Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Constraints on the carbon cycle and climate during the early evolution of animals

One of the greatest challenges in science lies in disentangling causality in complex, coupled systems. This is illustrated no better than in the dynamic interplay between the Earth and life. The early evolution and diversification of animals occurred within a backdrop of global change, yet reconstructing the potential role of the environment in this evolutionary transition is challenging. In the 200 million years from the end-Cryogenian to the Ordovician, enigmatic Ediacaran fauna explored body plans, animals diversified and began to biomineralize, forever changing the ocean's chemical cycles, and the biological community in shallow marine ecosystems transitioned from a microbial one to an animal one.

In the following dissertation, a multi-faceted approach combining macro- and micro-scale analyses is presented that draws on the sedimentology, geochemistry and paleontology of the rocks that span this transition to better constrain the potential environmental changes during this interval.

In Chapter 1, the potential of clumped isotope thermometry in deep time is explored by assessing the importance of burial and diagenesis on the thermometer. Eocene- to Precambrian-aged carbonates from the Sultanate of Oman were analyzed from current burial depths of 350-5850 meters. Two end-member styles of diagenesis independent of burial depth were observed.

Chapters 2, 3 and 4 explore the fallibility of the Ediacaran carbon isotope record and aspects of the sedimentology and geochemistry of the rocks preserving the largest negative carbon isotope excursion on record---the Shuram Excursion. Chapter 2 documents the importance of temperature, fluid composition and mineralogy on the delta 18-O min record and interrogates the bulk trace metal signal. Chapter 3 explores the spatial variability in delta 13-C recorded in the transgressive Johnnie Oolite and finds a north-to-south trend recording the onset of the excursion. Chapter 4 investigates the nature of seafloor precipitation during this excursion and more broadly. We document the potential importance of microbial respiratory reactions on the carbonate chemistry of the sediment-water interface through time.

Chapter 5 investigates the latest Precambrian sedimentary record in carbonates from the Sultanate of Oman, including how delta 13-C and delta 34-S CAS vary across depositional and depth gradients. A new model for the correlation of the Buah and Ara formations across Oman is presented. Isotopic results indicate delta 13-C varies with relative eustatic change and delta 34-S CAS may vary in absolute magnitude across Oman.

Chapter 6 investigates the secular rise in delta 18-Omin in the early Paleozoic by using clumped isotope geochemistry on calcitic and phosphatic fossils from the Cambrian and Ordovician. Results do not indicate extreme delta 18-O seawater depletion and instead suggest warmer equatorial temperatures across the early Paleozoic.

Iridium and rhodium analogues of the Shilov cycle catalyst; and the investigation and applications of the Reduction-Coupled Oxo Activation (ROA) mechanistic motif towards alkane upgrading

This dissertation will cover several disparate topics, with the overarching theme centering on the investigation of organometallic C-H activation and hydrocarbon transformation and upgrading. Chapters 2 and 3 discuss iridium and rhodium analogues of the Shilov cycle catalyst for methane to methanol oxidation, and Chapter 4 on the recently discovered ROA mechanistic motif in catalysts for various alkane partial oxidation reactions. In addition, Chapter 5 discusses the mechanism of nickel pyridine bisoxazoline Negishi catalysts for asymmetric and stereoconvergent C-C coupling, and the appendices discuss smaller projects on rhodium H/D exchange catalysts and DFT method benchmarking.

Engineered underdominance as a method of insect population replacement and reproductive isolation

Insect vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever (both spread by mosquito vectors), continue to significantly impact health worldwide, despite the efforts put forth to eradicate them. Suppression strategies utilizing genetically modified disease-refractory insects have surfaced as an attractive means of disease control, and progress has been made on engineering disease-resistant insect vectors. However, laboratory-engineered disease refractory genes would probably not spread in the wild, and would most likely need to be linked to a gene drive system in order to proliferate in native insect populations. Underdominant systems like translocations and engineered underdominance have been proposed as potential mechanisms for spreading disease refractory genes. Not only do these threshold-dependent systems have certain advantages over other potential gene drive mechanisms, such as localization of gene drive and removability, extreme engineered underdominance can also be used to bring about reproductive isolation, which may be of interest in controlling the spread of GMO crops. Proof-of-principle establishment of such drive mechanisms in a well-understood and studied insect, such as Drosophila melanogaster, is essential before more applied systems can be developed for the less characterized vector species of interest, such as mosquitoes. This work details the development of several distinct types of engineered underdominance and of translocations in Drosophila, including ones capable of bringing about reproductive isolation and population replacement, as a proof of concept study that can inform efforts to construct such systems in insect disease vectors.

Part I. Synchronization of the cell division cycle of HeLa cells in suspension cultures. Part II. Studies on chromosomal proteins of HeLa cells during the cell division cycle

Part I

These studies investigate the potential of single and double treatments with either 5-fluorodeoxyuridine of excess thymidine to induce cell division synchrony in suspension cultures of HeLa cells. The patterns of nucleic acid synthesis and cell proliferation have been analyzed in cultures thus synchronized. Several changes in cell population during long incubation with 5-fluorodeoxyuridine or excess thymidine are also described. These results are subjected to detailed evaluation in terms of the degree and quality of synchrony finally achieved.

Part II

Histones and non-histone proteins associated with interphase and metaphase chromosomes of HeLa cells have been qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. Histones were fractionated by chromatography on Amberlite CG-50 and further characterized by analytical disc electrophoresis and amino acid analysis of each chromatographic fraction. It is concluded that histones of HeLa cells are comprised of only a small number of major components and that these components are homologous to those of other higher organisms. Of all the histones, arginine-rich histone III alone contains cysteine and can polymerize through formation of intermolecular disulfide bridges between histone III monomers.

A detailed comparison by chromatography and disc electrophoresis established that interphase and metaphase histones are made up of similar components. However, certain quantitative differences in proportions of different histones of interphase and metaphase cells are reported. Indirect evidence indicates that a certain proportion of metaphase histone III is polymerized through intermolecular disulfide links, whereas interphase histone III occurs mainly in the monomeric form.

Metaphase chromosomes are associated with an additional acid-soluble protein fraction which is absent from interphase chromosomes. All of these additional acid-soluble proteins of metaphase chromosomes are shown to be non-histones and it is concluded that the histone/DNA ratio is identical in interphase and metaphase chromosomes. The bulk of acid-soluble non-histone proteins of metaphase chromosomes were found to be polymerized through disulfide bridges; corresponding interphase non-histone proteins displayed no evidence of similar polymerization.

The factors responsible for the condensed configuration and metabolic inactivity of metaphase chromosomes are discussed in light of these findings.

The relationship between histone and DNA synthesis in nondividing differentiated chicken erythrocyte cells and in rapidly dividing undifferentiated HeLa cells is also investigated. Of all the histones, only arginine-rich histones are synthesized in mature erythrocytes. Histone synthesis in HeLa cells was studied in both unsynchronized and synchronized cultures. In HeLa cells, only part of the synthesis of all histone fractions is dependent on concurrent DNA synthesis, whereas all histones are synthesized in varying degrees even in the absence of DNA synthesis.

Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.