An impulsive differential equation model for Marek's disease

Many dynamical processes are subject to abrupt changes in state. Often these perturbations can be periodic and of short duration relative to the evolving process. These types of phenomena are described well by what are referred to as impulsive differential equations, systems of differential equations coupled with discrete mappings in state space. In this thesis we employ impulsive differential equations to model disease transmission within an industrial livestock barn. In particular we focus on the poultry industry and a viral disease of poultry called Marek's disease. This system lends itself well to impulsive differential equations. Entire cohorts of poultry are introduced and removed from a barn concurrently. Additionally, Marek's disease is transmitted indirectly and the viral particles can survive outside the host for weeks. Therefore, depopulating, cleaning, and restocking of the barn are integral factors in modelling disease transmission and can be completely captured by the impulsive component of the model. Our model allows us to investigate how modern broiler farm practices can make disease elimination difficult or impossible to achieve. It also enables us to investigate factors that may contribute to virulence evolution. Our model suggests that by decrease the cohort duration or by decreasing the flock density, Marek's disease can be eliminated from a barn with no increase in cleaning effort. Unfortunately our model also suggests that these practices will lead to disease evolution towards greater virulence. Additionally, our model suggests that if intensive cleaning between cohorts does not rid the barn of disease, it may drive evolution and cause the disease to become more virulent.

A posteriori error estimation for discontinuous Galerkin discretizations of H(curl)-elliptic partial differential equations

We develop the a posteriori error estimation of interior penalty discontinuous Galerkin discretizations for H(curl)-elliptic problems that arise in eddy current models. Computable upper and lower bounds on the error measured in terms of a natural (mesh-dependent) energy norm are derived. The proposed a posteriori error estimator is validated by numerical experiments, illustrating its reliability and efficiency for a range of test problems.

Xmds: eXtensible multi-dimensional simulator

A software package that efficiently solves a comprehensive range of problems based on coupled complex nonlinear stochastic ODEs and PDEs is outlined. Its input and output syntax is formulated as a subset of XML, thus making a step towards a standard for specifying numerical simulations.

A compartmental model of hepatic disposition kinetics: 1. Model development and application to linear kinetics

The conventional convection-dispersion model is widely used to interrelate hepatic availability (F) and clearance (Cl) with the morphology and physiology of the liver and to predict effects such as changes in liver blood flow on F and Cl. The extension of this model to include nonlinear kinetics and zonal heterogeneity of the liver is not straightforward and requires numerical solution of partial differential equation, which is not available in standard nonlinear regression analysis software. In this paper, we describe an alternative compartmental model representation of hepatic disposition (including elimination). The model allows the use of standard software for data analysis and accurately describes the outflow concentration-time profile for a vascular marker after bolus injection into the liver. In an evaluation of a number of different compartmental models, the most accurate model required eight vascular compartments, two of them with back mixing. In addition, the model includes two adjacent secondary vascular compartments to describe the tail section of the concentration-time profile for a reference marker. The model has the added flexibility of being easy to modify to model various enzyme distributions and nonlinear elimination. Model predictions of F, MTT, CV2, and concentration-time profile as well as parameter estimates for experimental data of an eliminated solute (palmitate) are comparable to those for the extended convection-dispersion model.

Robust model-order reduction of complex biological processes

This paper addresses robust model-order reduction of a high dimensional nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) model of a complex biological process. Based on a nonlinear, distributed parameter model of the same process which was validated against experimental data of an existing, pilot-scale BNR activated sludge plant, we developed a state-space model with 154 state variables in this work. A general algorithm for robustly reducing the nonlinear PDE model is presented and based on an investigation of five state-of-the-art model-order reduction techniques, we are able to reduce the original model to a model with only 30 states without incurring pronounced modelling errors. The Singular perturbation approximation balanced truncating technique is found to give the lowest modelling errors in low frequency ranges and hence is deemed most suitable for controller design and other real-time applications. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Well-posedness and invariant measures for HJM models with deterministic volatility and Lévy noise

We give sufficient conditions for existence, uniqueness and ergodicity of invariant measures for Musiela's stochastic partial differential equation with deterministic volatility and a Hilbert space valued driving Lévy noise. Conditions for the absence of arbitrage and for the existence of mild solutions are also discussed.

Characterizations of Lojasiewicz inequalities and applications

The classical Lojasiewicz inequality and its extensions for partial differential equation problems (Simon) and to o-minimal structures (Kurdyka) have a considerable impact on the analysis of gradient-like methods and related problems: minimization methods, complexity theory, asymptotic analysis of dissipative partial differential equations, tame geometry. This paper provides alternative characterizations of this type of inequalities for nonsmooth lower semicontinuous functions defined on a metric or a real Hilbert space. In a metric context, we show that a generalized form of the Lojasiewicz inequality (hereby called the Kurdyka- Lojasiewicz inequality) relates to metric regularity and to the Lipschitz continuity of the sublevel mapping, yielding applications to discrete methods (strong convergence of the proximal algorithm). In a Hilbert setting we further establish that asymptotic properties of the semiflow generated by -∂f are strongly linked to this inequality. This is done by introducing the notion of a piecewise subgradient curve: such curves have uniformly bounded lengths if and only if the Kurdyka- Lojasiewicz inequality is satisfied. Further characterizations in terms of talweg lines -a concept linked to the location of the less steepest points at the level sets of f- and integrability conditions are given. In the convex case these results are significantly reinforced, allowing in particular to establish the asymptotic equivalence of discrete gradient methods and continuous gradient curves. On the other hand, a counterexample of a convex C2 function in R2 is constructed to illustrate the fact that, contrary to our intuition, and unless a specific growth condition is satisfied, convex functions may fail to fulfill the Kurdyka- Lojasiewicz inequality.

A decision-making Fokker-Planck model in computational neuroscience

Minimal models for the explanation of decision-making in computational neuroscience are based on the analysis of the evolution for the average firing rates of two interacting neuron populations. While these models typically lead to multi-stable scenario for the basic derived dynamical systems, noise is an important feature of the model taking into account finite-size effects and robustness of the decisions. These stochastic dynamical systems can be analyzed by studying carefully their associated Fokker-Planck partial differential equation. In particular, we discuss the existence, positivity and uniqueness for the solution of the stationary equation, as well as for the time evolving problem. Moreover, we prove convergence of the solution to the the stationary state representing the probability distribution of finding the neuron families in each of the decision states characterized by their average firing rates. Finally, we propose a numerical scheme allowing for simulations performed on the Fokker-Planck equation which are in agreement with those obtained recently by a moment method applied to the stochastic differential system. Our approach leads to a more detailed analytical and numerical study of this decision-making model in computational neuroscience.

Option valuation as an expectation in the complex domain: The Black-Scholes case

It is very well known that the first succesful valuation of a stock option was done by solving a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) of the parabolic type with some complementary conditions specific for the option. In this approach, the randomness in the option value process is eliminated through a no-arbitrage argument. An alternative approach is to construct a replicating portfolio for the option. From this viewpoint the payoff function for the option is a random process which, under a new probabilistic measure, turns out to be of a special type, a martingale. Accordingly, the value of the replicating portfolio (equivalently, of the option) is calculated as an expectation, with respect to this new measure, of the discounted value of the payoff function. Since the expectation is, by definition, an integral, its calculation can be made simpler by resorting to powerful methods already available in the theory of analytic functions. In this paper we use precisely two of those techniques to find the well-known value of a European call

External Fluctuations in Front Propagation

We study the effects of external noise in a one-dimensional model of front propagation. Noise is introduced through the fluctuations of a control parameter leading to a multiplicative stochastic partial differential equation. Analytical and numerical results for the front shape and velocity are presented. The linear-marginal-stability theory is found to increase its range of validity in the presence of external noise. As a consequence noise can stabilize fronts not allowed by the deterministic equation.

Fuzzy logic applied to the modeling of water dynamics in an Oxisol in northeastern Brazil

Modeling of water movement in non-saturated soil usually requires a large number of parameters and variables, such as initial soil water content, saturated water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity, which can be assessed relatively easily. Dimensional flow of water in the soil is usually modeled by a nonlinear partial differential equation, known as the Richards equation. Since this equation cannot be solved analytically in certain cases, one way to approach its solution is by numerical algorithms. The success of numerical models in describing the dynamics of water in the soil is closely related to the accuracy with which the water-physical parameters are determined. That has been a big challenge in the use of numerical models because these parameters are generally difficult to determine since they present great spatial variability in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and use methods that properly incorporate the uncertainties inherent to water displacement in soils. In this paper, a model based on fuzzy logic is used as an alternative to describe water flow in the vadose zone. This fuzzy model was developed to simulate the displacement of water in a non-vegetated crop soil during the period called the emergency phase. The principle of this model consists of a Mamdani fuzzy rule-based system in which the rules are based on the moisture content of adjacent soil layers. The performances of the results modeled by the fuzzy system were evaluated by the evolution of moisture profiles over time as compared to those obtained in the field. The results obtained through use of the fuzzy model provided satisfactory reproduction of soil moisture profiles.

Option valuation as an expectation in the complex domain: The Black-Scholes case

It is very well known that the first succesful valuation of a stock option was done by solving a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) of the parabolic type with some complementary conditions specific for the option. In this approach, the randomness in the option value process is eliminated through a no-arbitrage argument. An alternative approach is to construct a replicating portfolio for the option. From this viewpoint the payoff function for the option is a random process which, under a new probabilistic measure, turns out to be of a special type, a martingale. Accordingly, the value of the replicating portfolio (equivalently, of the option) is calculated as an expectation, with respect to this new measure, of the discounted value of the payoff function. Since the expectation is, by definition, an integral, its calculation can be made simpler by resorting to powerful methods already available in the theory of analytic functions. In this paper we use precisely two of those techniques to find the well-known value of a European call

External Fluctuations in Front Propagation

We study the effects of external noise in a one-dimensional model of front propagation. Noise is introduced through the fluctuations of a control parameter leading to a multiplicative stochastic partial differential equation. Analytical and numerical results for the front shape and velocity are presented. The linear-marginal-stability theory is found to increase its range of validity in the presence of external noise. As a consequence noise can stabilize fronts not allowed by the deterministic equation.

A temperature predicting model for manufacturing processes requiring coiling

A model for predicting temperature evolution for automatic controling systems in manufacturing processes requiring the coiling of bars in the transfer table is presented. Although the method is of a general nature, the presentation in this work refers to the manufacturing of steel plates in hot rolling mills. The predicting strategy is based on a mathematical model of the evolution of temperature in a coiling and uncoiling bar and is presented in the form of a parabolic partial differential equation for a shape changing domain. The mathematical model is solved numerically by a space discretization via geometrically adaptive finite elements which accomodate the change in shape of the domain, using a computationally novel treatment of the resulting thermal contact problem due to coiling. Time is discretized according to a Crank-Nicolson scheme. Since the actual physical process takes less time than the time required by the process controlling computer to solve the full mathematical model, a special predictive device was developed, in the form of a set of least squares polynomials, based on the off-line numerical solution of the mathematical model.

Stochastic particle models: mean reversion and burgers dynamics. An application to commodity markets

The aim of this study is to propose a stochastic model for commodity markets linked with the Burgers equation from fluid dynamics. We construct a stochastic particles method for commodity markets, in which particles represent market participants. A discontinuity in the model is included through an interacting kernel equal to the Heaviside function and its link with the Burgers equation is given. The Burgers equation and the connection of this model with stochastic differential equations are also studied. Further, based on the law of large numbers, we prove the convergence, for large N, of a system of stochastic differential equations describing the evolution of the prices of N traders to a deterministic partial differential equation of Burgers type. Numerical experiments highlight the success of the new proposal in modeling some commodity markets, and this is confirmed by the ability of the model to reproduce price spikes when their effects occur in a sufficiently long period of time.