The distribution of badnavirus-infected Musa germplasm from the International Transit Centre, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium

Bioversity International is reviewing its moratorium on the distribution of virus-infected Musa germplasm from the International Transit Centre (ITC), and the ProMusa Crop Protection Working Group has been invited to comment on policy changes. This paper was written to form a basis of discussion among the working group members during the ISHS/ProMusa symposium. It argues that the distribution of Musa germplasm should be guided by the International Plant Protection Convention, which states that it is the responsibility of the importing country, not the exporter, to impose the phytosanitary measures. There may be special circumstances where the release of badnavirus-infected germplasm from the ITC could be justified.

Mammographic mass-screening and future breast cancer burden in Finland

A population-based early detection program for breast cancer has been in progress in Finland since 1987. According to regulations during the study period 1987-2001, free of charge mammography screening was offered every second year to women aged 50-59 years. Recently, the screening service was decided to be extended to age group 50-69. However, the scope of the program is still frequently discussed in public and information about potential impacts of mass-screening practice changes on future breast cancer burden is required. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to present methodologies for taking into account the mass-screening invitation information in breast cancer burden predictions, and to present alternative breast cancer incidence and mortality predictions up to 2012 based on scenarios of the future screening policy. The focus of this work is not on assessing the absolute efficacy but the effectiveness of mass-screening, and, by utilizing the data on invitations, on showing the estimated impacts of changes in an existing screening program on the short-term predictions. The breast cancer mortality predictions are calculated using a model that combines incidence, cause-specific and other cause survival on individual level. The screening invitation data are incorporated into modeling of breast cancer incidence and survival by dividing the program into separate components (first and subsequent rounds and years within them, breaks, and post screening period) and defining a variable that gives the component of the screening program. The incidence is modeled using a Poisson regression approach and the breast cancer survival by applying a parametric mixture cure model, where the patient population is allowed to be a combination of cured and uncured patients. The patients risk to die from other causes than breast cancer is allowed to differ from that of a corresponding general population group and to depend on age and follow-up time. As a result, the effects of separate components of the screening program on incidence, proportion of cured and the survival of the uncured are quantified. According to the predictions, the impacts of policy changes, like extending the program from age group 50-59 to 50-69, are clearly visible on incidence while the effects on mortality in age group 40-74 are minor. Extending the screening service would increase the incidence of localized breast cancers but decrease the rates of non-localized breast cancer. There were no major differences between mortality predictions yielded by alternative future scenarios of the screening policy: Any policy change would have at the most a 3.0% reduction on overall breast cancer mortality compared to continuing the current practice in the near future.

Land leasing, land degradation and agricultural productivity in Finland

This study analysed whether the land tenure insecurity problem has led to a decline in long-term land improvements (liming and phosphorus fertilization) under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Nordic production conditions in European Union (EU) countries such as Finland. The results suggests that under traditional cash lease contracts, which are encouraged by the existing land leasing regulations and agricultural subsidy programs, the land tenure insecurity problem on leased land reduces land improvements that have a long pay-back period. In particular, soil pH was found to be significantly lower on land cultivated under a lease contract compared to land owned by the farmers themselves. The results also indicate that land improvements could not be reversed by land markets, because land owners would otherwise have carried out land improvements even if not farming by themselves. To reveal the causality between land tenure and land improvements, the dynamic optimisation problem was solved by a stochastic dynamic programming routine with known parameters for one-period returns and transition equations. The model parameters represented Finnish soil quality and production conditions. The decision rules were solved for alternative likelihood scenarios over the continuation of the fixed-term lease contract. The results suggest that as the probability of non-renewal of the lease contract increases, farmers quickly reduce investments in irreversible land improvements and, thereafter, yields gradually decline. The simulations highlighted the observed trends of a decline in land improvements on land parcels that are cultivated under lease contracts. Land tenure has resulted in the neglect of land improvement in Finland. This study aimed to analyze whether these challenges could be resolved by a tax policy that encourages land sales. Using Finnish data, real estate tax and a temporal relaxation on the taxation of capital gains showed some potential for the restructuring of land ownership. Potential sellers who could not be revealed by traditional logit models were identified with the latent class approach. Those landowners with an intention to sell even without a policy change were sensitive to temporal relaxation in the taxation of capital gains. In the long term, productivity and especially productivity growth are necessary conditions for the survival of farms and the food industry in Finland. Technical progress was found to drive the increase in productivity. The scale had only a moderate effect and for the whole study period (1976–2006) the effect was close to zero. Total factor productivity (TFP) increased, depending on the model, by 0.6–1.7% per year. The results demonstrated that the increase in productivity was hindered by the policy changes introduced in 1995. It is also evidenced that the increase in land leasing is connected to these policy changes. Land institutions and land tenure questions are essential in agricultural and rural policies on all levels, from local to international. Land ownership and land titles are commonly tied to fundamental political, economic and social questions. A fair resolution calls for innovative and new solutions both on national and international levels. However, this seems to be a problem when considering the application of EU regulations to member states inheriting divergent landownership structures and farming cultures. The contribution of this study is in describing the consequences of fitting EU agricultural policy to Finnish agricultural land tenure conditions and heritage.

Factors affecting farmland prices in Finland

The purpose of the study was to analyse factors affecting the differences in land prices between regions. The key issue was to find out the policy effects on farmland prices. In addition to comprehensive literature review, a theoretical analysis as well as modern panel and spatial econometric techniques were utilized. The study clearly pointed out the importance of taking into account the possible spatial dependence. The data were exceptionally large, comprising more than 6 000 observations. Thus, it allowed a thorough econometric estimation including the possibility to take into account the spatial nature of the data. This study supports the view that there are many other factors that affect farmland prices besides pure agricultural returns. It was also found that the support clearly affects land prices. However, rather than assuming the discount rates for support and market returns to be similar, the rough analysis refers to the discount rate for support being a little lower. If this were true it would indicate that farmers rely more on support income than market returns. The results support the view presented in literature that land values are more responsive to government payments when these payments are perceived to be permanent. An important result of this study is that the structural differences between regions and the structural change in agriculture seemed to have a considerable role in affecting land prices. Firstly, the present structure affects the competition in the land market: the more dense farms are in the region the more there are potential buyers, and the land price increases. Secondly, the change in farm structure (especially in animal husbandry) connected to the policy changes that increase area-based support affects land prices. The effect comes from two sources. Growing farms need more land for the manure, and the proportion of retiring farmers may be lower. The introduction of the manure density variable proved to be an efficient way to aggregate the otherwise very difficult task of taking into account the environmental pressure caused by structural change in animal husbandry. Finally, infrastructure also has a very important role in determining the price level of agricultural land. If other industries are prospering in the surrounding area, agricultural viability also seems to improve. The non-farm opportunities offered to farm families make continuing and developing farming more tempting.

Interventions, policies, and future research directions in partner violence

There have been sweeping changes in policy and practice on violence against intimate partners over the past several decades. New laws, policies, programs, and research funding have shaped the literature on this topic as well as the contours of violence itself. A substantial portion of the contemporary research literature is devoted to the policies and interventions that affect intimate partner violence. This chapter will first review key policy changes that have shaped interventions in violence against intimate partners. Second, it will map major areas of research on policy and intervention in violence and abuse. Finally, it will propose directions for future research.

Design based research methodology for teaching with technology in English

Design based research (DBR) is an appropriate method for small scale educational research projects involving collaboration between teachers, students and researchers. It is particularly useful in collaborative projects where an intervention is implemented and evaluated in a grounded context. The intervention can be technological, or a new program required by policy changes. It can be applied to educational contexts, such as when English teachers undertake higher degree research projects in their own or others’ sites; or for academics working collaboratively as researchers with teams of teachers. In the case described here the paper shows that DBR is designed to make a difference in the real world contexts in which occurs.

Urban growth dilemmas and solutions in China: Looking forward to 2030

China’s urbanization and industrialization are occupying farmland in large amounts, which is strongly driven by land finance regime. This is due to the intensified regional/local competition for manufacturing investment opportunities that push local governments to expropriate farmland at low prices while lease land at high market value to property developers. The additional revenue obtained in this way, termed financial increment in land values, can drive local economic growth, and provide associated infrastructure and other public services. At the same time, however, a floating population of large numbers of inadequately compensated land-lost farmers, although unable to become citizens, have to migrate into the urban areas for work, causing overheated employment and housing markets, with rocketing unaffordable housing prices. This, together with various micro factors relating to the party/state’s promotion/evaluation system play an essential role leading to some serious economic, environment and social consequences, e.g., on migrant welfare, the displacement of peasants and the loss of land resources that requires immediate attention. Our question is: whether such type of urbanization is sustainable? What are the mechanisms behind such a phenomenal urbanization process? From the perspective of institutionalism, this paper aims to investigate the institutional background of the urban growth dilemma and solutions in urban China and to introduce further an inter-regional game theoretical framework to indicate why the present urbanization pattern is unsustainable. Looking forward to 2030, paradigm policy changes are made from the triple consideration of floating population, social security and urban environmental pressures. This involves: (1) changing land increment based finance regime into land stock finance system; (2) the citizenization of migrant workers with affordable housing, and; (3) creating a more enlightened local government officer appraisal system to better take into account societal issues such as welfare and beyond.

A Strategy for Conserving the Biodiversity of the Uttara Kannada District in South India

Taking the various values ascribed to biodiversity as its point of departure rather many years ago, the present study aims at deriving a conservation strategy for Uttara Kannada. This hilly district, with the highest proportion of its area under forests in South India, is divided into five ecological zones: coastal, northern evergreen, southern evergreen, moist deciduous, and dry deciduous. The heavily-populated coastal zone includes mangrove forests and estuarine wetlands. The evergreen forests are particularly rich in the diversity of plant species which they support - including wild relatives of a number of cultivated plants. They also serve a vital function in watershed conservation. The moist deciduous forests are rich in bird species; both moist and dry deciduous forests include a number of freshwater ponds and lakes that support a high diversity of aquatic birds.Reviewing the overall distribution of biodiversity, we identify specific localities - including estuaries, evergreen forests, and moist deciduous forests - which should be set aside as Nature reserves. These larger reserves must be complemented by a network of traditionally-protected sacred groves and sacred trees that are distributed throughout the district and that protect today, for instance, the finest surviving stand of dipterocarp trees.We also spell out the necessary policy-changes in overall development strategy that should stem the ongoing decimation of biodiversity. These include (1) revitalizing community-based systems of sustainable management of village forests and protection of sacred groves and trees; (2) reorienting the usage-pattern of reserve forests from production of a limited variety of timber and softwood species for industrial consumers, to production of a larger diversity of non-wood forest produce of commercial value to support the rural economy; (3) utilizing marginal lands under private ownership for generating industrial wood supplies; and (4) provision of incentives for in situ maintenance of land-races of cultivated plants - especially evergreen, fruit-yielding trees - by the local people.It is proposed that this broad framework be now taken to the local communities, and that an action-plan be developed on the basis of inputs provided - and initiatives taken - by them.

STREAM Journal, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp 1-17. October-December 2005

CONTENTS: Seaweed culture and farmer incomes in Bekasi, Indonesia, by A. Mauksit L. Maala and Aniza Suspita. Significant change for a self-help group, by Nguyen Song Ha. Conflict over fishing in Jharkhand, by Ashish Kumar. Two worlds across a highway, by William Savage. Critical steps in preparing coastal communities for effective policy changes, by Josephine P. Savaris. New guidelines on data collection and iniormation sharing for co-management, by Charlotte Howard.

Marine ornamentals trade in the Philippines and options for its poor stakeholders

The objective of this project in the Philippines is to promote the development of policy changes and other actions related to the trade in ornamental fish with Europe which support poor people’s livelihoods. [PDF contains 118 pages.]

Tendência temporal do índice de massa corporal em alistados do Brasil (1980-2005)

Apesar da crescente prevalência da obesidade em países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, há pouca evidência da associação com fatores ambientais. Objetivos: Investigar a evolução temporal do IMC em jovens alistados do sexo masculino de 18 anos no Brasil entre 1980 e 2005; identificar pontos específicos de maior variância na série temporal e comparar pontos específicos no tempo, a evolução temporal do IMC com as mudanças socioeconômicas no Brasil. Métodos: O presente estudo explorou uma série temporal de 26 anos em homens brasileiros que se alistaram no período de 1980 a 2005. A amostra compreendeu cerca de 35-40% de todos os jovens brasileiros de 18 anos de idade. O peso corporal e a estatura foram obtidos no momento do exame médico durante o alistamento militar. Todas as mensurações antropométricas foram realizadas por pessoal especializado e treinado. As prevalências do sobrepeso e da obesidade foram calculadas com intervalos de confiança de 95%. Com a finalidade de testar a presença de heterocedasticidade na série do IMC, realizou-se o teste de Multiplicador de Lagrange (LM). Para os pontos no tempo, com oscilações acima da média do IMC, variáveis dummies foram testadas utilizando-se o modelo ARCH (Autoregressivo de Heterocedasticidade Condicionada), com um nível de significância de p <0,05. Para aqueles pontos no tempo com oscilações acima da média do IMC (anos de 1985, 1994 e 2000), variáveis dummy foram incluídos sob a hipótese foi de que a taxa de crescimento do IMC não fosse a mesma ao longo da série temporal. Para as possíveis explicações para os aumentos bruscos na curva do IMC, foram consideradas as alterações nos principais indicadores econômicos do Brasil (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística e Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada). Os fatores econômicos analisados foram: taxa de inflação anual, produção de alimentos, pobreza (%), o consumo de refrigerantes e o rendimento médio anual. Resultados: A prevalência de sobrepeso também passou de 4,5%, em 1980, para 12,5%, em 2005, um aumento de 2,6 vezes, enquanto a prevalência de obesidade aumentou de 0,5%, em 1980, para 1,9%, em 2005, um aumento de quase 300%, mas por comparação internacional estão abaixo da média. Particularmente em 1985-6 e 1994-5, houve um aumento acentuado e significativo do IMC. Em 1985-6, a média do IMC aumentou de 21,4 kg/m2 para 21,5 kg/m2 e, em 1994-5, a média do IMC médio aumentou de 21,7 kg/m2 para 21,9 kg/m2. Nesses dois pontos (1985-1986 e 1994-1995) ocorreram logo após duas grandes mudanças políticas econômicas que aumentaram o poder de compra da população. Em 1985-6, as mudanças foram principalmente relacionadas a fatores econômicos, tais como: a redução do nível de desigualdade social; aumento da renda familiar; redução da pobreza; o controle da inflação; aumento do tempo assistindo televisão e aumento do consumo de alimentos. Em 1994-5, além das mudanças no poder de compra, houve uma modificação na atividade física obrigatória nas escolas. Conclusão: O presente estudo mostrou um aumento abrupto da obesidade na população de homens jovens no Brasil em duas ocasiões durante esta série temporal (anos de 1985-6 e 1994-5), quando uma possível redução no gasto calórico e aumento do consumo de alimentos da população foram observados.

Somos todos mamíferos? Uma análise do discurso médico sobre o aleitamento materno.

Trabalho realizamos uma análise do discurso médico sobre o aleitamento materno, durante a década de oitenta, após a implementação do PNIAM, em 1981, a partir de pesquisas em artigos do Jornal de Pediatria, a fim de compreender como ocorreram as modificações discursivas e institucionais sobre este tema. Atualmente encontramos inúmeras pesquisas sobre aleitamento materno, frutos da valorização da amamentação pela sociedade. No entanto, nem sempre o aleitamento foi valorizado e incentivado como nos dias atuais. Ao longo da história, o discurso médico refletiu o contexto vigente e serviu de sustentação aos interesses políticos sociais e econômicos. Modificou-se como parte de um processo, de uma construção. A análise do jornal revelou o predomínio da lógica higienista, sustentada por um discurso biologicista que naturalizou e disseminou a ideia de superioridade do leite materno. Com o objetivo de convencer os profissionais, instituições e a própria mulher, encontramos posições que refletem, sobretudo, as repercussões sociais decorrentes da entrada da mulher no mercado de trabalho.

Supporting the case for “progressive universalism” in health visiting: Scottish mothers and health visitors’ perspectives on targeting and rationing health visiting services, with a focus on the Lothian Child Concern Model.

Aims. To explore parents and professionals’ experience of family assessment in health visiting (public health nursing), with a focus on the Lothian Child Concern Model (LCCM). Background. Health visitors (HVs) currently assess families as requiring core, additional or intensive support, and offer support at a corresponding level. The majority of families are assessed as core and receive no pro-active support beyond the early days. Previous assessment tools, consisting of checklists, have been criticised as being ineffective in identifying a range of health needs and unacceptable to parents and HVs. The LCCM model was developed and introduced in the study area to promote a partnership approach with parents and assess strengths as well as difficulties in parents’ capacity to care for their child. Methods. Qualitative methods were used. Ten mothers and twelve HVs took part in individual semi-structured interviews. Results. Most mothers were aware of the assessment process but some felt that they were not involved in the decision making process. Explaining the assessment process to parents is problematic and not all HVs do so. The assessment process was stressful for some mothers. HVs find the model useful for structuring and documenting the assessment process. Many believe that most families benefit from some support, using public health approaches. Families are often assessed as core because there are insufficient resources to support all those who meet the criteria of the additional category, and managers assess caseloads in terms of families with child protection concerns. Conclusions. The study findings support the concept of “progressive universalism” which provides a continuum of intensity of support to families, depending on need. Mothers would like better partnership working with HVs. Relevance to clinical practice. The study endorses proposed policy changes to re-establish the public health role of HVs and to lower the threshold for families to qualify for support.

The effects of copayment policies on adherence to prescription medicines in publicly insured populations

Introduction: Copayments for prescriptions are associated with decreased adherence to medicines resulting in increased health service utilisation, morbidity and mortality. In October 2010 a 50c copayment per prescription item was introduced on the General Medical Services (GMS) scheme in Ireland, the national public health insurance programme for low-income and older people. The copayment was increased to €1.50 per prescription item in January 2013. To date, the impact of these copayments on adherence to prescription medicines on the GMS scheme has not been assessed. Given that the GMS population comprises more than 40% of the Irish population, this presents an important public health problem. The aim of this thesis was to assess the impact of two prescription copayments, 50c and €1.50, on adherence to medicines.Methods: In Chapter 2 the published literature was systematically reviewed with meta-analysis to a) develop evidence on cost-sharing for prescriptions and adherence to medicines and b) develop evidence for an alternative policy option; removal of copayments. The core research question of this thesis was addressed by a large before and after longitudinal study, with comparator group, using the national pharmacy claims database. New users of essential and less-essential medicines were included in the study with sample sizes ranging from 7,007 to 136,111 individuals in different medication groups. Segmented regression was used with generalised estimating equations to allow for correlations between repeated monthly measurements of adherence. A qualitative study involving 24 individuals was conducted to assess patient attitudes towards the 50c copayment policy. The qualitative and quantitative findings were integrated in the discussion chapter of the thesis. The vast majority of the literature on this topic area is generated in North America, therefore a test of generalisability was carried out in Chapter 5 by comparing the impact of two similar copayment interventions on adherence, one in the U.S. and one in Ireland. The method used to measure adherence in Chapters 3 and 5 was validated in Chapter 6. Results: The systematic review with meta-analysis demonstrated an 11% (95% CI 1.09 to 1.14) increased odds of non-adherence when publicly insured populations were exposed to copayments. The second systematic review found moderate but variable improvements in adherence after removal/reduction of copayments in a general population. The core paper of this thesis found that both the 50c and €1.50 copayments on the GMS scheme were associated with larger reductions in adherence to less-essential medicines than essential medicines directly after the implementation of policies. An important exception to this pattern was observed; adherence to anti-depressant medications declined by a larger extent than adherence to other essential medicines after both copayments. The cross country comparison indicated that North American evidence on cost-sharing for prescriptions is not automatically generalisable to the Irish setting. Irish patients had greater immediate decreases of -5.3% (95% CI -6.9 to -3.7) and -2.8% (95% CI -4.9 to -0.7) in adherence to anti-hypertensives and anti-hyperlipidaemic medicines, respectively, directly after the policy changes, relative to their U.S. counterparts. In the long term, however, the U.S. and Irish populations had similar behaviours. The concordance study highlighted the possibility of a measurement bias occurring for the measurement of adherence to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in Chapter 3. Conclusions: This thesis has presented two reviews of international cost-sharing policies, an assessment of the generalisability of international evidence and both qualitative and quantitative examinations of cost-sharing policies for prescription medicines on the GMS scheme in Ireland. It was found that the introduction of a 50c copayment and its subsequent increase to €1.50 on the GMS scheme had a larger impact on adherence to less-essential medicines relative to essential medicines, with the exception of anti-depressant medications. This is in line with policy objectives to reduce moral hazard and is therefore demonstrative of the value of such policies. There are however some caveats. The copayment now stands at €2.50 per prescription item. The impact of this increase in copayment has yet to be assessed which is an obvious point for future research. Careful monitoring for adverse effects in socio-economically disadvantaged groups within the GMS population is also warranted. International evidence can be applied to the Irish setting to aid in future decision making in this area, but not without placing it in the local context first. Patients accepted the introduction of the 50c charge, however did voice concerns over a rising price. The challenge for policymakers is to find the ‘optimal copayment’ – whereby moral hazard is decreased, but access to essential chronic disease medicines that provide advantages at the population level is not deterred. This evidence presented in this thesis will be utilisable for future policy-making in Ireland.

Implications of shale gas development for climate change.

Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.