Common cycles in macroeconomic aggregates

Reduced form estimation of multivariate data sets currently takes into account long-run co-movement restrictions by using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM' s). However, short-run co-movement restrictions are completely ignored. This paper proposes a way of taking into account short-and long-run co-movement restrictions in multivariate data sets, leading to efficient estimation of VECM' s. It enables a more precise trend-cycle decomposition of the data which imposes no untested restrictions to recover these two components. The proposed methodology is applied to a multivariate data set containing U.S. per-capita output, consumption and investment Based on the results of a post-sample forecasting comparison between restricted and unrestricted VECM' s, we show that a non-trivial loss of efficiency results whenever short-run co-movement restrictions are ignored. While permanent shocks to consumption still play a very important role in explaining consumption’s variation, it seems that the improved estimates of trends and cycles of output, consumption, and investment show evidence of a more important role for transitory shocks than previously suspected. Furthermore, contrary to previous evidence, it seems that permanent shocks to output play a much more important role in explaining unemployment fluctuations.

Bond Strength of Two-Step Etch-and-Rinse Adhesive Systems to the Dentin of Primary and Permanent Teeth

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparative ablation rate from a Er : YAG laser on enamel and dentin of primary and permanent teeth

This study was conducted to analyze the ablation rate and micromorphological aspects of microcavities in enamel and dentin of primary and permanent teeth using a Er:YAG laser system. Micromorphological evaluation has been performed in terms of permanent teeth; however, little information about Er: YAG laser interaction with primary teeth can be found in the literature. Because children have been the most beneficiary patients with laser therapy in our offices, it is extremely necessary to compare the effects of this kind of laser system on the enamel and dentin of permanent and primary teeth. In this study, we used eleven intact primary anterior exfoliated teeth and six extracted permanent molar teeth. We used a commercial laser system: a Er: YAG Twin Light laser system (Fotona Medical Lasers, Slovenia) at 2940 nm, changing average energy levels per pulse ( 100, 200, 300, and 400 mJ) producing 48 microcavities in enamel and dentin of primary and permanent teeth. Primary teeth are more easily ablated than are permanent teeth, when related to enamel or dentin. However, while this laser system is capable of slowly revealing the enamel's microstructure, in dentin only the lowest laser energies permit this kind of observation, more easily decomposing the original tissue aspect, when related to primary or permanent teeth. Statistically, the only different factor at the 5% level was an energy per pulse of 400 mJ, confirming the results found in SEM. Our results showed that dentin in both primary and permanent teeth is less resistant to Er: YAG laser ablation; this fact is easily observed under SEM observation and through the ablation rate evaluation.

The effectiveness of heat, cold and 6-dimethylaminopurine shocks for inducing tetraploidy in the Kuruma shrimp, Marsupenaeus japonicus (Bate)

In this study tetraploid Marsupenaeus japonicus (Bate) embryos were produced by preventing the first division in mitosis. The effectiveness of temperature and chemical shocks for producing tetraploid M. japonicus were assessed when applied at different times postspawning and for different durations. Tetraploid M. japonicus embryos (spawned at 27 degrees C) were produced by heat shocks at 35 degrees C and 36 degrees C in three and eight spawning samples respectively, and a cold shock at 5 degrees C in a single spawning sample. All temperature shocks inducing tetraploidy were applied 18-23 min postspawning for a 5-10 min duration. The percentage of spawnings successfully inducing tetraploid embryos (i.e., frequency of induction) ranged from 33.33% to 66.67% for the 21, 22 and 23 min postspawning heat shock treatment regimes. The percentage of tetraploid embryos within an induction (i.e., induction rate), as determined by flow cytometry, ranged from 8.82% to 98.12% (ave. S.E.) (34.4 +/- 21.4%) for the 35 degrees C shock treatments, from 13.12% to 61.02% (35.0 +/- 5.0%) for the 36 degrees C shock treatments and was 15% for the 5 degrees C cold shock treatment. No tetraploids were produced for spawnings that received heat shocks above 36 degrees C or below 35 degrees C, or for cold shocks above 5 degrees C for any of the tested postspawning treatment and duration times. Chemical shock with 150 mu M 6-dimethylaminopurine did not result in tetraploid M. japonicus embryos at any of the tested postspawning treatment times and durations. Tetraploid M. japonicus embryos were nonviable, with no tetraploid larvae being detected by flow cytometry. Based on our results heat shocking of M. japonicus embryos at 36 degrees C, 23 min postspawning for a 5-10 min duration is the most effective means to produce tetraploids through inhibition of the first mitotic division (taking into consideration the importance of frequency and induction rate equally).

A seismic shift? An evaluation of the impact of new media on perceptions of freedom of expression and privacy

New media platforms have changed the media landscape forever, as they have altered our perceptions of the limits of communication, and reception of information. Platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp enable individuals to circumvent the traditional mass media, converging audience and producer to create millions of ‘citizen journalists’. This new breed of journalist uses these platforms as a way of, not only receiving news, but of instantaneously, and often spontaneously, expressing opinions and venting and sharing emotions, thoughts and feelings. They are liberated from cultural and physical restraints, such as time, space and location, and they are not constrained by factors that impact upon the traditional media, such as editorial control, owner or political bias or the pressures of generating commercial revenue. A consequence of the way in which these platforms have become ingrained within our social culture is that habits, conventions and social norms, that were once informal and transitory manifestations of social life, are now infused within their use. What were casual and ephemeral actions and/or acts of expression, such as conversing with friends or colleagues or swapping/displaying pictures, or exchanging thoughts that were once kept private, or maybe shared with a select few, have now become formalised and potentially permanent, on view for the world to see. Incidentally, ‘traditional’ journalists and media outlets are also utilising new media, as it allows them to react, and disseminate news, instantaneously, within a hyper-competitive marketplace. However, in a world where we are saturated, not only by citizen journalists, but by traditional media outlets, offering access to news and opinion twenty-four hours a day, via multiple new media platforms, there is increased pressure to ‘break’ news fast and first. This paper will argue that new media, and the culture and environment it has created, for citizen journalists, traditional journalists and the media generally, has altered our perceptions of the limits and boundaries of freedom of expression dramatically, and that the corollary to this seismic shift is the impact on the notion of privacy and private life. Consequently, this paper will examine what a reasonable expectation of privacy may now mean, in a new media world.

Earnings Variability and Earnings Instability of Women and Men in Canada: How Do the 1990's Compare to the 1980's (Working Paper 25)

It seems to be generally assumed that earnings instability has increased in the last decade or so, as earnings inequality has widened, but is this indeed the case, and if so, to what degree? This paper builds on earlier U.S. work to look at the total variance in individuals’ earnings with a focus on the distinction between permanent earnings variation associated with factors such as human capital investments or other persistent worker attributes, and transitory earnings variation or instability for a given individual from one year to another. We find that there was an increase in overall earnings variability, especially for men, but that the greatest part of this increase was driven by the permanent component – that is, by a widening dispersion of (life-cycle) earnings differentials across workers. The increased volatility of workers’ earnings about their life-cycle earnings profiles played a secondary role in the overall increase in men’s earnings variability, whereas for women this effect was very small or even worked in the opposite direction (depending on the particular age group). Patterns by age and region are also investigated.

Does Final Energy Demand in Portugal Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference parameters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects

Youth, Sport and the Social Inclusion Agenda

The purpose of this paper is to assess aspects of the British Government's attempts to use sporting participation as a vehicle to re-integrate socially disadvantaged, excluded and 'at-risk' youth into mainstream society. A number of organisations, policy-makers, commentators, and practitioners with a stake in the 'sport and social inclusion agenda' were interviewed. General agreement was found on a number of points: that the field was overly crowded with policies, programmes and initiatives; that the field worked in a 'bottom-up' way, with the most significant factor determining success being effective local workers with good networks and cultural access; that the dichotomising rhetoric of inclusion/exclusion was counter-productive; that the notion of the 'at-risk youth' was problematic and unhelpful; and that they all now dealt with a marketplace, where 'clients' had to be enrolled in their own reformation. There was also disagreement on a number of points: that policy acts as a relatively accurate template for practice, as opposed to the argument that it was simply regarded as a cluster of suggestions for practice; that policy was exceptionally piecemeal in its formulation and application, as opposed to regarding policy as necessarily targeted and dispersed; and that the inclusion agenda was largely politically driven and transitory, as opposed to the optimistic view that it had become ingrained in local practice. Finally, the paper examines some issues that are the most likely points of contribution by researchers in the area: that more research needs to be done on the processes of identity formation associated with participation in sport; that more effective programme evaluation needs to be done for such forms of governmental intervention to work properly; and that the relationship between different kinds of physical activity and social and personal change needs to be more thoroughly theorised.

Fold back current control and admittance protection scheme for a distribution network containing distributed generators

Islanded operation, protection, reclosing and arc extinguishing are some of the challenging issues related to the connection of converter interfaced distributed generators (DGs) into a distribution network. The isolation of upstream faults in grid connected mode and fault detection in islanded mode using overcurrent devices are difficult. In the event of an arc fault, all DGs must be disconnected in order to extinguish the arc. Otherwise, they will continue to feed the fault, thus sustaining the arc. However, the system reliability can be increased by maximising the DG connectivity to the system: therefore, the system protection scheme must ensure that only the faulted segment is removed from the feeder. This is true even in the case of a radial feeder as the DG can be connected at various points along the feeder. In this paper, a new relay scheme is proposed which, along with a novel current control strategy for converter interfaced DGs, can isolate permanent and temporary arc faults. The proposed protection and control scheme can even coordinate with reclosers. The results are validated through PSCAD/EMTDC simulation and MATLAB calculations.

The 1989 Comprehensive Plan of Action (CPA) and refugee policy in Southeast Asia : twenty years forward what has changed?

In 2012, the only South East Asian countries that have ratified the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees (hereafter referred to as the 1951 Convention and 1967 Protocol) is Philippines (signed 1954), Cambodia (signed 1995) and Timor Leste (signed 2001). Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have annual asylum seeking populations from Myanmar, South Asia and Middle East, that are estimated to be at 15 000-20 000 per country (UNHCR 2012). The lack of a permanent and formal asylum processing process in these countries means that that asylum-seeking populations in the region are reliant on the local offices of the United Nations High Commission for Refugees based in the region to process their claims. These offices rely upon the good will of these governments to have a presence near detection camps and in capital cities to process claims of those who manage to reach the UNHCR representative office. The only burden sharing mechanism within the region primarily exists under the Bali Process on People Smuggling, Trafficking in Persons and Related Transnational Crime (the Bali Process), introduced in 2002. The Bali Process refers to an informal cooperative agreement amongst the states from the Asia-Pacific region, with Australia and Indonesia as the co-chairs, which discusses its namesake: primarily anti-people smuggling activities and migration protocols. There is no provision within this process to discuss the development of national asylum seeking legislation, processes for domestic processing of asylum claims or burden sharing in contrast to other regions such as Africa and South America (i.e. 2009 African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of the Internally Displaced, 1969 African Union Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa and 1984 Cartagena Declaration on Refugees [Americas]) (PEF 2010: 19).

Consent for third molar tooth extractions in Australia and New Zealand: A review of current practice

Background Informed consent is the legal requirement to educate a patient about a proposed medical treatment or procedure so that he or she can make informed decisions. The purpose of the study was to examine the current practice for obtaining informed consent for third molar tooth extractions (wisdom teeth) by Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons in Australia and New Zealand. Methods An online survey was sent to 180 consultant Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons in Australia and New Zealand. Surgeons were asked to answer (yes/no) whether they routinely warned of a specific risk of third molar tooth extraction in their written consent. Results 71 replies were received (39%). The only risks that surgeons agreed should be routinely included in written consent were a general warning of infection (not alveolar osteitis), inferior alveolar nerve damage (temporary and permanent) and lingual nerve damage (temporary and permanent). Conclusions There is significant variability among Australian and New Zealand Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons regarding risk disclosure for third molar tooth extractions. We aim to improve consistency in consent for third molar extractions by developing an evidence-based consent form.

Information flow, trading activity and commodity futures volatility

Based on unique news data relating to gold and crude oil, we investigate how news volume and sentiment, shocks in trading activity, market depth and trader positions unrelated to information flow covary with realized volatility. Positive shocks to the rate of news arrival, and negative shocks to news sentiment exhibit the largest effects. After controlling for the level of news flow and cross-correlations, net trader positions play only a minor role. These findings are at odds with those of [Wang (2002a). The Journal of Futures Markets, 22, 427–450; Wang (2002b). The Financial Review, 37, 295–316], but are consistent with the previous literature which doesn't find a strong link between volatility and trader positions.

Methane and carbon dioxide adsorption on edge-functionalized graphene: a comparative DFT study

With a view towards optimizing gas storage and separation in crystalline and disordered nanoporous carbon-based materials, we use ab initio density functional theory calculations to explore the effect of chemical functionalization on gas binding to exposed edges within model carbon nanostructures. We test the geometry, energetics, and charge distribution of in-plane and out-of-plane binding of CO2 and CH4 to model zigzag graphene nanoribbons edge-functionalized with COOH, OH, NH2, H2PO3, NO2, and CH3. Although different choices for the exchange-correlation functional lead to a spread of values for the binding energy, trends across the functional groups are largely preserved for each choice, as are the final orientations of the adsorbed gas molecules. We find binding of CO2 to exceed that of CH4 by roughly a factor of two. However, the two gases follow very similar trends with changes in the attached functional group, despite different molecular symmetries. Our results indicate that the presence of NH2, H2PO3, NO2, and COOH functional groups can significantly enhance gas binding, making the edges potentially viable binding sites in materials with high concentrations of edge carbons. To first order, in-plane binding strength correlates with the larger permanent and induced dipole moments on these groups. Implications for tailoring carbon structures for increased gas uptake and improved CO2/CH4 selectivity are discussed. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4736568]

Penetration Characteristics of Air, Carbon Dioxide and Helium Transverse Sonic Jets in Mach 5 Cross Flow

An experimental investigation of sonic air, CO2 and Helium transverse jets in Mach 5 cross flow was carried out over a flat plate. The jet to freestream momentum flux ratio, J, was kept the same for all gases. The unsteady flow topology was examined using high speed schlieren visualisation and PIV. Schlieren visualisation provided information regarding oscillating jet shear layer structures and bow shock, Mach disc and barrel shocks. Two-component PIV measurements at the centreline, provided information regarding jet penetration trajectories. Barrel shocks and Mach disc forming the jet boundary were visualised/quantified also jet penetration boundaries were determined. Even though J is kept the same for all gases, the penetration patterns were found to be remarkably different both at the nearfield and the farfield. Air and CO2 jet resulted similar nearfield and farfield penetration pattern whereas Helium jet spread minimal in the nearfield.

Physicochemical and biological cycles in a tide dominated, nitrogen-polluted temperate estuary

Spatio-temporal variations in the physicochemical and biological parameters in the Morlaix estuary on the Brittany coast of France were studied. Hydrographically, the estuary can be classified into 3 segments: the upper estuary where stratification always persists, the lower estuary where vertical homogeneity is permanent, and a middle estuary where there is a regular oscillation of stratification and homogeneity during every tidal cycle, stratification being associated with slack waters and homogeneity, with ebb and flood. Nitrogen pollution in the estuary is very intense.