Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

p53 prevents progression of nevi to melanoma predominantly through cell cycle regulation

p53 is the central member of a critical tumor suppressor pathway in virtually all tumor types, where it is silenced mainly by missense mutations. In melanoma, p53 predominantly remains wild type, thus its role has been neglected. To study the effect of p53 on melanocyte function and melanomagenesis, we crossed the 'high-p53'Mdm4+/- mouse to the well-established TP-ras0/+ murine melanoma progression model. After treatment with the carcinogen dimethylbenzanthracene (DMBA), TP-ras0/+ mice on the Mdm4+/- background developed fewer tumors with a delay in the age of onset of melanomas compared to TP-ras0/+ mice. Furthermore, we observed a dramatic decrease in tumor growth, lack of metastasis with increased survival of TP-ras0/+: Mdm4+/- mice. Thus, p53 effectively prevented the conversion of small benign tumors to malignant and metastatic melanoma. p53 activation in cultured primary melanocyte and melanoma cell lines using Nutlin-3, a specific Mdm2 antagonist, supported these findings. Moreover, global gene expression and network analysis of Nutlin-3-treated primary human melanocytes indicated that cell cycle regulation through the p21WAF1/CIP1 signaling network may be the key anti-melanomagenic activity of p53.

Acetabular impaction grafting in total hip replacement

Background and purpose: Acetabular impaction grafting has been shown to have excellent results, but concerns regarding its suitability for larger defects have been highlighted. We report the use of this technique in a large cohort of patients with the aim of better understanding the limitations of the technique. Methods: We investigated a consecutive group of 339 cases of impaction grafting of the cup with morcellised impacted allograft bone for survivorship and mechanisms for early failure. Results: Kaplan Meier survival was 89.1% (95% CI 83.2 to 95.0%) at 5.8 years for revision for any reason, and 91.6% (95% CI 85.9 to 97.3%) for revision for aseptic loosening of the cup. Of the 15 cases revised for aseptic cup loosening, nine were large rim mesh reconstructions, two were fractured Kerboull-Postel plates, two were migrating cages, one medial wall mesh failure and one impaction alone failed. Interpretation: In our series, results were disappointing where a large rim mesh or significant reconstruction was required. In light of these results, our technique has changed in that we now use predominantly larger chips of purely cancellous bone, 8-10 mm3 in size, to fill the cavity and larger diameter cups to better fill the mouth of the reconstructed acetabulum. In addition we now make greater use of i) implants made of a highly porous in-growth surface to constrain allograft chips and ii) bulk allografts combined with cages and morcellised chips in cases with very large segmental and cavitary defects.

The life-cycle of the fashion garment and the role of Australian mass market designers

This paper uses the lens of life-cycle thinking to discuss recent developments in the Australian mass market fashion industry, and to explore the opportunities and barriers to implementing lifecycle thinking within mass market design processes. Life-cycle analysis is a quantitative tool used to assess the environmental impact of a material or product. However the underlying thinking of life-cycle analysis can also be employed more generally, enabling a designer to assess their processes and design decisions for sustainability. A fashion designer employing life cycle thinking would consider every stage in the life of a garment from fibre and textiles through to consumer use, to eventual disposal and beyond disposal to reuse and later disassembly for fibre recycling. Although life-cycle thinking is rarely considered in the design processes of the fast-paced, price-driven mass market, this paper explores its potential and suggests ways in which it could be implemented.

Simulation of ankle joint forces to optimize total ankle replacement design

When compared with other arthoplasties, Total Ankle Joint Replacement (TAR) is much less successful. Attempts to remedy this situation by modifying the implant design, for example by making its form more akin to the original ankle anatomy, have largely met with failure. One of the major obstacles is a gap in current knowledge relating to ankle joint force. Specifically this is the lack of reliable data quantifying forces and moments acting on the ankle, in both the healthy and diseased joints. The limited data that does exist is thought to be inaccurate [1] and is based upon simplistic two dimensional discrete and outdated techniques.

Public participation in infrastructure and construction projects in China: From an EIA-based to a whole-cycle process

Many governments world-wide are increasingly encouraging the involvement of interested individuals, groups and organisations in their publicinfrastructure and construction (PIC) projects as a means of improving the openness, transparency and accountability of the decision-making process and help improve the projects’ long-term viability and benefits to the community. In China, however, the current participatory mechanism at the project level exists only as part of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process. With an increasing demand for PIC projects and social equality in China, this suggests a need to bring the participatory process into line with international practice. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to identify the weaknesses of EIA-basedpublicparticipation in China and the means by which it may be improved for the whole lifecycle of PIC schemes. To do this, the results of a series of interviews with a diverse group of experts is reported which analyse the nature and extent of existing problems of publicparticipation in EIA and suggestions for improvement. These indicate that the current level of participation in PIC projects is quite limited, particularly in the crucial earlier stages, primarily due to traditional culture and values, uneven progress in the adoption of participatory mechanisms, the risk of not meeting targets and lack of confidence in public competence. Finally, aprocess flowchart is proposed to guide construction practitioners and the community in general.

Spectrum sensing using two-stage detection to compensate for reduced primary user duty cycle

Spectrum sensing is considered to be one of the most important tasks in cognitive radio. One of the common assumption among current spectrum sensing detectors is the full presence or complete absence of the primary user within the sensing period. In reality, there are many situations where the primary user signal only occupies a portion of the observed signal and the assumption of primary user duty cycle not necessarily fulfilled. In this paper we show that the true detection performance can degrade from the assumed achievable values when the observed primary user exhibits a certain duty cycle. Therefore, a two-stage detection method incorporating primary user duty cycle that enhances the detection performance is proposed. The proposed detector can improve the probability of detection under low duty cycle at the expense of a small decrease in performance at high duty cycle.

The pomegranate cycle : reconfiguring opera through performance, technology & composition

The Pomegranate Cycle is a practice-led enquiry consisting of a creative work and an exegesis. This project investigates the potential of self-directed, technologically mediated composition as a means of reconfiguring gender stereotypes within the operatic tradition. This practice confronts two primary stereotypes: the positioning of female performing bodies within narratives of violence and the absence of women from authorial roles that construct and regulate the operatic tradition. The Pomegranate Cycle redresses these stereotypes by presenting a new narrative trajectory of healing for its central character, and by placing the singer inside the role of composer and producer. During the twentieth and early twenty-first century, operatic and classical music institutions have resisted incorporating works of living composers into their repertory. Consequently, the canon’s historic representations of gender remain unchallenged. Historically and contemporarily, men have almost exclusively occupied the roles of composer, conductor, director and critic, and therefore men have regulated the pedagogy, performance practices, repertoire and organisations that sustain classical music. In this landscape, women are singers, and few have the means to challenge the constructions of gender they are asked to reproduce. The Pomegranate Cycle uses recording technologies as the means of driving change because these technologies have already challenged the regulation of the classical tradition by changing people’s modes of accessing, creating and interacting with music. Building on the work of artists including Phillips and van Veen, Robert Ashley and Diamanda Galas, The Pomegranate Cycle seeks to broaden the definition of what opera can be. This work examines the ways in which the operatic tradition can be hybridised with contemporary musical forms such as ambient electronica, glitch, spoken word and concrete sounds as a way of bringing the form into dialogue with contemporary music cultures. The ultilisation of other sound cultures within the context of opera enables women’s voices and stories to be presented in new ways, while also providing a point of friction with opera’s traditional storytelling devices. The Pomegranate Cycle simulates aesthetics associated with Western art music genres by drawing on contemporary recording techniques, virtual instruments and sound-processing plug-ins. Through such simulations, the work disrupts the way virtuosic human craft has been used to generate authenticity and regulate access to the institutions that protect and produce Western art music. The DIY approach to production, recording, composition and performance of The Pomegranate Cycle demonstrates that an opera can be realised by a single person. Access to the broader institutions which regulate the tradition are not necessary. In short, The Pomegranate Cycle establishes that a singer can be more than a voice and a performing body. She can be her own multimedia storyteller. Her audience can be anywhere.

Sustainability in road transport : an integrated life cycle analysis for estimating emissions

Despite of a significant contribution of transport sector in the global economy and society, it is one of the largest sources of global energy consumption, green house gas emissions and environmental pollutions. A complete look onto the whole life cycle environmental inventory of this sector will be helpful to generate a holistic understanding of contributory factors causing emissions. Previous studies were mainly based on segmental views which mostly compare environmental impacts of different modes of transport, but very few consider impacts other than the operational phase. Ignoring the impacts of non-operational phases, e.g., manufacture, construction, maintenance, may not accurately reflect total contributions on emissions. Moreover an integrated study for all motorized modes of road transport is also needed to achieve a holistic estimation. The objective of this study is to develop a component based life cycle inventory model which considers impacts of both operational and non-operational phases of the whole life as well as different transport modes. In particular, the whole life cycle of road transport has been segmented into vehicle, infrastructure, fuel and operational components and inventories have been conducted on each component. The inventory model has been demonstrated using the road transport of Singapore. Results show that total life cycle green house gas emissions from the road transport sector of Singapore is 7.8 million tons per year, among which operational phase and non-operational phases contribute about 55% and about 45%, respectively. Total amount of criteria air pollutants are 46, 8.5, 33.6, 13.6 and 2.6 thousand tons per year for CO, SO2, NOx, VOC and PM10, respectively. From the findings, it can be deduced that stringent government policies on emission control measures have a significant impact on reducing environmental pollutions. In combating global warming and environmental pollutions the promotion of public transport over private modes is an effective sustainable policy.

Simple rules to contain an invasive species with a complex life cycle and high dispersal capacity

Designing practical rules for controlling invasive species is a challenging task for managers, particularly when species are long-lived, have complex life cycles and high dispersal capacities. Previous findings derived from plant matrix population analyses suggest that effective control of long-lived invaders may be achieved by focusing on killing adult plants. However, the cost-effectiveness of managing different life stages has not been evaluated. We illustrate the benefits of integrating matrix population models with decision theory to undertake this evaluation, using empirical data from the largest infestation of mesquite (Leguminosae: Prosopis spp) within Australia. We include in our model the mesquite life cycle, different dispersal rates and control actions that target individuals at different life stages with varying costs, depending on the intensity of control effort. We then use stochastic dynamic programming to derive cost-effective control strategies that minimize the cost of controlling the core infestation locally below a density threshold and the future cost of control arising from infestation of adjacent areas via seed dispersal. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that four robust management rules guide the allocation of resources between mesquite life stages for this infestation: (i) When there is no seed dispersal, no action is required until density of adults exceeds the control threshold and then only control of adults is needed; (ii) when there is seed dispersal, control strategy is dependent on knowledge of the density of adults and large juveniles (LJ) and broad categories of dispersal rates only; (iii) if density of adults is higher than density of LJ, controlling adults is most cost-effective; (iv) alternatively, if density of LJ is equal or higher than density of adults, management efforts should be spread between adults, large and to a lesser extent small juveniles, but never saplings. Synthesis and applications.In this study, we show that simple rules can be found for managing invasive plants with complex life cycles and high dispersal rates when population models are combined with decision theory. In the case of our mesquite population, focussing effort on controlling adults is not always the most cost-effective way to meet our management objective.

Re-cementing in revision total hip replacement

Removal of well-fixed cement at revision surgery risks bone loss, cortical perforation and fracture, is time-consuming, technically demanding and carries increased risks for the patient. The cement-in-cement technique avoids these problems and when used appropriately has given favourable results at our centre when used on both the femoral and acetabular sides of the articulation. A modified technique has also been used in selected cases of infection and peri-prosthetic fracture. This chapter highlights the results to date and the operative techniques employed. It is essential to recognise that this technique relies fundamentally on the presence of a well-fixed cement mantle, and it is imperative that the criteria laid out are adhered to in order to achieve success. If there is loosening or lysis on the femoral side extending distal to the lesser trochanter or around more than just the periphery of the acetabular cement mantle, then alternative revision techniques should be employed.

Exeter short stems compared with standard length Exeter stems : experience from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

The standard Exeter stem has a length of 150mm with offsets 37.5mm to 56mm. Shorter stems of lengths 95mm, 115mm and 125mm with offsets 35.5mm or less are available for patients with smaller femurs. Concern has been raised regarding the behaviour of the smaller implants. This paper analysed data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry comparing survivorship of stems of offset 35.5mm or less with the standard stems of 37.5mm offset or greater. At seven years there was no significant difference in the Cumulative Percent Revision Rate in the short stems (3.4%, 95% CI 2.4-4.8%) compared with the standard length stems (3.5%, 95% CI 3.3-3.8%) despite its use in a greater proportion of potentially more difficult developmental dysplasia of the hip cases.