European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and its key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the influence of CO2 opportunity cost on the Spanish wholesale electricity price. Our sample includes all Phase II of the EU ETS and the first year of Phase III implementation, from January 2008 to December 2013. A vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relations, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables with air temperature and renewable energy as exogenous variables. We found a long-run relationship (cointegration) between electricity price, carbon price, and fuel prices. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result from the collapse on CO2 prices, therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.

Essays on oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic activity

Dans cette thèse, je me suis intéressé aux effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur l'activité macroéconomique selon la cause sous-jacente ces fluctuations. Les modèles économiques utilisés dans cette thèse sont principalement les modèles d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique (de l'anglais Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) et les modèles Vecteurs Autorégressifs, VAR. Plusieurs études ont examiné les effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur les principaux variables macroéconomiques, mais très peu d'entre elles ont fait spécifiquement le lien entre les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole et la l'origine de ces fluctuations. Pourtant, il est largement admis dans les études plus récentes que les augmentations du prix du pétrole peuvent avoir des effets très différents en fonction de la cause sous-jacente de cette augmentation. Ma thèse, structurée en trois chapitres, porte une attention particulière aux sources de fluctuations du prix de pétrole et leurs impacts sur l'activité macroéconomique en général, et en particulier sur l'économie du Canada. Le premier chapitre examine comment les chocs d'offre de pétrole, de demande agrégée, et de demande de précaution de pétrole affectent l'économie du Canada, dans un Modèle d'équilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique estimé. L'estimation est réalisée par la méthode Bayésienne, en utilisant des données trimestrielles canadiennes sur la période 1983Q1 à 2010Q4. Les résultats montrent que les effets dynamiques des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les principaux agrégats macro-économiques canadiens varient en fonction de leurs sources. En particulier, une augmentation de 10% du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs positifs sur la demande globale étrangère a un effet positif significatif de l'ordre de 0,4% sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact et l'effet reste positif sur tous les horizons. En revanche, une augmentation du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs négatifs sur l'offre de pétrole ou par des chocs positifs de la demande de pétrole de précaution a un effet négligeable sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact, mais provoque une baisse légèrement significative après l'impact. En outre, parmi les chocs pétroliers identifiés, les chocs sur la demande globale étrangère ont été relativement plus important pour expliquer la fluctuation des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques du Canada au cours de la période d'estimation. Le deuxième chapitre utilise un modèle Structurel VAR en Panel pour examiner les liens entre les chocs de demande et d'offre de pétrole et les ajustements de la demande de travail et des salaires dans les industries manufacturières au Canada. Le modèle est estimé sur des données annuelles désagrégées au niveau industriel sur la période de 1975 à 2008. Les principaux résultats suggèrent qu'un choc positif de demande globale a un effet positif sur la demande de travail et les salaires, à court terme et à long terme. Un choc négatif sur l'offre de pétrole a un effet négatif relativement faible au moment de l'impact, mais l'effet devient positif après la première année. En revanche, un choc positif sur la demande précaution de pétrole a un impact négatif à tous les horizons. Les estimations industrie-par-industrie confirment les précédents résultats en panel. En outre, le papier examine comment les effets des différents chocs pétroliers sur la demande travail et les salaires varient en fonction du degré d'exposition commerciale et de l'intensité en énergie dans la production. Il ressort que les industries fortement exposées au commerce international et les industries fortement intensives en énergie sont plus vulnérables aux fluctuations du prix du pétrole causées par des chocs d'offre de pétrole ou des chocs de demande globale. Le dernier chapitre examine les implications en terme de bien-être social de l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole sur le marché mondial à l'aide d'un modèle DSGE de trois pays dont deux pays importateurs de pétrole et un pays exportateur de pétrole. Les gains de bien-être sont mesurés par la variation compensatoire de la consommation sous deux règles de politique monétaire. Les principaux résultats montrent que l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole a des effets négatifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans chacun des deux pays importateurs de pétrole, alors qu'il a des effets positifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans le pays exportateur de pétrole, quelle que soit la règle de politique monétaire. Par ailleurs, l'inclusion de la dépréciation du taux de change dans les règles de politique monétaire permet de réduire les coûts sociaux pour les pays importateurs de pétrole. Enfin, l'ampleur des effets de bien-être dépend du niveau d'inventaire en pétrole à l'état stationnaire et est principalement expliquée par les chocs sur les inventaires en pétrole.

The price of space: the convergence of value in use and value in exchange

This paper discusses concepts of value from the point of view of the user of the space and the counter view of the provider of the same. Land and property are factors of production. The value of the land flows from the use to which it is put, and that in turn, is dependent upon the demand (and supply) for the product or service that is produced/provided from that space. If there is a high demand for the product (at a fixed level of supply), the price will increase and the economic rent for the land/property will increase accordingly. This is the underlying paradigm of Ricardian rent theory where the supply of land is fixed and a single good is produced. In such a case the rent of land is wholly an economic rent. Economic theory generally distinguishes between two kinds of price, price of production or “value in use” (as determined by the labour theory of value), and market price or “value in exchange” (as determined by supply and demand). It is based on a coherent and consistent theory of value and price. Effectively the distinction is between what space is ‘worth’ to an individual and that space’s price of exchange in the market place. In a perfect market where any individual has access to the same information as all others in the market, price and worth should coincide. However in a market where access to information is not uniform, and where different uses compete for the same space, it is more likely that the two figures will diverge. This paper argues that the traditional reliance of valuers to use methods of comparison to determine “price” has led to an artificial divergence of “value in use” and “value in exchange”, but now such comparison are becoming more difficult due to the diversity of lettings in the market place, there will be a requirement to return to fundamentals and pay heed to the thought process of the user in assessing the worth of the space to be let.

Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents

We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account the market price and the perceived fundamental value of the asset. The resulting excess demand is coupled to the market price. Rigorous analysis reveals that this feedback may lead to price oscillations, a single bounce, or monotonic price behaviour. The model is a rare example of an analytically tractable interacting-agent model which allows LIS to deduce in detail the origin of these different collective patterns. For a natural choice of initial distribution, the results are independent of the graph structure that models the peer network of agents whose decisions influence each other. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent increases in shipping costs and their impact on exports from Latin America

This issue of the FAL Bulletin is based on a study prepared by ECLAC which works out a provisional approach for estimating the impact of increases in freight rates on exports from Latin America during the last few quarters. The total cost of exports from the region reflects the increases in three different components: the quantities exported, the prices of the goods and the freight charges. The influence of each of these is estimated.The information bases used are comprised of data obtained from the World Trade Organization (WTO), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) (International Transport Database) and the authors own direct compilation. The conclusion is that total exports from Latin America varied by US$ 5.72 billion in the first half of 2004 compared with the first half of 2003; of this amount, US$ 2,105,000,000 correspond to the variation in price and quantity and US$ 3,615,000,000 represent the increase in export freight rates. When compared with the first half of 2002, the variation is in excess of US$ 8 billion.

Consumer preferences towards beef cattle in Chile : Importance of country of origin, cut, packaging, brand and price

A study was carried out to evaluate preferences for two cuts, four countries of origin, two forms of presentation, brand and different prices of beef cattle among supermarket buyers in southern Chile, and to distinguish the existence of different market segments, through a survey of 800 people. Using a fractional factorial design for conjoint analysis, it was determined overall that the origin was more important (44.5%) than price (20.8%), form of presentation (12.2%), cut (12.0%) and brand (10.5%), with preference for Chilean and Argentinean striploin, packaged on trays, with no brand at medium price. Using a cluster analysis, three market segments were distinguished. The largest (52.3%) placed great importance on origin and preferred the highest price. The second (27.5%) also valued origin with the greatest preference for Argentinean beef, and it was the only group that preferred the ribeye as the cut. The third (20.5%) placed the greatest importance on price, and was the only group that preferred Paraguayan meat. The segments differed in the importance of eating meat for their personal well-being. The low importance of packaging and brand indicates poorly developed marketing of this product. In order to properly insert brand beef in the Chilean market, communication strategies must be implemented that identify the product with superior quality and that position the brand in the consumer's mind.

Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Price transmission dynamics between ADRs and their underlying foreign security: The case of Banco de Colombia S.A.- Bancolombia.

This paper analyzes the dynamics ofthe American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of a Colombian bank (Bancolombia) in relation to its pricing factors (underlying (preferred) shares price, exchange rate and the US market index). The aim is to test if there is a long-term relation among these variables that would imply predictability. One cointegrating relation is found allowing the use of a vector error correction model to examine the transmission of shocks to the underlying prices, the exchange rate, and the US market index. The main finding of this paper is that in the short run, the underlying share price seems to adjust after changes in the ADR price, pointing to the fact that the NYSE (trading market for the ADR) leads the Colombian market. However, in the long run, both, the underlying share price and the ADR price, adjust to changes in one another.

The NOURISH randomised control trial : positive feeding practices and food preferences in early childhood - a primary prevention program for childhood obesity

Background Primary prevention of childhood overweight is an international priority. In Australia 20-25% of 2-8 year olds are already overweight. These children are at substantially increased the risk of becoming overweight adults, with attendant increased risk of morbidity and mortality. Early feeding practices determine infant exposure to food (type, amount, frequency) and include responses (eg coercion) to infant feeding behaviour (eg. food refusal). There is correlational evidence linking parenting style and early feeding practices to child eating behaviour and weight status. A focus on early feeding is consistent with the national focus on early childhood as the foundation for life-long health and well being. The NOURISH trial aims to implement and evaluate a community-based intervention to promote early feeding practices that will foster healthy food preferences and intake and preserve the innate capacity to self-regulate food intake in young children. Methods/Design This randomised controlled trial (RCT) aims to recruit 820 first-time mothers and their healthy term infants. A consecutive sample of eligible mothers will be approached postnatally at major maternity hospitals in Brisbane and Adelaide. Initial consent will be for re-contact for full enrolment when the infants are 4-7 months old. Individual mother- infant dyads will be randomised to usual care or the intervention. The intervention will provide anticipatory guidance via two modules of six fortnightly parent education and peer support group sessions, each followed by six months of regular maintenance contact. The modules will commence when the infants are aged 4-7 and 13-16 months to coincide with establishment of solid feeding, and autonomy and independence, respectively. Outcome measures will be assessed at baseline, with follow up at nine and 18 months. These will include infant intake (type and amount of foods), food preferences, feeding behaviour and growth and self-reported maternal feeding practices and parenting practices and efficacy. Covariates will include sociodemographics, infant feeding mode and temperament, maternal weight status and weight concern and child care exposure. Discussion Despite the strong rationale to focus on parents’ early feeding practices as a key determinant of child food preferences, intake and self-regulatory capacity, prospective longitudinal and intervention studies are rare. This trial will be amongst to provide Level II evidence regarding the impact of an intervention (commencing prior to age 12 months) on children’s eating patterns and behaviours. Trial Registration: ACTRN12608000056392

An analysis and comparison of rural land sales

Rural land prices, in developed, free trade real estate markets, are influenced not only by prevailing economic conditions but also physical factors such as climate, topography and soil type. In broad acre farming and grazing operations, both commodity price and yields determine farm income. Yields, in turn, are a function of climate, topography and soil type. The strength of a rural land market is influenced by the overall rural economy in a Country, State or region. These differences in rural land markets can also vary within smaller regions. It has been held that rural land, in relative safe production areas, is less effected by adverse economic and climatic factors than land in more marginal agricultural areas. This paper will analyse rural land sales in both traditional cropping areas and marginal cropping areas for the period 1975 to 1996. The analysis will determine the overall trend in rural land prices over the period, compare the average annual return between marginal and established farming areas and determine which economic and production factors have influenced this change. The impact of this analysis will also be discussed in relation to rural land appraisal.

Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity : new evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand - per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas - using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960-2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, - 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 032, - 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and(4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages ill the country.

Assessing the impact of floods and flood legislation on residential property prices

The changing development and population sprawl in major cities, especially those located in high rainfall areas, has resulted in the need to review and re-assess potential flood impacts in these cities. In many cases these new flood lines and flood maps have placed residential property that was previously considered to be flood free to now be considered to be potentially flood liable. Previous research based in Sydney and the UK has identified the fact that residential property that has been subject to flooding has a decreased price and higher investment risk than flood free property in the same location. These studies have also shown that the greatest impact on residential property subject to flooding is just following a flood event. In June 2009, Brisbane City Council released revised flood maps for the Greater Brisbane region and these maps have identified areas that have not previously been considered flood liable. This paper will analyse the sale performance of flood liable streets in the main flood areas of Brisbane over the period January 1990 through to June 2009, to determine the variation in price for these flood liable areas to the residential property immediately adjoining them. The average sale price will be tracked on both a geographic location and socio-economic basis.

The use of visual analogue scales to assess motivation to eat in human subjects: a review of their reliability and validity with an evaluation of new hand-held computerized stsytems for temporal tracking of appetite ratings.

This present paper reviews the reliability and validity of visual analogue scales (VAS) in terms of (1) their ability to predict feeding behaviour, (2) their sensitivity to experimental manipulations, and (3) their reproducibility. VAS correlate with, but do not reliably predict, energy intake to the extent that they could be used as a proxy of energy intake. They do predict meal initiation in subjects eating their normal diets in their normal environment. Under laboratory conditions, subjectively rated motivation to eat using VAS is sensitive to experimental manipulations and has been found to be reproducible in relation to those experimental regimens. Other work has found them not to be reproducible in relation to repeated protocols. On balance, it would appear, in as much as it is possible to quantify, that VAS exhibit a good degree of within-subject reliability and validity in that they predict with reasonable certainty, meal initiation and amount eaten, and are sensitive to experimental manipulations. This reliability and validity appears more pronounced under the controlled (but more arti®cial) conditions of the laboratory where the signal : noise ratio in experiments appears to be elevated relative to real life. It appears that VAS are best used in within-subject, repeated-measures designs where the effect of different treatments can be compared under similar circumstances. They are best used in conjunction with other measures (e.g. feeding behaviour, changes in plasma metabolites) rather than as proxies for these variables. New hand-held electronic appetite rating systems (EARS) have been developed to increase reliability of data capture and decrease investigator workload. Recent studies have compared these with traditional pen and paper (P&P) VAS. The EARS have been found to be sensitive to experimental manipulations and reproducible relative to P&P. However, subjects appear to exhibit a signi®cantly more constrained use of the scale when using the EARS relative to the P&P. For this reason it is recommended that the two techniques are not used interchangeably

Compliance with international financial reporting standards (IFRS) and the value relevance of accounting information in emerging stock markets : evidence from Kuwait

Since the 1960s, the value relevance of accounting information has been an important topic in accounting research. The value relevance research provides evidence as to whether accounting numbers relate to corporate value in a predicted manner (Beaver, 2002). Such research is not only important for investors but also provides useful insights into accounting reporting effectiveness for standard setters and other users. Both the quality of accounting standards used and the effectiveness associated with implementing these standards are fundamental prerequisites for high value relevance (Hellstrom, 2006). However, while the literature comprehensively documents the value relevance of accounting information in developed markets, little attention has been given to emerging markets where the quality of accounting standards and their enforcement are questionable. Moreover, there is currently no known research that explores the association between level of compliance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and the value relevance of accounting information. Motivated by the lack of research on the value relevance of accounting information in emerging markets and the unique institutional setting in Kuwait, this study has three objectives. First, it investigates the extent of compliance with IFRS with respect to firms listed on the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE). Second, it examines the value relevance of accounting information produced by KSE-listed firms over the 1995 to 2006 period. The third objective links the first two and explores the association between the level of compliance with IFRS and the value relevance of accounting information to market participants. Since it is among the first countries to adopt IFRS, Kuwait provides an ideal setting in which to explore these objectives. In addition, the Kuwaiti accounting environment provides an interesting regulatory context in which each KSE-listed firm is required to appoint at least two external auditors from separate auditing firms. Based on the research objectives, five research questions (RQs) are addressed. RQ1 and RQ2 aim to determine the extent to which KSE-listed firms comply with IFRS and factors contributing to variations in compliance levels. These factors include firm attributes (firm age, leverage, size, profitability, liquidity), the number of brand name (Big-4) auditing firms auditing a firm’s financial statements, and industry categorization. RQ3 and RQ4 address the value relevance of IFRS-based financial statements to investors. RQ5 addresses whether the level of compliance with IFRS contributes to the value relevance of accounting information provided to investors. Based on the potential improvement in value relevance from adopting and complying with IFRS, it is predicted that the higher the level of compliance with IFRS, the greater the value relevance of book values and earnings. The research design of the study consists of two parts. First, in accordance with prior disclosure research, the level of compliance with mandatory IFRS is examined using a disclosure index. Second, the value relevance of financial statement information, specifically, earnings and book value, is examined empirically using two valuation models: price and returns models. The combined empirical evidence that results from the application of both models provides comprehensive insights into value relevance of accounting information in an emerging market setting. Consistent with expectations, the results show the average level of compliance with IFRS mandatory disclosures for all KSE-listed firms in 2006 was 72.6 percent; thus, indicating KSE-listed firms generally did not fully comply with all requirements. Significant variations in the extent of compliance are observed among firms and across accounting standards. As predicted, older, highly leveraged, larger, and profitable KSE-listed firms are more likely to comply with IFRS required disclosures. Interestingly, significant differences in the level of compliance are observed across the three possible auditor combinations of two Big-4, two non-Big 4, and mixed audit firm types. The results for the price and returns models provide evidence that earnings and book values are significant factors in the valuation of KSE-listed firms during the 1995 to 2006 period. However, the results show that the value relevance of earnings and book values decreased significantly during that period, suggesting that investors rely less on financial statements, possibly due to the increase in the available non-financial statement sources. Notwithstanding this decline, a significant association is observed between the level of compliance with IFRS and the value relevance of earnings and book value to KSE investors. The findings make several important contributions. First, they raise concerns about the effectiveness of the regulatory body that oversees compliance with IFRS in Kuwait. Second, they challenge the effectiveness of the two-auditor requirement in promoting compliance with regulations as well as the associated cost-benefit of this requirement for firms. Third, they provide the first known empirical evidence linking the level of IFRS compliance with the value relevance of financial statement information. Finally, the findings are relevant for standard setters and for their current review of KSE regulations. In particular, they highlight the importance of establishing and maintaining adequate monitoring and enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance with accounting standards. In addition, the finding that stricter compliance with IFRS improves the value relevance of accounting information highlights the importance of full compliance with IFRS and not just mere adoption.

Environmental aspects and challenges of oilseed produced biodiesel in Southeast Asia

Research on alternative fuel for the vehemently growing number of automotivesis intensified due to environmental reasons rather than turmoil in energy price and supply. From the policy and steps to emphasis the use of biofuel by governments all around the world, this can be comprehended that biofuel have placed itself as a number one substitute for fossil fuels. These phenomena made Southeast Asia a prominent exporter of biodiesel. But thrust in biodiesel production from oilseeds of palm and Jatropha curcas in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand is seriously threatening environmental harmony. This paper focuses on this critical issue of biodiesels environmental impacts, policy, standardization of this region as well as on the emission of biodiesel in automotive uses. To draw a bottom line on feasibilities of different feedstock of biodiesel, a critical analysis on oilseed yield rate, land use, engine emissions and oxidation stability is reviewed. Palm oil based biodiesel is clearly ahead in all these aspects of feasibility, except in the case of NOx where it lags from conventional petro diesel.