Civil-Military Relations in Croatia: Politicisation and Politics of Reform.

This article argues that since 2000 successive Croatian governments have shown themselves increasingly dedicated to reforming civil-military relations. However, their efforts have been hampered by four key obstacles. First, the need to implement defence reforms in the context of an unwieldy set of civil-military relationships, political and institutional rivalries, a lack of civil and military defence expertise and a continuing legacy of politicisation. Second, the need to cut defence spending as a proportion of the overall budget whilst taking on new military roles and improving the capability of the armed forces. Third, the need to balance the demands of the NATO accession process while implementing a balanced and fundamental reform of the armed forces as a whole. Finally, the need to implement root and branch personnel reforms and downsizing in the OSRH while simultaneously recruiting and retaining quality personnel and addressing the wider social issue of unemployment.

War crimes, conditionality and EU integration in the Western Balkans

The baleful legacy of the wars of the 1990s continues to dog the states and societies of the former Yugoslavia and has overshadowed the disappointingly slow and hesitant trajectory of the region towards the EU. At the start of the new millennium, with the removal of key wartime leaders from the political scene in both Croatia and Serbia, it was widely hoped that the region would prove able to ‘leave the past behind’ and rapidly move on to the hopeful new agenda of EU integration. The EU’s Copenhagen criteria, which in 1993 first explicitly set out the basic political conditions expected of aspirant EU Member States, proved effective in the case of the new democracies of Central and Eastern Europe in supporting the entrenchment of democratic norms and practices, and stimulating reconciliation and good neighbourly relations among countries with turbulent histories. Building on this experience, the Stabilisation and Association Process, launched for the countries of the Western Balkans in 1999, included both full cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and regional reconciliation among the political conditions set for advancing these countries on the path to EU integration. EU political conditionality was intended to support the efforts of new political leaders to redefine national goals away from the nationalist enmities of the past and focus firmly on forging a path to a better future. This Chaillot Paper examines the extent to which this strategy has worked, especially in the light of the difficulties it has encountered in the face of strong resistance to cooperation among sections of the former Yugoslav population, many of whom have not yet fully acknowledged the crimes committed during the 1990s. Key chapters in the volume raise the vital questions of leadership and political will. EU political conditionality does not work unless the EU has a partner ready and willing to ‘play the game’, which presupposes that EU integration has become the overriding priority on the national political agenda.

Lions and roses: An interpretive history of Israeli-Iranian relations

This multi-disciplinary research project explores the religious and cultural foundations within the "master commemorative narratives" that frame Israeli and Iranian political discourse. In articulating their grievances against one another, Israeli and Iranian leaders express the tensions between religion, nationalism, and modernity in their own societies. The theoretical and methodological approach of this dissertation is constructivist-interpretivist. The concept of "master commemorative narratives" is adapted from Yael Zerubavel's study of ritualized remembrance in Israeli political culture, and applied to both Israeli and Iranian foreign policy. Israel’s master commemorative narrative draws heavily upon the language of the Hebrew Bible, situating foreign policy discourse within a paradigm of covenantal patrimony, exile, and return, despite the unrelenting hostility of eternal enemies and "the nations." Iran’s master commemorative narrative expresses Iranian suspicion of foreign encroachment and interference, and of the internal corruption that they engender, sacralizing resistance to the forces of evil in the figurative language and myths of pre-Islamic tradition and of Shi'a Islam. Using a constructivist-interpretive methodological approach, this research offers a unique interpretive analysis of the parallels between these narratives, where they intersect, and where they come into conflict. It highlights both the broad appeal and the diverse challenges to the components of these "master" narratives within Israeli and Iranian politics and society. The conclusion of this study explains the ways in which the recognition of religious and cultural conflicts through the optic of master commemorative narratives can complement the perspectives of other theoretical approaches and challenge the conventions of Security Studies. It also suggests some of the potential practical applications of this research in devising more effective international diplomacy.

Different Wars Require Different Strategies: Separating the “War on Drugs” from the “War on Drug [Traffickers]”

Using the securitization framework to highlight the arguments that facilitated the “War on Drugs”, this paper highlights a separate war against drug traffickers. Facilitated by ideology through the rhetoric promoted by the “War on Drugs,” the fear of communist expansion and democratic contraction, the “War on Drug Traffickers” was implemented, requiring its own strategy separate from the “War on Drugs.” This is an important distinction because the play on words changes the perception of the issue from one of drug addiction to one of weak institutions and insurgent/terrorist threat to those institutions. Furthermore, one cannot propose strategy to win, lose, or retreat in a war that one has been unable to identify properly. And while the all-encompassing “War on Drugs” has motivated tremendous discourse on its failure and possible solutions to remedy its failure, the generalizations made as a result of the inability to distinguish between the policies behind drug addiction and the militarized policies behind drug trafficking have discounted the effect of violence perpetrated by the state, the rationale for the state perpetrating that violence, and the dependence that the state has on foreign actors to perpetrate such violence. This makes it impossible to not only propose effective strategy but also to persuade states that participate in the “War on Drug Traffickers” to adopt the proposed strategy.

Lions and Roses: An Interpretive History of Israeli-Iranian Relations

This multi-disciplinary research project explores the religious and cultural foundations within the “master commemorative narratives” that frame Israeli and Iranian political discourse. In articulating their grievances against one another, Israeli and Iranian leaders express the tensions between religion, nationalism, and modernity in their own societies. The theoretical and methodological approach of this dissertation is constructivist-interpretivist. The concept of “master commemorative narratives” is adapted from Yael Zerubavel’s study of ritualized remembrance in Israeli political culture, and applied to both Israeli and Iranian foreign policy. Israel’s master commemorative narrative draws heavily upon the language of the Hebrew Bible, situating foreign policy discourse within a paradigm of covenantal patrimony, exile, and return, despite the unrelenting hostility of eternal enemies and “the nations.” Iran’s master commemorative narrative expresses Iranian suspicion of foreign encroachment and interference, and of the internal corruption that they engender, sacralizing resistance to the forces of evil in the figurative language and myths of pre-Islamic tradition and of Shi‘a Islam. Using a constructivist-interpretive methodological approach, this research offers a unique interpretive analysis of the parallels between these narratives, where they intersect, and where they come into conflict. It highlights both the broad appeal and the diverse challenges to the components of these “master” narratives within Israeli and Iranian politics and society. The conclusion of this study explains the ways in which the recognition of religious and cultural conflicts through the optic of master commemorative narratives can complement the perspectives of other theoretical approaches and challenge the conventions of Security Studies. It also suggests some of the potential practical applications of this research in devising more effective international diplomacy.

Temor, silencio y deliberación: la inhibición de la opinión en Tucídides

Tucídides es una de nuestras mejores fuentes de información para conocer la práctica argumentativa de la deliberación democrática. En este trabajo se analiza uno de los vicios que, según el historiador, haría su aparición en la escena política ateniense a la muerte de Pericles: la instrumentalización del miedo para obtener la victoria momentánea en la asamblea. El temor prudente, que fuera una arma periclea para conducir la deliberación racional en aras del bien común, habría desaparecido siendo sustituido por el amedrentamiento del rival, la calumnia, el obstruccionismo y la parálisis de la confrontación dialéctica. Instauradas en la ciudad la desconfianza y la sospecha de ocultación, los golpistas del 411 hallaron el terreno abonado para callar las voces contrarias y, gracias al silencio, instaurar el terror.

La Ciberseguridad como factor crítico en la Seguridad de la Unión Europea

El ciberespacio es un escenario de conflicto altamente complejo al estar en constante evolución. Ni la Unión Europea ni ningún otro actor del sistema internacional se encuentra a salvo de las amenazas procedentes del ciberespacio. Pero los pasos dados desde la UE en el mundo de la ciberseguridad no son en absoluto suficientes. Europa necesita que su Estrategia de ciberseguridad sea realmente capaz de integrar a las diferentes Estrategias nacionales. Es urgente una mayor determinación, unos mayores recursos y unos mejores instrumentos que permitan a la Unión implementar una gestión de crisis y una prevención de ciberconflictos verdaderamente eficaz.

La Unión Europea y la OTAN en el marco de la nueva Estrategia Global de Seguridad de la Unión Europea

El artículo analiza la relación entre la Unión Europea y la OTAN en cuestiones de defensa, según se ha reflejado en las estrategias de seguridad de la Unión Europea, con particular atención a la Estrategia Global de la Unión Europea presentada en 2016. Se estudia la Estrategia de Seguridad Europea de 2003, el Informe de Implementación de 2008, y las nuevas aproximaciones al contexto internacional y a la seguridad europea que se reflejan en la Estrategia Global. Se analiza también el papel de la OTAN, así como la evolución de la política de seguridad de los Estados Unidos hacia Europa durante la Administración Obama. Finalmente se discute el posible futuro de la Política Común de Seguridad y Defensa de la UE (PCSD) después del Bréxit, así como las consecuencias para su relación con la OTAN.

A abordagem da OTAN aos problemas de segurança no século XXI

A presente dissertação propõe-se a abordar a agenda securitária da OTAN no século XXI. É através da teoria da securitização que são analisados os atos discursivos desta organização, que são práticas centrais na elaboração da agenda securitária desta aliança militar. São ainda analisados os conceitos estratégicos de 1991, 1999 e 2010, à luz da teoria da securitização, como forma de clarificação das preocupações securitárias da OTAN, permitindo assim contextualizar as medidas extraordinárias adoptadas para combater o risco associado a cada ameaça identificada.

Os movimentos migratórios para a Europa : Implicações para a Segurança Nacional

Os recentes movimentos migratórios para a Europa decorrentes da atual crise de refugiados é dos temas mais debatidos na atualidade. A instabilidade em países de África e do Médio Oriente, associada a Estados frágeis, cujas instituições deixaram de exercer o efetivo controlo, desenvolvendo-se sob a forma de conflitos armados, muitas vezes fundamentados em radicalismos de natureza étnica, religiosa e ideológica, estão na base das principais causas que provocaram os recentes movimentos migratórios descontrolados e sem precedentes. Estes massivos fluxos migratórios, terão necessariamente repercussões a vários níveis quer sobre as populações deslocadas, quer sobre as comunidades de acolhimento. As migrações atuais adquirem novos contornos, que nos levam a inserir este tema na agenda de investigação dos estudos de segurança. É neste âmbito que surge a investigação intitulada “Os Movimentos Migratórios para a Europa – Implicações para a Segurança Nacional”, que tal como o tema sugere, tem como objetivo primordial apurar quais as principais implicações para a segurança de Portugal, decorrentes dos atuais movimentos migratórios para a Europa, acabando também por propor algumas medidas de nível estratégico e operacional que permitam minorar os impactos na segurança. Assim sendo, a metodologia utilizada nesta investigação tem por base o método de investigação hipotético-dedutivo, que para a validação ou não das respetivas hipóteses formuladas, recorreu-se à realização de entrevistas a entidades que muito têm a dizer sobre esta temática. Conclui-se com a presente investigação que, apesar de Portugal, não fazer parte dos principais destinos desta recente vaga de imigrantes, e de as consequências destes massivos movimentos migratórios não serem fáceis de prever a médio e longo prazo, o nosso país, como parte integrante da UE e signatário do acordo de Schengen, depara-se com um conjunto de ameaças de natureza global, que podendo ser potenciadas por este fenómeno, também podem colocar em causa a nossa segurança.

Political Strategy, Leadership, and Policy Entrepreneurship in Japanese Defense Policy and Politics: A Comparison of Three Prime Ministerships

Since the end of the Cold War, Japan’s defense policy and politics has gone through significant changes. Throughout the post cold war period, US-Japan alliance managers, politicians with differing visions and preferences, scholars, think tanks, and the actions of foreign governments have all played significant roles in influencing these changes. Along with these actors, the Japanese prime minister has played an important, if sometimes subtle, role in the realm of defense policy and politics. Japanese prime ministers, though significantly weaker than many heads of state, nevertheless play an important role in policy by empowering different actors (bureaucratic actors, independent commissions, or civil actors), through personal diplomacy, through agenda-setting, and through symbolic acts of state. The power of the prime minister to influence policy processes, however, has frequently varied by prime minister. My dissertation investigates how different political strategies and entrepreneurial insights by the prime minister have influenced defense policy and politics since the end of the Cold War. In addition, it seeks to explain how the quality of political strategy and entrepreneurial insight employed by different prime ministers was important in the success of different approaches to defense. My dissertation employs a comparative case study approach to examine how different prime ministerial strategies have mattered in the realm of Japanese defense policy and politics. Three prime ministers have been chosen: Prime Minister Hashimoto Ryutaro (1996-1998); Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro (2001-2006); and Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio (2009-2010). These prime ministers have been chosen to provide maximum contrast on issues of policy preference, cabinet management, choice of partners, and overall strategy. As my dissertation finds, the quality of political strategy has been an important aspect of Japan’s defense transformation. Successful strategies have frequently used the knowledge and accumulated personal networks of bureaucrats, supplemented bureaucratic initiatives with top-down personal diplomacy, and used a revitalized US-Japan strategic relationship as a political resource for a stronger prime ministership. Though alternative approaches, such as those that have looked to displace the influence of bureaucrats and the US in defense policy, have been less successful, this dissertation also finds theoretical evidence that alternatives may exist.

GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.