Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.

Sparse spectral analysis of atrial fibrillation electrograms

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common heart disorder. One of the most prominent hypothesis about its initiation and maintenance considers multiple uncoordinated activation foci inside the atrium. However, the implicit assumption behind all the signal processing techniques used for AF, such as dominant frequency and organization analysis, is the existence of a single regular component in the observed signals. In this paper we take into account the existence of multiple foci, performing a spectral analysis to detect their number and frequencies. In order to obtain a cleaner signal on which the spectral analysis can be performed, we introduce sparsity-aware learning techniques to infer the spike trains corresponding to the activations. The good performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated both on synthetic and real data. RESUMEN. Algoritmo basado en técnicas de regresión dispersa para la extracción de las señales cardiacas en pacientes con fibrilación atrial (AF).

Factor analysis for metal grade exploration at Pallancata Vein in Peru

Se investiga la distribución espacial de contenidos metálicos analizados sobre testigos de sondeos obtenidos en las campañas de exploración de la Veta Pallancata. Se aplica el análisis factorial a dicha distribución y a los cocientes de los valores metálicos, discriminando los que están correlacionados con la mineralización argentífera y que sirven como guías de exploración para hallar zonas de potenciales reservas por sus gradientes de variación.Abstract:The metal distribution in a vein may show the paths of hydrothermal fluid flow at the time of mineralization. Such information may assist for in-fill drilling. The Pallancata Vein has been intersected by 52 drill holes, whose cores were sampled and analysed, and the results plotted to examine the mineralisation trends. The spatial distribution of the ore is observed from the logAg/logPb ratio distribution. Au is in this case closely related to Ag (electrum and uytenbogaardtite, Ag3AuS2 ). The Au grade shows the same spatial distribution as the Ag grade. The logAg/logPb ratio distribution also suggests possible ore to be expected at deeper locations. Shallow supergene Ag enrichment was also observed.

Statistical analysis of the goodness of classical factor analysis regression (CFAR) /

Cover title.

An investigation of the goodness of fit of the maximum likelihood estimation procedure in factor analysis /

Thesis--Illinois.