance and mechanical behaviour. A promising avenue to improve the performance of milling units for increased throughput and juice extraction, and to reduce costs is by modelling of the crushing process. To achieve this, it is believed necessary that milling models should be able to reproduce measured bagasse behaviour. This investigation sought to measure the mechanical (compression, shear, and volume) behaviour of prepared cane and bagasse, to identify limitations in currently used material models, and to progress towards a material model that can predict bagasse behaviour adequately. Tests were carried out using a modified direct shear test equipment and procedure at most of the large range of pressures occurring in the crushing process. The investigation included an assessment of the performance of the direct shear test for measuring bagasse behaviour. The assessment was carried out using finite element modelling. It was shown that prepared cane and bagasse exhibited critical state behavior similar to that of soils and the magnitudes of material parameters were determined. The measurements were used to identify desirable features for a bagasse material model. It was shown that currently used material models had major limitations for reproducing bagasse behaviour. A model from the soil mechanics literature was modified and shown to achieve improved reproduction while using magnitudes of material parameters that better reflected the measured values. Finally, a typical three roller mill pressure feeder configuration was modelled. The predictions and limitations were assessed by comparison to measured data from a sugar factory.

Review and future options for computer modelling in the sugar industry

Computer modelling has been used extensively in some processes in the sugar industry to achieve significant gains. This paper reviews the investigations carried out over approximately the last twenty five years,including the successes but also areas where problems and delays have been encountered. In that time the capability of both hardware and software have increased dramatically. For some processes such as cane cleaning, cane billet preparation, and sugar drying, the application of computer modelling towards improved equipment design and operation has been quite limited. A particular problem has been the large number of particles and particle interactions in these applications, which, if modelled individually, is computationally very intensive. Despite the problems, some attempts have already been made and knowledge gained on tackling these issues. Even if the detailed modelling is wanting, a model can provide some useful insights into the processes. Some options to attack these more intensive problems include the use of commercial software packages, which are usually very robust and allow the addition of user-supplied subroutines to adapt the software to particular problems. Suppliers of such software usually charge a fee per CPU licence, which is often problematic for large problems that require the use of many CPUs. Another option to consider is using open source software that has been developed with the capability to access large parallel resources. Such software has the added advantage of access to the full internal coding. This paper identifies and discusses the detail of software options with the potential capability to achieve improvements in the sugar industry.

Modelling of the mechanical behaviour of heavily over-consolidated bagasse

A better understanding of the behaviour of prepared cane and bagasse, and the ability to model the mechanical behaviour of bagasse as it is squeezed in a milling unit to extract juice, would help identify how to improve the current process, for example to reduce final bagasse moisture. Previous investigations have proven that juice flow through bagasse obeys Darcy’s permeability law, that the grip of the rough surface of the grooves on the bagasse can be represented by the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion for soils, and that the internal mechanical behaviour of the bagasse is critical state behaviour similar to that for sand and clay. Current Finite Element Models (FEM) available in commercial software have adequate permeability models. However, no commercially available software seems to contain an adequate mechanical model for bagasse. The same software contains a few material models for soil and other materials, while the coding of hundreds of developed models for soil and other materials remains confidential at universities and government research centres. Progress has been made in the last ten years towards implementing a mechanical model for bagasse in finite element software code. This paper builds on that progress and carries out a further step towards obtaining an adequate material model. The fifth and final loading condition outlined previously, shearing of heavily over-consolidated bagasse, is outlined.

Short utterance PLDA speaker verification using SN-WLDA and variance modelling techniques

This paper proposes a combination of source-normalized weighted linear discriminant analysis (SN-WLDA) and short utterance variance (SUV) PLDA modelling to improve the short utterance PLDA speaker verification. As short-length utterance i-vectors vary with the speaker, session variations and phonetic content of the utterance (utterance variation), a combined approach of SN-WLDA projection and SUV PLDA modelling is used to compensate the session and utterance variations. Experimental studies have found that a combination of SN-WLDA and SUV PLDA modelling approach shows an improvement over baseline system (WCCN[LDA]-projected Gaussian PLDA (GPLDA)) as this approach effectively compensates the session and utterance variations.

Mathematical modelling and experimental validation of solar assisted heat pump system

Singapore is located at the equator, with abundant supply of solar radiation, relatively high ambient temperature and relative humidity throughout the year. The meteorological conditions of Singapore are favourable for efficient operation of solar energy based systems. Solar assisted heat pump systems are built on the roof-top of National University of Singapore’s Faculty of Engineering. The objectives of this study include the design and performance evaluation of a solar assisted heat-pump system for water desalination, water heating and drying of clothes. Using MATLAB programming language, a 2-dimensional simulation model has been developed to conduct parametric studies on the system. The system shows good prospect to be implemented in both industrial and residential applications and would give new opportunities in replacing conventional energy sources with green renewable energy.