Parameter estimation in the presence of auxiliary information

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutora em Estatística e Gestão de Risco, Especialidade em Estatística

Application of geographic information system and modelling in health impact assessment for urban road mobility in Vietnam

Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributing to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer, and physical injuries. This thesis presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Hai Phong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and GIS approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-references data. A simplified health risk assessment was also done for Ha Noi based on monitoring data that allows a comparison of the results between the two cases. The results of the case studies show that health risk assessment based on modelling data can provide a much more detail results and allows assessing health impacts of different mobility development options at micro level. The use of modeling and GIS as a common platform for the integration of different assessments (environmental, health, socio-economic, etc.) provides various strengths, especially in capitalising on the available data stored in different units and forms and allows handling large amount of data. The use of models and GIS in a health risk assessment, from a decision making point of view, can reduce the processing/waiting time while providing a view at different scales: from micro scale (sections of a city) to a macro scale. It also helps visualising the links between air quality and health outcomes which is useful discussing different development options. However, a number of improvements can be made to further advance the integration. An improved integration programme of the data will facilitate the application of integrated models in policy-making. Data on mobility survey, environmental monitoring and measuring must be standardised and legalised. Various traffic models, together with emission and dispersion models, should be tested and more attention should be given to their uncertainty and sensitivity

Reliability of the information about the history of diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. Differences in regard to sex, age, and educational level. The pró-saúde study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the intraobserver reliability of the information about the history of diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. METHODS: A multidimensional health questionnaire, which was filled out by the interviewees, was applied twice with an interval of 2 weeks, in July '99, to 192 employees of the University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), stratified by sex, age, and educational level. The intraobserver reliability of the answers provided was estimated by the kappa statistic and by the coefficient of intraclass correlation (CICC). RESULTS: The general kappa (k) statistic was 0.75 (95% CI=0.73-0.77). Reliability was higher among females (k=0.88, 95% CI=0.85-0.91) than among males (k=0.62, 95% CI=0.59-0.65).The reliability was higher among individuals 40 years of age or older (k=0.79; 95% CI=0.73-0.84) than those from 18 to 39 years (k=0.52; 95% CI=0.45-0.57). Finally, the kappa statistic was higher among individuals with a university educational level (k=0.86; 95% CI=0.81-0.91) than among those with high school educational level (k=0.61; 95% CI=0.53-0.70) or those with middle school educational level (k=0.68; 95% CI=0.64-0.72). The coefficient of intraclass correlation estimated by the intraobserver agreement in regard to age at the time of the diagnosis of hypertension was 0.74. A perfect agreement between the 2 answers (k=1.00) was observed for 22 interviewees who reported prior prescription of antihypertensive medication. CONCLUSION: In the population studied, estimates of the reliability of the history of medical diagnosis of hypertension and its treatment ranged from substantial to almost perfect reliability.

influence of different forms of outcome information on the neural substrates of the acquisition and representation of categories

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Naturwiss., Diss., 2012

Security prices and market transparency: the role of prior information

This paper analyzes the role of traders' priors (proper versus improper) on the implications of market transparency by comparing a pre-trade transparent market with an opaque market in a set-up based on Madhavan (1996). We show that prices may be more informative in the opaque market, regardless of how priors are modelled. In contrast, the comparison of market liquidity and volatility in the two market structures are affected by prior specification. Key words: Market microstructure, Transparency, Prior information

Modeling usage of medical care services: the medical expenditure panel survey data, 1996-2000

We explore the determinants of usage of six different types of health care services, using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data, years 1996-2000. We apply a number of models for univariate count data, including semiparametric, semi-nonparametric and finite mixture models. We find that the complexity of the model that is required to fit the data well depends upon the way in which the data is pooled across sexes and over time, and upon the characteristics of the usage measure. Pooling across time and sexes is almost always favored, but when more heterogeneous data is pooled it is often the case that a more complex statistical model is required.

Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

Code of Practice on Confidentiality of Patient Information (PDF 108 KB)

Code of Practice on Confidentiality of Patient Information

Key Indicators of Personal Social Services for Northern Ireland 2003

Social Services expenditure and provision in NI

Key Indicators of Personal Social Services for Northern Ireland 2002

Social Services expenditure and provision in NI