Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture Is Predicted by Measures of Solar Activity.

OBJECTIVE: The cause precipitating intracranial aneurysm rupture remains unknown in many cases. It has been observed that aneurysm ruptures are clustered in time, but the trigger mechanism remains obscure. Because solar activity has been associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, we decided to study its association to aneurysm rupture in the Swiss population. METHODS: Patient data were extracted from the Swiss SOS database, at time of analysis covering 918 consecutive patients with angiography-proven aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage treated at 7 Swiss neurovascular centers between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011. The daily rupture frequency (RF) was correlated to the absolute amount and the change in various parameters of interest representing continuous measurements of solar activity (radioflux [F10.7 index], solar proton flux, solar flare occurrence, planetary K-index/planetary A-index, Space Environment Services Center [SESC] sunspot number and sunspot area) using Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS: During the period of interest, there were 517 days without recorded aneurysm rupture. There were 398, 139, 27, 12, 1, and 1 days with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 ruptures per day. Poisson regression analysis demonstrated a significant correlation of F10.7 index and RF (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.006303; standard error (SE) 0.0013201; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.003719-1.008894; P < 0.001), according to which every 1-unit increase of the F10.7 index increased the count for an aneurysm to rupture by 0.63%. A likewise statistically significant relationship of both the SESC sunspot number (IRR 1.003413; SE 0.0007913; 95% CI 1.001864-1.004965; P < 0.001) and the sunspot area (IRR 1.000419; SE 0.0000866; 95% CI 1.000249-1.000589; P < 0.001) emerged. All other variables analyzed showed no significant correlation with RF. CONCLUSIONS: We found greater radioflux, SESC sunspot number, and sunspot area to be associated with an increased count of aneurysm rupture. The clinical meaningfulness of this statistical association must be interpreted carefully and future studies are warranted to rule out a type-1 error.

The ADO Index as a Predictor of Two-Year Mortality in General Practice-Based Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS: Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS: The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Bidirectional relationship between the Body Mass Index and Substance Use in Young Men

BACKGROUND: Obesity and substance use are major concern in young people. This study explored the bidirectional longitudinal relationships between the body mass index (BMI) of young men and their use of: 1) four classes of non-medical prescription drugs; 2) alcohol; 3) tobacco; and 4) cannabis. METHODS: Baseline and follow-up data from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors were used (n=5,007). A cross-lagged panel model, complemented by probit models as sensitivity analysis, was run to determine the bidirectional relationships between BMI and substance use. Alcohol was assessed using risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD); tobacco, using daily smoking; and cannabis, using hazardous cannabis use (defined as twice-weekly or more cannabis use). Non-medical prescription drugs use (NMPDU) included opioid analgesics, sedatives/sleeping pills, anxiolytics and stimulants. RESULTS: Different associations were found between BMI and substance use. Only RSOD (β= -.053, p=.005) and NMPDU of anxiolytics (β=.040, p=.020) at baseline significantly predicted BMI at follow-up. Baseline RSOD predicted a lower BMI at follow-up while baseline NMPDU of anxiolytics predicted higher BMI at follow-up. Furthermore, BMI at baseline significantly predicted daily smoking (β=.050, p=.007) and hazardous cannabis use (β=.058, p=.030). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest different associations between BMI and the use of various substances by young men. However, only RSOD and NMPDU of anxiolytics predicted BMI, whereas BMI predicted daily smoking and hazardous cannabis use.

Quantitative structure-retention relationships analysis of retention index of essential oils

Genetic algorithm and multiple linear regression (GA-MLR), partial least square (GA-PLS), kernel PLS (GA-KPLS) and Levenberg-Marquardt artificial neural network (L-M ANN) techniques were used to investigate the correlation between retention index (RI) and descriptors for 116 diverse compounds in essential oils of six Stachys species. The correlation coefficient LGO-CV (Q²) between experimental and predicted RI for test set by GA-MLR, GA-PLS, GA-KPLS and L-M ANN was 0.886, 0.912, 0.937 and 0.964, respectively. This is the first research on the QSRR of the essential oil compounds against the RI using the GA-KPLS and L-M ANN.

PREDICTING THE BOILING POINT OF PCDD/Fs BY THE QSPR METHOD BASED ON THE MOLECULAR DISTANCE-EDGE VECTOR INDEX

The quantitative structure property relationship (QSPR) for the boiling point (Tb) of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) was investigated. The molecular distance-edge vector (MDEV) index was used as the structural descriptor. The quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb was modeled by using multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), respectively. Leave-one-out cross validation and external validation were carried out to assess the prediction performance of the models developed. For the MLR method, the prediction root mean square relative error (RMSRE) of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.77 and 1.23, respectively. For the ANN method, the prediction RMSRE of leave-one-out cross validation and external validation was 1.65 and 1.16, respectively. A quantitative relationship between the MDEV index and Tb of PCDD/Fs was demonstrated. Both MLR and ANN are practicable for modeling this relationship. The MLR model and ANN model developed can be used to predict the Tb of PCDD/Fs. Thus, the Tb of each PCDD/F was predicted by the developed models.

Effects of metformin on the glycemic control, lipid profile, and arterial blood pressure of type 2 diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome already on insulin

Fifty-seven type 2 diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome and on insulin were assessed by a paired analysis before and 6 months after addition of metformin as combination therapy to evaluate the impact of the association on glycemic control, blood pressure, and lipid profile. This was a historical cohort study in which the files of type 2 diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome on insulin were reviewed. The body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, lipid profile, A1C level, fasting blood glucose level, daily dose of NPH insulin, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure were assessed in each patient before the start of metformin and 6 months after the initiation of combination therapy. Glycemic control significantly improved (P < 0.001) after the addition of metformin (1404.4 ± 565.5 mg/day), with 14% of the 57 patients reaching A1C levels up to 7%, and 53% reaching values up to 8%. There was a statistically significant reduction (P < 0.05) of total cholesterol (229.0 ± 29.5 to 214.2 ± 25.0 mg/dL), BMI (30.7 ± 5.4 to 29.0 ± 4.0 kg/m²), waist circumference (124.6 ± 11.7 to 117.3 ± 9.3 cm), and daily necessity of insulin. The reduction of total cholesterol occurred independently of the reductions of A1C (9.65 ± 1.03 to 8.18 ± 1.01%) and BMI and the reduction of BMI and WC did not interfere with the improvement of A1C. In conclusion, our study showed the efficacy of the administration of metformin and insulin simultaneously without negative effects. No changes were detected in HDL-cholesterol or blood pressure.

Association of body mass index with disease severity and prognosis in patients with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis

The objective of this observational, multicenter study was to evaluate the association of body mass index (BMI) with disease severity and prognosis in patients with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. A total of 339 patients (197 females, 142 males) diagnosed with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis by high-resolution computed tomography were classified into four groups: underweight (BMI<18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5≤BMI<25.0 kg/m2), overweight (25.0≤BMI<30.0 kg/m2), and obese (BMI≥30.0 kg/m2). Clinical variables expressing disease severity were recorded, and acute exacerbations, hospitalizations, and survival rates were estimated during the follow-up period. The mean BMI was 21.90 kg/m2. The underweight group comprised 28.61% of all patients. BMI was negatively correlated with acute exacerbations, C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, radiographic extent of bronchiectasis, and chronic colonization by P. aeruginosa and positively correlated with pulmonary function indices. BMI was a significant predictor of hospitalization risk independent of relevant covariates. The 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-year cumulative survival rates were 94%, 86%, 81%, and 73%, respectively. Survival rates decreased with decreasing BMI (χ2=35.16, P<0.001). The arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure, inspiratory capacity, age, BMI, and predicted percentage of forced expiratory volume in 1 s independently predicted survival in the Cox proportional hazard model. In conclusion, an underweight status was highly prevalent among patients with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. Patients with a lower BMI were prone to developing more acute exacerbations, worse pulmonary function, amplified systemic inflammation, and chronic colonization by P. aeruginosa. BMI was a major determinant of hospitalization and death risks. BMI should be considered in the routine assessment of patients with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

UV index measurement and model agreement: uncertainties and limitations

En les últimes dècades, l'increment dels nivells de radiació solar ultraviolada (UVR) que arriba a la Terra (principalment degut a la disminució d'ozó estratosfèric) juntament amb l'augment detectat en malalties relacionades amb l'exposició a la UVR, ha portat a un gran volum d'investigacions sobre la radiació solar en aquesta banda i els seus efectes en els humans. L'índex ultraviolat (UVI), que ha estat adoptat internacionalment, va ser definit amb el propòsit d'informar al públic general sobre els riscos d'exposar el cos nu a la UVR i per tal d'enviar missatges preventius. L'UVI es va definir inicialment com el valor màxim diari. No obstant, el seu ús actual s'ha ampliat i té sentit referir-se a un valor instantani o a una evolució diària del valor d'UVI mesurat, modelitzat o predit. El valor concret d'UVI està afectat per la geometria Sol-Terra, els núvols, l'ozó, els aerosols, l'altitud i l'albedo superficial. Les mesures d'UVI d'alta qualitat són essencials com a referència i per estudiar tendències a llarg termini; es necessiten també tècniques acurades de modelització per tal d'entendre els factors que afecten la UVR, per predir l'UVI i com a control de qualitat de les mesures. És d'esperar que les mesures més acurades d'UVI s'obtinguin amb espectroradiòmetres. No obstant, com que els costs d'aquests dispositius són elevats, és més habitual trobar dades d'UVI de radiòmetres eritemàtics (de fet, la majoria de les xarxes d'UVI estan equipades amb aquest tipus de sensors). Els millors resultats en modelització s'obtenen amb models de transferència radiativa de dispersió múltiple quan es coneix bé la informació d'entrada. No obstant, habitualment no es coneix informació d'entrada, com per exemple les propietats òptiques dels aerosols, la qual cosa pot portar a importants incerteses en la modelització. Sovint, s'utilitzen models més simples per aplicacions com ara la predicció d'UVI o l'elaboració de mapes d'UVI, ja que aquests són més ràpids i requereixen menys paràmetres d'entrada. Tenint en compte aquest marc de treball, l'objectiu general d'aquest estudi és analitzar l'acord al qual es pot arribar entre la mesura i la modelització d'UVI per condicions de cel sense núvols. D'aquesta manera, en aquest estudi es presenten comparacions model-mesura per diferents tècniques de modelització, diferents opcions d'entrada i per mesures d'UVI tant de radiòmetres eritemàtics com d'espectroradiòmeters. Com a conclusió general, es pot afirmar que la comparació model-mesura és molt útil per detectar limitacions i estimar incerteses tant en les modelitzacions com en les mesures. Pel que fa a la modelització, les principals limitacions que s'han trobat és la falta de coneixement de la informació d'aerosols considerada com a entrada dels models. També, s'han trobat importants diferències entre l'ozó mesurat des de satèl·lit i des de la superfície terrestre, la qual cosa pot portar a diferències importants en l'UVI modelitzat. PTUV, una nova i simple parametrització pel càlcul ràpid d'UVI per condicions de cel serens, ha estat desenvolupada en base a càlculs de transferència radiativa. La parametrització mostra una bona execució tant respecte el model base com en comparació amb diverses mesures d'UVI. PTUV ha demostrat la seva utilitat per aplicacions particulars com ara l'estudi de l'evolució anual de l'UVI per un cert lloc (Girona) i la composició de mapes d'alta resolució de valors d'UVI típics per un territori concret (Catalunya). En relació a les mesures, es constata que és molt important saber la resposta espectral dels radiòmetres eritemàtics per tal d'evitar grans incerteses a la mesura d'UVI. Aquest instruments, si estan ben caracteritzats, mostren una bona comparació amb els espectroradiòmetres d'alta qualitat en la mesura d'UVI. Les qüestions més importants respecte les mesures són la calibració i estabilitat a llarg termini. També, s'ha observat un efecte de temperatura en el PTFE, un material utilitzat en els difusors en alguns instruments, cosa que potencialment podria tenir implicacions importants en el camp experimental. Finalment, i pel que fa a les comparacions model-mesura, el millor acord s'ha trobat quan es consideren mesures d'UVI d'espectroradiòmetres d'alta qualitat i s'usen models de transferència radiativa que consideren les millors dades disponibles pel que fa als paràmetres òptics d'ozó i aerosols i els seus canvis en el temps. D'aquesta manera, l'acord pot ser tan alt dins un 0.1º% en UVI, i típicament entre menys d'un 3%. Aquest acord es veu altament deteriorat si s'ignora la informació d'aerosols i depèn de manera important del valor d'albedo de dispersió simple dels aerosols. Altres dades d'entrada del model, com ara l'albedo superficial i els perfils d'ozó i temperatura introdueixen una incertesa menor en els resultats de modelització.

Labeling index in pituitary adenomas evaluated by means of MIB-1: is there a prognostic role? A critical review

Objective: The present article presents an overview of the literature, and analyses the methods and the primary questions related to assessment of proliferation index using the Ki-67/MIB-1 labeling index in pituitary adenomas. Although atypical adenomas are characterized by their atypical morphological features by an elevated mitotic index, a Ki-67 (MIB-1) labeling index greater than 3% and extensive nuclear staining for p53, use of the proliferation index (LI) of pituitary adenomas in assessing the degree of tumor aggressiveness is a controversial topic in the literature, and there are disparate results involving many studies.Methods: A review of literature was carried out to correlate the role of Ki-67 LI and its correlation with clinical findings, tumor size, invasiveness, recurrence, adenoma subtype, adenoma doubling time, and pituitary carcinomas is addressed. Results: The prognosis cannot be predicted on the basis of the Ki-67 LI alone. Although there is no direct relation between Ki-67 LI and some of these variables and controversial data were found regarding some topics, our review justify the use of Ki-67 in the analysis of pituitary adenomas as an additional information for clinical decision.Conclusion: Although assessment of proliferative may be helpful in predicting subsequent tumor recurrence or invasiveness, there are many other important and as yet unidentified factors pituitary tumors. It is clear that further research is needed to clarify these molecular mechanisms to predict those with a potentially poor clinical outcome.

The taxonomic distinctness of macroinvertebrate communities of Atlantic Forest streams cannot be predicted by landscape and climate variables, but traditional biodiversity indices can

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Carbohydrate- and lipid-enriched meals acutely disrupt glycemic homeostasis by inducing transient insulin resistance in rats

Chronic intake of high-carbohydrate or high-lipid diets is a well-known insulin resistance inducer. This study investigates the immediate effect (1-6 h) of a carbohydrate-or lipid-enriched meal on insulin sensitivity. Fasted rats were refed with standard, carbohydrate-enriched (C), or lipid-enriched (L) meal. Plasma insulin, glucose, and non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) were measured at 1, 2, 4, and 6 h of refeeding. The glucose-insulin index showed that either carbohydrates or lipids decreased insulin sensitivity at 2 h of refeeding. At this time point, insulin tolerance tests (ITTs) and glucose tolerance tests (GTTs) detected insulin resistance in C rats, while GTT confirmed it in L rats. Reduced glycogen and phosphorylated AKT and GSK3 content revealed hepatic insulin resistance in C rats. Reduced glucose uptake in skeletal muscle subjected to the fatty acid concentration that mimics the high NEFA level of L rats suggests insulin resistance in these animals is mainly in muscle. In conclusion, carbohydrate-or lipid-enriched meals acutely disrupt glycemic homeostasis, inducing a transient insulin resistance, which seems to involve liver and skeletal muscle, respectively. Thus, the insulin resistance observed when those types of diets are chronically consumed may be an evolution of repeated episodes of this transient insulin resistance.

Effects of Gastric Bypass Surgery in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Only Mild Obesity

OBJECTIVE-Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) ameliorates type 2 diabetes in severely obese patients through mechanisms beyond just weight loss, and it may benefit less obese diabetic patients. We determined the long-term impact of RYGB on patients with diabetes and only class 1 obesity. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-Sixty-six consecutively selected diabetic patients with BMI 30-35 kg/m(2) underwent RYGB in a tertiary-care hospital and were prospectively studied for up to 6 years (median 5 years [range 1-6]), with 100% follow-up. Main outcome measures were safety and the percentage of patients experiencing diabetes remission (HbA(1c) <6.5% without diabetes medication). RESULTS-Participants had severe, longstanding diabetes, with disease duration 12.5 +/- 7.4 years and HbA(1c) 9.7 +/- 1.5%, despite insulin and/or oral diabetes medication usage in everyone. For up to 6 years following RYGB, durable diabetes remission occurred in 88% of cases, with glycemic improvement in 11%. Mean HbA(1c) fell from 9.7 +/- 1.5 to 5.9 +/- 0.1% (P < 0.001), despite diabetes medication cessation in the majority. Weight loss failed to correlate with several measures of improved glucose homeostasis, consistent with weight-independent antidiabetes mechanisms of RYGB. C-peptide responses to glucose increased substantially, suggesting improved beta-cell function. There was no mortality, major surgical morbidity, or excessive weight loss. Hypertension and dyslipidemia also improved, yielding 50-84% reductions in predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risks of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease and stroke. CONCLUSIONS-This is the largest, longest-term study examining RYGB for diabetic patients without severe obesity. RYGB safely and effectively ameliorated diabetes and associated comorbidities, reducing cardiovascular risk, in patients with a BMI of only 30-35 kg/m(2).

Does body mass index in childhood predict restraint eating in early adolescence?

The aim of this study was (1) to examine whether childhood BMI is a significant predictor of restrained eating in preadolescents, (2) to investigate gender differences in restrained and emotional eating, and (3) to determine whether emotional problems, and body esteem were related to eating problems of preadolescents. In this longitudinal study with two measurement points, data from 428 children (50% female) were used. At time 1 (t1) children were on average 5.9 years old. BMI was assessed using objective measures. At time 2 (t2) participants were 12 years old. The adolescents and their parents completed questionnaires assessing restrained and emotional eating, body esteem, emotional problems, and BMI. Multiple regression analysis showed that restrained eating was significantly predicted by t1 BMI, by change in BMI between t1 and t2, and t2 body esteem. Emotional eating was, as expected, not predicted by t1 BMI, but associated with t2 body esteem and t2 emotional problems. Gender was not a significant predictor. The stability of BMI between childhood and preadolescence and its ability to predict restrained eating suggests that it is important to start prevention of overweight, body dissatisfaction and disordered eating at an early age

The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture Is Predicted by Measures of Solar Activity.

OBJECTIVE The cause precipitating intracranial aneurysm rupture remains unknown in many cases. It has been observed that aneurysm ruptures are clustered in time, but the trigger mechanism remains obscure. Because solar activity has been associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, we decided to study its association to aneurysm rupture in the Swiss population. METHODS Patient data were extracted from the Swiss SOS database, at time of analysis covering 918 consecutive patients with angiography-proven aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage treated at 7 Swiss neurovascular centers between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011. The daily rupture frequency (RF) was correlated to the absolute amount and the change in various parameters of interest representing continuous measurements of solar activity (radioflux [F10.7 index], solar proton flux, solar flare occurrence, planetary K-index/planetary A-index, Space Environment Services Center [SESC] sunspot number and sunspot area) using Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS During the period of interest, there were 517 days without recorded aneurysm rupture. There were 398, 139, 27, 12, 1, and 1 days with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 ruptures per day. Poisson regression analysis demonstrated a significant correlation of F10.7 index and RF (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.006303; standard error (SE) 0.0013201; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.003719-1.008894; P < 0.001), according to which every 1-unit increase of the F10.7 index increased the count for an aneurysm to rupture by 0.63%. A likewise statistically significant relationship of both the SESC sunspot number (IRR 1.003413; SE 0.0007913; 95% CI 1.001864-1.004965; P < 0.001) and the sunspot area (IRR 1.000419; SE 0.0000866; 95% CI 1.000249-1.000589; P < 0.001) emerged. All other variables analyzed showed no significant correlation with RF. CONCLUSIONS We found greater radioflux, SESC sunspot number, and sunspot area to be associated with an increased count of aneurysm rupture. The clinical meaningfulness of this statistical association must be interpreted carefully and future studies are warranted to rule out a type-1 error.