Under the skin: Wearable technology futures

Artist statement – Artisan Gallery I have a confession to make… I don’t wear a FitBit, I don’t want an Apple Watch and I don’t like bling LED’s. But, what excites me is a future where ‘wearables’ are discreet, seamless and potentially one with our body. Burgeoning E-textiles research will provide the ability to inconspicuously communicate, measure and enhance human health and well-being. Alongside this, next generation wearables arguably will not be worn on the body, but rather within the body…under the skin. ‘Under the Skin’ is a polemic piece provoking debate on the future of wearables – a place where they are not overt, not auxiliary and perhaps not apparent. Indeed, a future where wearables are under the skin or one with our apparel. And, as underwear closets the skin and is the most intimate and cloaked apparel item we wear, this work unashamedly teases dialogue to explore how wearables can transcend from the overt to the unseen. Context Wearable Technology, also referred to as wearable computing or ‘wearables’, is an embryonic field that has the potential to unsettle conventional notions as to how technology can interact, enhance and augment the human body. Wearable technology is the next-generation for ubiquitous consumer electronics and ‘Wearables’ are, in essence, miniature electronic devices that are worn by a person, under clothing, embedded within clothing/textiles, on top of clothing, or as stand-alone accessories/devices. This wearables market is predicted to grow somewhere between $30-$50 billion in the next 5 years (Credit Suisse, 2013). The global ‘wearables’ market, which is emergent in phase, has forecasted predictions for vast consumer revenue with the potential to become a significant cross-disciplinary disruptive space for designers and entrepreneurs. For Fashion, the field of wearables is arguably at the intersection of the second and third generation for design innovation: the first phase being purely decorative with aspects such as LED lighting; the second phase consisting of an array of wearable devices, such as smart watches, to communicate areas such as health and fitness, the third phase involving smart electronics that are woven into the textile to perform a vast range of functions such as body cooling, fabric colour change or garment silhouette change; and the fourth phase where wearable devices are surgically implanted under the skin to augment, transform and enhance the human body. Whilst it is acknowledged the wearable phases are neither clear-cut nor discreet in progression and design innovation can still be achieved with first generation decorative approaches, the later generation of technology that is less overt and at times ‘under the skin’ provides a uniquely rich point for design innovation where the body and technology intersect as one. With this context in mind, the wearable provocation piece ‘Under the Skin’ provides a unique opportunity for the audience to question and challenge conventional notions that wearables need to be a: manifest in nature, b: worn on or next to the body, and c: purely functional. The piece ‘Under the Skin’ is informed by advances in the market place for wearable innovation, such as: the Australian based wearable design firm Catapult with their discreet textile biometric sports tracking innovation, French based Spinali Design with their UV app based textile senor to provide sunburn alerts, as well as opportunities for design technology innovation through UNICEF’s ‘Wearables for Good’ design challenge to improve the quality of life in disadvantaged communities. Exhibition As part of Artisan’s Wearnext exhibition, the work was on public display from 25 July to 7 November 2015 and received the following media coverage: WEARNEXT ONLINE LISTINGS AND MEDIA COVERAGE: http://indulgemagazine.net/wear-next/ http://www.weekendnotes.com/wear-next-exhibition-gallery-artisan/ http://concreteplayground.com/brisbane/event/wear-next_/ http://www.nationalcraftinitiative.com.au/news_and_events/event/48/wear-next http://bneart.com/whats-on/wear-next_/ http://creativelysould.tumblr.com/post/124899079611/creative-weekend-art-edition http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/smartly-dressed-the-future-of-wearable-technology/6744374 http://couriermail.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx RADIO COVERAGE http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/wear-next-exhibition-whats-next-for-wearable-technology/6745986 TELEVISION COVERAGE http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/wear-next-exhibition-whats-next-for-wearable-technology/6745986 https://au.news.yahoo.com/video/watch/29439742/how-you-could-soon-be-wearing-smart-clothes/#page1

Information flow, trading activity and commodity futures volatility

Based on unique news data relating to gold and crude oil, we investigate how news volume and sentiment, shocks in trading activity, market depth and trader positions unrelated to information flow covary with realized volatility. Positive shocks to the rate of news arrival, and negative shocks to news sentiment exhibit the largest effects. After controlling for the level of news flow and cross-correlations, net trader positions play only a minor role. These findings are at odds with those of [Wang (2002a). The Journal of Futures Markets, 22, 427–450; Wang (2002b). The Financial Review, 37, 295–316], but are consistent with the previous literature which doesn't find a strong link between volatility and trader positions.

The Economics of Gasification: A Market-Based Approach

This paper deals with the economics of gasification facilities in general and IGCC power plants in particular. Regarding the prospects of these systems, passing the technological test is one thing, passing the economic test can be quite another. In this respect, traditional valuations assume constant input and/or output prices. Since this is hardly realistic, we allow for uncertainty in prices. We naturally look at the markets where many of the products involved are regularly traded. Futures markets on commodities are particularly useful for valuing uncertain future cash flows. Thus, revenues and variable costs can be assessed by means of sound financial concepts and actual market data. On the other hand, these complex systems provide a number of flexibility options (e.g., to choose among several inputs, outputs, modes of operation, etc.). Typically, flexibility contributes significantly to the overall value of real assets. Indeed, maximization of the asset value requires the optimal exercise of any flexibility option available. Yet the economic value of flexibility is elusive, the more so under (price) uncertainty. And the right choice of input fuels and/or output products is a main concern for the facility managers. As a particular application, we deal with the valuation of input flexibility. We follow the Real Options approach. In addition to economic variables, we also address technical and environmental issues such as energy efficiency, utility performance characteristics and emissions (note that carbon constraints are looming). Lastly, a brief introduction to some stochastic processes suitable for valuation purposes is provided.

Reforming the CDM for sustainable development: lessons learned and policy futures

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has successfully demonstrated that market-based mechanisms can achieve some cost effective emissions reductions in developing countries. However the distribution of CDM projects has been extremely uneven across countries and regions, and a few technologies and sectors have dominated the early stages of CDM experience. This has caused some to question whether the CDM has fallen short of its potential in contributing to sustainable development. We review the broad patterns of CDM project approvals and evaluate 10 CDM projects according to their sustainability benefits. The difficulty of defining “sustainable development” and the process of defining criteria by individual non-Annex 1 governments has meant that sustainable development concerns have been marginalized in some countries. Given these observed limitations, we present possible CDM policy futures, focusing on the main proposals for a post-2012 climate regime. Five options for enhancing the sustainable development benefits in the CDM are discussed, including proactive approaches to favour eligibility of emission reduction projects which ensure such co-benefits.

Occupational futures? Divesting real estate and corporate PFI

Property ownership can tie up large amounts of capital and management energy that business could employ more productively elsewhere. Competitive pressures, accounting changes and increasingly sophisticated occupier requirements are building demand for new and innovative ways to satisfy corporate occupation needs. The investment climate is also changing. Falling interest rates and falling inflation can be expected to undermine returns from the traditional FRI lease. In future, investment returns will be more dependent on active and innovative management geared to the needs of occupiers on whom income depends. Occupier and investor interests, therefore, look set to coincide, but unlocking the potential for both parties will depend on developing new finance and investment vehicles that align their respective needs. In the UK, examples include PFI in the public sector and off-balance sheet financing in the private sector. In the USA, “synthetic lease” structures have also become popular. Growing investment market experience in assessing risks and returns suggests scope for further innovative arrangements in the corporate sector. But how can such arrangements be structured? What are the risks, drivers and barriers?

Simultaneous volatility transmissions and spillover effects: U.S. and Hong Kong stock and futures markets

Contemporaneous transmission effects across volatilities of the Hong Kong Stock and Index futures markets and futures volume of trade are tested by employing a structural systems approach. Competing measures of volatility spillover, constructed from the overnight U.S. S&P500 index futures, are tested and found to impact on the Hong Kong asset return volatility and volume of trade patterns. The examples utilize intra-day 15-min sampled data from this medium-sized Asia Pacific equity and derivative exchange. Both the intra- and inter-day patterns in the Hong Kong market are allowed for in the estimation process.

Realized volatility and correlation in grain futures markets: testing for spillover effects

Fluctuations in commodity prices are a major concern to many market participants. This paper uses realized volatility methods to calculate daily volatility and correlation estimates for three grain futures prices (corn, soybean, and wheat). The realized volatility estimates exhibit properties consistent with the stylized facts observed in earlier studies. According to daily realized correlations and regression coefficients, the spot returns from the three grain futures are positively related. The realized estimates are then used to evaluate the degree of volatility transmission across grain futures prices. The impulse response analysis is conducted by fitting the vector autoregressive model to realized volatility and correlation estimates, using the bootstrap method for statistical inference. The results indicate that rich dynamic interactions exist among the volatilities and correlations across the grain futures markets.

The trading dynamics of close-substitute futures markets : evidence of margin policy spillover effects

Volatility spillover is well documented among closely related securities. I investigate the relationship between margin policy and trading dynamics of the Nikkei 225 index futures markets of Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE) and Singapore Exchange (SGX). I find that OSE’s margin policy influences trading dynamics across both markets, although it is the less liquid SGX market that performs price discovery. This suggests that policy markers of close substitute markets should coordinate, or at least communicate policy intentions due to policy spillover. SGX’s market design facilitates price discovery, suggesting that a microstructure framework capable of overcoming the liquidity entry barrier is of interest to any futures exchange contemplating contract proliferation.

Solving the halloween indictor puzzle : market efficiency still reigns

Prior research by Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) document unusually high monthly returns over the period November-April for both United States (U.S.) and foreign stock markets and label this phenomenon the Halloween effect. The implication is that the Halloween effect represents an exploitable anomaly, which has negative implications for stock market efficiency. We extend this research to the S&P 500 futures contract and find no evidence of an exploitable Halloween effect over the period April 1982 through April 2003. Re-examining Bouman and Jacobsen’s empirical results for the U.S., we find that two outliers drive their results. These two outliers are associated with the “Crash” in October 1987 and collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in August 1998. After inserting a dummy variable to account for the impact of the two identified outliers, the Halloween effect disappears.

Stock market efficiency withstands another challenge : solving the “sell in May/buy after Halloween” puzzle

Examining the years 1970 to 1998, Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) document unusually high monthly returns during the November-April periods for both United States (U.S.) and foreign stock markets and label this phenomenon the Halloween effect. Their research suggests that the Halloween effect represents an exploitable anomaly and has negative implications for claims of stock market efficiency.

Re-examining Bouman and Jacobsen’s empirical results for the U.S. reveals that their results are driven by two outliers, the “Crash” of October 1987 and the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in August 1998. After inserting a dummy variable to account for the impact of the two identified outliers, the Halloween effect becomes statistically insignificant. This anomaly is not economically exploitable for U.S. equity markets. We extend the research to the S&P 500 futures contract and find no evidence of an exploitable Halloween effect over the period April 1982-April 2003.

Optimal hedge ration with moving least squares - an empirical study using Indian single stock futures data

The use of commodity, currency and stock index futures to hedge risky exposures in the underlying assets is well documented in financial literature. However single stock futures are a relatively new addition to the family of futures and as such, academic research on its use as a hedging tool is relatively thin. In this study we have explored the efficacy of two different methodological approaches that may be applied when hedging a long position in the underlying stock with a single stock future. We use daily trading data covering years 2002 to 2007 from the Indian market, where single stock futures have been really thriving in terms of volume of trade, to extract the optimal hedge ratios using both static OLS as well as 30-day, 60-day and 90-day moving least squares. The method of moving least squares has been in use by market practitioners for some time primarily as a trend analysis and charting tool. Our results indicate that the moving least squares approach outperforms the static OLS in terms of the hedging efficiency, which has been measured by the root mean square hedging error.

Broadband futures : content, connectivity and control

This introduction to the Broadband Futures: Content, Connectivity and Control special issue begins with the claim that we are at the start of a new period of debate and analysis about network infrastructure and use that declares government failure and reinvigorates the drive to a free-market solution in Australia and New Zealand. But questions remain about the effectiveness and social value of network developments, regardless of the degree of government investment and regulation. As canvassed in this introduction, and the articles that make up the special issue, we can only move forward, both in research and practical implementation, if we accept the intricate weaving together of past, present and future interactions between governments, service providers and their consumers in broadband development

RP94-217 No. 18 Use of Crop Futures and Options by the Nontrader

Crop producers make a number of decisions that are market related. They may be categorized as financial decisions, production decisions, or marketing decisions. All three decisions depend on what prices are likely to be at some specific time in the future. The marketing decisions is complex. This research publication discusses the number of alternatives that are available even for the producer who does not directly buy or sell futures or options contracts.

Agricultural commodities pricing model applied to the Brazilian sugar market

This article suggests a pricing model for commodities used to produce biofuel. The model is based on the concept that the deterministic component of the Wiener process is not constant and depends on time and exogenous variables. The model, which incorporates theory of storage, the convenience yield and the seasonality of harvests, was applied in the Brazilian sugar market. After predictions were made with the Kalman filter, the model produced results that were statistically more accurate than those returned by the two-factor model available in the literature.

Discretionary-based disclosure: evidence from the Brazilian market

The primary objective of this paper is to identify the factors that explain Brazilian companies level of voluntary disclosure. Underpinning this work is the Discretionary-based Disclosure theory. The sample is composed of the top 100 largest non-financial companies listed in the Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Brazilian Securities, Commodities, and Futures exchange - BOVESPA). Information was gathered from Financial Statements for the years ending in 2006, 2007, and 2008, with the use of content analysis. A disclosure framework based on 27 studies from these years was created, with a total of 92 voluntary items divided into two dimensions: economic (43) and socio-environmental (49). Based on the existing literature, a total of 12 hypotheses were elaborated and tested using a panel data approach. Results evidence that: (a) Sector and Origin of Control are statistically significant in all three models tested: economic, socio-environmental, and total; (b) Profitability is relevant in the economic model and in the total model; (c) Tobin s Q is relevant in the socio-environmental model and in the total disclosure model; (d) Leverage and Auditing Firm are only relevant in the economic disclosure model; (e) Size, Governance, Stock Issuing, Growth Opportunities and Concentration of Control are not statistically significant in any of the three models.