Investment funds: What next?

Investment funds provide a low cost method of sharing in the rewards from capitalism. Recently “alternative investments” such as hedge funds have grown rapidly and the trading strategies open to hedge funds are now becoming available to mutual funds and even to ordinary retail investors. In this paper we analyze problems in assessing fund performance and the prospects for investment fund sectors. Choosing genuine outperformers among top funds requires a careful assessment of non-normality, order statistics and the possibility of false discoveries. The risk adjusted performance of the average hedge fund over the last 10-15 is actually not that impressive, although the “top” funds do appear to have statistically significant positive alphas.

Liquidity risk and the performance of UK mutual funds

We examine the role of liquidity risk, both as a stock characteristic as well as systematic liquidity risk, in UK mutual fund performance for the first time. Using four alternative measures of stock liquidity we extract principal components across stocks in order to construct systematic or market liquidity factors. We find that on average UK mutual funds are tilted towards liquid stocks (except for small stock funds as might be expected) but that, counter-intuitively, liquidity as a stock characteristic is positively priced in the cross-section of fund performance. We find that systematic liquidity risk is positively priced in the cross-section of fund performance. Overall, our results reveal a strong role for stock liquidity level and systematic liquidity risk in fund performance evaluation models.

Are State legislatures responding to public opinion when allocating funds for tobacco control programs?

This study explored the factors associated with state-level allocations to tobacco-control programs. The primary research question was whether public sentiment regarding tobacco control was a significant factor in the states' 2001 budget decisions. In addition to public opinion, several additional political and economic measures were considered. Significant associations were found between our outcome, state-level tobacco-control funding per capita, and key variables of interest including public opinion, amount of tobacco settlement received, the party affiliation of the governor, the state's smoking rate, excise tax revenue received, and whether the state was a major producer of tobacco. The findings from this study supported our hypothesis that states with citizens who favor more restrictive indoor air policies allocate more to tobacco control. Effective public education to change public opinion and the cultural norms surrounding smoking may affect political decisions and, in turn, increase funding for crucial public health programs.

Health status of an elderly population in Sharpeville, South Africa

The objective of this cross-sectional study was a comprehensive nutrition and health assessment to provide a basis for future intervention strategies for an elderly population attending a day-care centre. Socio-demographic, health and 24-hour recall dietary intake questionnaires were administered and anthropometric and biochemical measurements taken. The results indicate that the majority of respondents had an income of between R501 and R1 000 (South African rand) per month and most of them reported an occasional lack of funds to meet basic household needs, confirming the presence of food insecurity. Daily dietary intakes (mean [+ or -] Standard Deviation [SD]) of the women were 5 395 [+ or -] 2 946 kJ energy, 47 [+ or -] 27 g protein, 28 [+ or -] 21 g fat and 196 [+ or -] 123 g carbohydrates compared to 8 641 [+ or -] 3 799 kJ, 86 [+ or -] 48 g, 49 [+ or -] 32 g and 301 [+ or -] 139 g of the men, respectively. The majority (83.6%) of the women were overweight (body mass index [BMI] [greater than or equal to] 25) or obese (BMI [greater than or equal to] 30) whilst 78% had a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of [greater than or equal to] 21.7 cm. Mean intakes of micronutrients were low in comparison to reference standards and serum zinc levels were suboptimal. Obesity, hypertension and raised total serum cholesterol levels indicated an increased risk for coronary heart disease. It can be concluded that a low income, household food insecurity and risk factors associated with malnutrition and non-communicable diseases were prevalent in this elderly population. OPSOMMING Die doelwit van hierdie dwarssnitstudie was ‘n omvattende bepaling van voeding- en gesondheidstatus om as basis te dien vir toekomstige intervensiestrategieë vir ’n groep bejaardes wat ’n dagsentrum besoek. Sosiodemografiese, gesondheid- en 24-uur herroep-dieetinname vraelyste is voltooi en antropometriese en biochemiese metings is geneem. Die resultate het bevestig dat die meerderheid respondente ‘n maandelikse inkomste van tussen R501 en R1 000 (Suid-Afrikaanse rand) gehad het. Die meeste het ‘n geldtekort vir basiese huishoudelike behoeftes gerapporteer wat dui op huishoudelike voedselinsekuriteit. Daaglikse dieetinnames (gemiddeld±standaardafwyking [SA]) van die vroue was onderskeidelik 5 395±2 946 kJ energie, 47±27 g proteïen, 28±21 g vet en 196±123 g koolhidrate in vergelyking met 8 641±3 799 kJ, 86±48 g, 49±32 g en 301±139 g vir die mans. Die meerderheid (83.6%) van die vroue was oorgewig (liggaamsmassa-indeks [LMI] >25) of vetsugtig (LMI > 30) en 78% het ’n middel-bo-armomtrek (MUAC) van > 21.7 cm gehad. Gemiddelde mikronutriëntinnames was laag in vergelyking met die verwysingstandaarde en serumsink was suboptimaal. Vetsug, hipertensie en verhoogde totale serumcholesterolvlakke het op ‘n verhoogde risiko van kardiovaskulêre siekte gedui. Die resultate het dus bewys dat lae inkomste, huishoudelike voedselinsekuriteit en die risikofaktore wat met wanvoeding en leefstylsiektes geassosieer word, teenwoordig was.

The performance and persistence of exchange-traded funds: evidence for iShares MSCI country-specific ETFs

The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance and persistence of 20 iShares MSCI country-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in comparison with S&P 500 index over the period July 2001 to June 2006. There are several studies analysing mutual funds performance in past years, but very little is known about ETFs. In our analysis the Sharpe, Treynor and Sortino ratios are used as risk-adjusted performance measures. To evaluate performance persistence and therefore if there is any relationship among past performance and future performance, we apply to the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient and the Winner-loser Contingency Table. The main findings are at two levels. First, ETFs can beat the U.S. market index based on risk-adjusted performance measures. Second, there is evidence of ETFs performance persistence based on annual return.

Infrastructure, the crisis, and pension funds

Infrastructure investment has been an important element in the economic stimulus packages introduced to try and deal with the effects of the recession. It is reinforced by the need to develop sustainable energy sources, and by the development needs of countries in the south. Public sector finance – tax revenues and bonds – remain the main way of financing such investment. The use of PPP projects to finance and operate infrastructure services, and the development of infrastructure funds as a way of investing in them, are both dangerous and unnecessary.

The production and characterisation of dinitrocarbanilide antibodies raised using antigen mimics.

Polyclonal antibodies were produced to detect the coccidiostat nicarbazin. Due to structural constraints of the active component of nicarbazin, dinitrocarbanilide (DNC), three different compounds that shared a common substructure with DNC were used as antigen mimics. The compounds (N-suceinyl-L-alanyl-L-alanyl-L-alanine 4-nitroanilide (SAN), L-glutamic acid gamma-(p-nitroanilide) (GAN) and p-nitrosuccinanilic acid (NSA)) were conjugated to a carrier protein and used in the immunisation of rabbits. Five different polyclonal sera were produced and consequently characterised. The antibodies exhibited an IC50 range of 2.3-7.6 ng/ml using a competitive ELISA procedure, Serum from one rabbit, R555, exhibited an IC50 of 2.9 ng/ml for DNC and cross-reactivity studies showed that this serum was specific for DNC and did not cross-react with other coccidiostats such as halofuginone, toltrazuril or ronidazole. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Solar forcing of climate change during the mid-Holocene: indications from raised bogs in the Netherlands.

Two cores of mid-Holocene raised-bog deposits from the Netherlands were 14C wiggle-match dated at high precision. Changes in local moisture conditions were inferred from the changing species composition of consecutive series of macrofossil samples. Several wet-shifts were inferred, and these were often coeval with major rises in the D14C archive (probably caused by major declines in solar activity). The use of D14C as a proxy for changes in solar activity is validated. This paper adds to the increasing body of evidence that solar variability forced climatic changes during the Holocene.

Persistently raised C-reactive protein levels are associated with advanced periodontal disease

Objective: The aim was to investigate whether there was an association between periodontitis or tooth loss in a homogeneous group of 60-70-year-old Western European men and either a sustained high or low level of C-reactive protein (CRP).
Material and Methods: Men enrolled in a cohort study of cardiovascular disease in Northern Ireland were screened in 1990-1994 and rescreened in 2001-2004, when a periodontal examination was completed. High-sensitivity CRP was measured from fasting blood samples. There were 806 men with six or more teeth who had either a high level (>3 mg/l) or a lower level of CRP at both time points. Multivariate analysis was carried out using logistic regression with adjustment for possible confounders. Models were constructed with the CRP level as the outcome variable and various measures of periodontal status (low and high threshold periodontitis) or tooth loss as predictor variables. Confounders included in the analysis were known cardiovascular risk factors of age, smoking, diabetes, BMI and socioeconomic status.
Results: There were 67 men who had a high value of CRP (>3 mg/l) and 739 men who had a CRP value =3 mg/l at both time points. The unadjusted odds ratio (OR) for advanced periodontitis to be associated with high CRP was 3.62, p=0.0003. The association was somewhat attenuated but remained significant (OR=2.49, p=0.02) after adjustment for confounders. A high level of tooth loss was also associated with high CRP with an adjusted OR of 2.17, p=0.008. Low threshold periodontitis was not associated with the level of CRP.
Conclusion: There was an association between advanced periodontitis and elevated CRP levels as measured at two time points at a 10-year interval in the 60-70-year-old European males investigated. This association was adjusted for various cardiovascular risk factors. There was also an association between high levels of tooth loss and high CRP in the men studied.