Predicting deadline tansgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution.

Daylighting design and simulation : ease of use analysis of digital tools for architects

Good daylighting design in buildings not only provides a comfortable luminous environment, but also delivers energy savings and comfortable and healthy environments for building occupants. Yet, there is still no consensus on how to assess what constitutes good daylighting design. Currently amongst building performance guidelines, Daylighting factors (DF) or minimum illuminance values are the standard; however, previous research has shown the shortcomings of these metrics. New computer software for daylighting analysis contains new more advanced metrics for daylighting (Climate Base Daylight Metrics-CBDM). Yet, these tools (new metrics or simulation tools) are not currently understood by architects and are not used within architectural firms in Australia. A survey of architectural firms in Brisbane showed the most relevant tools used by industry. The purpose of this paper is to assess and compare these computer simulation tools and new tools available architects and designers for daylighting. The tools are assessed in terms of their ease of use (e.g. previous knowledge required, complexity of geometry input, etc.), efficiency (e.g. speed, render capabilities, etc.) and outcomes (e.g. presentation of results, etc. The study shows tools that are most accessible for architects, are those that import a wide variety of files, or can be integrated into the current 3d modelling software or package. These software’s need to be able to calculate for point in times simulations, and annual analysis. There is a current need in these software solutions for an open source program able to read raw data (in the form of spreadsheets) and show that graphically within a 3D medium. Currently, development into plug-in based software’s are trying to solve this need through third party analysis, however some of these packages are heavily reliant and their host program. These programs however which allow dynamic daylighting simulation, which will make it easier to calculate accurate daylighting no matter which modelling platform the designer uses, while producing more tangible analysis today, without the need to process raw data.

Profiling event logs to configure risk indicators for process delays

Risk identification is one of the most challenging stages in the risk management process. Conventional risk management approaches provide little guidance and companies often rely on the knowledge of experts for risk identification. In this paper we demonstrate how risk indicators can be used to predict process delays via a method for configuring so-called Process Risk Indicators(PRIs). The method learns suitable configurations from past process behaviour recorded in event logs. To validate the approach we have implemented it as a plug-in of the ProM process mining framework and have conducted experiments using various data sets from a major insurance company.

Impacts of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies on electricity market operations

The Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) concept is based on the newly developed and marketed technologies of hybrid petrol-electric vehicles, most notably represented by the Toyota Prius, in combination with significant structural changes to the world's energy economy, and the growing strain on electricity networks. The work described in this presentation focuses on the market and economic impacts of grid connected vehicles. We investigate price reduction effects and transmission system expansion cost reduction. We modelled a large numbers of plug-in-hybrid vehicle batteries by aggregating them into a virtual pumped-storage power station at the Australian national electricity market's (NEM) region level. The virtual power station concept models a centralised control for dispatching (operating) the aggregated electricity supply/demand capabilities of a large number of vehicles and their batteries. The actual level of output could be controlled by human or automated agents to either charge or discharge from/into the power grid. As previously mentioned the impacts of widespread deployments of this technology are likely to be economic, environmental and physical.

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

Dispatch strategy of PHEVs to mitigate selected patterns of seasonally varying outputs from renewable generation

Rapid development of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) brings new challenges and opportunities to the power industry. A large number of idle PHEVs can potentially be employed to form a distributed energy storage system for supporting renewable generation. To reduce the negative effects of unsteady renewable generation outputs, a stochastic optimization-based dispatch model capable of handling uncertain outputs of PHEVs and renewable generation is formulated in this paper. The mathematical expectations, second-order original moments, and variances of wind and photovoltaic (PV) generation outputs are derived analytically. Incorporated all the derived uncertainties, a novel generation shifting objective is proposed. The cross-entropy (CE) method is employed to solve this optimal dispatch model. Multiple patterns of renewable generation depending on seasons and renewable market shares are investigated. The feasibility and efficiency of the developed optimal dispatch model, as well as the CE method, are demonstrated with a 33-node distribution system.

Wireless Power Transfer (WPT) for electric vehicles (EVs) - present and future trends

100 year old gasoline engine technology vehicles have now become one of the major contributors of greenhouse gases. Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) have been proposed to achieve environmental friendly transportation. Even though the PEV usage is currently increasing, a technology breakthrough would be required to overcome battery related drawbacks. Although battery technology is evolving, drawbacks inherited with batteries such as; cost, size, weight, slower charging characteristic and low energy density would still be dominating constrains for development of EVs. Furthermore, PEVs have not been accepted as preferred choice by many consumers due to charging related issues. To address battery related limitations, the concept of dynamic Wireless Power Transfer (WPT) enabled EVs have been proposed in which EV is being charged while it is in motion. WPT enabled infrastructure has to be employed to achieve dynamic EV charging concept. The weight of the battery pack can be reduced as the required energy storage is lower if the vehicle can be powered wirelessly while driving. Stationary WPT charging where EV is charged wirelessly when it is stopped, is simpler than dynamic WPT in terms of design complexity. However, stationary WPT does not increase vehicle range compared to wired-PEVs. State-of-art WPT technology for future transportation is discussed in this chapter. Analysis of the WPT system and its performance indices are introduced. Modelling the WPT system using different methods such as equivalent circuit theory, two port network theory and coupled mode theory is described illustrating their own merits in Sect. 2.3. Both stationary and dynamic WPT for EV applications are illustrated in Sect. 2.4. Design challenges and optimization directions are analysed in Sect. 2.5. Adaptive tuning techniques such as adaptive impedance matching and frequency tuning are also discussed. A case study for optimizing resonator design is presented in Sect. 2.6. Achievements by the research community is introduced highlighting directions for future research.

Scheme of squares: Part II. Systems formalism for sinusoidal perturbations

We extend here the formalism developed in Part I (for the potentiostatic response) to the admittance analysis of the scheme of squares. The results are applicable, as before, to several configurations of the electrode such as the rotating disk or the planar. All that one has to do is “to plug in” the appropriate matrices relating the interfacial concentrations to the fluxes.

DNP3 network scanning and reconnaissance for critical infrastructure

The Distributed Network Protocol v3.0 (DNP3) is one of the most widely used protocols to control national infrastructure. The move from point-to-point serial connections to Ethernet-based network architectures, allowing for large and complex critical infrastructure networks. However, networks and con- figurations change, thus auditing tools are needed to aid in critical infrastructure network discovery. In this paper we present a series of intrusive techniques used for reconnaissance on DNP3 critical infrastructure. Our algorithms will discover DNP3 outstation slaves along with their DNP3 addresses, their corresponding master, and class object configurations. To validate our presented DNP3 reconnaissance algorithms and demonstrate it’s practicality, we present an implementation of a software tool using a DNP3 plug-in for Scapy. Our implementation validates the utility of our DNP3 reconnaissance technique. Our presented techniques will be useful for penetration testing, vulnerability assessments and DNP3 network discovery.

Fragment Finder 2.0: a computing server to identify structurally similar fragments

Fragment Finder 2.0 is a web-based interactive computing server which can be used to retrieve structurally similar protein fragments from 25 and 90% nonredundant data sets. The computing server identifies structurally similar fragments using the protein backbone C alpha angles. In addition, the identified fragments can be superimposed using either of the two structural superposition programs, STAMP and PROFIT, provided in the server. The freely available Java plug-in Jmol has been interfaced with the server for the visualization of the query and superposed fragments. The server is the updated version of a previously developed search engine and employs an in-house-developed fast pattern matching algorithm. This server can be accessed freely over the World Wide Web through the URL http://cluster.physics.iisc.ernet.in/ff/.

CHEXVIS: a tool for molecular channel extraction and visualization

Background: Understanding channel structures that lead to active sites or traverse the molecule is important in the study of molecular functions such as ion, ligand, and small molecule transport. Efficient methods for extracting, storing, and analyzing protein channels are required to support such studies. Further, there is a need for an integrated framework that supports computation of the channels, interactive exploration of their structure, and detailed visual analysis of their properties. Results: We describe a method for molecular channel extraction based on the alpha complex representation. The method computes geometrically feasible channels, stores both the volume occupied by the channel and its centerline in a unified representation, and reports significant channels. The representation also supports efficient computation of channel profiles that help understand channel properties. We describe methods for effective visualization of the channels and their profiles. These methods and the visual analysis framework are implemented in a software tool, CHEXVIS. We apply the method on a number of known channel containing proteins to extract pore features. Results from these experiments on several proteins show that CHEXVIS performance is comparable to, and in some cases, better than existing channel extraction techniques. Using several case studies, we demonstrate how CHEXVIS can be used to study channels, extract their properties and gain insights into molecular function. Conclusion: CHEXVIS supports the visual exploration of multiple channels together with their geometric and physico-chemical properties thereby enabling the understanding of the basic biology of transport through protein channels. The CHEXVIS web-server is freely available at http://vgl.serc.iisc.ernet.in/chexvis/. The web-server is supported on all modern browsers with latest Java plug-in.

Estimativa do recurso contingente dos folhelhos oleígenos da Formação Tremembé, Bacia de Taubaté, na região de Tremembé-Pindamonhangaba, SP

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo apresentar uma estimativa preliminar do volume de recurso contingente não-convencionais de folhelhos oleígenos (oil shale) na Formação Tremembé através de métodos probabilísticos aplicados à informações compiladas de bibliografias existentes sobre a bacia. Como base para esta estimativa utilizou-se informações obtidas através de sísmica 2D, poços existentes na área e perfis geoquímicos. Através da interpretação dos mesmos foram gerados os valores de inputs para os parâmetros utilizados no cálculo, como: espessura econômica, densidade do minério e valor de Ensaio Fisher (Litros de óleo por tonelada de rocha). Para a análise foi construída uma planilha Excel no qual já descrito cada parâmetro do cálculo. Foi utilizado o software @Risk, da Palisade Inc., que é capaz de atribuir distribuições estatísticas a parâmetros utilizados no cálculo obtendo, a partir do método Monte Carlo, distribuições dos possíveis resultados. A metodologia apresentada se demonstra mais adequada ao caso em estudo que o método determinístico, devido a restrição e ausência da precisão dos dados o que aumentaria as incertezas e as chances de erro no cálculo do volume, podendo impossibilitar uma avaliação, no caso do segundo. A metodologia probabilística ao mesmo tempo em que permite uma avaliação preliminar na ausência de dados precisos, ela gera cenários probabilísticos de resultados, possibilitando a antecipação da tomada de decisões em um projeto, permitindo sua continuação ou abandono.

The design and verification of FPGA CAD toolset

This paper introduces a complete CAD toolset for the implementation of digital logic in a Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) platform. Compared with existing academic toolsets, this toolset introduces formal verification in each step of the tool flow, especially the formal verification of the configuration bitstream. The FPGA CAD tool verification flow using Formality is presented in detail. Using plug-in technology, we have developed an integrated FPGA design kit to incorporate all tools together.

An analysis of the performance of a new high-speed single-way analog switch

This paper introduces a new highspeed single-way analog switch which has both highspeed high-resolution mono-direction analog transmission gate function and high-speed digital logic gate function with normal bipolar technology. The analysis of static and transient switching performances as an analog transmission gate is emphasized in the paper. In order to reduce the plug-in effect on high-speed high-resolution systems, an optimum design scheme is also given. This scheme is to achieve accelerated dynamic response with very low bias power dissipation. The analysis of PSPICE simulation as well as the circuit test results confirms the feasibility of the scheme. Now, the circuit has been applied effectively to the designs of novel highspeed A/D and D/A converters.

A one-way MOS analog switch

In this paper, a one-way NMOS analog switch featuring a low plug-in consumption is presented. The performances of analog switch, especially the performances of source follower are simulated under different conditions with PSPICE. Simulation results and factors affecting the deviation between input and output are analyzed, some advice on how to reduce the deviation between input and output is given. Ar the end of the paper, voltage relationship between input and output of the analog switch is obtained. Function of first degree, Vout = kVin + V0, is used to approximate the voltage relationship. The simulation results anti the value achieved from the approximation equation are given as well.