Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Exhaled nitric oxide as a predictor of exacerbation in children with moderate-to-severe asthma: a prospective, 5-month study

Background: Inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) are recommended as the first line of treatment in children with moderate-to-severe asthma. Exhaled nitric oxide (ENO) has been proposed as a clinically useful marker of control that might help identify patients in whom ICS dose may be safely reduced. Objective: To evaluate the ability of ENO to predict future asthma exacerbations in children with moderate-to-severe asthma undergoing ICS tapering. Methods: This is an observational study with no control group. ENO was measured biweekly for 14 weeks in 32 children with moderate-to-severe asthma who were undergoing ICS tapering. Clinical evaluations and spirometry were performed concomitantly, and families kept daily diaries to record symptoms between visits. We used generalized estimating equations to model the In (odds) of an asthma exacerbation in the subsequent 2-week interval as a function of ENO level at the start of the interval while adjusting for age, sex, asthma severity, and current medication use. Results: We were able to successfully lower ICS doses in 10 (56%) of the 18 children with moderate asthma and in 3 (21%) of the 14 children with severe asthma. In 83 of the 187 follow-up clinical evaluations, children were determined to have had an exacerbation during the preceding 2 weeks. ENO levels, whether expressed as a continuous variable or dichotomized, were not associated with future risk for exacerbations in either unadjusted or adjusted models. Conclusion: ENO was not a useful clinical predictor of future asthma exacerbations for children with moderate-to-severe asthma undergoing ICS tapering. Ann Allergy Asthma Immunol. 2009; 103:206-211.

FGF-23 as a Predictor of Renal Outcome in Diabetic Nephropathy

Background and objectives Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) has emerged as a new factor in mineral metabolism in chronic kidney disease (CKD). An important regulator of phosphorus homeostasis, FGF-23 has been shown to independently predict CKD progression in nondiabetic renal disease. We analyzed the relation between FGF-23 and renal outcome in diabetic nephropathy (DN). Design, setting, participants, & measurements DN patients participating in a clinical trial (enalapril+placebo versus enalapril+losartan) had baseline data collected and were followed until June 2009 or until the primary outcome was reached. Four patients were lost to follow-up. The composite primary outcome was defined as death, doubling of serum creatinine, and/or dialysis need. Results At baseline, serum FGF-23 showed a significant association with serum creatinine, intact parathyroid hormone, proteirturia, urinary fractional excretion of phosphate, male sex, and race. Interestingly, FGF-23 was not related to calcium, phosphorus, 25OH-vitamin D, or 24-hour urinary phosphorus. Mean follow-up time was 30.7 +/- 10 months. Cox regression showed that FGF-23 was an independent predictor of the primary outcome, even after adjustment for creatinine clearance and intact parathyroid hormone (10 pg/ml FGF-23 increase = hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.16, P = 0.02). Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significantly higher risk of the primary outcome in patients with FGF-23 values of >70 pg/ml. Conclusions FGF-23 is a significant independent predictor of renal outcome in patients with macroalbuminuric DN. Further studies should clarify whether this relation is causal and whether FGF-23 should be a new therapeutic target for CKD prevention. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 241-247, 2011. doi: 10.2215/CJN.04250510

Depression: a predictor of smoking relapse in a 6-month follow-up after hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome

Objective The objective of the study was to investigate whether depression is a predictor of postdischarge smoking relapse among patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction (MI) or unstable angina (ILIA), in a smoke-free hospital. Methods Current smokers with MI or UA were interviewed while hospitalized; patients classified with major depression (MD) or no humor disorder were reinterviewed 6 months post discharge to ascertain smoking status. Potential predictors of relapse (depression; stress; anxiety; heart disease risk perception; coffee and alcohol consumption; sociodemographic, clinical, and smoking habit characteristics) were compared between those with MD (n = 268) and no humor disorder (n = 135). Results Relapsers (40.4%) were more frequently and more severely depressed, had higher anxiety and lower self-efficacy scale scores, diagnosis of UA, shorter hospitalizations, started smoking younger, made fewer attempts to quit, had a consort less often, and were more frequently at the `precontemplation` stage of change. Multivariate analysis showed relapse-positive predictors to be MD [odds ratio (OR): 2.549; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.519-4.275] (P<0.001); `precontemplation` stage of change (OR: 7.798; 95% CI: 2.442-24.898) (P<0.001); previous coronary bypass graft surgery (OR: 4.062; 95% CI: 1.356-12.169) (P=0.012); and previous anxiolytic use (OR: 2.365; 95% CI: 1.095-5.107) (P=0.028). Negative predictors were diagnosis of MI (OR: 0.575; 95% CI: 0.361-0.916) (P=0.019); duration of hospitalization (OR: 0.935; 95% CI: 0.898-0.973) (P=0.001); smoking onset age (OR: 0.952; 95% CI: 0.910-0.994) (P=0.028); number of attempts to quit smoking (OR: 0.808; 95% CI: 0.678-0.964) (P=0.018); and `action` stage of change (OR: 0.065; 95% CI: 0.008-0.532) (P= 0.010). Conclusion Depression, no motivation, shorter hospitalization, and severity of illness contributed to postdischarge resumption of smoking by patients with acute coronary syndrome, who underwent hospital-initiated smoking cessation.

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

Development of an IgG4-Based Predictor of Endemic Pemphigus Foliaceus (Fogo Selvagem)

Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.

FibroTest is an independent predictor of virologic response in chronic hepatitis C patients retreated with pegylated interferon alfa-2b and ribavirin in the EPIC(3) program

Background & Aims: EPIC-3 is a prospective, international study that has demonstrated the efficacy of PEG-IFN alfa-2b plus weight-based ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C and significant fibrosis who previously failed any interferon-alfa/ribavirin therapy. The aim of the present study was to assess FibroTest (FT), a validated non-invasive marker of fibrosis in treatment-naive patients, as a possible alternative to biopsy as the baseline predictor of subsequent early virologic (EVR) and sustained virologic response (SVR) in previously treated patients. Methods: Of 2312 patients enrolled, 1459 had an available baseline FT, biopsy, and complete data. Uni- (UV) and multi-variable (MV) analyses were performed using FT and biopsy. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar as in the overall population; METAVIR stage: 28% F2, 29% F3, and 43% F4, previous relapsers 29%, previous PEG-IFN regimen 41%, high baseline viral load (BVL) 64%. 506 patients (35%) had undetectable HCV-RNA at TW12 (TW12neg), with 58% achieving SVR. The accuracy of FT was similar to that in naive patients: AUROC curve for the diagnosis of F4 vs F2 = 0.80 (p<0.00001). Five baseline factors were associated (p<0.001) with SVR in UV and MV analyses (odds ratio: UV/MV): fibrosis stage estimated using FT (4.5/5.9) or biopsy (1.5/1.6), genotype 2/3 (4.5/5.1), BVL (1.5/1.3), prior relapse (1.6/1.6), previous treatment with non-PEG-IFN (2.6/2.0). These same factors were associated (p <= 0.001) with EVR. Among patients TW12neg, two independent factors remained highly predictive of SVR by MV analysis (p <= 0.001): genotype 2/3 (odds ratio = 2.9), fibrosis estimated with FT (4.3) or by biopsy (1.5). Conclusions: FibroTest at baseline is a possible non-invasive alternative to biopsy for the prediction of EVR at 12 weeks and SVR, in patients with previous failures and advanced fibrosis, retreated with PEG-IFN alfa-2b and ribavirin. (C) 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increased Immunoglobulin G Anti-Paracoccidioides brasiliensis Serum Antibody Avidity as a Predictor of Favorable Posttherapeutic Evolution in Paracoccidioidomycosis

Paracoccidioidomycosis is endemic in Latin America, and ca. 80% of all cases occur in Brazil. Little is known about antibody avidity or the evolution of such avidity in the posttherapeutic period for the different clinical presentations of the disease. In the present study, we evaluated 53 patients with paracoccidioidomycosis and calculated the avidity index. Medium-and high-avidity antibodies were found in 79.5% of patients with chronic presentation (n = 39). Among patients with the acute form (n = 14), 57.1% of the antibodies presented low avidity. In the posttherapeutic period, there was a significant increase in antibody avidity in patients presenting with the chronic multifocal form. In our preliminary study, which needs to be confirmed using a larger number of samples, the optimized method for studying antibody avidity detected differences among the clinical presentations of the mycosis and indicated the value of the avidity index as a marker of posttherapeutic evolution of patients with a multifocal chronic form of the disease.

Bowel dilation as a predictor of adverse outcome in isolated fetal gastroschisis

Objectives This study was designed to evaluate bowel diameter as a predictor of adverse outcome in isolated fetal gastroschisis Methods Retrospective study involving 94 singleton pregnancies Ultrasound measurements of herniated bowel transverse diameter (BTD) were performed up to 3 weeks before delivery Adverse outcome was intrauterine/neonatal death and/or bowel complications Results Last BTD was recorded at 35 6 +/- 1 6 weeks and mean interval to delivery was 6 2 +/- 5 0 days Intrauterine/neonatal death occurred in 10 (10 6%) cases, bowel complications were observed in 8 (8 5%) BTD >= 15, >= 20, >= 25, and >= 30 mm were found in 87, 46, 13, and 4% of pregnancies with a favorable outcome. respectively BTD >= 25 mm sensitivity was 38%. and positive and negative predictive values were 38 and 87% For BTD >= 30 mm. the values were 19, 50, and 85% Observed/expected BTD ROC curve showed an area of 0 67, best cut-off value at 1 39, prediction values were similar to those for BTD >= 25 mm Bowel dilatation was also significantly associated with lower rate of primary surgical closure. longer period to full oral feeding, and prolonged hospital stay Conclusions Bowel dilatation demonstrated up to 3 weeks before delivery is a predictor of intestinal complications and is associated with lower late of primary surgical closure, longer period to achieve full oral feeding. and hospital stay Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Endometrial leukemia inhibitory factor as a predictor of pregnancy after in vitro fertilization

Objective: To determine whether there is an association between endometrial expression of leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF) in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle preceding in vitro fertilization (IVF) and treatment outcome. Methods: Biopsy specimens from the endometria of 52 women in the luteal. phase were immunostained against LIF Embryo culture and transfer were done according to standard procedures. Results: Clinical pregnancy occurred in 39% of the women following IVF, and strong endometrial immunohistochemical staining for LIF was associated with pregnancy (P=0.01). The women with a strong LIF expression had a 6.4-fold higher chance of becoming pregnant than those with weaker intensities (P=0.005). Conclusion: Endometrial expression of LIF during the luteal phase can be used as a predictor of IVF success. (C) 2008 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systemic lupus erythematosus exhibits a dynamic and continuum spectrum of effector/regulatory T cells

Objective: The identification of regulatory T cells (Treg cells) as CD4(+)CD25(high) cells may be upset by the increased frequency of activated effector T cells (Teff cells) in inflammatory diseases such as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study aimed to evaluate the frequency of T-cell subsets according to the expression of CD25 and CD127 in active (A-SLE) and inactive SLE (I-SLE). Methods: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 26 A-SLE patients (SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) = 10.17 +/- 3.7), 31 I-SLE patients (SLEDAI = 0), and 26 healthy controls (HC) were analysed by multicolour flow. cytometry. Results: CD25(high) cell frequency was increased in A-SLE (5.2 +/- 5.7%) compared to I-SLE (3.4 +/- 3.4%) and HC (1.73 +/- 0.8%) (p < 0.01). However, the percentage of FoxP3(+) cells in the CD25(high) subset was decreased in A-SLE (24.6 +/- 16.4%) compared to I-SLE (33.7 +/- 16) and HC (45 +/- 25.1%) (p < 0.01). This was partly due to the increased frequency of Teff cells (CD25(high)CD127(+)FoxP3(empty set)) in A-SLE (10.7 +/- 7.3%) compared to I-SLE (8.5 +/- 6.5) and HC (6.1 +/- 1.8%) (p = 0.02). Hence the frequency of Treg cells (CD25(+/high)CD127(low/empty set)FoxP3(+)) was equivalent in A-SLE (1.4 +/- 0.8%), I-SLE (1.37 +/- 1.0%), and HC (1.13 +/- 0.59%) (p = 0.42). A-SLE presented an increased frequency of CD25(+)CD127(+)FoxP3(+) and CD25(empty set)FoxP3(+)CD127(low/empty set) T cells, which may represent intermediate phenotypes between Treg and Teff cells. Conclusions: The present study has provided data supporting normal Treg cell frequency in A-SLE and I-SLE as well as increased frequency of Teff cells in A-SLE. This scenario reflects a Treg/Teff ratio imbalance that may favour the inflammatory phenotype of the disease. In addition, the increased frequency of T cells with putative intermediate phenotypes may be compatible with a highly dynamic immune system in SLE.

Myocardial Perfusion Imaging Is a Strong Predictor of Death in Women

OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the prognostic value and risk classification improvement using contemporary single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) to predict all-cause mortality. BACKGROUND Myocardial perfusion is a strong estimator of prognosis. Evidence published to date has not established the added prognostic value of SPECT-MPI nor defined an approach to detect improve classification of risk in women from a developing nation. METHODS A total of 2,225 women referred for SPECT-MPI were followed by a mean period of 3.7 +/- 1.4 years. SPECT-MPI results were classified as abnormal on the presence of any perfusion defect. Abnormal scans were further classified as with mild/moderate reversible, severe reversible, partial reversible, or fixed perfusion defects. Risk estimates for incident mortality were categorized as <1%/year, 1% to 2%/year, and >2%/year using Cox proportional hazard models. Risk-adjusted models incorporated clinical risk factors, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and perfusion variables. RESULTS All-cause death occurred in 139 patients. SPECT-MPI significantly risk stratified the population; patients with abnormal scans had significantly higher death rates compared with patients with normal scans, 13.1% versus 4.0%, respectively (p < 0.001). Cox analysis demonstrated that after adjusting for clinical risk factors and LVEF, SPECT-MPI improved the model discrimination (integrated discrimination index = 0.009; p = 0.02), added significant incremental prognostic information (global chi-square increased from 87.7 to 127.1; p < 0.0001), and improved risk prediction (net reclassification improvement = 0.12; p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS SPECT-MPI added significant incremental prognostic information to clinical and left ventricular functional variables while enhancing the ability to classify this Brazilian female population into low-and high-risk categories of all-cause mortality. (J Am Coll Cardiol Img 2011;4:880-8) (C) 2011 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Isoforms of hyaluronidases can be a predictor of a prostate cancer of good prognosis

Introduction: Hyaluronidases (HAases) are enzymes related to cancer progression. Isoforms of HAases have been described as products of alternative splicing responsible for differences in enzyme activity. The heterogeneity of HAase expression has been identified in tumors and could be related to the differences in their biological behavior. Methods: Thirty-seven patients subjected to radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer were divided into 2 groups for the analyses: Low (<= 6-18) and high (>= 7-19) Gleason score and tumor behavior; recurrence 15 and nonrecurrence 22, mean follow-up 52.6 months. Conclusion: A profile of HAase related to low Gleason score and non-tumor recurrence was characterized by expression of HYAL3-v1, HYAL1-v3, and HYAL3-v2. More studies should be made in order to confirm with larger series. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.