Tanulságok a gazdasági és monetáris unió számára a 2008-as világgazdasági válság kapcsán (Lessons for the Economic and Monetary Union from the 2008 global economic crisis)

Írásunkban a 2008-ban kitört világgazdasági válságnak a Gazdasági és Monetáris Unióra gyakorolt hatásait elemezzük. Tanulmányunkban rávilágítunk a Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió két olyan problémájára, amelyek a válság után váltak igazán nyilvánvalóvá. Egyrészt a görög államcsődveszély, illetve egyes, korábban jól teljesítő országok botladozása jelzi, hogy a Monetáris Unió intézményrendszere legalábbis hiányos. A másik kérdés összefügg az előzővel, és azon országok szemszögéből érdekes, amelyek csatlakozni kívánnak a GMU-hoz: felerősödtek azok a vélemények, amelyek a csatlakozás elhalasztása mellett foglalnak állást. Tanulmányunk második részében ezt a kérdést járjuk körbe. / === / In our paper we are analyze the effects of the economic crisis of 2008 on the Economic and Monetary Union. We are focusing on two core problems of the EMU which came to surface only after the outbreak of the crisis. First, we address the fiscal problems of Greece and other member states which performed well before the crisis. These problems show that there are major institutional shortcomings in the Monetary Union. The second question is connected to the first one and concerns the new member states of the European Union and their strategies to join the Euro zone. After the crisis more and more voices in the new member states suggest postponing EMU membership.

A vállalati informatika szerepe a versenyképesség alakításában a pénzügyi és gazdasági válság időszakában (Corporate IT in shaping the competitiveness of the Hungarian enterprises in the financial and economic crisis)

A cikk az informatika és a versenyképesség kapcsolatát vizsgálja. A Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem Versenyképesség Kutatási Programjának korábbi felmérései óta számos új technológia bukkant fel, illetve hazánkat is elérte a világméretű pénzügyi és gazdasági válság hatása. E kihívások tükrében érdemesnek tűnt újra megvizsgálni az információtechnológia (IT) szerepét a versenyképesség alakításában. / === / In this paper the relationship between information technology (IT) and competitiveness is tackled. Since the authors’ previous surveys within their Competitiveness Research Program several new technologies have emerged, and the influence of the word wide financial and economic crisis has reached Hungary as well. In the face of these challenges it is worth reexamining the role of IT in shaping the competitive position of companies. The structure of the paper is as follows. A brief theoretical introduction is provided before their research questionsare presented. After that, the paper contains an analysis on selected fields of the corporate IT function, namely IT infrastructure, IT applications, IT management and IT strategy. Based on this, conclusions are made both at the end of the main parts, and in the final section of the paper. As far as the final conclusions are concerned, the majority of respondents do not regard IT today as a source of sustainable or contestable competitive advantage, though the dominant opinion underlines that IT is a strategic necessity. Besides this, their research results suggest a kind of association between corporate performance and the maturity level of the IT function. However, even the best performing companies are not prepared yet to effectively respond to their own prediction that forecasts the strengthening role of IT as a competitive factor.

What lessons can we learn from the present economic crisis for the possible future strategies of enterprises - lesson from Hungary and Slovakia

The paper explores the characteristics of the present economic crisis at enterprise level and its comsequences for possible growth after the crisis. The study builds on international experiences concerning recovery from crisis during the previous economic downturns between 1980 and 2002. Survey results in Hungary and Slovakia are presented with special attention to how companies tried to react to the present economic recession. The study analyses the possible consequences of the strategies followed by the Slovakian and Hungarian firms during the crisis period from the point of view of capabilities for utilizing the options for growth when demand will start to increase.

A gazdasági válság hatása a vállalati stratégiákra – Magyar és szlovák tapasztalatok (Influence of the economic crisis on corporate strategy – Experiences in Hungary and Slovakia)

A tanulmány a jelenlegi gazdasági válság jellemzőit a vállalatok szintjén elemzi, továbbá vizsgálja annak következményeit a válság utáni lehetséges növekedésre. A tanulmány támaszkodik a nemzetközi szakirodalomban tárgyalt tapasztalatokra a válságokból való kilábalás példái alapján, amelyek a korábbi – 1980 és 2002 közötti – válságok során jelentkeztek. Magyarországi és szlovákiai empirikus vizsgálati tapasztalatok ismertetésére kerül sor arra vonatkozóan, hogy miként reagáltak a vállalatok a jelenlegi gazdasági recesszióra. A tanulmány elemzi a magyar és a szlovák vállalatok által a válság alatt követett stratégiák hatását a kereslet megélénkülése esetén adódó növekedési lehetőségek kihasználása szempontjából. A tanulmány illusztrációként bemutatja egy innovatív szlovákiai internetszolgáltató vállalat példáját. _______ The paper analyses the characteristics of the economic crisis at the level of companies, and the consequences for possibilities of growth after the crisis. The authors build on the experiences discussed in international literature concerning recovery after the previous crises between 1980 and 2002. The paper summarizes the empirical research findings on enterprise level reactions to the present economic recession. The focus of analysis is connected to the question of inluence of strategies on capabilities for realizing the growth options after the crisis. The paper – as an illustrative example – describes the strategic behaviour of an innovativ internet service company in Slovakia.

Effects of the current financial and economic crisis on the rural landscape as well as the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia

This paper reviews the expected effects of the current financial crisis and subsequent recession on the rural landscape, in particular the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) on the basis of the structure of the rural economy and of different organisations and institutions. Empirical evidence suggests that the crisis has hit the ECA region the hardest. Agriculture contributes about 9% to gross domestic product (GDP) for the ECA region as a whole with 16% of the population being employed in the agricultural sector. As far as the impact of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector is concerned, there are a few interconnected issues: (1) reduction in income elastic food demand and commodity price decline, (2) loss of employment and earnings of rural people working in urban centres, implying also costly labour reallocation, (3) rising rural poverty originating mainly from lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector and a sizable decline of international remittances, (4) tightening of agricultural credit markets, and the (5) collapse of sectoral government support programs and social safety-net measures in many countries. The paper reveals how the crisis hit farming and broader agri-business differently in general and in the ECA sub-regions.

Obama és az új világrend a gazdasági válság tükrében (Obama and the new world order in light of the economic crisis)

Napjainkban a nemzetközi kapcsolatok meghatározó jelensége a gazdasági világválság, amelynek kezelése kapcsán egyre gyakrabban merül fel a politikusok és az elemzők szóhasználatában az „új világrend” fogalma. ____ In treating the current global economic crisis, politicians and analysts increasingly refer to a "new world order". The paper examines this concept, its different meanings and historical evolution, as well as the role it plays in the rhetoric of the Obamaadministration.

Winning Media Strategies in the Time of the Economic Crisis

At the time of the economic crisis cutting marketing and media expenses is a common corporate reaction. While this reaction is rather obvious, this may not be the winning option. To find out more about successful media strategies authors conducted a broad, multiple method research, including interviews with industry experts (N=6, leading decision makers), scrutiny of consumer narratives (N=100), content analysis of forum and blog entries (N=7086 comments) and focus group interviews (N=4). Research findings point to realignment in media spending namely better-targeted communications programs and more fragmented media choice, and besides, show the increasing role of audience participation, too. Authors argue that careful managerial efforts for harmonizing consumer problems and advertising content may result in finding the path from problem level to desired level in marketing communication practices even in crisis periods.

Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on Regional Tourism Industry and Economy

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on a Regional Tourism Industry and Economy

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: A national European pool

An abundance of comparative survey research argues the presence of economic voting as an individual force in European elections, thereby refuting a possible ecological fallacy. But the hypothesis of economic voting at the aggregate level, with macroeconomics influencing overall electoral outcomes, seems less sure. Indeed, there might be a micrological fallacy at work, with the supposed individual economic vote effect not adding up to a national electoral effect after all. Certainly that would account for the spotty evidence linking macroeconomics and national election outcomes. We examine the possibility of a micrological fallacy through rigorous analysis of a large time-series cross-sectional dataset of European nations. From these results, it becomes clear that the macroeconomy strongly moves national election outcomes, with hard times punishing governing parties, and good times rewarding them. Further, this economy-election connection appears asymmetric, altering under economic crisis. Indeed, we show that economic crisis, defined as negative growth, has much greater electoral effects than positive economic growth. Hard times clearly make governments more accountable to their electorates.

The economic voter and economic crisis

Theories of economic voting have a long tradition in political science and continue to inspire a large group of scholars. Classical economic voting theory assumes a reward-and-punishment mechanism (Key, 1966). This mechanism implies that incumbents are more likely to stay in power under a good economy, but are cast out under a bad economy (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier, 2000). The economy has repeatedly been shown to be a major determinant of electoral behavior (see especially the recent book by Duch and Stevenson, 2008), but the current economic crisis seems to provide a marked illustration of how the economy affects voting. In recent elections across the Western industrialized world, most ruling coalitions lost their majority. Opposition parties, on the other hand, whether right wing or left wing, have appeared to benefit from the economic downturn.

Ireland and the global economic crisis: one island, two different experiences

In this chapter, Ó hAdhmaill argues that responses to the global economic crisis which emerged in 2008 reflected a dominant ideological discourse, with ‘austerity’ being a tool in a wider agenda to reassert neoliberalist thinking in the global economy and welfare provision in the richer countries. In Ireland, North and South, however, the experience of, and responses to, the crisis and ‘austerity’ were different, reflecting different social, economic, and political contexts and influences, as well as different levels of democratic control. Ó hAdhmaill outlines some of these differences and argues that, while democratic control in smaller jurisdictions may be limited by the ‘real rulers’ of the world, global capital, people still have ‘agency’ and do not have to be mere passive observers of unfolding events.

Economic crisis and national health system

The text analyzes the impact of the economic crisis in some critical aspects of the National Health System: outcomes, health expenditure, remuneration policy and privatization through Private Public Partnership models. Some health outcomes related to social inequalities are worrying. Reducing public health spending has increased the fragility of the health system, reduced wage income of workers in the sector and increased heterogeneity between regions. Finally, the evidence indicates that privatization does not mean more efficiency and better governance. Deep reforms are needed to strengthen the National Health System.

The impact of political and economic crisis on the polarization of the Spanish media

In this paper the characteristics of the cyclical political polarization of the Spanish media system are defined. From this study, a prospective analysis raises doubts about this scenario remains unchanged because of the political and economic crisis. It seeks to define the role played by political and media actors in polarization focusing on the two legislatures where the tension reached higher levels (1993-1996 and 2004-2008) and compares it with the developments faced by them in the current economical and political context of crisis. To achieve these aims, it has been performed an analysis of media content (since 1993) and looked through primary sociological sources and the scientific literature about polarization. This is an exploratory, critical and descriptive case analysis.

The elderly care and domestic services sector during the recent economic crisis. The case of Italy, Spain and France.

Over the past ten years in Italy, Spain and France, the demographic pressure and the increasing women’s participation in labour market have fuelled the expansion of the private provision of domestic and care services. In order to ensure the difficult balance between affordability, quality and job creation, each countries’ response has been different. France has developed policies to sustain the demand side introducing instruments such as vouchers and fiscal schemes, since the mid of the 2000s. Massive public funding has contributed to foster a regular market of domestic and care services and France is often presented as a “best practices” of those policies aimed at encouraging a regular private sector. Conversely in Italy and Spain, the development of a private domestic and care market has been mostly uncontrolled and without a coherent institutional design: the osmosis between a large informal market and the regular private care sector has been ensured on the supply side by migrant workers’ regularizations or the introduction of new employment regulations . The analysis presented in this paper aims to describe the response of these different policies to the challenges imposed by the current economic crisis. In dealing with the retrenchment of public expenditure and the reduced households’ purchasing power, Italy, Spain and France are experiencing greater difficulties in ensuring a regular private sector of domestic and care services. In light of that, the paper analyses the recent economic conjuncture presenting some assumptions about the future risk of deeper inequalities rising along with the increase of the process of marketization of domestic and care services in all the countries under analysis.