Coastal upwelling drives intertidal assemblage structure and trophic ecology

ecosystems. Coastal oceanic upwelling, for example, has been associated with elevatedbiomass and abundance patterns of certain functional groups, e.g., corticated macroalgae.In the upwelling system of Northern Chile, we examined measures of intertidal macrobenthiccomposition, structure and trophic ecology across eighteen shores varying in theirproximity to two coastal upwelling centres, in a hierarchical sampling design (spatial scalesof >1 and >10 km). The influence of coastal upwelling on intertidal communities was confirmedby the stable isotope values (δ13C and δ15N) of consumers, including a dominantsuspension feeder, grazers, and their putative resources of POM, epilithic biofilm, andmacroalgae. We highlight the utility of muscle δ15N from the suspension feeding mussel,Perumytilus purpuratus, as a proxy for upwelling, supported by satellite data and previousstudies. Where possible, we used corrections for broader-scale trends, spatial autocorrelation,ontogenetic dietary shifts and spatial baseline isotopic variation prior to analysis. Ourresults showed macroalgal assemblage composition, and benthic consumer assemblagestructure, varied significantly with the intertidal influence of coastal upwelling, especiallycontrasting bays and coastal headlands. Coastal topography also separated differences inconsumer resource use. This suggested that coastal upwelling, itself driven by coastlinetopography, influences intertidal communities by advecting nearshore phytoplankton populationsoffshore and cooling coastal water temperatures. We recommend the isotopic valuesof benthic organisms, specifically long-lived suspension feeders, as in situ alternativesto offshore measurements of upwelling influence

De lo micro a lo macro prudencial: Un análisis de la supervisión bancaria desde la econometría espacial

La crisis que se desató en el mercado hipotecario en Estados Unidos en 2008 y que logró propagarse a lo largo de todo sistema financiero, dejó en evidencia el nivel de interconexión que actualmente existe entre las entidades del sector y sus relaciones con el sector productivo, dejando en evidencia la necesidad de identificar y caracterizar el riesgo sistémico inherente al sistema, para que de esta forma las entidades reguladoras busquen una estabilidad tanto individual, como del sistema en general. El presente documento muestra, a través de un modelo que combina el poder informativo de las redes y su adecuación a un modelo espacial auto regresivo (tipo panel), la importancia de incorporar al enfoque micro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea II), una variable que capture el efecto de estar conectado con otras entidades, realizando así un análisis macro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea III).

Network externalities across financial institutions

We propose and estimate a financial distress model that explicitly accounts for the interactions or spill-over effects between financial institutions, through the use of a spatial continuity matrix that is build from financial network data of inter bank transactions. Such setup of the financial distress model allows for the empirical validation of the importance of network externalities in determining financial distress, in addition to institution specific and macroeconomic covariates. The relevance of such specification is that it incorporates simultaneously micro-prudential factors (Basel 2) as well as macro-prudential and systemic factors (Basel 3) as determinants of financial distress. Results indicate network externalities are an important determinant of financial health of a financial institutions. The parameter that measures the effect of network externalities is both economically and statistical significant and its inclusion as a risk factor reduces the importance of the firm specific variables such as the size or degree of leverage of the financial institution. In addition we analyze the policy implications of the network factor model for capital requirements and deposit insurance pricing.

Calibrating flood inundation models: identifying and addressing uncertainty in satellite observed flood extents

Improvements in the resolution of satellite imagery have enabled extraction of water surface elevations at the margins of the flood. Comparison between modelled and observed water surface elevations provides a new means for calibrating and validating flood inundation models, however the uncertainty in this observed data has yet to be addressed. Here a flood inundation model is calibrated using a probabilistic treatment of the observed data. A LiDAR guided snake algorithm is used to determine an outline of a flood event in 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK, using a 12.5m ERS-1 image. Points at approximately 100m intervals along this outline are selected, and the water surface elevation recorded as the LiDAR DEM elevation at each point. With a planar water surface from the gauged upstream to downstream water elevations as an approximation, the water surface elevations at points along this flooded extent are compared to their ‘expected’ value. The pattern of errors between the two show a roughly normal distribution, however when plotted against coordinates there is obvious spatial autocorrelation. The source of this spatial dependency is investigated by comparing errors to the slope gradient and aspect of the LiDAR DEM. A LISFLOOD-FP model of the flood event is set-up to investigate the effect of observed data uncertainty on the calibration of flood inundation models. Multiple simulations are run using different combinations of friction parameters, from which the optimum parameter set will be selected. For each simulation a T-test is used to quantify the fit between modelled and observed water surface elevations. The points chosen for use in this T-test are selected based on their error. The criteria for selection enables evaluation of the sensitivity of the choice of optimum parameter set to uncertainty in the observed data. This work explores the observed data in detail and highlights possible causes of error. The identification of significant error (RMSE = 0.8m) between approximate expected and actual observed elevations from the remotely sensed data emphasises the limitations of using this data in a deterministic manner within the calibration process. These limitations are addressed by developing a new probabilistic approach to using the observed data.

Bergmann's rule and body size in mammals

Aim: To describe the geographical pattern of mean body size of the non-volant mammals of the Nearctic and Neotropics and evaluate the influence of five environmental variables that are likely to affect body size gradients. Location: The Western Hemisphere. Methods: We calculated mean body size (average log mass) values in 110 × 110 km cells covering the continental Nearctic and Neotropics. We also generated cell averages for mean annual temperature, range in elevation, their interaction, actual evapotranspiration, and the global vegetation index and its coefficient of variation. Associations between mean body size and environmental variables were tested with simple correlations and ordinary least squares multiple regression, complemented with spatial autocorrelation analyses and split-line regression. We evaluated the relative support for each multiple-regression model using AIC. Results: Mean body size increases to the north in the Nearctic and is negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, across the Neotropics mammals are largest in the tropical and subtropical lowlands and smaller in the Andes, generating a positive correlation with temperature. Finally, body size and temperature are nonlinearly related in both regions, and split-line linear regression found temperature thresholds marking clear shifts in these relationships (Nearctic 10.9 °C; Neotropics 12.6 °C). The increase in body sizes with decreasing temperature is strongest in the northern Nearctic, whereas a decrease in body size in mountains dominates the body size gradients in the warmer parts of both regions. Main conclusions: We confirm previous work finding strong broad-scale Bergmann trends in cold macroclimates but not in warmer areas. For the latter regions (i.e. the southern Nearctic and the Neotropics), our analyses also suggest that both local and broad-scale patterns of mammal body size variation are influenced in part by the strong mesoscale climatic gradients existing in mountainous areas. A likely explanation is that reduced habitat sizes in mountains limit the presence of larger-sized mammals.

Automatic near real-time selection of flood water levels from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images for assimilation into hydraulic models: a case study

Flood extents caused by fluvial floods in urban and rural areas may be predicted by hydraulic models. Assimilation may be used to correct the model state and improve the estimates of the model parameters or external forcing. One common observation assimilated is the water level at various points along the modelled reach. Distributed water levels may be estimated indirectly along the flood extents in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images by intersecting the extents with the floodplain topography. It is necessary to select a subset of levels for assimilation because adjacent levels along the flood extent will be strongly correlated. A method for selecting such a subset automatically and in near real-time is described, which would allow the SAR water levels to be used in a forecasting model. The method first selects candidate waterline points in flooded rural areas having low slope. The waterline levels and positions are corrected for the effects of double reflections between the water surface and emergent vegetation at the flood edge. Waterline points are also selected in flooded urban areas away from radar shadow and layover caused by buildings, with levels similar to those in adjacent rural areas. The resulting points are thinned to reduce spatial autocorrelation using a top-down clustering approach. The method was developed using a TerraSAR-X image from a particular case study involving urban and rural flooding. The waterline points extracted proved to be spatially uncorrelated, with levels reasonably similar to those determined manually from aerial photographs, and in good agreement with those of nearby gauges.

Agriculture and the life histories of Mauritius kestrels

Habitat modification for agriculture is one of the greatest current threats to global biodiversity. Studies show large-scale population declines and short-term demographic impacts, but knowledge of the long-term effects of agriculture on individuals remains poor. This thesis examines the short- and long-term impact of agriculture on a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest-dwelling raptor endemic to the island of Mauritius, that also utilises agricultural habitats. This population is a particularly appropriate model system, because complete life history data exists for individuals over a 22-year period, alongside detailed habitat and climate data. Agriculture has a short-term detrimental effect on Mauritius kestrel breeding success by exacerbating the seasonal decline in fledgling production. This is partly driven by the habitat-specific composition of the prey community that kestrels exploit to feed their chicks. The fledglings from agricultural territories tend to recruit in agricultural territories. This is largely due to poor natal dispersal and fine-scale spatial autocorrelation in the habitat matrix. Breeders do not respond to agriculture in the breeding territory by dispersing, unless the pair bond is broken. Therefore, individuals originating in agricultural territories tend to recruit, and remain in, agricultural territories throughout their lives. In addition to this, females from agricultural natal territories have shorter lifespans, schedule their peak reproductive output earlier in life, and exhibit more rapid senescence than non-agricultural females. The combination of this long-term effect and the adult experience of agriculture imposed by life history and environmental constraints, leads to a lower mean lifetime reproductive rate compared to females originating in non-agricultural habitats. These results demonstrate that agriculture experienced in early life has a lifelong effect on individuals. The effects can persist in time and space, with potentially delayed effects on population dynamics. These findings are important for understanding species’ responses to agricultural expansion.

Location, location, location? Analysing property rents in medieval Gloucester

Although medieval rentals have been extensively studied, few scholars have used them to analyse variations in the rents paid on individual properties within a town. It has been claimed that medieval rents did not reflect economic values or market forces, but were set according to social and political rather than economic criteria, and remained ossified at customary levels. This paper uses hedonic regression methods to test whether property rents in medieval Gloucester were influenced by classic economic factors such as the location and use of a property. It investigates both rents and local rates (landgavel), and explores the relationship between the two. It also examines spatial autocorrelation. It finds significant relationships between urban rents and property characteristics that are similar to those found in modern studies. The findings are consistent with the view that, in Gloucester at least, medieval rents were strongly influenced by classical economic factors working through a competitive urban property market.

Untangling associations between chironomid taxa in Neotropical streams using local and landscape filters

1. Analyses of species association have major implications for selecting indicators for freshwater biomonitoring and conservation, because they allow for the elimination of redundant information and focus on taxa that can be easily handled and identified. These analyses are particularly relevant in the debate about using speciose groups (such as the Chironomidae) as indicators in the tropics, because they require difficult and time-consuming analysis, and their responses to environmental gradients, including anthropogenic stressors, are poorly known. 2. Our objective was to show whether chironomid assemblages in Neotropical streams include clear associations of taxa and, if so, how well these associations could be explained by a set of models containing information from different spatial scales. For this, we formulated a priori models that allowed for the influence of local, landscape and spatial factors on chironomid taxon associations (CTA). These models represented biological hypotheses capable of explaining associations between chironomid taxa. For instance, CTA could be best explained by local variables (e.g. pH, conductivity and water temperature) or by processes acting at wider landscape scales (e.g. percentage of forest cover). 3. Biological data were taken from 61 streams in Southeastern Brazil, 47 of which were in well-preserved regions, and 14 of which drained areas severely affected by anthropogenic activities. We adopted a model selection procedure using Akaike`s information criterion to determine the most parsimonious models for explaining CTA. 4. Applying Kendall`s coefficient of concordance, seven genera (Tanytarsus/Caladomyia, Ablabesmyia, Parametriocnemus, Pentaneura, Nanocladius, Polypedilum and Rheotanytarsus) were identified as associated taxa. The best-supported model explained 42.6% of the total variance in the abundance of associated taxa. This model combined local and landscape environmental filters and spatial variables (which were derived from eigenfunction analysis). However, the model with local filters and spatial variables also had a good chance of being selected as the best model. 5. Standardised partial regression coefficients of local and landscape filters, including spatial variables, derived from model averaging allowed an estimation of which variables were best correlated with the abundance of associated taxa. In general, the abundance of the associated genera tended to be lower in streams characterised by a high percentage of forest cover (landscape scale), lower proportion of muddy substrata and high values of pH and conductivity (local scale). 6. Overall, our main result adds to the increasing number of studies that have indicated the importance of local and landscape variables, as well as the spatial relationships among sampling sites, for explaining aquatic insect community patterns in streams. Furthermore, our findings open new possibilities for the elimination of redundant data in the assessment of anthropogenic impacts on tropical streams.

Kriminalitetens geografi : vardagsbrottslighetens spatiala fördelning i Borlänge

The aim of this thesis is to describe and analyze the geographical distribution of everyday criminality in the town of Borlänge during the year 2002 and to analyze which measures to be taken in the physical social planning to decrease this everyday criminality there. The term everyday criminality is here to be understood as those categories of crime that appear most frequently in the records of reports to the police every year. Here two kinds of crime have been in focus, thefts from cars and office burglary.In fulfilling this aim two main questions have been answered. The first one is how the everyday criminality was distributed geographically in the town of Borlänge during the year 2002. The second one is which measures to be taken in the physical social planning to decrease this everyday criminality in the town of Borlänge.In order to answer the first question a spatial autocorrelation analysis, Local Moran LISA has been used. This method is based on the measurement Moran´s I and shows the spatial autocorrelation for every single location. To answer the second question three different theories of crime prevention through environmental design have been studied and applied in the analysis. These are Jane Jacobs’ ideas about ”the living city”, Oscar Newman´s ideas about ”defensible space” and Ronald V. Clarke´s theories about crime prevention.The major conclusions that can be drawn from this thesis are that the risk of being exposed to thefts from cars, during the analyzed time period, was highest in Centrum and Hagalund and their surroundings. The lowest risk of being exposed to this type of crime was found in Domnarvet and Islingby, during the year 2002. The highest risk of being a victim of the crime office burglary was found in Hagalund and its surroundings and in the single area of Kvarnsveden. The corresponding lowest risk was found in Lergärdet and its surroundings and in Norra Backa and Kupolen. The measures that should be taken in order to decrease these types of criminality can be divided into overall changes and place-specific changes. When it comes to the crime thefts from cars a more attractive central business district, a better view of parking lots from nearby buildings, dividing of larger parking lot zones into smaller ones, migration of hidden parking lots and stronger access control to parking lots where problems with this kind of crime have occurred have been suggested as overall changes. The corresponding place-specific changes are to remove vegetation that is blocking the view, better lighting and to put up signs with information about increased risk of exposure to crime at parking lots with the most problems. To decrease the amount of office burglaries overall changes as to create a better view of the area from nearby surroundings, move bigger office compartments or divide them into smaller units, rebuild characteristic buildings and increase security by strengthening the access control to offices with these kinds of problems could be useful. Finally there are possibilities to decrease office burglary by using place-specific measures as surveillance cameras combined with signs containing information about these, high fences and better lighting around the buildings where a higher risk of being exposed to this kind of criminality is present.

Autocorrelação espacial na distribuição de área de loja de supermercados em municípios do estado de São Paulo

Cerca de 90% da variabilidade da densidade de m2 de loja de supermercados nas microrregiões do estado de São Paulo pode ser explicada pela densidade de renda ali existente, desde que a autocorrelação espacial presente nas duas variáveis seja levada em consideração. Neste trabalho, apresenta-se o conceito de autocorrelação espacial, sugere-se uma medida para a sua intensidade (Índice de Geary), e estuda-se uma estratégia para sua remoção.

Accountability and yardstick competition in the public provision of education

This paper explores the institutional change introduced by the public disclosure of an education development index (IDEB, Basic Education Development Index) in 2007 to identify the e ect of education accountability on yardstick competition in education spending for Brazilian municipalities. Our results are threefold. First, political incentives are pervasive in setting the education expenditures. The spatial strategic behavior on education spending is estimated lower for lame-ducks and for those incumbents with majority support at the city council. This suggests a strong relation between commitment and accountability which reinforces yardstick competition theory. Second, we nd a minor reduction (20%) in spatial interaction for public education spending after IDEB's disclosure | compared to the spatial correlation before the disclosure of the index. This suggests that public release of information may decrease the importance of the neighbors` counterpart information on voter`s decision. Third, exploring the discontinuity of IDEB`s disclosure rule around the cut-o of 30 students enrolled in the grade under assessment, our estimates suggest that the spatial autocorrelation | and hence yardstick competition | is reduced in 54%. Finally, an unforeseen result suggests that the disclosure of IDEB increases expenditures, more than 100% according to our estimates.

Análise da precificação de imóveis na cidade do Rio de Janeiro utilizando Modelagem Hedônica e os efeitos da autocorrelação espacial

A escolha da cidade do Rio de Janeiro como sede de grandes eventos esportivos mundiais, a Copa do Mundo de Futebol de 2014 e os Jogos Olímpicos de 2016, colocou-a no centro de investimentos em infraestrutura, mobilidade urbana e segurança pública, com consequente impacto no mercado imobiliário, tanto de novos lançamentos de empreendimentos, quanto na revenda de imóveis usados. Acredita-se que o preço de um imóvel dependa de uma relação entre suas características estruturais como quantidade de quartos, suítes, vagas de garagem, presença de varanda, tal como sua localização, proximidade com centros de trabalho, entretenimento e áreas valorizadas ou degradadas. Uma das técnicas para avaliar a contribuição dessas características para a formação do preço do imóvel, conhecido na Econométrica como Modelagem Hedônica de Preços, é uma aplicação de regressão linear multivariada onde a variável dependente é o preço e as variáveis independentes, as respectivas características que deseja-se modelar. A utilização da regressão linear implica em observar premissas que devem ser atendidas para a confiabilidade dos resultados a serem analisados, tais como independência e homoscedasticidade dos resíduos e não colinearidade entre as variáveis independentes. O presente trabalho objetiva aplicar a modelagem hedônica de preços para imóveis localizados na cidade do Rio de Janeiro em um modelo de regressão linear multivariada, em conjunto com outras fontes de dados para a construção de variáveis de acessibilidade e socioambiental a fim de verificar a relação de importância entre elas para a formação do preço e, em particular, exploramos brevemente a tendência de preços em função da distância a favelas. Em atenção aos pré-requisitos observados para a aplicação de regressão linear, verificamos que a premissa de independência dos preços não pode ser atestada devido a constatação da autocorrelação espacial entre os imóveis, onde não apenas as características estruturais e de acessibilidade são levadas em consideração para a precificação do bem, mas principalmente a influência mútua que os imóveis vizinhos exercem um ao outro.

Desigualdade regional da mortalidade neonatal no Brasil

In Brazil, despite the decline in infant mortality in recent decades it still has high rates going against recommended by WHO. Being the largest percentage of infant mortality rate composed of neonatal deaths. Objective: A study was conducted to analyze the spatial distribution of neonatal mortality and its correlation with the biological, socioeconomic and maternal and child health care in the Brazilian states in the period from 2006 to 2010. Method: The study made thematic maps and correlation (LISA) for verification of spatial dependence and multiple linear regression models. Results: Was found that there is no spatial autocorrelation for neonatal mortality in the Brazilian states (R = 0.002, p = 0.48). Most of variables were correlated (r> 0.3, p <0.05) with neonatal mortality, forming clusters in the North and Northeast, with the highest rates of teenage mothers, low household income per capita, lower prenatal appointments and beds of Neonatal Intensive Care Unit. The number of Neonatal UCI beds remained independent effect after regression analysis. Conclusion: The study concludes that regional inequalities in living conditions and especially the access to maternal and child health services contribute to the unequal distribution of neonatal mortality in Brazil

Estrutura genética intrapopulacional em Cryptocarya moschata Nees (Lauraceae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)