Extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in the decline and extinction of Australian marsupials

Recent attempts to explain the susceptibility of vertebrates to declines worldwide have largely focused on intrinsic factors such as body size, reproductive potential, ecological specialization, geographical range and phylogenetic longevity. Here, we use a database of 145 Australian marsupial species to test the effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in a multivariate comparative approach. We model five intrinsic (body size, habitat specialization, diet, reproductive rate and range size) and four extrinsic (climate and range overlap with introduced foxes, sheep and rabbits) factors. We use quantitative measures of geographical range contraction as indices of decline. We also develop a new modelling approach of phylogenetically independent contrasts combined with imputation of missing values to deal simultaneously with phylogenetic structuring and missing data. One extrinsic variable-geographical range overlap with sheep-was the only consistent predictor of declines. Habitat specialization was independently but less consistently associated with declines. This suggests that extrinsic factors largely determine interspecific variation in extinction risk among Australian marsupials, and that the intrinsic factors that are consistently associated with extinction risk in other vertebrates are less important in this group. We conclude that recent anthropogenic changes have been profound enough to affect species on a continent-wide scale, regardless of their intrinsic biology.

Variable Demand and Profitability in Service Companies: a case study in the information technology sector

Managing a variable demand scenario is particularly challenging on services organizations because services companies usually have a major part of fixed costs. The article studies how a services organization manages its demand variability and its relation with the organization`s profitability. Moreover, the study searched for alternatives used to reduce the demand variability`s impact on the profitability of the company. The research was based on a case study with a Brazilian services provider on information technology business. The study suggests that alternatives like using outsourced employees to cover demand peaks may bring benefits only on short term, reducing the profitability of the company on long term: Some options are revealed, like the internationalization of employees and the investment on developing its own workforce.

Familial partial epilepsy with variable foci: Clinical features and linkage to chromosome 22q12

Background: Familial partial epilepsy with variable foci (FPEVF) is an autosomal dominant syndrome characterized by partial seizures originating from different brain regions in different family members in the absence of detectable structural abnormalities. A gene for FPEVF was mapped to chromosome 22q12 in two distantly related French-Canadian families. Methods: We describe the clinical features and performed a linkage analysis in a Spanish kindred and in a third French-Canadian family distantly related to the original pedigrees. Results: Onset of seizures was typically in middle childhood, and attacks were usually easy to control. Seizure semiology varied among family members but was constant for each individual. In some, a pattern of nocturnal frontal lobe seizures led to consideration of the diagnosis of autosomal dominant nocturnal frontal lobe epilepsy (ADNFLE). The Spanish family was mapped to chromosome 22q (multipoint lod score, 3.4), and the new French-Canadian family had a multipoint lod score of 2.97 and shared the haplotype of the original French-Canadian families. Conclusions: Identification of the various forms of familial partial epilepsy is challenging, particularly in small families, in which insufficient individuals exist to identify a specific pattern. We provide clinical guidelines for this task, which will eventually be supplanted by specific molecular diagnosis. We confirmed linkage of FPEVF to chromosome 22q 12 and redefined the region to a 5.2-Mb segment of DNA.

Variable effects of larval size on post-metamorphic performance in the field

Larval quality may be capable of explaining much of the variation in the recruitment and subsequent population dynamics of benthic marine invertebrates. Whilst the effects of larval nutritional condition on adult performance have received the most attention, recent work has shown that larval size may also be an important and ubiquitous source of variation in larval quality. We examined the effects of variation in larval size on the post-metamorphic survival and growth of Watersipora subtorquata in 2 very different habitats - experimental substrata and pier pilings. We found strong effects of larval size on colony performance, although these varied among experiments. For colonies on experimental substrata, larval size positively affected adult survival and, initially, growth. However, after 3 wk in the field, there was no relationship between larval size and colony size, possibly because colonies were completely surrounded by newly settled organisms. Larval size also positively affected post-metamorphic growth of colonies on pier pilings, but, surprisingly, colonies that came from larger larvae had lower survival than colonies from smaller larvae. Overall, variation in larval size will strongly affect the recruitment and subsequent performance of adults in this species, although this may vary among different habitats. This study highlights the importance of examining the effects of larval quality on adult performance in as realistic conditions as possible, because of the strong interaction between larval size effects and the environment.

A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional model for multi-component reactive transport with variable density groundwater flow

PHWAT is a new model that couples a geochemical reaction model (PHREEQC-2) with a density-dependent groundwater flow and solute transport model (SEAWAT) using the split-operator approach. PHWAT was developed to simulate multi-component reactive transport in variable density groundwater flow. Fluid density in PHWAT depends not on only the concentration of a single species as in SEAWAT, but also the concentrations of other dissolved chemicals that can be subject to reactive processes. Simulation results of PHWAT and PHREEQC-2 were compared in their predictions of effluent concentration from a column experiment. Both models produced identical results, showing that PHWAT has correctly coupled the sub-packages. PHWAT was then applied to the simulation of a tank experiment in which seawater intrusion was accompanied by cation exchange. The density dependence of the intrusion and the snow-plough effect in the breakthrough curves were reflected in the model simulations, which were in good agreement with the measured breakthrough data. Comparison simulations that, in turn, excluded density effects and reactions allowed us to quantify the marked effect of ignoring these processes. Next, we explored numerical issues involved in the practical application of PHWAT using the example of a dense plume flowing into a tank containing fresh water. It was shown that PHWAT could model physically unstable flow and that numerical instabilities were suppressed. Physical instability developed in the model in accordance with the increase of the modified Rayleigh number for density-dependent flow, in agreement with previous research. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FGF-23 as a Predictor of Renal Outcome in Diabetic Nephropathy

Background and objectives Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) has emerged as a new factor in mineral metabolism in chronic kidney disease (CKD). An important regulator of phosphorus homeostasis, FGF-23 has been shown to independently predict CKD progression in nondiabetic renal disease. We analyzed the relation between FGF-23 and renal outcome in diabetic nephropathy (DN). Design, setting, participants, & measurements DN patients participating in a clinical trial (enalapril+placebo versus enalapril+losartan) had baseline data collected and were followed until June 2009 or until the primary outcome was reached. Four patients were lost to follow-up. The composite primary outcome was defined as death, doubling of serum creatinine, and/or dialysis need. Results At baseline, serum FGF-23 showed a significant association with serum creatinine, intact parathyroid hormone, proteirturia, urinary fractional excretion of phosphate, male sex, and race. Interestingly, FGF-23 was not related to calcium, phosphorus, 25OH-vitamin D, or 24-hour urinary phosphorus. Mean follow-up time was 30.7 +/- 10 months. Cox regression showed that FGF-23 was an independent predictor of the primary outcome, even after adjustment for creatinine clearance and intact parathyroid hormone (10 pg/ml FGF-23 increase = hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.16, P = 0.02). Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significantly higher risk of the primary outcome in patients with FGF-23 values of >70 pg/ml. Conclusions FGF-23 is a significant independent predictor of renal outcome in patients with macroalbuminuric DN. Further studies should clarify whether this relation is causal and whether FGF-23 should be a new therapeutic target for CKD prevention. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 241-247, 2011. doi: 10.2215/CJN.04250510

Allergic asthma in patients with common variable immunodeficiency

P>Background: Many patients with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) have a clinical history suggestive of allergic respiratory disease. However, in such individuals, the prevalence of asthma and the role of atopy have not been well established. The objective of this study was to evaluate pulmonary function and identify asthma in patients with CVID. We also investigated the role of IgE as a trigger of asthma in these patients. Methods: Sixty-two patients diagnosed with CVID underwent spirometry, as well as skin prick testing and in vitro determination of serum-specific IgE levels for aeroallergens, together with bronchial provocation with histamine and allergen. Results: The most common alteration identified through spirometry was obstructive lung disease, which was observed in 29 (47.5%) of the 62 patients evaluated. Eighteen (29.0%) of the 62 patients had a clinical history suggestive of allergic asthma. By the end of the study, asthma had been diagnosed in nine (14.5%) patients and atopy had been identified in six (9.7%). In addition, allergic asthma had been diagnosed in four patients (6.5% of the sample as a whole; 22.2% of the 18 patients with a clinical history suggestive of the diagnosis). Conclusion: In this study, CVID patients testing negative for specific IgE antibodies and suspected of having allergic asthma presented a positive response to bronchial provocation tests with allergens. To our knowledge, this is the first such study. When CVID patients with a history suggestive of allergic asthma test negative on traditional tests, additional tests designed to identify allergic asthma might be conducted.

Depression: a predictor of smoking relapse in a 6-month follow-up after hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome

Objective The objective of the study was to investigate whether depression is a predictor of postdischarge smoking relapse among patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction (MI) or unstable angina (ILIA), in a smoke-free hospital. Methods Current smokers with MI or UA were interviewed while hospitalized; patients classified with major depression (MD) or no humor disorder were reinterviewed 6 months post discharge to ascertain smoking status. Potential predictors of relapse (depression; stress; anxiety; heart disease risk perception; coffee and alcohol consumption; sociodemographic, clinical, and smoking habit characteristics) were compared between those with MD (n = 268) and no humor disorder (n = 135). Results Relapsers (40.4%) were more frequently and more severely depressed, had higher anxiety and lower self-efficacy scale scores, diagnosis of UA, shorter hospitalizations, started smoking younger, made fewer attempts to quit, had a consort less often, and were more frequently at the `precontemplation` stage of change. Multivariate analysis showed relapse-positive predictors to be MD [odds ratio (OR): 2.549; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.519-4.275] (P<0.001); `precontemplation` stage of change (OR: 7.798; 95% CI: 2.442-24.898) (P<0.001); previous coronary bypass graft surgery (OR: 4.062; 95% CI: 1.356-12.169) (P=0.012); and previous anxiolytic use (OR: 2.365; 95% CI: 1.095-5.107) (P=0.028). Negative predictors were diagnosis of MI (OR: 0.575; 95% CI: 0.361-0.916) (P=0.019); duration of hospitalization (OR: 0.935; 95% CI: 0.898-0.973) (P=0.001); smoking onset age (OR: 0.952; 95% CI: 0.910-0.994) (P=0.028); number of attempts to quit smoking (OR: 0.808; 95% CI: 0.678-0.964) (P=0.018); and `action` stage of change (OR: 0.065; 95% CI: 0.008-0.532) (P= 0.010). Conclusion Depression, no motivation, shorter hospitalization, and severity of illness contributed to postdischarge resumption of smoking by patients with acute coronary syndrome, who underwent hospital-initiated smoking cessation.

Conformational dynamics of thyroid hormones by variable temperature nuclear magnetic resonance: The role of side chain rotations and cisoid/transoid interconversions

H-1 NMR spectra of the thyroid hormone thyroxine recorded at low temperature and high field show splitting into two peaks of the resonance due to the H2,6 protons of the inner (tyrosyl) ring. A single resonance is observed in 600 MHz spectra at temperatures above 185 K. An analysis of the line shape as a function of temperature shows that the coalescence phenomenon is due to an exchange process with a barrier of 37 kJ mol(-1). This is identical to the barrier for coalescence of the H2',6' protons of the outer (phenolic) ring reported previously for the thyroid hormones and their analogues. It is proposed that the separate peaks at low temperature are due to resonances for H2,6 in cisoid and transoid conformers which are populated in approximately equal populations. These two peaks are averaged resonances for the individual H2 and H6 protons. Conversion of cisoid to transoid forms can occur via rotation of either the alanyl side chain or the outer ring, from one face of the inner ring to the other. It is proposed that the latter process is the one responsible for the observed coalescence phenomenon. The barrier to rotation of the alanyl side chain is greater than or equal to 37 kJ mol(-1), which is significantly larger than has previously been reported for Csp(2)-Csp(3) bonds in other Ph-CH2-X systems. The recent crystal structure of a hormone agonist bound to the ligand-binding domain of the rat thyroid hormone receptor (Wagner et al. Nature 1995, 378, 690-697) shows the transoid form to be the bound conformation. The significant energy barrier to cisoid/transoid interconversion determined in the current study combined with the tight fit of the hormone to its receptor suggests that interconversion between the forms cannot occur at the receptor site but that selection for the preferred bound form occurs from the 50% population of the transoid form in solution.

Development of an IgG4-Based Predictor of Endemic Pemphigus Foliaceus (Fogo Selvagem)

Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.

Increased Immunoglobulin G Anti-Paracoccidioides brasiliensis Serum Antibody Avidity as a Predictor of Favorable Posttherapeutic Evolution in Paracoccidioidomycosis

Paracoccidioidomycosis is endemic in Latin America, and ca. 80% of all cases occur in Brazil. Little is known about antibody avidity or the evolution of such avidity in the posttherapeutic period for the different clinical presentations of the disease. In the present study, we evaluated 53 patients with paracoccidioidomycosis and calculated the avidity index. Medium-and high-avidity antibodies were found in 79.5% of patients with chronic presentation (n = 39). Among patients with the acute form (n = 14), 57.1% of the antibodies presented low avidity. In the posttherapeutic period, there was a significant increase in antibody avidity in patients presenting with the chronic multifocal form. In our preliminary study, which needs to be confirmed using a larger number of samples, the optimized method for studying antibody avidity detected differences among the clinical presentations of the mycosis and indicated the value of the avidity index as a marker of posttherapeutic evolution of patients with a multifocal chronic form of the disease.

Impact of Atypical Retardation Patterns on Detection of Glaucoma Progression using the GDx with Variable Corneal Compensation

PURPOSE: To evaluate the impact of atypical retardation patterns (ARP) on detection of progressive retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) loss using scanning laser polarimetry with variable corneal compensation (VCC). DESIGN: Observational cohort study. METHODS: The study included 377 eyes of 221 patients with a median follow-up of 4.0 years. Images were obtained annually with the GDx VCC (Carl Zeiss Med, itec Inc, Dublin, California, USA), along with optic disc stereophotographs and standard automated perimetry (SAP) visual fields. Progression was determined by the Guided Progression Analysis software for SAP and by masked assessment of stereophotographs by expert graders. The typical scan score (TSS) was used to quantify the presence of ARPs on GDx VCC images. Random coefficients models were used to evaluate the relationship between ARP and RNFL thickness measurements over time. RESULTS: Thirty-eight eyes (10%) showed progression over time on visual fields, stereophotographs, or both. Changes in TSS scores from baseline were significantly associated with changes in RNFL thickness measurements in both progressing and nonprogressing eyes. Each I unit increase in TSS score was associated with a 0.19-mu m decrease in RNFL thickness measurement (P < .001) over time. CONCLUSIONS: ARPs had a significant effect on detection of progressive RNFL loss with the GDx VCC. Eyes with large amounts of atypical patterns, great fluctuations on these patterns over time, or both may show changes in measurements that can appear falsely as glaucomatous progression or can mask true changes in the RNFL. (Am J Ophthalmol 2009;148:155-163. (C) 2009 by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Bowel dilation as a predictor of adverse outcome in isolated fetal gastroschisis

Objectives This study was designed to evaluate bowel diameter as a predictor of adverse outcome in isolated fetal gastroschisis Methods Retrospective study involving 94 singleton pregnancies Ultrasound measurements of herniated bowel transverse diameter (BTD) were performed up to 3 weeks before delivery Adverse outcome was intrauterine/neonatal death and/or bowel complications Results Last BTD was recorded at 35 6 +/- 1 6 weeks and mean interval to delivery was 6 2 +/- 5 0 days Intrauterine/neonatal death occurred in 10 (10 6%) cases, bowel complications were observed in 8 (8 5%) BTD >= 15, >= 20, >= 25, and >= 30 mm were found in 87, 46, 13, and 4% of pregnancies with a favorable outcome. respectively BTD >= 25 mm sensitivity was 38%. and positive and negative predictive values were 38 and 87% For BTD >= 30 mm. the values were 19, 50, and 85% Observed/expected BTD ROC curve showed an area of 0 67, best cut-off value at 1 39, prediction values were similar to those for BTD >= 25 mm Bowel dilatation was also significantly associated with lower rate of primary surgical closure. longer period to full oral feeding, and prolonged hospital stay Conclusions Bowel dilatation demonstrated up to 3 weeks before delivery is a predictor of intestinal complications and is associated with lower late of primary surgical closure, longer period to achieve full oral feeding. and hospital stay Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Endometrial leukemia inhibitory factor as a predictor of pregnancy after in vitro fertilization

Objective: To determine whether there is an association between endometrial expression of leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF) in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle preceding in vitro fertilization (IVF) and treatment outcome. Methods: Biopsy specimens from the endometria of 52 women in the luteal. phase were immunostained against LIF Embryo culture and transfer were done according to standard procedures. Results: Clinical pregnancy occurred in 39% of the women following IVF, and strong endometrial immunohistochemical staining for LIF was associated with pregnancy (P=0.01). The women with a strong LIF expression had a 6.4-fold higher chance of becoming pregnant than those with weaker intensities (P=0.005). Conclusion: Endometrial expression of LIF during the luteal phase can be used as a predictor of IVF success. (C) 2008 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.