Tracing the Evidence: The Use of Evaluation Results in Direct-Democratic Campaigns

Although research on direct-democratic campaigns in Switzerland has intensified in the last decade, detailed information on the use of evidence in campaigns is still lacking. Our research aims to contribute both to research on direct democracy and to research on evidence-based policy making, by analyzing how evaluation results are used in directdemocratic campaigns. In this conceptual paper, the formulation of our hypothesis is based on a model of evaluation influence that traces the different uses of evaluation results in the process of a direct-democratic campaign. We assume that the policy analytical capacity of individual members in parliament, government and administration in the (pre)-parliamentary process fosters the use of evidence in campaigns. In the course of the campaign, symbolic use of evaluation in the form of justification, persuasion or mobilization prevails. We assume that the media is an important player in making transparent how political actors use evidence to support their positions. Evidence itself often remains ambiguous and uncertain, and evaluations are influenced by the values of the evaluator. To be able to make the right decisions, therefore, citizens should learn about possible interpretations in argumentative processes. For us, the context of direct democracy in Switzerland provides the setting for such a discourse that, besides evidence, brings up different opinions, values and beliefs.

Estimation of reference curves for the urinary steroid metabolome in the first year of life in healthy children: tracing the complexity of human postnatal steroidogenesis

CONTEXT Complex steroid disorders such as P450 oxidoreductase deficiency or apparent cortisone reductase deficiency may be recognized by steroid profiling using chromatographic mass spectrometric methods. These methods are highly specific and sensitive, and provide a complete spectrum of steroid metabolites in a single measurement of one sample which makes them superior to immunoassays. The steroid metabolome during the fetal-neonatal transition is characterized by a) the metabolites of the fetal-placental unit at birth, b) the fetal adrenal androgens until its involution 3-6 months postnatally, and c) the steroid metabolites produced by the developing endocrine organs. All these developmental events change the steroid metabolome in an age- and sex-dependent manner during the first year of life. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to provide normative values for the urinary steroid metabolome of healthy newborns at short time intervals in the first year of life. METHODS We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study to measure 67 urinary steroid metabolites in 21 male and 22 female term healthy newborn infants at 13 time-points from week 1 to week 49 of life. Urine samples were collected from newborn infants before discharge from hospital and from healthy infants at home. Steroid metabolites were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and steroid concentrations corrected for urinary creatinine excretion were calculated. RESULTS 61 steroids showed age and 15 steroids sex specificity. Highest urinary steroid concentrations were found in both sexes for progesterone derivatives, in particular 20α-DH-5α-DH-progesterone, and for highly polar 6α-hydroxylated glucocorticoids. The steroids peaked at week 3 and decreased by ∼80% at week 25 in both sexes. The decline of progestins, androgens and estrogens was more pronounced than of glucocorticoids whereas the excretion of corticosterone and its metabolites and of mineralocorticoids remained constant during the first year of life. CONCLUSION The urinary steroid profile changes dramatically during the first year of life and correlates with the physiologic developmental changes during the fetal-neonatal transition. Thus detailed normative data during this time period permit the use of steroid profiling as a powerful diagnostic tool.

Tracing reinforcement through asymmetrical partner preference in the European common vole Microtus arvalis

Background The mechanistic basis of speciation and in particular the contribution of behaviour to the completion of the speciation process is often contentious. Contact zones between related taxa provide a situation where selection against hybridization might reinforce separation by behavioural mechanisms, which could ultimately fully isolate the taxa. One of the most abundant European mammals, the common vole Microtus arvalis, forms multiple natural hybrid zones where rapidly diverging evolutionary lineages meet in secondary contact. Very narrow zones of hybridization spanning only a few kilometres and sex-specific gene flow patterns indicate reduced fitness of natural hybrids and incipient speciation between some of the evolutionary lineages. In this study, we examined the contribution of behavioural mechanisms to the speciation process in these rodents by fine-mapping allopatric and parapatric populations in the hybrid zone between the Western and Central lineages and experimental testing of the partner preferences of wild, pure-bred and hybrid female common voles. Results Genetic analysis based on microsatellite markers revealed the presence of multiple parapatric and largely non-admixed populations at distances of about 10 km at the edge of the area of natural hybridization between the Western and Central lineages. Wild females from Western parapatric populations and lab-born F1 hybrids preferred males from the Western lineage whereas wild females of Central parapatric origin showed no measurable preference. Furthermore, wild and lab-born females from allopatric populations of the Western or Central lineages showed no detectable preference for males from either lineage. Conclusions The detected partner preferences are consistent with asymmetrical reinforcement of pre-mating reproductive isolation mechanisms in the European common vole and with earlier results suggesting that hybridization is more detrimental to the Western lineage. As a consequence, these differences in behaviour might contribute to a further geographical stabilization of this moving hybrid zone. Such behavioural processes could also provide a mechanistic perspective for frequently-detected asymmetrical introgression patterns in the largely allopatrically diversifying Microtus genus and other rapidly speciating rodents.

Pan-epicardial lineage tracing reveals that epicardium derived cells give rise to myofibroblasts and perivascular cells during zebrafish heart regeneration.

Myocardial infarction (MI) leads to a severe loss of cardiomyocytes, which in mammals are replaced by scar tissue. Epicardial derived cells (EPDCs) have been reported to differentiate into cardiomyocytes during development, and proposed to have cardiomyogenic potential in the adult heart. However, mouse MI models reveal little if any contribution of EPDCs to myocardium. In contrast to adult mammals, teleosts possess a high myocardial regenerative capacity. To test if this advantage relates to the properties of their epicardium, we studied the fate of EPDCs in cryoinjured zebrafish hearts. To avoid the limitations of genetic labelling, which might trace only a subpopulation of EPDCs, we used cell transplantation to track all EPDCs during regeneration. EPDCs migrated to the injured myocardium, where they differentiated into myofibroblasts and perivascular fibroblasts. However, we did not detect any differentiation of EPDCs nor any other non-cardiomyocyte population into cardiomyocytes, even in a context of impaired cardiomyocyte proliferation. Our results support a model in which the epicardium promotes myocardial regeneration by forming a cellular scaffold, and suggests that it might induce cardiomyocyte proliferation and contribute to neoangiogenesis in a paracrine manner.

[Lineage tracing of epicardial cells during development and regeneration].

Tracing the history of individual cells during embryonic morphogenesis in a structure as complex as the cardiovascular system is one of the major challenges of developmental biology. It involves determining the relationships between the various lineages of cells forming an organ at different stages, describing the topological rearrangements tissues undergo during morphogenesis, and characterizing the interactions between cells in different structures. However, despite the great expectations raised in the field of regenerative medicine, only limited progress has been made in using regenerative therapy to repair the cardiovascular system. Recent research has highlighted the role of the epicardium during cardiac regeneration, but it is still unclear whether it is important for molecular signaling or acts as a source of progenitor cells during this process. Consequently, increasing knowledge about the origin, diversification and potential of epicardial cells during development and homeostasis and under pathological conditions is of fundamental importance both for basic research and for the development of effective cellular therapies. The aims of this article were to provide a general overview of the classical techniques used for tracing cell lineages, including their potential and limitations, and to describe novel techniques for studying the origin and differentiation of the epicardium and its role in cardiac regeneration.

Revolution to Revolution: Tracing Egyptian Public Art from Saad Zaghloul to January 25

Artists have spent a century claiming Egypt for the Egyptians. Now the powerful murals of January 25 have created a new public space dedicated to every citizen.

Gradient-domain Path Tracing

We introduce gradient-domain rendering for Monte Carlo image synthesis.While previous gradient-domain Metropolis Light Transport sought to distribute more samples in areas of high gradients, we show, in contrast, that estimating image gradients is also possible using standard (non-Metropolis) Monte Carlo algorithms, and furthermore, that even without changing the sample distribution, this often leads to significant error reduction. This broadens the applicability of gradient rendering considerably. To gain insight into the conditions under which gradient-domain sampling is beneficial, we present a frequency analysis that compares Monte Carlo sampling of gradients followed by Poisson reconstruction to traditional Monte Carlo sampling. Finally, we describe Gradient-Domain Path Tracing (G-PT), a relatively simple modification of the standard path tracing algorithm that can yield far superior results.

Comparison of alternative methods of contact tracing in a syphilis control program

The purpose of this study was to compare the relative effectiveness of alternative methods of tracing named contacts of syphilis patients. A total of 236 contacts, identified by patients in two City of Houston Department of Health and Human Services clinics during the period April 1 through July 31, 1987, were studied. After contacts were grouped by sex and age, the proportion brought to examination by each of three methods, and by a combination of methods, was determined for each subgroup.^ The study found that 78.4% of all the 236 named sex contacts reported were located and brought to examination by the various methods of contact tracing and that 21.6% were missed. Of the 185 contacts examined, a combination of methods identified 47.7% of the cases, telephone contact, 28.6%, field contact, 16.9%, and patient referral, 11.8%.^ Of the 236 contacts reported, males made up 56.8% and females 43.2%. Contact tracing was more successful among females, with 81.4% of the 102 named female contacts, as compared to 76.1% of the 134 named male contacts being brought to examination. It is not known whether equal efforts were exerted in the follow-up of both male and female contacts. In both female and male subgroups, a combination of methods brought over 40% of sex contacts to examination. Telephone contact among females yielded 27.7% of the cases and field contact 18.1%, whereas in males, telephone contact identified 29.4% of the cases and field contact 15.7%. Patient referral was the least productive method in both sex groups, locating 12.8% in males as compared to 10.8% in females.^ On an age specific basis, a combination of methods was the most effective method in the 15-39 age group, whereas telephone contact was most effective in the 40-44 age group, and field contact in the 50-54 age group. Of all the methods of contact tracing, patient referral was the least productive in most age groups.^ Future studies of contact tracing should incorporate several important variables which were not examined in this study. ^

Lagrangian back-tracing results for Kohnen station; output of time dependent numerical experiment with a 3D nested Antarctic ice sheet model

A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3-D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves.

Tracing CO2 emissions in global value chains

This paper integrates two lines of research into a unified conceptual framework: trade in global value chains and embodied emissions. This allows both value added and emissions to be systematically traced at the country, sector, and bilateral levels through various production network routes. By combining value-added and emissions accounting in a consistent way, the potential environmental cost (amount of emissions per unit of value added) along global value chains can be estimated. Using this unified accounting method, we trace CO2 emissions in the global production and trade network among 41 economies in 35 sectors from 1995 to 2009, basing our calculations on the World Input–Output Database, and show how they help us to better understand the impact of cross-country production sharing on the environment.

Tracing environmental and cultural changes throughout the Gran Dolina TD10 Middle Pleistocene sequence (Atapuerca, Burgos, Spain)

The well-known eponym El Sidrón has a very special history. It started with the development of a karstic system between two types of rock (sandstone and Neogene conglomerates) as a result of the flow of a small stream. It continued with the use of the cave as a refuge and a hiding place during the Spanish Civil War and the aftermath and with the presence of some endemic species of bats and cave insects

Typing of urinary JC virus DNA offers a novel means of tracing human migrations

Although polyomavirus JC (JCV) is the proven pathogen of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, the fatal demyelinating disease, this virus is ubiquitous as a usually harmless symbiote among human beings. JCV propagates in the adult kidney and excretes its progeny in urine, from which JCV DNA can readily be recovered. The main mode of transmission of JCV is from parents to children through long cohabitation. In this study, we collected a substantial number of urine samples from native inhabitants of 34 countries in Europe, Africa, and Asia. A 610-bp segment of JCV DNA was amplified from each urine sample, and its DNA sequence was determined. A worldwide phylogenetic tree subsequently constructed revealed the presence of nine subtypes including minor ones. Five subtypes (EU, Af2, B1, SC, and CY) occupied rather large territories that overlapped with each other at their boundaries. The entire Europe, northern Africa, and western Asia were the domain of EU, whereas the domain of Af2 included nearly all of Africa and southwestern Asia all the way to the northeastern edge of India. Partially overlapping domains in Asia were occupied by subtypes B1, SC, and CY. Of particular interest was the recovery of JCV subtypes in a pocket or pockets that were separated by great geographic distances from the main domains of those subtypes. Certain of these pockets can readily be explained by recent migrations of human populations carrying these subtypes. Overall, it appears that JCV genotyping promises to reveal previously unknown human migration routes: ancient as well as recent.