The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

From the Editor

In this issue of the Journal, the articles considered reflect the depth of research and practice that is unique to project management discipline. The range of topics addressed includes managing project contracts (Chan et al., “A Comparative Study of the Benefits of Applying Target Cost Contracts Between South Australia and Hong Kong”), managing project complexity (Chronéer and Bergquist, “Managerial Complexity in Process Industrial R&D Projects: A Swedish Study”), identifying early warning signs in complex projects (Williams et al., “Identifying and Acting on Early Warning Signs in Complex Projects”), project risk management (Krane, Olsson, and Rolstadås, “How Project Manager–Project Owner Interaction Can Work Within and Influence Project Risk Management”), exploring decisions regarding outsourcing and alignment of the project management office (Martins and Martins, “Outsourcing Operations in Project Management Offices: The Reality of Brazilian Companies”), and project management practices at strategic and tactical levels of the organization leading to sustainable development (Herazo, Lizarralde, and Paquin, “Sustainable Development in the Building Sector: A Canadian Case Study on the Alignment of Strategic and Tactical Management”).

Injury prevention among friends : the benefits of school connectedness

Background: Injury is a leading cause of adolescent death. Risk-taking behaviours, including unsafe road behaviours, violence and alcohol use, are primary contributors. Recent research suggests adolescents look out for their friends and engage in protective behaviour to reduce others’ involvement in risk-taking. A positive school environment, and particularly students’ school connectedness, is also associated with reduced injury-risks. Aim: This study aimed to understand the role of school connectedness in adolescents’ intentions to protect and prevent their friends from involvement in alcohol use, fights, drink driving and unlicensed driving. Method: Surveys were completed by 540 13-14 year old students (49% male). Four sequential logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine whether school connectedness statistically predicted intentions to protect friends from injury-risk behaviours. Gender and ethnicity were entered at step 1, students’ own risk behaviour at step 2, and school connectedness scores at step 3 for all analyses. Results: School connectedness significantly predicted intentions to protect friends from all four injury-risk behaviours, after accounting for the variance attributable to sex, ethnicity and adolescents’ own involvement in injury-risks. Significance: School connectedness is negatively associated with adolescents’ own injury-risk behaviours. This research extends our knowledge of this critical protective factor, as it shows that students who are connected to school are also more likely to protect their friends from alcohol use, violence and unsafe road behaviours. School connectedness may therefore be an important factor to target in school-based prevention programs, both to reduce adolescents’ own injury-risk behaviour and to increase injury prevention among friends.

Benefits of using modern cementing techniques in the acetabulum : the rim cutter

Purpose. To compare radiological records of 90 consecutive patients who underwent cemented total hip arthroplasty (THA) with or without use of the Rim Cutter to prepare the acetabulum. Methods. The acetabulum of 45 patients was prepared using the Rim Cutter, whereas the device was not used in the other 45 patients. Postoperative radiographs were evaluated using a digital templating system to measure (1) the positions of the operated hips with respect to the normal, contralateral hips (the centre of rotation of the socket, the height of the centre of rotation from the teardrop, and lateralisation of the centre of rotation from the teardrop) and (2) the uniformity and width of the cement mantle in the 3 DeLee Charnley acetabular zones, and the number of radiolucencies in these zones. Results. The study group showed improved radiological parameters and were closer to the anatomic centre of rotation both vertically (1.5 vs. 3.7 mm, p<0.001) and horizontally (1.8 vs. 4.4 mm, p<0.001) and had consistently thicker and more uniform cement mantles (p<0.001). There were 2 radiolucent lines in the control group but none in the study group. Conclusion. The Rim Cutter resulted in more accurate placement of the centre of rotation of a cemented prosthetic socket, and produced a thicker, more congruent cement mantle with fewer radiolucent lines.

Welfare-to-work and the experience of single mothers in Australia : where are the benefits?

In July 2006 ‘welfare-to-work’ policies were introduced for single parents in Australia. These policies require most single parents with school aged children to be employed or seeking employment of 15-25 hours per week in return for their income support payment. The changes represented a sharp increase in the obligations applying to single parents on income support. This paper is concerned with how the well-being of single mothers who are combining income support and paid employment is being influenced by these stepped up activity requirements. The paper draws on data from semi-structured interviews with 21 Brisbane single mothers. The analysis explores participants’ experiences in the new policy environment utilizing the theoretical framework of ‘relational autonomy’. Relational approaches to autonomy emphasize the importance of relations of dependency and interdependency to the development of autonomy and well-being. The findings indicate that in their dealings with the welfare bureaucracy participants experienced a lack of recognition of their identities as mothers, paid workers and competent decision makers. These experiences have negative consequences for self worth, relational autonomy and ultimately the well-being of single parent families.

Supply chain benefits expectation management framework

Organizations invest heavily in Supply Chain Management Systems expecting the benefits promised by the software vendors and the implementation partners. However, both academic and industry reports suggest that there is growing dissatisfaction among client organizations due to an increasing gap in benefits purported by the software vendors and benefits realised by the client. In order to better manage expectations of the client organization, this study proposes a Benefit Expectation Management Framework for Supply Chain Management Systems, based on Expectation-Confirmation Theory. This study derives 60 expected benefits of Supply Chain Management Systems through 41 vendor-reported customer stories and academic papers. Through comparing those benefits with the received benefits by a case organization that has implemented SAP Supply Chain Management Systems for seven years, two salient factors – long timetable and multiple stakeholders – have been identified as the controlling factors affecting the confirmation level of Supply Chain Management System expectations and further impacting the satisfaction of a client organization. The case study also highlights the likely causes for realized benefits and enduring issues in relation to the Supply Chain Management Systems.

Bicyclists overestimate their own night-time conspicuity and underestimate the benefits of retroreflective markers on the moveable joints

Conspicuity limitations make bicycling at night dangerous. This experiment quantified bicyclists’ estimates of the distance at which approaching drivers would first recognize them. Twenty five participants (including 13 bicyclists who rode at least once per week, and 12 who rode once per month or less) cycled in place on a closed-road circuit at night-time and indicated when they were confident that an approaching driver would first recognize that a bicyclist was present. Participants wore black clothing alone or together with a fluorescent bicycling vest, a fluorescent bicycling vest with additional retroreflective tape, or the fluorescent retroreflective vest plus ankle and knee reflectors in a modified ‘biomotion’ configuration. The bicycle had a light mounted on the handlebars which was either static, flashing or off. Participants judged that black clothing made them least visible, retroreflective strips on the legs in addition to a retroreflective vest made them most visible and that adding retroreflective materials to a fluorescent vest provides no conspicuity benefits. Flashing bicycle lights were associated with higher conspicuity than static lights. Additionally, occasional bicyclists judged themselves to be more visible than did frequent bicyclists. Overall, bicyclists overestimated their conspicuity compared to previously collected recognition distances and underestimated the conspicuity benefits of retroreflective markings on their ankles and knees. Participants mistakenly judged that a fluorescent vest that did not include retroreflective material would enhance their night-time conspicuity. These findings suggest that bicyclists have dangerous misconceptions concerning the magnitude of the night-time conspicuity problem and the potential value of conspicuity treatments.

The financial life well-lived: psychological benefits of financial planning

As the financial planning industry undergoes a series of reforms aimed at increased professionalism and improved quality of advice, financial planner training in Australia and elsewhere has begun to acknowledge the importance of interdisciplinary knowledge bases in informing both curriculum design and professoinal practice (e.g. FPA2009). This paper underscores the importance of the process of financial planning by providing a conceptual analysis of the six step financial planning process using key mechanisms derived from theory and research in cognate disciplines such as psychology and well-being. The paper identifies how these mechanisms may operate to impact client well-being in the financial planning context. The conceptual mapping of th emechanisms to process elements of financial planning is a unique contribution to the financial planning literature and offers a further framework in the armamentarium of researchers interested in pursuing questions around the value of financial planning. The conceptual framework derived from the analysis also adds to the growing body of literature aimed at developing an integrated model of financial planning.

Agricultural biodiversity, farm level technical efficiency and conservation benefits : an empirical investigation

The issues involved in agricultural biodiversity are important and interesting areas for the application of economic theory. However, very little theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken to understand the benefits of conserving agricultural biodiversity. Accordingly, the main objectives of this PhD thesis are to: (1) Investigate farmers’ valuation of agricultural biodiversity; (2) Identify factors influencing farmers’ demand for agricultural biodiversity; (3) Examine farmers’ demand for biodiversity rich farming systems; (4) Investigate the relationship between agricultural biodiversity and farm level technical efficiency. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data in small-scale farms, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarized as follows. Firstly, owing to educational and poverty issues of those being interviewed, some policy makers in developed countries question whether non-market valuation techniques such as Choice Experiment (CE) can be applied to developing countries such as Sri Lanka. The CE study in this thesis indicates that carefully designed and pre-tested nonmarket valuation techniques can be applied in developing countries with a high level of reliability. The CE findings support the priori assumption that small-scale farms and their multiple attributes contribute positively and significantly to the utility of farm families in Sri Lanka. Farmers have strong positive attitudes towards increasing agricultural biodiversity in rural areas. This suggests that these attitudes can be the basis on which appropriate policies can be introduced to improve agricultural biodiversity. Secondly, the thesis identifies the factors which influence farmers’ demand for agricultural biodiversity and farmers’ demands on biodiversity rich farming systems. As such they provide important tools for the implementation of policies designed to avoid the loss agricultural biodiversity which is shown to be a major impediment to agricultural growth and sustainable development in a number of developing countries. The results illustrate that certain key household, market and other characteristics (such as agricultural subsidies, percentage of investment of owned money and farm size) are the major determinants of demand for agricultural biodiversity on small-scale farms. The significant household characteristics that determine crop and livestock diversity include household member participation on the farm, off-farm income, shared labour, market price fluctuations and household wealth. Furthermore, it is shown that all the included market characteristics as well as agricultural subsidies are also important determinants of agricultural biodiversity. Thirdly, it is found that when the efficiency of agricultural production is measured in practice, the role of agricultural biodiversity has rarely been investigated in the literature. The results in the final section of the thesis show that crop diversity, livestock diversity and mix farming system are positively related to farm level technical efficiency. In addition to these variables education level, number of separate plots, agricultural extension service, credit access, membership of farm organization and land ownerships are significant and direct policy relevant variables in the inefficiency model. The results of the study therefore have important policy implications for conserving agricultural biodiversity in Sri Lanka.

A framework of promoting stakeholder mutual benefits for sustainable housing implementation

Strong regulatory pressure and rising public awareness on environmental issues will continue to influence the market demand for sustainable housing for years to come. Despite this potential, the voluntary uptake rate of sustainable practices is not as high as expected within the new built housing industry. This is in contrast to the influx of emerging building technologies, new materials and innovative designs as showcased in office buildings and exemplar homes worldwide. One of the possible reasons for this under-performance is that key stakeholders such as developers, builders and consumers do not fully understand and appreciate the related challenges, risks and opportunities of pursuing sustainability. Therefore, in their professional and business activities, they may not be able to see the tangible and mutual benefits that sustainable housing may bring. This research investigates the multiple challenges to achieving benefits (CABs) from sustainable housing development, and links these factors to the characteristics of key stakeholders in the housing supply chain. It begins with a comparative survey study among seven stakeholder groups in the Australian housing industry, in order to examine the importance and interrelationships of CABs. In-depth interviews then further explore the survey findings with a focus on stakeholder diversity, which leads to the identification of 12 critical mutual-benefit factors and their interrelationship. Based on such a platform, a mutual-benefit framework is developed with the aid of Interpretive Structure Modelling, to identify the patterns of stakeholder benefit materialisation, suggest the priority of critical factors and provide related stakeholder-specific action guidelines for sustainable housing implementation. The study concludes with a case study of two real-life housing projects to test the application of the mutual-benefit framework for improvement. This framework will lead to a shared value of sustainability among stakeholders and improved stakeholder collaboration, which in turn help to break the "circle of blame" for the current under-performance of sustainable housing implementation.

Ubiquitous customer relationship management : unforeseen issues and benefits

Convergence of pervasive technologies, techno-centric customers and the emergence of digitized channels, overabundance of user friendly retail applications are having a profound impact on retail experience, leading to the advent of ‘everywhere retailing’. With the rapid uptake of digital complimentary assets and smart mobile applications are revolutionizing the relationship of retailers with their customers and suppliers. Retail firms are increasingly investing substantial resources on dynamic Customer Relationship Management systems (D-CRM / U-CRM) to better engage with customers to sense and respond quickly (Agility of the firm) to their demands. However, unlike traditional CRM systems, engagement with U-CRM systems requires that firms be hyper sensitive to volatile customer needs and wants. Following the notions of firm agility, this study attempts to develop a framework to understand such unforeseen benefits and issues of U-CRM. This research-in-progress paper reports an a-priory framework including 62 U-CRM benefits derived through an archival analysis of literature.