Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

Modelling water droplet movement on a leaf surface

The central aim for the research undertaken in this PhD thesis is the development of a model for simulating water droplet movement on a leaf surface and to compare the model behavior with experimental observations. A series of five papers has been presented to explain systematically the way in which this droplet modelling work has been realised. Knowing the path of the droplet on the leaf surface is important for understanding how a droplet of water, pesticide, or nutrient will be absorbed through the leaf surface. An important aspect of the research is the generation of a leaf surface representation that acts as the foundation of the droplet model. Initially a laser scanner is used to capture the surface characteristics for two types of leaves in the form of a large scattered data set. After the identification of the leaf surface boundary, a set of internal points is chosen over which a triangulation of the surface is constructed. We present a novel hybrid approach for leaf surface fitting on this triangulation that combines Clough-Tocher (CT) and radial basis function (RBF) methods to achieve a surface with a continuously turning normal. The accuracy of the hybrid technique is assessed using numerical experimentation. The hybrid CT-RBF method is shown to give good representations of Frangipani and Anthurium leaves. Such leaf models facilitate an understanding of plant development and permit the modelling of the interaction of plants with their environment. The motion of a droplet traversing this virtual leaf surface is affected by various forces including gravity, friction and resistance between the surface and the droplet. The innovation of our model is the use of thin-film theory in the context of droplet movement to determine the thickness of the droplet as it moves on the surface. Experimental verification shows that the droplet model captures reality quite well and produces realistic droplet motion on the leaf surface. Most importantly, we observed that the simulated droplet motion follows the contours of the surface and spreads as a thin film. In the future, the model may be applied to determine the path of a droplet of pesticide along a leaf surface before it falls from or comes to a standstill on the surface. It will also be used to study the paths of many droplets of water or pesticide moving and colliding on the surface.

Victoria regia's bequest to modern architecture

This paper will explore the relationship between the giant South American waterlily, the Victoria regia (today named Victoria amazonica), and the 1914 Glashaus exposition building by the German architect, Bruno Taut. Starting with a general botanical introduction of Victoria regia, the paper exposes the first European cultivation of the lily by Joseph Paxton at Chatsworth,England, in 1849. Following this initial cultivation, Paxton subsequently develops a specialist greenhouse for the plant, that later becomes the prototype for all Victoria regia greenhouses. However, from about 1860 as Victoria regia cultivation spreads to continental Europe, a greenhouse that differs from Paxton’s prototype subsequently evolves. An investigation of these later continental European greenhouses, coupled with an exposure of Taut’s own writings concerning Victoria regia, reveals startling similarities to the Glashaus, which ultimately reveals the Glashaus as directly inspired by Victoria regia.

Are in vitro estimates of cell diffusivity and cell proliferation rate sensitive to assay geometry?

Cells respond to various biochemical and physical cues during wound–healing and tumour progression. In vitro assays used to study these processes are typically conducted in one particular geometry and it is unclear how the assay geometry affects the capacity of cell populations to spread, or whether the relevant mechanisms, such as cell motility and cell proliferation, are somehow sensitive to the geometry of the assay. In this work we use a circular barrier assay to characterise the spreading of cell populations in two different geometries. Assay 1 describes a tumour–like geometry where a cell population spreads outwards into an open space. Assay 2 describes a wound–like geometry where a cell population spreads inwards to close a void. We use a combination of discrete and continuum mathematical models and automated image processing methods to obtain independent estimates of the effective cell diffusivity, D, and the effective cell proliferation rate, λ. Using our parameterised mathematical model we confirm that our estimates of D and λ accurately predict the time–evolution of the location of the leading edge and the cell density profiles for both assay 1 and assay 2. Our work suggests that the effective cell diffusivity is up to 50% lower for assay 2 compared to assay 1, whereas the effective cell proliferation rate is up to 30% lower for assay 2 compared to assay 1.

Broadcast anti-jamming systems

In a traditional anti-jamming system a transmitter who wants to send a signal to a single receiver spreads the signal power over a wide frequency spectrum with the aim of stopping a jammer from blocking the transmission. In this paper, we consider the case that there are multiple receivers and the transmitter wants to broadcast a message to all receivers such that colluding groups of receivers cannot jam the reception of any other receiver. We propose efficient coding methods that achieve this goal and link this problem to well-known problems in combinatorics. We also link a generalisation of this problem to the Key Distribution Pattern problem studied in combinatorial cryptography.

Corporate credit risk prediction under stochastic volatility and jumps

This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

Banking sector contingent liabilities and sovereign risk

The global financial crisis has underscored the need to pay attention to contingent government liabilities that could arise from bank failures for sovereign risk management. This paper proposes a simple method to construct a contingent liability index (CLI) for a banking sector that takes into account the size and concentration of the banking system, market expectations of bank defaults, and perceptions of government support to each bank. This method allows us to track potential government liabilities related to bank failures for 32 advanced and emerging economies on a monthly basis from 2006 to 2013. Furthermore, we find that the CLI is a significant determinant of sovereign CDS spreads. Our results suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the CLI is associated with an increase in sovereign CDS spreads by 24 basis points for advanced economies and 75 basis points for emerging markets on average.

Quantification of gammaH2AX foci in response to ionising radiation

DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs), which are induced by either endogenous metabolic processes or by exogenous sources, are one of the most critical DNA lesions with respect to survival and preservation of genomic integrity. An early response to the induction of DSBs is phosphorylation of the H2A histone variant, H2AX, at the serine-139 residue, in the highly conserved C-terminal SQEY motif, forming gammaH2AX(1). Following induction of DSBs, H2AX is rapidly phosphorylated by the phosphatidyl-inosito 3-kinase (PIKK) family of proteins, ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM), DNA-protein kinase catalytic subunit and ATM and RAD3-related (ATR)(2). Typically, only a few base-pairs (bp) are implicated in a DSB, however, there is significant signal amplification, given the importance of chromatin modifications in DNA damage signalling and repair. Phosphorylation of H2AX mediated predominantly by ATM spreads to adjacent areas of chromatin, affecting approximately 0.03% of total cellular H2AX per DSB(2,3). This corresponds to phosphorylation of approximately 2000 H2AX molecules spanning approximately 2 Mbp regions of chromatin surrounding the site of the DSB and results in the formation of discrete gammaH2AX foci which can be easily visualized and quantitated by immunofluorescence microscopy(2). The loss of gammaH2AX at DSB reflects repair, however, there is some controversy as to what defines complete repair of DSBs; it has been proposed that rejoining of both strands of DNA is adequate however, it has also been suggested that re-instatement of the original chromatin state of compaction is necessary(4-8). The disappearence of gammaH2AX involves at least in part, dephosphorylation by phosphatases, phosphatase 2A and phosphatase 4C(5,6). Further, removal of gammaH2AX by redistribution involving histone exchange with H2A.Z has been implicated(7,8). Importantly, the quantitative analysis of gammaH2AX foci has led to a wide range of applications in medical and nuclear research. Here, we demonstrate the most commonly used immunofluorescence method for evaluation of initial DNA damage by detection and quantitation of gammaH2AX foci in gamma-irradiated adherent human keratinocytes(9)

Evaluation of the spatial distribution of γH2AX following ionizing radiation

An early molecular response to DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) is phosphorylation of the Ser-139 residue within the terminal SQEY motif of the histone H2AX1,2. This phosphorylation of H2AX is mediated by the phosphatidyl-inosito 3-kinase (PI3K) family of proteins, ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM), DNA-protein kinase catalytic subunit and ATM and RAD3-related (ATR)3. The phosphorylated form of H2AX, referred to as γH2AX, spreads to adjacent regions of chromatin from the site of the DSB, forming discrete foci, which are easily visualized by immunofluorecence microscopy3. Analysis and quantitation of γH2AX foci has been widely used to evaluate DSB formation and repair, particularly in response to ionizing radiation and for evaluating the efficacy of various radiation modifying compounds and cytotoxic compounds Given the exquisite specificity and sensitivity of this de novo marker of DSBs, it has provided new insights into the processes of DNA damage and repair in the context of chromatin. For example, in radiation biology the central paradigm is that the nuclear DNA is the critical target with respect to radiation sensitivity. Indeed, the general consensus in the field has largely been to view chromatin as a homogeneous template for DNA damage and repair. However, with the use of γH2AX as molecular marker of DSBs, a disparity in γ-irradiation-induced γH2AX foci formation in euchromatin and heterochromatin has been observed5-7. Recently, we used a panel of antibodies to either mono-, di- or tri- methylated histone H3 at lysine 9 (H3K9me1, H3K9me2, H3K9me3) which are epigenetic imprints of constitutive heterochromatin and transcriptional silencing and lysine 4 (H3K4me1, H3K4me2, H3K4me3), which are tightly correlated actively transcribing euchromatic regions, to investigate the spatial distribution of γH2AX following ionizing radiation8. In accordance with the prevailing ideas regarding chromatin biology, our findings indicated a close correlation between γH2AX formation and active transcription9. Here we demonstrate our immunofluorescence method for detection and quantitation of γH2AX foci in non-adherent cells, with a particular focus on co-localization with other epigenetic markers, image analysis and 3Dmodeling.

Top-down influences on lexical selection during spoken word production: A 4T fMRI investigation of refractory effects in picture naming

Spoken word production is assumed to involve stages of processing in which activation spreads through layers of units comprising lexical-conceptual knowledge and their corresponding phonological word forms. Using high-field (4T) functional magnetic resonance imagine (fMRI), we assessed whether the relationship between these stages is strictly serial or involves cascaded-interactive processing, and whether central (decision/control) processing mechanisms are involved in lexical selection. Participants performed the competitor priming paradigm in which distractor words, named from a definition and semantically related to a subsequently presented target picture, slow picture-naming latency compared to that with unrelated words. The paradigm intersperses two trials between the definition and the picture to be named, temporally separating activation in the word perception and production networks. Priming semantic competitors of target picture names significantly increased activation in the left posterior temporal cortex, and to a lesser extent the left middle temporal cortex, consistent with the predictions of cascaded-interactive models of lexical access. In addition, extensive activation was detected in the anterior cingulate and pars orbitalis of the inferior frontal gyrus. The findings indicate that lexical selection during competitor priming is biased by top-down mechanisms to reverse associations between primed distractor words and target pictures to select words that meet the current goal of speech.

Cavitation erosion characteristics of poly(methyl methacrylate) in a rotating disk device

Experimental results pertaining to the initiation, dynamics and mechanism of cavitation erosion on poly(methyl methacrylate) specimens tested in a rotating disk device are described in detail. Erosion normally starts at the location nearest to the center of rotation (CR). As the exposure time to cavitation increases, additional erosion areas or sites appear away from the CR and secondary erosion (induced by eroded pits) spreads upstream and merges with the main pit. The microcracks increase in density towards the end of the incubation period and transform into macrocracks in most cases. A study of light optical photographs and scanning electron micrographs of the eroded area shows that material particles are removed from the network of cracks because of crack joining and pits indicate particle debris. Optical degradation (loss of transmittance) is observed to be greater on the back of the specimen than on the front.

Mango anthracnose disease: Present status and future research priorities

Occurrence and Importance: Anthracnose is presently recognized as the most important field and post-harvest disease of mango worldwide (Ploetz and Prakasli, 1997). It is the major disease limiting fruit production in all countries where mangoes are grown, especially where high humidity prevails during the cropping season. The post-harvest phase is the most damaging and economically significant phase of the disease worldwide. It directly affects the marketable fruit rendering it worthless. This phase is directly linked to the field phase where initial infection usually starts on young twigs and leaves and spreads to the flowers, causing blossom blight and destroying the inflorescences and even preventing fruit set.

A simulation study of the mixing, atomic flow and velocity profiles of crystalline materials during sliding

Self-contained Non-Equilibrium Molecular Dynamics (NEMD) simulations using Lennard-Jones potentials were performed to identify the origin and mechanisms of atomic scale interfacial behavior between sliding metals. The mixing sequence and velocity profiles were compared via MD simulations for three cases, viz.: sell-mated, similar and hard-softvcrystal pairs. The results showed shear instability, atomic scale mixing, and generation of eddies at the sliding interface. Vorticity at the interface suggests that atomic flow during sliding is similar to fluid flow under Kelvin-Helmholtz instability and this is supported by velocity profiles from the simulations. The initial step-function velocity profile spreads during sliding. However the velocity profile does not change much at later stages of the simulation and it eventually stops spreading. The steady state friction coefficient during simulation was monitored as a function of sliding velocity. Frictional behavior can be explained on the basis of plastic deformation and adiabatic effects. The mixing layer growth kinetics was also investigated.

Adaptation and management of Australian buffalograss cultivars for shade and water conservation

Soft-leaf buffalo grass is increasing in popularity as an amenity turfgrass in Australia. This project was instigated to assess the adaptation of and establish management guidelines for its use in Australias vast array of growing environments. There is an extensive selection of soft-leaf buffalo grass cultivars throughout Australia and with the countrys changing climates from temperate in the south to tropical in the north not all cultivars are going to be adapted to all regions. The project evaluated 19 buffalo grass cultivars along with other warm-season grasses including green couch, kikuyu and sweet smother grass. The soft-leaf buffalo grasses were evaluated for their growth and adaptation in a number of regions throughout Australia including Western Australia, Victoria, ACT, NSW and Queensland. The growth habit of the individual cultivars was examined along with their level of shade tolerance, water use, herbicide tolerance, resistance to wear, response to nitrogen applications and growth potential in highly alkaline (pH) soils. The growth habit of the various cultivars currently commercially available in Australia differs considerably from the more robust type that spreads quicker and is thicker in appearance (Sir Walter, Kings Pride, Ned Kelly and Jabiru) to the dwarf types that are shorter and thinner in appearance (AusTine and AusDwarf). Soft-leaf buffalo grass types tested do not differ in water use when compared to old-style common buffalo grass. Thus, soft-leaf buffalo grasses, like other warm-season turfgrass species, are efficient in water use. These grasses also recover after periods of low water availability. Individual cultivar differences were not discernible. In high pH soils (i.e. on alkaline-side) some elements essential for plant growth (e.g. iron and manganese) may be deficient causing turfgrass to appear pale green, and visually unacceptable. When 14 soft-leaf buffalo grass genotypes were grown on a highly alkaline soil (pH 7.5-7.9), cultivars differed in leaf iron, but not in leaf manganese, concentrations. Nitrogen is critical to the production of quality turf. The methods for applying this essential element can be manipulated to minimise the maintenance inputs (mowing) during the peak growing period (summer). By applying the greatest proportion of the turfs total nitrogen requirements in early spring, peak summer growth can be reduced resulting in a corresponding reduction in mowing requirements. Soft-leaf buffalo grass cultivars are more shade and wear tolerant than other warm-season turfgrasses being used by homeowners. There are differences between the individual buffalo grass varieties however. The majority of types currently available would be classified as having moderate levels of shade tolerance and wear reasonably well with good recovery rates. The impact of wear in a shaded environment was not tested and there is a need to investigate this as this is a typical growing environment for many homeowners. The use of herbicides is required to maintain quality soft-leaf buffalo grass turf. The development of softer herbicides for other turfgrasses has seen an increase in their popularity. The buffalo grass cultivars currently available have shown varying levels of susceptibility to the chemicals tested. The majority of the cultivars evaluated have demonstrated low levels of phytotoxicity to the herbicides chlorsulfuron (Glean) and fluroxypyr (Starane and Comet). In general, soft leaf buffalo grasses are varied in their makeup and have demonstrated varying levels of tolerance/susceptibility/adaptation to the conditions they are grown under. Consequently, there is a need to choose the cultivar most suited to the environment it is expected to perform in and the management style it will be exposed to. Future work is required to assess how the structure of the different cultivars impacts on their capacity to tolerate wear, varying shade levels, water use and herbicide tolerance. The development of a growth model may provide the solution.

Skin damage to two new mango cultivars during irradiation and cold storage.

Mangoes can express several skin disorders following important postharvest treatments. Responses are often cultivar specific. This paper reports the responses of two new Australian mango cultivars to some of these treatments. 'Honey Gold' mango develops "under skin browning" early during cold storage. This is thought to be partly caused by a discolouration of the latex vessels which then spreads to the surrounding cells. The symptoms appear to be worse in fruit from hotter production areas and that have been cooled to temperatures below 18C soon after harvest. Current commercial recommendations are to cool fruit to 18C, which limits postharvest handling options. Recent trials have confirmed that delayed or slowed cooling after harvest can reduce under skin browning. The defect may also be associated with physical injury to the skin during harvesting and packing. Irradiation is potentially an important disinfestation treatment for fruit fly in Australian mangoes. The 'B74' mango cultivar develops significant skin damage following irradiation, mainly due to discolouration of the cells surrounding the lenticels. Recent results confirmed that fruit harvested directly from the tree into trays without exposure to water or postharvest chemicals are not damaged by irradiation, while commercially harvested and packed fruit are damaged. Several major harvest and postharvest steps appear to increase lenticel sensitivity to irradiation. Further work is required to develop commercially acceptable protocols to facilitate 'Honey Gold' and 'B74' mango distribution and marketing.