Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Stereotypes of Taiwanese salespeople at the service interface

Stereotypes of salespeople are common currency in US media outlets and research suggests that these stereotypes are uniformly negative. However, there is no reason to expect that stereotypes will be consistent across cultures. The present paper provides the first empirical examination of salesperson stereotypes in an Asian country, specifically Taiwan. Using accepted psychological methods, Taiwanese salesperson stereotypes are found to be twofold, with a negative stereotype being quite congruent with existing US stereotypes, but also a positive stereotype, which may be related to the specific culture of Taiwan.

Older adults, interface experience and cognitive decline

This paper describes an experiment undertaken to investigate intuitive interaction, particularly in older adults. Previous work has shown that intuitive interaction relies on past experience, and has also suggested that older people demonstrate less intuitive uses and slower times when completing set tasks with various devices. Similarly, this experiment showed that past experience with relevant products allowed people to use the interfaces of two different microwaves more quickly and intuitively. It also revealed that certain aspects of cognitive decline related to aging, such as central executive function, have more impact on time, correct uses and intuitive uses than chronological age. Implications of these results are discussed.

Adapting to the work-life interface : the influence of individual differences, work and family on well-being, mental health and work engagement

Bronfenbrenner.s Bioecological Model, expressed as the developmental equation, D f PPCT, is the theoretical framework for two studies that bring together diverse strands of psychology to study the work-life interface of working adults. Occupational and organizational psychology is focused on the demands and resources of work and family, without emphasising the individual in detail. Health and personality psychology examine the individual but without emphasis on the individual.s work and family roles. The current research used Bronfenbrenner.s theoretical framework to combine individual differences, work and family to understand how these factors influence the working adult.s psychological functioning. Competent development has been defined as high well-being (measured as life satisfaction and psychological well-being) and high work engagement (as work vigour, work dedication and absorption in work) and as the absence of mental illness (as depression, anxiety and stress) and the absence of burnout (as emotional exhaustion, cynicism and professional efficacy). Study 1 and 2 were linked, with Study 1 as a cross-sectional survey and Study 2, a prospective panel study that followed on from the data used in Study1. Participants were recruited from a university and from a large public hospital to take part in a 3-wave, online study where they completed identical surveys at 3-4 month intervals (N = 470 at Time 1 and N = 198 at Time 3). In Study 1, hierarchical multiple regressions were used to assess the effects of individual differences (Block 1, e.g. dispositional optimism, coping self-efficacy, perceived control of time, humour), work and family variables (Block 2, e.g. affective commitment, skill discretion, work hours, children, marital status, family demands) and the work-life interface (Block 3, e.g. direction and quality of spillover between roles, work-life balance) on the outcomes. There were a mosaic of predictors of the outcomes with a group of seven that were the most frequent significant predictors and which represented the individual (dispositional optimism and coping self-efficacy), the workplace (skill discretion, affective commitment and job autonomy) and the work-life interface (negative work-to-family spillover and negative family-to-work spillover). Interestingly, gender and working hours were not important predictors. The effects of job social support, generally and for work-life issues, perceived control of time and egalitarian gender roles on the outcomes were mediated by negative work-to-family spillover, particularly for emotional exhaustion. Further, the effect of negative spillover on depression, anxiety and work engagement was moderated by the individual.s personal and workplace resources. Study 2 modelled the longitudinal relationships between the group of the seven most frequent predictors and the outcomes. Using a set of non-nested models, the relative influences of concurrent functioning, stability and change over time were assessed. The modelling began with models at Time 1, which formed the basis for confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to establish the underlying relationships between the variables and calculate the composite variables for the longitudinal models. The CFAs were well fitting with few modifications to ensure good fit. However, using burnout and work engagement together required additional analyses to resolve poor fit, with one factor (representing a continuum from burnout to work engagement) being the only acceptable solution. Five different longitudinal models were investigated as the Well-Being, Mental Distress, Well-Being-Mental Health, Work Engagement and Integrated models using differing combinations of the outcomes. The best fitting model for each was a reciprocal model that was trimmed of trivial paths. The strongest paths were the synchronous correlations and the paths within variables over time. The reciprocal paths were more variable with weak to mild effects. There was evidence of gain and loss spirals between the variables over time, with a slight net gain in resources that may provide the mechanism for the accumulation of psychological advantage over a lifetime. The longitudinal models also showed that there are leverage points at which personal, psychological and managerial interventions can be targeted to bolster the individual and provide supportive workplace conditions that also minimise negative spillover. Bronfenbrenner.s developmental equation has been a useful framework for the current research, showing the importance of the person as central to the individual.s experience of the work-life interface. By taking control of their own life, the individual can craft a life path that is most suited to their own needs. Competent developmental outcomes were most likely where the person was optimistic and had high self-efficacy, worked in a job that they were attached to and which allowed them to use their talents and without too much negative spillover between their work and family domains. In this way, individuals had greater well-being, better mental health and greater work engagement at any one time and across time.

Exploring the Pro‐Am interface between production and produsage

This conference celebrates the passing of 40 years since the establishment of the Internet (dating this, presumably, to the first connection between two nodes on ARPANET in October 1969). For a gathering of media scholars such as this, however, it may be just as important not only to mark the first testing of the core technologies upon which much of our present‐day Net continues to build, but also to reflect on another recent milestone: the 20th anniversary of what is today arguably the chief interface through which billions around the world access and experience the Internet – the World Wide Web, launched by Tim Berners‐Lee in 1989.

Manipulating double-decker molecules at the liquid-solid interface

We have used a scanning tunneling microscope to manipulate heteroleptic phthalocyaninato, naphthalocyaninato, porphyrinato double-decker molecules at the liquid/solid interface between 1-phenyloctane solvent and graphite. We employed nano-grafting of phthalocyanines with eight octyl chains to place these molecules into a matrix of heteroleptic double-decker molecules; the overlayer structure is epitaxial on graphite. We have also used nano-grafting to place double-decker molecules in matrices of single-layer phthalocyanines with octyl chains. Rectangular scans with a scanning tunneling microscope at low bias voltage resulted in the removal of the adsorbed doubledecker molecular layer and substituted the double-decker molecules with bilayer-stacked phthalocyanines from phenyloctane solution. Single heteroleptic double-decker molecules with lutetium sandwiched between naphthalocyanine and octaethylporphyrin were decomposed with voltage pulses from the probe tip; the top octaethylporphyrin ligand was removed and the bottom naphthalocyanine ligand remained on the surface. A domain of decomposed molecules was formed within the double-decker molecular domain, and the boundary of the decomposed molecular domain self-cured to become rectangular. We demonstrated a molecular “sliding block puzzle” with cascades of double-decker molecules on the graphite surface.

Formation of one-dimensional capped ZnO nanoparticle assemblies at the air/water interface

The self-assembling behavior and microscopic structure of zinc oxide nanoparticle Langmuir-Blodgett monolayer films were investigated for the case of zinc oxide nanoparticles coated with a hydrophobic layer of dodecanethiol. Evolution of nanoparticle film structure as a function of surface pressure (π) at the air-water interface was monitored in situ using Brewster’s angle microscopy, where it was determined that π=16 mN/m produced near-defect-free monolayer films. Transmission electron micrographs of drop-cast and Langmuir-Schaefer deposited films of the dodecanethiol-coated zinc oxide nanoparticles revealed that the nanoparticle preparation method yielded a microscopic structure that consisted of one-dimensional rodlike assemblies of nanoparticles with typical dimensions of 25 x 400 nm, encased in the organic dodecanethiol layer. These nanoparticle-containing rodlike micelles were aligned into ordered arrangements of parallel rods using the Langmuir-Blodgett technique.

Commissioning of a Geant4 based treatment plan simulation tool : linac model and dicom-rt interface

A Geant4 based simulation tool has been developed to perform Monte Carlo modelling of a 6 MV VarianTM iX clinac. The computer aided design interface of Geant4 was used to accurately model the LINAC components, including the Millenium multi-leaf collimators (MLCs). The simulation tool was verified via simulation of standard commissioning dosimetry data acquired with an ionisation chamber in a water phantom. Verification of the MLC model was achieved by simulation of leaf leakage measurements performed using GafchromicTM film in a solid water phantom. An absolute dose calibration capability was added by including a virtual monitor chamber into the simulation. Furthermore, a DICOM-RT interface was integrated with the application to allow the simulation of treatment plans in radiotherapy. The ability of the simulation tool to accurately model leaf movements and doses at each control point was verified by simulation of a widely used intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) quality assurance (QA) technique, the chair test.

The effect of friction on indenter force and pile-up in numerical simulations of bone nanoindentation

Nanoindentation is a useful technique for probing the mechanical properties of bone, and finite element (FE) modeling of the indentation allows inverse determination of elasto-plastic constitutive properties. However, all but one FE study to date have assumed frictionless contact between indenter and bone. The aim of this study was to explore the effect of friction in simulations of bone nanoindentation. Two dimensional axisymmetric FE simulations were performed using a spheroconical indenter of tip radius 0.6 m and angle 90°. The coefficient of friction between indenter and bone was varied between 0.0 (frictionless) and 0.3. Isotropic linear elasticity was used in all simulations, with bone elastic modulus E=13.56GPa and Poisson‟s ratio f 0.3. Plasticity was incorporated using both Drucker-Prager and von Mises yield surfaces. Friction had a modest effect on the predicted force-indentation curve for both von Mises and Drucker-Prager plasticity, reducing maximum indenter displacement by 10% and 20% respectively as friction coefficient was increased from zero to 0.3 (at a maximum indenter force of 5mN). However, friction has a much greater effect on predicted pile-up after indentation, reducing predicted pile-up from 0.27 to 0.11 m with a von Mises model, and from 0.09 to 0.02 m with Drucker-Prager plasticity. We conclude that it is potentially important to include friction in nanoindentation simulations of bone if pile-up is used to compare simulation results with experiment.