Forging the synergy between anticipation and innovation : the futures action model

This paper presents the theory and practice of the Futures Action Model (FAM). FAM has been in development for over a decade, in a number of contexts and iterations. It is a creative methodology that uses a variety of concepts and tools to guide participants through the conception and modeling of enterprises, services, social innovations and projects in the context of emerging futures. It is used to generate strategic options that people can utilise to build opportunities for value creation as they move into the future. This paper details examples in its development, and provides theoretical and practical guidelines for educators and business facilitators to use the FAM system in their own workplaces.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Educating for digital futures : what the learning strategies of digital media professionals can teach higher education

This article explores how universities might engage more effectively with the imperative to develop students’ 21st century skills for the information society, by examining learning challenges and professional learning strategies of successful digital media professionals. The findings of qualitative interviews with professionals from Australian games, online publishing, apps and software development companies reinforce an increasing body of literature that suggests that legacy university structures and pedagogical approaches are not conducive to learning for professional capability in the digital age. Study participants were ambivalent about the value of higher education to digital careers, in general preferring a range of situated online and face-to-face social learning strategies for professional currency. This article draws upon the learning preferences of the professionals in this study to present a model of 21st century learning, as linked with extant theory relating to informal, self-determined learning and communities of practice.

Urban food futures : ICTs and opportunities

Food is a vital foundation of all human life. It is essential to a myriad of political, socio-cultural, economic and environmental practices throughout history. As Kaplan [1] contends, “the scholarship on food has real pedigree.” Today, practices of food production, consumption and distribution have the potential to go through immensely transformative shifts as network technologies become increasingly embedded in every domain of contemporary life. This presents unique opportunities for further scholarly exploration on this topic, which this special issue intends to address. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are one of the pillars of contemporary global functionality and sustenance and undoubtedly will continue to present new challenges and opportunities for the future. As such, this special issue of Futures has been brought together to address challenges and opportunities at the intersection of food and ICTs. In particular, the edition asks, what are the key roles that network technologies play in re-shaping social and economic networks of food?

'Not a Local Win': Rural Australian perceptions of the sustainable impacts of forest plantations

Australian forestry plantations have doubled in the past 15 years, with rural communities harbouring a diverse range of positive and negative of economic, environmental and social impacts – the so-called triple bottom line (TBL). Utilising two Australian rural communities in Eden/Gippsland and Tasmania as qualitative case studies, this research explores how 23 non-forestry affiliated rural residents perceived and experienced the TBL economic, environmental and social impacts of plantation forestry. Residents criticised the economic plantation forestry benefits because of lengthy periods of inactivity and limited local employment, explaining that their community was reliant on the industry yet the promised economic benefits had never fully materialised. There was a sense the industry ‘plant and walk away.’ Residents were concerned about the environment impact on water quality, water tables and fire hazards, although they praised plantation forestry for carbon sequestering, eradicating erosion and water run-off. Negative social impacts were described, specifically how the land-use change from farming to forestry had significantly reduced the local population, employment and need for services. Natural resource management and communication strategies are offered, derived from non-forestry affiliated rural resident perspectives on how best to ensure sustainable forest development in their community.

Linkages among the US energy futures markets

This study investigates the price linkage among the US major energy sources, considering structural breaks in time series, to provide information for diversifying the US energy sources. We find that only a weak linkage sustains among crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, coal, natural gas, uranium and ethanol futures prices. This implies that the US major energy source markets are not integrated as one primary energy market. Our tests also reveal that uranium and ethanol futures prices have very weak linkages with other major energy source prices. This indicates that the US energy market is still at a stage where none of the probable alternative energy source markets are playing the role as substitute or complement markets for the fossil fuel energy markets.

Testing the effects of the Japanese vehicle emission-control law on the international palladium futures market

This paper tested the effects of the 2005 vehicle emission-control law issued in Japan on the market linkages between the U.S. and Japanese palladium futures markets, To determine these effects, we applied a cointegration test both with and without break points in the time series and found that the market linkages between the two countries changed after the break in October 2005. Our results show that the 2005 long-term regulation of vehicle emissions enacted in Japan influenced the international palladium futures market.

Tests on price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets

We tested the price linkage, the law of one price (LOP) condition, and the causality of the price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets with consideration of structural breaks in the price series. The LOP condition did not hold for both the gold and silver markets when structural breaks were not considered but it sustained in some periods when it was tested for the break periods. We found from the causality test that the price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets were led by the U.S. market.

Testing the international linkage in the platinum-group metal futures markets

This study tests whether an international market exists in the platinum-group metal (PGM) futures markets. For this purpose, we tested the law of one price (LOP) and the causality between the U.S. and Japanese platinum and palladium futures markets. We also performed the test when structural breaks are considered. Long-run price relationships were found in both platinum and palladium markets but the LOP only sustained in the palladium market. The causality test revealed that it is the U.S. market that leads the price to transmit information between the U.S. and Japanese markets. Structural breaks had large impacts on the test results, suggesting that incorporating breaks is important when investigating the international price linkage in the PGM futures markets.

Price linkages in the copper futures, primary, and scrap markets

This study investigates how markets for different levels of copper purity are interrelated by testing the long-run price linkage and causalities among the copper futures, primary, copper scrap, and brass scrap markets. It is expected that copper markets that deal with high purity levels, such as the futures, primary, and copper scrap markets, have a long-run relationship. However, brass scrap markets where copper with a lower purity is traded may not have a price linkage with other copper markets. The results reveal that a long-run relationship holds between the futures, primary, and copper scrap markets but the brass scrap market does not have a long-run relationship with the other markets. From the short-run and long-run causality tests, we determine that the futures market plays an important role in transmitting price information to other copper markets while such information flow is not found for the brass scrap market.

100 futures now : designing sustainable futures

This presentation tells the story of an initiative in middle schooling at Kelvin Grove State College that begins in the Art studios, but reaches out to other disciplines and approaches, and to community and industry partners. It is inspired by the potential of 'future thinking' to become a compelling focus in contemporary art and design. Ethically it espouses a simple premise": every student in our classrooms now has a stake in creating livable, democratic and creative futures. Every student has the potential to be an active force in making that future. "100 Futures Now" is a project that envisages creative and imaginative students working in collaboration with artists and designers to visualize amazing futures and communicate their vision through art and design. "100 Futures Now" is one in a series of innovative curriculum initiatives at Kelvin Grove State College designed to build sustainable practice in arts education with the support of partners in industry and universities and with resident artists and designers. The model blends elements of art and design methodology to focus on the critical and creative thinking skills prioritised in ACARA and 21st century curriculum. The organisers are developing a sustainable model for working with resident artists that goes beyond a single arts intervention or extension/enrichment experience. In this model artists and designers are collaborators in the design of learning experiences that support future programs. This model also looks to transfer the benefits of residencies to the wider school community (in this case to middle schooling curriculum) and to teachers in other curriculum areas, and not exclusively to the immediate target group. In "100 Futures Now", story-making is the engine that powers the creative process. For this reason the program uses a series of imaginative scenarios, including those of speculative fiction and science, as departure points for inquiry, and applies the methodologies of arts and design practice to explore and express student story telling and story making. The story-making responses of student teams will naturally be expressed multimodally through visual art, design artifacts, installation, performance and digital works. The project’s focus on narratives and its modes of communication (performance/installation) are inspired by the work of experimental contemporary design practices and the speculative scenarios of U.K. based designers Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby. Thanks to the support of an Arts Queensland Artist-in -Residence grant in 2014, resident artists and designers who work with a diversity of ideas and approaches ranging over science, bio-ethics, biodiversity, behavior and ethics, ambient sound, urbanism, food, and wearable design, will work with middle school students as catalysts for deeper thinking and creative action. All these rich fields for future speculation will become triggers for team inquiry into the deeper connections between the past, the present, and future challenges such as climate, waste, energy, sustainability and resilience. These imagined futures will form the platform for a critical, sustainability/design futures approach that will involve questioning assumptions and empowering students as agents rather than consumers of change.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.