Chemistry–climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes

The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 6 0.07 K decade21 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 Kdecade21 at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twenty-first century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces awestward acceleration of the lower-stratosphericwind over theAntarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation throughout the depth of the stratosphere, which reduces the mean age of air nearly everywhere at a rate of about 0.05 yr decade21 in those models with this diagnostic. On average, the annual mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere (;70 hPa) increases by almost 2% decade21, with 59% of this trend forced by the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag in the models. This is a consequence of the eastward acceleration of the subtropical jets, which increases the upward flux of (parameterized) momentum reaching the lower stratosphere in these latitudes.

Beyond Bretton Woods: what international monetary and financial system for the twenty-first century?

Includes bibliography

A model of cooperation for the twenty-first century

Prólogo de Alicia Bárcena (CEPAL) y Dorothee Fiedler (BMZ)

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

Neostructuralism and heterodox thinking in Latin America and the Caribbean in the early twenty-first century

The thinking that has unilaterally dominated economic science for over five decades has recently come under intensive scrutiny and its validity and conceptual and empirical coherence are the subject of controversy. Thus the limitations of the prevailing paradigm for addressing the failures of free market economies have been laid bare. For Latin America and the Caribbean, these failures are structural in nature, as indeed structuralism proposed in its time. Neostructuralism delves more deeply into the issues addressed in structuralism, aiming to improve positioning in the international economy, boost productive employment creation, reduce structural heterogeneity and improve income distribution, while maintaining financial balances capable of sustaining changes in the sphere of production by means of social and State support. Far from being an insular system of thinking, neostructuralism is an open system that lends itself to dialogue with other philosophies that recognize the limitations of the dominant paradigm and object to its methodological monism. This book offers a fresh look at neostructuralism and heterodox thinking at the start of the twenty-first century. In a context shaped by the impacts of the worst economic and financial crisis since the Great Depression and by paradigmatic changes at the global level, it aims to carve out arenas for discussion between alternative lines of thinking in order to lay the foundations for a socioeconomically inclusive and environmentally sustainable model of development for the region.

Marine cage culture and the environment: twenty-first century science informing a sustainable industry

Technological innovation has made it possible to grow marine finfish in the coastal and open ocean. Along with this opportunity comes environmental risk. As a federal agency charged with stewardship of the nation’s marine resources, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) requires tools to evaluate the benefits and risks that aquaculture poses in the marine environment, to implement policies and regulations which safeguard our marine and coastal ecosystems, and to inform production designs and operational procedures compatible with marine stewardship. There is an opportunity to apply the best available science and globally proven best management practices to regulate and guide a sustainable United States (U.S.) marine finfish farming aquaculture industry. There are strong economic incentives to develop this industry, and doing so in an environmentally responsible way is possible if stakeholders, the public and regulatory agencies have a clear understanding of the relative risks to the environment and the feasible solutions to minimize, manage or eliminate those risks. This report spans many of the environmental challenges that marine finfish aquaculture faces. We believe that it will serve as a useful tool to those interested in and responsible for the industry and safeguarding the health, productivity and resilience of our marine ecosystems. This report aims to provide a comprehensive review of some predominant environmental risks that marine fish cage culture aquaculture, as it is currently conducted, poses in the marine environment and designs and practices now in use to address these environmental risks in the U.S. and elsewhere. Today’s finfish aquaculture industry has learned, adapted and improved to lessen or eliminate impacts to the marine habitats in which it operates. What progress has been made? What has been learned? How have practices changed and what are the results in terms of water quality, benthic, and other environmental effects? To answer these questions we conducted a critical review of the large body of scientific work published since 2000 on the environmental impacts of marine finfish aquaculture around the world. Our report includes results, findings and recommendations from over 420 papers, primarily from peer-reviewed professional journals. This report provides a broad overview of the twenty-first century marine finfish aquaculture industry, with a targeted focus on potential impacts to water quality, sediment chemistry, benthic communities, marine life and sensitive habitats. Other environmental issues including fish health, genetic issues, and feed formulation were beyond the scope of this report and are being addressed in other initiatives and reports. Also absent is detailed information about complex computer simulations that are used to model discharge, assimilation and accumulation of nutrient waste from farms. These tools are instrumental for siting and managing farms, and a comparative analysis of these models is underway by NOAA.

English in the urban environment : resources for 21st century readers

Where teachers of English as a foreign language (EFL) once observed a paucity of authentic language input, public displays of written English are now proliferating. Ideas for capitalising on this abundance can be drawn from two strands of pedagogic thought: a psycholinguistic approach to conventional literacy long established in foreign, second and first language education (e.g., Teng, 2009), and a more recent and critical approach informed by diverse theoretical understandings of the ‘linguistic landscape’ (e.g., Rowland, 2013). In this paper I draw from these two approaches to suggest ways of helping EFL learners use environmental print to develop knowledge and skills required of English readers in the twenty-first century: (1) fluency in breaking the codes of English and other languages of publicly displayed text; (2) facility with making meaning as the English of these texts becomes ever more diverse in cultural, historical and contextual implication; (3) use of environmental English in contexts that range from the local to the transnational; and (4) critique of the presence of English and attendant worldviews in the urban environment (Chern & Dooley, forthcoming). The psychological concept of motivation and the complementary sociological concept of investment are at the heart of my deliberations here: realisation of the pedagogic potential of environmental print to develop literate resources requires consideration of sources of motivation in the classroom learning situation (Dörnyei & Ushioda, 2011), as well as learner investment in literate practices in English (Norton, 2010).

Political feminism: Activist art in Australia in 2015

Brisbane-based artist and Founding Co-Director of LEVEL artist run initiative Courtney Coombs discusses feminist activist art practice in Australia. Recent discussions both in the art world and beyond have increased the profile and demystified the notion of feminism in the twenty-first century, and the term has once again become integrated into mainstream discussion internationally and in Australia. Now that pop music star Taylor Swift has declared herself a feminist, you could be persuaded that the 'f' word has finally become socially acceptable. However, while many artists have adopted the feminist label across the country, it often feels like feminism has become a lifestyle choice rather than a political one. When the badge is so readily worn by many, society can be fooled into thinking that there is no more work to be done. With the 'f' word once again acceptable while the 'p' word (patriarchy) remains so pass , how are artists responding to the changed conditions but continued imposition of what bell hooks has described as the 'imperialist white supremacist capitalist patriarchy'?

Twenty-first-century climate impacts from a declining Arctic sea ice cover

A steady decline in Arctic sea ice has been observed over recent decades. General circulation models predict further decreases under increasing greenhouse gas scenarios. Sea ice plays an important role in the climate system in that it influences ocean-to-atmosphere fluxes, surface albedo, and ocean buoyancy. The aim of this study is to isolate the climate impacts of a declining Arctic sea ice cover during the current century. The Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) is forced with observed sea ice from 1980 to 2000 (obtained from satellite passive microwave radiometer data derived with the Bootstrap algorithm) and predicted sea ice reductions until 2100 under one moderate scenario and one severe scenario of ice decline, with a climatological SST field and increasing SSTs. Significant warming of the Arctic occurs during the twenty-first century (mean increase of between 1.6° and 3.9°C), with positive anomalies of up to 22°C locally. The majority of this is over ocean and limited to high latitudes, in contrast to recent observations of Northern Hemisphere warming. When a climatological SST field is used, statistically significant impacts on climate are only seen in winter, despite prescribing sea ice reductions in all months. When correspondingly increasing SSTs are incorporated, changes in climate are seen in both winter and summer, although the impacts in summer are much smaller. Alterations in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns are more widespread than temperature, extending down to midlatitude storm tracks. Results suggest that areas of Arctic land ice may even undergo net accumulation due to increased precipitation that results from loss of sea ice. Intensification of storm tracks implies that parts of Europe may experience higher precipitation rates.