Testing Weak-Form Efficiency of the Chinese Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tarkastella Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta ja random walk -hypoteesin voimassaoloa. Tavoitteena on myös selvittää esiintyykö viikonpäiväanomalia Kiinan osakemarkkinoilla. Tutkimusaineistona käytetään Shanghain osakepörssin A-sarjan,B-sarjan ja yhdistelmä-sarjan ja Shenzhenin yhdistelmä-sarjan indeksien päivittäisiä logaritmisoituja tuottoja ajalta 21.2.1992-30.12.2005 sekä Shenzhenin osakepörssin A-sarjan ja B-sarjan indeksien päivittäisiä logaritmisoituja tuottoja ajalta 5.10.1992-30.12.2005. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytetään neljä tilastollista menetelmää, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotestiä, epäparametrista runs-testiä, varianssisuhdetestiä sekä Augmented Dickey-Fullerin yksikköjuuritestiä. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Testejä tehdään sekä koko aineistolla että kolmella erillisellä ajanjaksolla. Tämän tutkielman empiiriset tulokset tukevat aikaisempia tutkimuksia Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehottomuudesta. Lukuun ottamatta yksikköjuuritestien saatuja tuloksia, autokorrelaatio-, runs- ja varianssisuhdetestien perusteella random walk-hypoteesi hylättiin molempien Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden kohdalla. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että molemmilla osakepörssillä B-sarjan indeksien käyttäytyminenon ollut huomattavasti enemmän random walk -hypoteesin vastainen kuin A-sarjan indeksit. Paitsi B-sarjan markkinat, molempien Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuus näytti myös paranevan vuoden 2001 markkinabuumin jälkeen. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat myös viikonpäiväanomalian esiintyvän Shanghain osakepörssillä, muttei kuitenkaan Shenzhenin osakepörssillä koko tarkasteluajanjaksolla.

Observations on Software Testing Practice

This thesis investigates factors that affect software testing practice. The thesis consists of empirical studies, in which the affecting factors were analyzed and interpreted using quantitative and qualitative methods. First, the Delphi method was used to specify the scope of the thesis. Secondly, for the quantitative analysis 40industry experts from 30 organizational units (OUs) were interviewed. The survey method was used to explore factors that affect software testing practice. Conclusions were derived using correlation and regression analysis. Thirdly, from these 30 OUs, five were further selected for an in-depth case study. The data was collected through 41 semi-structured interviews. The affecting factors and their relationships were interpreted with qualitative analysis using grounded theory as the research method. The practice of software testing was analyzed from the process improvement and knowledge management viewpoints. The qualitative and quantitativeresults were triangulated to increase the validity of the thesis. Results suggested that testing ought to be adjusted according to the business orientation of the OU; the business orientation affects the testing organization and knowledge management strategy, and the business orientation andthe knowledge management strategy affect outsourcing. As a special case, the complex relationship between testing schedules and knowledge transfer is discussed. The results of this thesis can be used in improvingtesting processes and knowledge management in software testing.

Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model

Background: The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. Methodology/Findings: We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in order to make the most suitable decisions.

Selecting, testing and modifying a model for identifying potential key customers

Tämä työ tehtiin globaaliin elektroniikka-alan yritykseen. Diplomityö liittyy haasteeseen, jonka lisääntynyt globalisaatio ja kiristyvä kilpailu ovat luoneet: case yrityksen on selvitettävä kuinka se voi saavuttaa kasvutavoitteet myös tulevaisuudessa hankkimalla uusia asiakkaita ja olemalla yhä enenevissä määrin maailmanlaajuisesti läsnä. Tutkimuksen tavoite oli löytää sopiva malli potentiaalisten avainasiakkaiden identifiointiin ja valintaan, sekä testata ja modifioida valittua mallia case yrityksen tarpeiden mukaisesti. Erityisesti raakadatan kerääminen, asiakkaiden houkuttelevuuskriteerit ja kohdemarkkinarako olivat asioita, jotka tarvitsivat tutkimuksessa huomiota. Kirjallisuuskatsauksessa keskityttiin yritysmarkkinoihin, eri asiakassuhteenhallinnan lähestymistapoihin ja avainasiakkaiden määrittämiseen. CRM:n, KAM:n ja Customer Insight-ajattelun perusteet esiteltiin yhdessä eri avainasiakkaiden identifiointimallien kanssa. Valittua Chevertonin mallia testattiin ja muokattiin työn empiirisessä osassa. Tutkimuksen empiirinen kontribuutio on modifioitu malli potentiaalisten avainasiakkaiden identifiointiin. Se auttaa päätöksentekijöitä etenemään systemaattisesti ja organisoidusti askel askeleelta kohti potentiaalisten asiakkaiden listaa tietyltä markkina-alueelta. Työ tarjoaa työkalun tähän prosessiin sekä luo pohjaa tulevaisuuden tutkimukselle ja toimenpiteille.

Time-varying Risk Premiums and Conditional Market Risk: Empirical Evidence from European Stock Markets

This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.

Determining risk potential through accidents and near-accidents: an empirical study in a steel factory

Fatal and permanently disabling accidents form only one per I cent of all occupational accidents but in many branches of industry they account for more than half the accident costs. Furthermore the human suffering of the victim and his family is greater in severe accidents than in slight ones. For both human and economic reasons the severe accident risks should be identified befor injuries occur. It is for this purpose that different safety analysis methods have been developed . This study shows two new possible approaches to the problem.. The first is the hypothesis that it is possible to estimate the potential severity of accidents independent of the actual severity. The second is the hypothesis that when workers are also asked to report near accidents, they are particularly prone to report potentially severe near accidents on the basis of their own subjective risk assessment. A field study was carried out in a steel factory. The results supported both the hypotheses. The reliability and the validity of post incident estimates of an accident's potential severity were reasonable. About 10 % of accidents were estimated to be potentially critical; they could have led to death or very severe permanent disability. Reported near accidents were significantly more severe, about 60 $ of them were estimated to be critical. Furthermore the validity of workers subjective risk assessment, manifested in the near accident reports, proved to be reasonable. The studied new methods require further development and testing. They could be used both in routine usage in work places and in research for identifying and setting the priorities of accident risks.

Intended Quality: Relationships between Development, Testing and Quality

An empirical study was conducted in the area of software engineering to study relationships between development, testing and intended software quality. International standards served as a starting point of the study. For analysis a round of interviews was kept and transcribed. It was found that interaction between humans is critical, especially in transferring knowledge and standards’ processes. The standards are communicated through interaction and learning processes are involved before compliance. One of the results was that testing is the key to sufficient quality. The outcome was that successful interaction, sufficient testing and compliance with the standards combined with good motivation may provide most repeatable intended quality.

Model-based testing of software systems : functionality and performance

Software is a key component in many of our devices and products that we use every day. Most customers demand not only that their devices should function as expected but also that the software should be of high quality, reliable, fault tolerant, efficient, etc. In short, it is not enough that a calculator gives the correct result of a calculation, we want the result instantly, in the right form, with minimal use of battery, etc. One of the key aspects for succeeding in today's industry is delivering high quality. In most software development projects, high-quality software is achieved by rigorous testing and good quality assurance practices. However, today, customers are asking for these high quality software products at an ever-increasing pace. This leaves the companies with less time for development. Software testing is an expensive activity, because it requires much manual work. Testing, debugging, and verification are estimated to consume 50 to 75 per cent of the total development cost of complex software projects. Further, the most expensive software defects are those which have to be fixed after the product is released. One of the main challenges in software development is reducing the associated cost and time of software testing without sacrificing the quality of the developed software. It is often not enough to only demonstrate that a piece of software is functioning correctly. Usually, many other aspects of the software, such as performance, security, scalability, usability, etc., need also to be verified. Testing these aspects of the software is traditionally referred to as nonfunctional testing. One of the major challenges with non-functional testing is that it is usually carried out at the end of the software development process when most of the functionality is implemented. This is due to the fact that non-functional aspects, such as performance or security, apply to the software as a whole. In this thesis, we study the use of model-based testing. We present approaches to automatically generate tests from behavioral models for solving some of these challenges. We show that model-based testing is not only applicable to functional testing but also to non-functional testing. In its simplest form, performance testing is performed by executing multiple test sequences at once while observing the software in terms of responsiveness and stability, rather than the output. The main contribution of the thesis is a coherent model-based testing approach for testing functional and performance related issues in software systems. We show how we go from system models, expressed in the Unified Modeling Language, to test cases and back to models again. The system requirements are traced throughout the entire testing process. Requirements traceability facilitates finding faults in the design and implementation of the software. In the research field of model-based testing, many new proposed approaches suffer from poor or the lack of tool support. Therefore, the second contribution of this thesis is proper tool support for the proposed approach that is integrated with leading industry tools. We o er independent tools, tools that are integrated with other industry leading tools, and complete tool-chains when necessary. Many model-based testing approaches proposed by the research community suffer from poor empirical validation in an industrial context. In order to demonstrate the applicability of our proposed approach, we apply our research to several systems, including industrial ones.

Empirical studies on software quality construction: Exploring human factors and organizational influences

Software quality has become an important research subject, not only in the Information and Communication Technology spheres, but also in other industries at large where software is applied. Software quality is not a happenstance; it is defined, planned and created into the software product throughout the Software Development Life Cycle. The research objective of this study is to investigate the roles of human and organizational factors that influence software quality construction. The study employs the Straussian grounded theory. The empirical data has been collected from 13 software companies, and the data includes 40 interviews. The results of the study suggest that tools, infrastructure and other resources have a positive impact on software quality, but human factors involved in the software development processes will determine the quality of the products developed. On the other hand, methods of development were found to bring little effect on software quality. The research suggests that software quality is an information-intensive process whereby organizational structures, mode of operation, and information flow within the company variably affect software quality. The results also suggest that software development managers influence the productivity of developers and the quality of the software products. Several challenges of software testing that affect software quality are also brought to light. The findings of this research are expected to benefit the academic community and software practitioners by providing an insight into the issues pertaining to software quality construction undertakings.

Ethic of Care versus Ethic of Justice? The Gender- Corruption Nexus: Testing the New Conventional Wisdom

Ce papier utilise des données empiriques sur le Ghana afin d’examiner comment, le genre, en tant que système social, génère des dilemmes moraux dans le secteur public. Les hommes et les femmes se sentent obligées de choisir des conditions privées de moralité dans le secteur de l’éthique publique. Ce papier démontre que les références qui délimitent les personnalités comportementales sexuées et qui sont utilisées pour justifier le plus haut degré de standard éthique des femmes peut aussi être potentiellement source de corruption, si les femmes essaient de respecter les attentes en matière de genre dans la conduite des obligations publiques. Fondamentalement, le papier argumente que l’éthique sexuée- supposant la division entre éthique de la compassion et éthique de la justice- pourrait perpétuer des comportements qui nient l’éthique du secteur public, mais se conforme à l’éthique sociale. En utilisant les travaux de Carol Gilligan (1982) sur la théorie du développement moral, il conclut, inter alia, que le recrutement des femmes dans le secteur public devrait être promu en tant que droit plutôt qu’à partir de leur probité morale présumée supérieure. Promouvoir les femmes dans le services publics sur la base de leur éthique supérieure pourrait s’avérer contre-productif si les espoirs étaient déçus.

Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing: Review of Ethical, Legal and Social Implications

Article

From evolution to co-evolution – An empirical study of the role of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics

In the past decades since Schumpeter’s influential writings economists have pursued research to examine the role of innovation in certain industries on firm as well as on industry level. Researchers describe innovations as the main trigger of industry dynamics, while policy makers argue that research and education are directly linked to economic growth and welfare. Thus, research and education are an important objective of public policy. Firms and public research are regarded as the main actors which are relevant for the creation of new knowledge. This knowledge is finally brought to the market through innovations. What is more, policy makers support innovations. Both actors, i.e. policy makers and researchers, agree that innovation plays a central role but researchers still neglect the role that public policy plays in the field of industrial dynamics. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to learn more about the interdependencies of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics. The overarching research question of this dissertation asks whether it is possible to analyze patterns of industry evolution – from evolution to co-evolution – based on empirical studies of the role of innovation, policy and public research in industrial dynamics. This work starts with a hypothesis-based investigation of traditional approaches of industrial dynamics. Namely, the testing of a basic assumption of the core models of industrial dynamics and the analysis of the evolutionary patterns – though with an industry which is driven by public policy as example. Subsequently it moves to a more explorative approach, investigating co-evolutionary processes. The underlying questions of the research include the following: Do large firms have an advantage because of their size which is attributable to cost spreading? Do firms that plan to grow have more innovations? What role does public policy play for the evolutionary patterns of an industry? Are the same evolutionary patterns observable as those described in the ILC theories? And is it possible to observe regional co-evolutionary processes of science, innovation and industry evolution? Based on two different empirical contexts – namely the laser and the photovoltaic industry – this dissertation tries to answer these questions and combines an evolutionary approach with a co-evolutionary approach. The first chapter starts with an introduction of the topic and the fields this dissertation is based on. The second chapter provides a new test of the Cohen and Klepper (1996) model of cost spreading, which explains the relationship between innovation, firm size and R&D, at the example of the photovoltaic industry in Germany. First, it is analyzed whether the cost spreading mechanism serves as an explanation for size advantages in this industry. This is related to the assumption that the incentives to invest in R&D increase with the ex-ante output. Furthermore, it is investigated whether firms that plan to grow will have more innovative activities. The results indicate that cost spreading serves as an explanation for size advantages in this industry and, furthermore, growth plans lead to higher amount of innovative activities. What is more, the role public policy plays for industry evolution is not finally analyzed in the field of industrial dynamics. In the case of Germany, the introduction of demand inducing policy instruments stimulated market and industry growth. While this policy immediately accelerated market volume, the effect on industry evolution is more ambiguous. Thus, chapter three analyzes this relationship by considering a model of industry evolution, where demand-inducing policies will be discussed as a possible trigger of development. The findings suggest that these instruments can take the same effect as a technical advance to foster the growth of an industry and its shakeout. The fourth chapter explores the regional co-evolution of firm population size, private-sector patenting and public research in the empirical context of German laser research and manufacturing over more than 40 years from the emergence of the industry to the mid-2000s. The qualitative as well as quantitative evidence is suggestive of a co-evolutionary process of mutual interdependence rather than a unidirectional effect of public research on private-sector activities. Chapter five concludes with a summary, the contribution of this work as well as the implications and an outlook of further possible research.

Testing for Hidden Information and Action in Automobile Insurance Market

I test the presence of hidden information and action in the automobile insurance market using a data set from several Colombian insurers. To identify the presence of hidden information I find a common knowledge variable providing information on policyholder s risk type which is related to both experienced risk and insurance demand and that was excluded from the pricing mechanism. Such unused variable is the record of policyholder s traffic offenses. I find evidence of adverse selection in six of the nine insurance companies for which the test is performed. From the point of view of hidden action I develop a dynamic model of effort in accident prevention given an insurance contract with bonus experience rating scheme and I show that individual accident probability decreases with previous accidents. This result brings a testable implication for the empirical identification of hidden action and based on that result I estimate an econometric model of the time spans between the purchase of the insurance and the first claim, between the first claim and the second one, and so on. I find strong evidence on the existence of unobserved heterogeneity that deceives the testable implication. Once the unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, I find conclusive statistical grounds supporting the presence of moral hazard in the Colombian insurance market.

Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions

This paper analyzes the measure of systemic importance ∆CoV aR proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009, 2010) within the context of a similar class of risk measures used in the risk management literature. In addition, we develop a series of testing procedures, based on ∆CoV aR, to identify and rank the systemically important institutions. We stress the importance of statistical testing in interpreting the measure of systemic importance. An empirical application illustrates the testing procedures, using equity data for three European banks.

Testing for Stock Market Integration in a Developing Economy: Colombia

This paper examines the linkage between two parallel stock exchanges trading the same shares in Colombia, namely the Bogotá Stock Exchange and the Medellín Stock Exchange. We provide empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that these two markets can be best described as fully integrated over a period of almost four decades, which is consistent with the view that arbitrage opportunities are only possible in the short but not in the long run. In addition, we find evide