Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company.

Urinary biomolecular indicators of exercise-induced over exertion injury

Poor health and injury represent major obstacles to the future economic security of Australia. The national economic cost of work-related injury is estimated at $57.5 billion p/a. Since exposure to high physical demands is a major risk factor for musculoskeletal injury, monitoring and managing such physical activity levels in workers is a potentially important injury prevention strategy. Current injury monitoring practices are inadequate for the provision of clinically valuable information about the tissue specific responses to physical exertion. Injury of various soft tissue structures can manifest over time through accumulation of micro-trauma. Such micro-trauma has a propensity to increase the risk of acute injuries to soft-tissue structures such as muscle or tendon. As such, the capacity to monitor biomarkers that result from the disruption of these tissues offers a means of assisting the pre-emptive management of subclinical injury prior to acute failure or for evaluation of recovery processes. Here we have adopted an in-vivo exercise induced muscle damage model allowing the application of laboratory controlled conditions to assist in uncovering biochemical indicators associated with soft-tissue trauma and recovery. Importantly, urine was utilised as the diagnostic medium since it is non-invasive to collect, more acceptable to workers and less costly to employers. Moreover, it is our hypothesis that exercise induced tissue degradation products enter the circulation and are subsequently filtered by the kidney and pass through to the urine. To test this hypothesis a range of metabolomic and proteomic discovery-phase techniques were used, along with targeted approaches. Several small molecules relating to tissue damage were identified along with a series of skeletal muscle-specific protein fragments resulting from exercise induced soft-tissue damage. Each of the potential biomolecular markers appeared to be temporally present within urine. Moreover, the regulation of abundance seemed to be associated with functional recovery following the injury. This discovery may have important clinical applications for monitoring of a variety of inflammatory myopathies as well as novel applications in monitoring of the musculoskeletal health status of workers, professional athletes and/or military personnel to reduce the onset of potentially debilitating musculoskeletal injuries within these professions.

Investigation of Association between PFO complicated by cryptogenic stroke and a common variant of the cardiac transcription factor GATA4

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is associated with clinical conditions including cryptogenic stroke, migraine and varicose veins. Data from studies in humans and mouse suggest that PFO and the secundum form of atrial septal defect (ASDII) exist in an anatomical continuum of septal dysmorphogenesis with a common genetic basis. Mutations in multiple members of the evolutionarily conserved cardiac transcription factor network, including GATA4, cause or predispose to ASDII and PFO. Here, we assessed whether the most prevalent variant of the GATA4 gene, S377G, was significantly associated with PFO or ASD. Our analysis of world indigenous populations showed that GATA4 S377G was largely Caucasian-specific, and so subjects were restricted to those of Caucasian descent. To select for patients with larger PFO, we limited our analysis to those with cryptogenic stroke in which PFO was a subsequent finding. In an initial study of Australian subjects, we observed a weak association between GATA4 S377G and PFO/Stroke relative to Caucasian controls in whom ASD and PFO had been excluded (OR = 2.16; p = 0.02). However, in a follow up study of German Caucasians no association was found with either PFO or ASD. Analysis of combined Australian and German data confirmed the lack of a significant association. Thus, the common GATA4 variant S377G is likely to be relatively benign in terms of its participation in CHD and PFO/Stroke.

Phenotypical characterisation of the isolated Norfolk Island population focusing on epidemiological indicators of cardiovascular disease

Objectives Only 193 people from Pitcairn Island, all descended from 9 ‘Bounty’ mutineers and 12 Tahitian women, moved to the uninhabited Norfolk Island in 1856. Our objective was to assess the population of Norfolk Island, several thousand km off the eastern coast of Australia, as a genetic isolate of potential use for cardiovascular disease (CVD) gene mapping. Methods A total of 602 participants, approximately two thirds of the island’s present adult population, were characterized for a panel of CVD risk factors. Statistical power and heritability were calculated. Results Norfolk Islander’s possess an increased prevalence of hypertension, obesity and multiple CVD risk factors when compared to outbred Caucasian populations. 64% of the study participants were descendents of the island’s original founder population. Triglycerides, cholesterol, and blood pressures all had heritabilities above 0.2. Conclusions The Norfolk land population is a potentially useful genetic isolate for gene mapping studies aimed at identifying CVD risk factor quantitative trait loci (QTL).

Surrogate indicators for assessing community resilience

The importance of community resilience to natural disasters is being increasingly recognised. This paper presents an approach for the development of surrogate indicators for comprehensive assessment of community resilience, which is crucial in the context of predicted increase in natural disasters resulting from extreme weather events due to climate change. The use of surrogate indicators is advocated because a comprehensive assessment of community resilience across various thematic areas and associated key areas requires the measurement of a large number of resilience indicators which is not always feasible due to time and resource constraints, To overcome this, researchers tend to use secondary data sources, which are easily available but not always reliable. This highlights the need for surrogate indicators that are easy to measure from reliable primary data sources and are adequate to capture the resilience of a community. Firstly, the paper discusses the two approaches for defining and conceptualising community resilience and the need to account for the complex interrelationships between thematic areas, key areas and resilience indicators and their implications for research. Secondly, a comprehensive framework for the assessment of community resilience is proposed and the difficulties associated with the measurement of overall resilience of the community are discussed. Thirdly, the paper explains a two-step approach to develop surrogate indicators highlighting the necessity and challenges associated with it. Finally, the proposed approach is elaborated with a simple example for better understanding.

Child eating behaviour outcomes of an early feeding intervention to reduce risk indicators for child obesity : the NOURISH RCT

Objective Describe parent-reported child eating behaviour and maternal parenting impact outcomes of an infant feeding intervention to reduce child obesity risk. Design and Methods An assessor masked Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) with concealed allocation of individual mother-infant dyads. The NOURISH RCT enrolled 698 first-time mothers (mean age 30.1 years, SD=5.3) with healthy term infants (51% female) aged 4.3 months (SD=1.0) at baseline. Outcomes were assessed six months post-intervention when the children were 2-years old. Mothers reported on child eating behaviours using the Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ), food preferences and dietary intake using a 24-hour telephone recall. Parenting was assessed using five scales validated for use in Australia. Results Intervention effects were evident on the CEBQ overall (MANOVA P=.002) and 4/8 subscales: child satiety responsiveness (P=.03), fussiness (P=.01), emotional overeating (P<.01), and food responsiveness (P=.06). Intervention children ‘liked’ more fruits (P<.01) and fewer non-core foods and beverages (Ps=.06, .03). The intervention mothers reported greater ‘autonomy encouragement’ (P=.002) Conclusions Anticipatory guidance on protective feeding practices appears to have modest positive impacts on child eating behaviours that are postulated to reduce future obesity risk.

Survival tucker : improved diet and health indicators in an Aboriginal community

The poor nutritional status of Aboriginal Australians is a serious and complex public health concern. We describe an unusually successful health and nutrition project initiated by the people of Minjilang, which was developed, implemented and evaluated with the community. Apparent community dietary intake, assessed by the ‘store-turnover’ method, and biochemical, anthropometric and haematological indicators of health and nutritional status were measured before intervention and at three-monthly intervals during the intervention year. Following intervention, there was a significant decrease in dietary intake of sugar and saturated fat, an increase in micronutrient density, corresponding improvements in biochemical indices (for example, a 12 per cent decrease in mean serum cholesterol, increases in serum and red cell folate, serum vitamin B6 and plasma ascorbic acid), decrease in mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures, a normalisation of body mass index, and a normalisation of haematologic indices. The success of this project demonstrates that Aboriginal communities can bring about improvements in their generally poor nutritional status, and that the store-turnover method provides a valid, inexpensive and noninvasive method for evaluating the resultant changes in community diet. Although the project was undoubtedly effective in the short term, further work is in progress to assess individual strategies with respect to sustainability, cost-effectiveness and generalisability.

Swimmer localization from a moving camera

At the highest level of competitive sport, nearly all performances of athletes (both training and competitive) are chronicled using video. Video is then often viewed by expert coaches/analysts who then manually label important performance indicators to gauge performance. Stroke-rate and pacing are important performance measures in swimming, and these are previously digitised manually by a human. This is problematic as annotating large volumes of video can be costly, and time-consuming. Further, since it is difficult to accurately estimate the position of the swimmer at each frame, measures such as stroke rate are generally aggregated over an entire swimming lap. Vision-based techniques which can automatically, objectively and reliably track the swimmer and their location can potentially solve these issues and allow for large-scale analysis of a swimmer across many videos. However, the aquatic environment is challenging due to fluctuations in scene from splashes, reflections and because swimmers are frequently submerged at different points in a race. In this paper, we temporally segment races into distinct and sequential states, and propose a multimodal approach which employs individual detectors tuned to each race state. Our approach allows the swimmer to be located and tracked smoothly in each frame despite a diverse range of constraints. We test our approach on a video dataset compiled at the 2012 Australian Short Course Swimming Championships.

A preliminary study of the effects of Tai Chi and Qigong medical exercise on indicators of metabolic syndrome, glycaemic control, health-related quality of life, and psychological health in adults with elevated blood glucose

Objectives To evaluate the feasibility, acceptability and effects of a Tai Chi and Qigong exercise programme in adults with elevated blood glucose. Design, Setting, and Participants A single group pre–post feasibility trial with 11 participants (3 male and 8 female; aged 42–65 years) with elevated blood glucose. Intervention Participants attended Tai Chi and Qigong exercise training for 1 to 1.5 h, 3 times per week for 12 weeks, and were encouraged to practise the exercises at home. Main Outcome Measures Indicators of metabolic syndrome (body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol); glucose control (HbA1c, fasting insulin and insulin resistance (HOMA)); health-related quality of life; stress and depressive symptoms. Results There was good adherence and high acceptability. There were significant improvements in four of the seven indicators of metabolic syndrome including BMI (mean difference −1.05, p<0.001), waist circumference (−2.80 cm, p<0.05), and systolic (−11.64 mm Hg, p<0.01) and diastolic blood pressure (−9.73 mm Hg, p<0.001), as well as in HbA1c (−0.32%, p<0.01), insulin resistance (−0.53, p<0.05), stress (−2.27, p<0.05), depressive symptoms (−3.60, p<0.05), and the SF-36 mental health summary score (5.13, p<0.05) and subscales for general health (19.00, p<0.01), mental health (10.55, p<0.01) and vitality (23.18, p<0.05). Conclusions The programme was feasible and acceptable and participants showed improvements in metabolic and psychological variables. A larger controlled trial is now needed to confirm these promising preliminary results.

Building indicators in media assistance; four ways evaluation reports present “change”

The international aid and development community has supported programs that aim to build the capacity of media professionals or contribute to an enabling environment throughout the past 20 years. However, two decades on from the first modern media assistance programs, the sector is still struggling to identify, measure and understand the changes effected by their programs. There are questions raised as to whether it is even feasible to identify impacts on society and governance. This paper draws on some preliminary findings from a comparative thematic analysis of 47 evaluation documents of media assistance programs. The aim of this analysis is to identify trends in impact evaluation practice in the media assistance field, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of different evaluation approaches. This paper presents four types of social change claims commonly presented in reports; hypothetical changes, introduction of new opportunities, concrete examples of immediate impacts, and analysis of ongoing social and political changes. Although these types may appear as a spectrum from weak to strong, the interactions are perhaps more accurately understood using metaphors such as building blocks. This paper explores these types in more detail and suggests that a robust set of impacts-types could be useful in developing more grounded theories of change and indicators.

Theory-based self-management programs for promoting recovery in community-dwelling stroke survivors : a systematic review

Background Post-stroke recovery is demanding. Increasing studies have examined the effectiveness of self-management programs for stroke survivors. However no systematic review has been conducted to summarize the effectiveness of theory-based stroke self-management programs. Objectives The aim is to present the best available research evidence about effectiveness of theory-based self-management programs on community-dwelling stroke survivors’ recovery. Inclusion criteria Types of participants All community-residing adults aged 18 years or above, and had a clinical diagnosis of stroke. Types of interventions Studies which examined effectiveness of a self-management program underpinned by a theoretical or conceptual framework for community-dwelling stroke survivors. Types of studies Randomized controlled trials. Types of outcomes Primary outcomes included health-related quality of life and self-management behaviors. Secondary outcomes included physical (activities of daily living), psychological (self-efficacy, depressive symptoms), and social outcomes (community reintegration, perceived social support). Search Strategy A three-step approach was adopted to identify all relevant published and unpublished studies in English or Chinese. Methodological quality The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist for experimental studies. Data Collection A standardized JBI data extraction form was used. There was no disagreement between the two reviewers on the data extraction results. Data Synthesis There were incomplete details about the number of participants and the results in two studies, which makes it impossible to perform meta-analysis. A narrative summary of the effectiveness of stroke self-management programs is presented. Results Three studies were included. The key issues of concern in methodological quality included insufficient information about random assignment, allocation concealment, reliability and validity of the measuring instruments, absence of intention-to-treat analysis, and small sample sizes. The three programs were designed based on the Stanford Chronic Disease Self-management program and were underpinned by the principles of self-efficacy. One study showed improvement in the intervention group in family and social roles three months after program completion, and work productivity at six months as measured by the Stroke Specific Quality of Life Scale (SSQOL). The intervention group also had an increased mean self-efficacy score in communicating with physicians six months after program completion. The mean changes from baseline in these variables were significantly different from the control group. No significant difference was found in time spent in aerobic exercise between the intervention and control groups at three and six months after program completion. Another study, using SSQOL, showed a significant interaction effect by treatment and time on family roles, fine motor tasks, self-care, and work productivity. However there was no significant interaction by treatment and time on self-efficacy. The third study showed improvement in quality of life, community participation, and depressive symptoms among the participants receiving the stroke self-management program, Stanford Chronic Disease Self-management program, or usual care six months after program completion. However, there was no significant difference between the groups. Conclusions There is inconclusive evidence about the effectiveness of theory-based stroke self-management programs on community-dwelling stroke survivors’ recovery. However the preliminary evidence suggests potential benefits in improving stroke survivors’ quality of life and self-efficacy.

Environmental indicators for sustainable road development and operation

Road construction, maintenance and operation are activities that impact the environment by way of energy use, resource consumption and emission. Components such as construction material, transportation, street lighting, rolling resistance, traffic congestion during works, albedo and end-of-life processing impact the environment at different phases of the life of a road. With a view to promote sustainable development, a few sustainability rating schemes, e.g. Infrastructure Sustainability and Invest (Australia), Envision and Greenroads (USA), and CEEQUAL (UK) have been developed, that can assess road projects. These schemes address environmental areas such as: energy and emission, land, water, materials, discharges into surroundings, waste and ecology as factors for sustainable development. This paper assesses different rating schemes based on a defined comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) system boundary for road projects to identify different environmental indicators that address sustainable road development and operation. The findings indicate that new indicators are required to address different environmental components during the operation phase of roads.

Measures of nutrient processes as indicators of stream ecosystem health

To better understand how freshwater ecosystems respond to changes in catchment land-use, it is important to develop measures of ecological health that include aspects of both ecosystem structure and function. This study investigated measures of nutrient processes as potential indicators of stream ecosystem health across a land-use gradient from relatively undisturbed to highly modified. A total of seven indicators (potential denitrification; an index of denitrification potential relative to sediment organic matter; benthic algal growth on artificial substrates amended with (a) N only, (b) P only, and (c) N and P; and δ15N of aquatic plants and benthic sediment) were measured at 53 streams in southeast Queensland, Australia. The indicators were evaluated by their response to a defined gradient of agricultural land-use disturbance as well as practical aspects of using the indicators as part of a monitoring program. Regression models based on descriptors of the disturbance gradient explained a large proportion of the variation in six of the seven indicators. Denitrification index, algal growth in N amended substrate, and δ15N of aquatic plants demonstrated the best regression. However, the δ15N value of benthic sediment was found to be the best indicator overall for incorporation into a monitoring program, as samples were relatively easy to collect and process, and were successfully collected at more than 90% of the study sites.