904 resultados para risk theory


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Education is often viewed as a key approach to address sexual-health issues; the current concern is the burgeoning HIV/AIDS epidemic. This ethnographic study investigates the gender practices associated with high-risk sexual behaviour in Papua New Guinea as viewed by educators there. A number of practices, including gender inequality and associated sexual behaviours have been highlighted by male and female participants as escalating PNG’s HIV/AIDS epidemic. The study finds that although participants were well-informed concerning HIV/AIDS, they had varying beliefs concerning the prevailing gender/sexual issues involved in escalating highrisk behaviour and how to address the problem. The study further examines the behavioural beliefs and intentions of the educators themselves. Subsequently, within the data a number of underpinning factors, pertaining to gender, education and life experience, were found to be related to the behaviour beliefs and intentions of participants towards embracing change with regard to behaviours associated with gender equality in PNG. These factors appeared to encourage participants to adopt healthier gender and sexual behavioural intentions and, arguably, could provide the basis for ways to help address the gender inequality and high-risk behaviours associated with HIV/AIDS in PNG.

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To enhance workplace safety in the construction industry it is important to understand interrelationships among safety risk factors associated with construction accidents. This study incorporates the systems theory into Heinrich’s domino theory to explore the interrelationships of risks and break the chain of accident causation. Through both empirical and statistical analyses of 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011, the study investigates relationships between accidents and injury elements (e.g., injury type, part of body, injury severity) and the nature of construction injuries by accident type. The study then discusses relationships between accidents and risks, including worker behavior, injury source, and environmental condition, and identifies key risk factors and risk combinations causing accidents. The research outcomes will assist safety managers to prioritize risks according to the likelihood of accident occurrence and injury characteristics, and pay more attention to balancing significant risk relationships to prevent accidents and achieve safer working environments.

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Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

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Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

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The research reported here addresses the problem of athlete off-field behaviours as they influence sports’ sponsors, particularly the achievement of sponsorship objectives. The question arises because of incidents of sponsorship contract cancellation following news-media reporting of athletes’ off-field behaviours. Two studies are used to investigate the research question; the first establishes the content of news-media reports, and the second tests the effects of news’ reports on athlete, team and sponsor evaluations using an experimental design. Key assumptions of the research are that sponsorship objectives are principally consumer-based and mediated. Models of sponsorship argue that sponsors aim to reach and influence consumers through sponsees. Assuming this pathway exists is central to sponsorship activities. A corollary is that other mediators, in this case the news-media, may also communicate (uncontrollable) messages such that a consumer audience may be told of negative news that may then be associated with the sponsor. When sponsors cancel contracts it is assumed that their goal is to control the links between their brand and a negative referent. Balance theory is used to discuss the potential effects of negative off-field behaviours of athletes on sponsor’s objectives. Heider’s balance theory (1958) explains that individuals prefer to evaluate linked individuals or entities consistently. In the sponsorship context this presents the possibility that a negative evaluation of the athlete’s behaviour will contribute to correspondingly negative evaluations of the athlete’s team and sponsors. A content analysis (Study 1) was used to survey the types of athlete off-field behaviours commonly reported in a newspaper. In order to provide a local context for the research, articles from the Courier Mail were sampled and teams in the National Rugby League (NRL) competition were the focus of the research. The study identified nearly 2000 articles referring to the NRL competition; 258 of those refer to off-field incidents involving athletes. The various types of behaviours reported include assault, sexual assault allegations, driving under the influence of alcohol, illicit drug use, breaches of club rules, and positive off-field activities (i.e., charitable activities). An experiment (Study 2) tested three news’ article stimuli developed from the behaviours identified in Study 1 in a between-subjects design. A measure of Identification with the Team was used as a covariate variable in the Multivariate Analysis of Covariance analysis. Social identity theory suggests that when an individual identifies with a group, their attitudes and behaviours towards both in- and out-group members are modified. Use of Identification with the Team as a covariate acknowledges that respondents will evaluate behaviours differently according to the attribution of those behaviours to an in- or out-group member. Findings of the research suggest that the news’ article stimuli have significant, large effects on evaluations of athlete off-field behaviour and athlete Likability. Consistent with pretest results, charitable fundraising is regarded as extremely positive; the athlete, correspondingly, is likable. Assault is evaluated as extremely negative, and the athlete as unlikable. DUI scores reveal that the athlete’s behaviour is very negative; however, the athlete’s likability was evaluated as neutral. Treatment group does not produce any significant effects on team or sponsor variables. This research also finds that Identification with the Team has significant, large effects on team variables (Attitude toward the Brand and Corporate Image). Identification also has a significant large effect on athlete Likability, but not on Attitude toward the Act. Identification with the Team does not produce any significant effects on sponsor variables. The results of this research suggest that sponsor’s consumer-based objectives are not threatened by newspaper reports linking athlete off-field behaviour with their brand. Evaluations of sponsor variables (Attitude toward the Sponsor’s Brand and Corporate Image) were consistently positive. Variance in that data, however, cannot be attributed to experimental stimuli or Identification with the Team. These results argue that respondents may regard sponsorships, in principle, as good. Although it is good news for sponsors that negative evaluations of athletes will not produce correspondingly negative evaluations of consumer-based sponsorship objectives, the results indicate problems for sponsorship managers. The failure of Identification with the Team to explain sponsor variable variance indicates that the sponsor has not been evaluated as a linked entity in a relationship with the sporting team and athlete in this research. This result argues that the sponsee-mediated affective communication path that sponsors aim use to communicate with desirable publics is not necessarily a path available to them.

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Evidence within Australia and internationally suggests parenthood as a risk factor for inactivity; however, research into understanding parental physical activity is scarce. Given that active parents can create active families and social factors are important for parents’ decision making, the authors investigated a range of social influences on parents’ intentions to be physically active. Parents (N = 580; 288 mothers and 292 fathers) of children younger than 5 years completed an extended Theory of Planned Behavior questionnaire either online or paper based. For both genders, attitude, control factors, group norms, friend general support, and an active parent identity predicted intentions, with social pressure and family support further predicting mothers’ intentions and active others further predicting fathers’ intentions. Attention to these factors and those specific to the genders may improve parents’ intentions to be physically active, thus maximizing the benefits to their own health and the healthy lifestyle practices for other family members.

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Recent road safety statistics show that the decades-long fatalities decreasing trend is stopping and stagnating. Statistics further show that crashes are mostly driven by human error, compared to other factors such as environmental conditions and mechanical defects. Within human error, the dominant error source is perceptive errors, which represent about 50% of the total. The next two sources are interpretation and evaluation, which accounts together with perception for more than 75% of human error related crashes. Those statistics show that allowing drivers to perceive and understand their environment better, or supplement them when they are clearly at fault, is a solution to a good assessment of road risk, and, as a consequence, further decreasing fatalities. To answer this problem, currently deployed driving assistance systems combine more and more information from diverse sources (sensors) to enhance the driver's perception of their environment. However, because of inherent limitations in range and field of view, these systems' perception of their environment remains largely limited to a small interest zone around a single vehicle. Such limitations can be overcomed by increasing the interest zone through a cooperative process. Cooperative Systems (CS), a specific subset of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), aim at compensating for local systems' limitations by associating embedded information technology and intervehicular communication technology (IVC). With CS, information sources are not limited to a single vehicle anymore. From this distribution arises the concept of extended or augmented perception. Augmented perception allows extending an actor's perceptive horizon beyond its "natural" limits not only by fusing information from multiple in-vehicle sensors but also information obtained from remote sensors. The end result of an augmented perception and data fusion chain is known as an augmented map. It is a repository where any relevant information about objects in the environment, and the environment itself, can be stored in a layered architecture. This thesis aims at demonstrating that augmented perception has better performance than noncooperative approaches, and that it can be used to successfully identify road risk. We found it was necessary to evaluate the performance of augmented perception, in order to obtain a better knowledge on their limitations. Indeed, while many promising results have already been obtained, the feasibility of building an augmented map from exchanged local perception information and, then, using this information beneficially for road users, has not been thoroughly assessed yet. The limitations of augmented perception, and underlying technologies, have not be thoroughly assessed yet. Most notably, many questions remain unanswered as to the IVC performance and their ability to deliver appropriate quality of service to support life-saving critical systems. This is especially true as the road environment is a complex, highly variable setting where many sources of imperfections and errors exist, not only limited to IVC. We provide at first a discussion on these limitations and a performance model built to incorporate them, created from empirical data collected on test tracks. Our results are more pessimistic than existing literature, suggesting IVC limitations have been underestimated. Then, we develop a new CS-applications simulation architecture. This architecture is used to obtain new results on the safety benefits of a cooperative safety application (EEBL), and then to support further study on augmented perception. At first, we confirm earlier results in terms of crashes numbers decrease, but raise doubts on benefits in terms of crashes' severity. In the next step, we implement an augmented perception architecture tasked with creating an augmented map. Our approach is aimed at providing a generalist architecture that can use many different types of sensors to create the map, and which is not limited to any specific application. The data association problem is tackled with an MHT approach based on the Belief Theory. Then, augmented and single-vehicle perceptions are compared in a reference driving scenario for risk assessment,taking into account the IVC limitations obtained earlier; we show their impact on the augmented map's performance. Our results show that augmented perception performs better than non-cooperative approaches, allowing to almost tripling the advance warning time before a crash. IVC limitations appear to have no significant effect on the previous performance, although this might be valid only for our specific scenario. Eventually, we propose a new approach using augmented perception to identify road risk through a surrogate: near-miss events. A CS-based approach is designed and validated to detect near-miss events, and then compared to a non-cooperative approach based on vehicles equiped with local sensors only. The cooperative approach shows a significant improvement in the number of events that can be detected, especially at the higher rates of system's deployment.

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Public policymakers are caught in a dilemma : there is a growing list of urgent issues to address, at the same time that public expenditure is being cut. Adding to this dilemma is a system of government designed in the 19th century and competing theories of policymaking dating back to the 1950s. The interlinked problems of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation are cases in point. As the climate changes, there will be more frequent, intense and/or prolonged disasters such as floods and bushfires. Clearly a well integrated whole of government response is needed, but how might this be achieved? Further, how could academic research contribute to resolving this dilemma in a way that would produce something of theoretical interest as well as practical outcomes for policymakers? These are the questions addressed by our research via a comparative analysis of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. Our findings suggest that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings have implications for all areas of public policy theory and practice.

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This brief provides the conceptual background of current research aiming to improve the understanding of the relationship between consumer religiosity and social and psychological risks associated with adopting new products and technologies. This project includes two main studies framed by Hunt-Vitell’s General Theory of Marketing Ethics and Theory of Moral Potency. Using scenario based experimental 2x2 design, two research questions will be answered upon the completion of the project: what is the nature of the relationship between consumer religiosity and perceptions of psychological and social risk? What is the role of moral potency in the relationship between consumer religiosity perception of psychological and social risk?

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Sharing some closely related themes and a common theoretical orientation based on the governmentality analytic, these are nevertheless two very different contributions to criminological knowledge and theory. The first, The Currency of Justice: Fines and Damages in Consumer Societies (COJ), is a sustained and highly original analysis of that most pervasive yet overlooked feature of modern legal orders; their reliance on monetary sanctions. Crime and Risk (CAR), on the other hand, is a short synoptic overview of the many dimensions and trajectories of risk in contemporary debate and practice, both the practices of crime and the governance of crime. It is one of the first in a new series by Sage, 'Compact Criminology', in which authors survey in little more than a hundred pages some current field of debate. With this small gem, Pat O'Malley has set the bar very high for those who follow. For all its brevity, CAR traverses a massive expanse of research, debates and issues, while also opening up new and challenging questions around the politics of risk and the relationship between criminal risk-taking and the governance of risk and crime. The two books draw together various threads of O'Malley's rich body of work on these issues, and once again demonstrate that he is one of the foremost international scholars of risk inside and outside criminology.

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This essay examines the possibilities for practices that appeal to the primitive in the contemporary cultural context. The idea of the primitive is driven by a desire to challenge the limitations of Western culture, while at the same time attracting the charge of promoting Eurocentrism. This essay investigates this double risk and how artists have sought to evade it, confound it, or accentuate it.

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This study explores people's risk taking behaviour after having suffered large real-world losses following a natural disaster. Using the margins of the 2011 Australian floods (Brisbane) as a natural experimental setting, we find that homeowners who were victims of the floods and face large losses in property values are 50% more likely to opt for a risky gamble -- a scratch card giving a small chance of a large gain ($500,000) -- than for a sure amount of comparable value ($10). This finding is consistent with prospect theory predictions regarding the adoption of a risk-seeking attitude after a loss.

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The role of law in managing public health challenges such as influenza pandemics poses special challenges. This article reviews Australian plans in the context of the H1N1 09 experience to assess whether risk management was facilitated or inhibited by the "number" of levels or phases of management, the degree of prescriptive detail for particular phases, the number of plans, the clarity of the relationship between them, and the role of the media. Despite differences in the content and form of the plans at the time of the H1N1 09 emerging pandemic, the article argues that in practice, the plans proved to be responsive and robust bases for managing pandemic risks. It is suggested that this was because the plans proved to be frameworks for coordination rather than prescriptive straitjackets, to be only one component of the regulatory response, and to offer the varied tool box of possible responses, as called for by the theory of responsive regulation. Consistent with the principle of subsidiarity, it is argued that the plans did not inhibit localised responses such as selective school closures or rapid responses to selected populations such as cruise ship passengers.

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This thesis investigated risk management and organisational reliability in airports from the perspective of complex sociotechnical systems (CSSs). Two research studies were undertaken, the first focusing on the processes by which disruptive events occur, are detected and responded to; the second exploring the presence of organisational reliability traits within airports. A key result of the studies was the development of new approach: the Critical Incident Disturbance Process model that detailed a means to understand and analyse how disruptions in complex CSSs might be influenced by vulnerability reduction and enhanced risk management. Further, this thesis identified and defined the concept of 'compartmentalised reliability' in complex sociotechnical systems, extending existing knowledge of high reliability theory.