Rule Britannia!: British Stock Market Returns, 1825-1870

This article presents a new series of monthly equity returns for the British stock market for the period 1825-1870. In addition to calculating capital appreciation and dividend yields, the article also estimates the effect of survivorship bias on returns. Three notable findings emerge from this study. First, stock market returns in the 1825-1870 period are broadly similar for Britain and the United States, although the British market is less risky. Second, real returns in the 1825-1870 period are higher than in subsequent epochs of British history. Third, unlike the modern era, dividends are the most important component of returns.

Beyond Poverty: Social Justice in a Global Marketplace

The social justice paradigm, developed in philosophy by John Rawls and others, reaches limits when confronted with diverse populations, unsound governments, and global markets.Its parameters are further limited by a traditional utilitarian approach to both industrial actors and consumer behaviors. Finally, by focusing too exclusively on poverty, as manifest in insufficient incomes or resources, the paradigm overlooks the oppressive role that gender,race, and religious prejudice play in keeping the poor subordinated. The authors of this article suggest three ways in which researchers in marketing could bring their unique expertise to the question of social justice in a global economy: by reinventing the theoretical foundation laid down by thinkers such as Rawls, by documenting and evaluating emergent “feasible fixes” to achieve justice (such as the global resource dividend, cause-related marketing, Fair Trade, and philanthrocapitalism), and by exploring the parameters of the consumption basket that would be minimally required to achieve human capabilities.

Substitutes for legal protection: corporate governance and dividends in Victorian Britain

Companies in Victorian Britain operated in a laissez-faire legal environment from the perspective of outside investors, implying that such investors were not protected by the legal system. This article seeks to identify the alternative mechanisms that outside shareholders used to protect themselves by examining the dividend policy and governance of over 800 publicly traded companies at the beginning of the 1880s. We assess the importance of these mechanisms by estimating their impact on Tobin's Q. Our evidence suggests that dividends and well-structured and incentivized boards of directors may have played a role in protecting the interests of outside investors.

Myopic Rationality in a Mania

The rationality of investors during asset price bubbles has been the subject of considerable debate. An analysis of the British Railway Mania, which occurred in the 1840s, suggests that investors may have been myopic, as their expectations were only accurate in the short-term, but they remained rational, as they acted in a utility maximising manner given their expectations. Investors successfully incorporated forecasts of short-term dividend changes into their valuations, but were unable to predict longer-term changes. When short-term growth is controlled for, it appears that the railways were priced consistently with the non-railways throughout the entire episode.

Modelling the Performance of Irish Credit Unions, 2002 to 2010

This study undertakes a modeling based performance assessment of all Irish credit unions between 2002 and 2010, a particularly turbulent period in their history. The analysis explicitly addresses the current challenges faced by credit unions in that the modeling approach used rewards credit unions for reducing undesirable outputs (impaired loans and investments) as well as for increasing desirable outputs (loans, earning assets and members’ funds) and decreasing inputs (labour expenditure, capital expenditure and fund expenses). The main findings are: credit unions are subject to increasing returns to scale; technical regression occurred in the years after 2007; there is significant scope for an improvement in efficiency through expansion of desirable outputs and contraction of undesirable outputs and inputs; and that larger credit unions, that are better capitalised and pay a higher dividend to members are more efficient than their smaller, less capitalised, and lower dividend paying counterparts.

Cooperative traits of technology adoption: Website adoption in Irish credit unions

The purpose of this paper is to examine website adoption and its resultant effects on credit union performance in Ireland. Credit union specific factors influence adoption as does the socio-economic profile of the population from where the credit union draws its membership. Website adoption results in a reduction in the spread between the loan and dividend rate with this primarily driven by a fall in the loan rate. Given that the adoption of a website, albeit with limited functionality, translates into cost benefits this augurs well for the current restructuring process underway for Irish credit unions which has as one of its objectives the upgrade of credit union ICT sophistication.

The cross-section of stock returns in an early stock market

Using a new dataset which contains monthly data on 1015 stocks traded on the London Stock Exchange between 1825 and 1870, we investigate the cross section of stock returns in this early capital market. Unique features of this market allow us to evaluate the veracity of several popular explanations of asset pricing behavior. Using portfolio analysis and Fama–MacBeth regressions, we find that stock characteristics such as beta, illiquidity, dividend yield, and past-year return performance are all positively correlated with stock returns. However, market capitalization and past-three-year return performance have no significant correlation with stock returns.

Effects of a green tax reform in Portugal: a general equilibrium analysis

Do ponto de vista da política económica, existe a possibilidade de utilizar a receita dos impostos ambientais para baixar os impostos sobre o trabalho, promovendo assim o emprego. Esta oportunidade surge na literatura como forma dos países industrializados responderem a um duplo desafio: um crescente nível de poluição e um decrescente nível de emprego. Alguns países tomaram já decisões no sentido de alcançar o “duplo dividendo”: melhorias ambientais e diminuição do desemprego. Os resultados teóricos, na sua maioria cépticos em relação à verificação do segundo dividendo, são substancialmente contrariados por uma série de estudos que utilizam modelos de equilíbrio geral. Pretendese com este trabalho fazer uma simulação para a economia portuguesa de uma reforma fiscal ambiental com as características referidas e a verificação da existência do “duplo dividendo”, através de um modelo computacional de equilíbrio geral. Para além disso, é feita uma análise dos impactos do Mercado Europeu de Licenças de Emissão, ao nível sectorial e regional, em Portugal, utilizando dados microeconómicos, com o objectivo de estudar as consequências ao nível das trasacções entre sectores e efeitos distributivos entre regiões.

Taxation and Household Financial Decisions: Evidence from the Bush Tax Acts

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2013

Improving health and wellbeing independently of GDP: dividends of greener and prosoical economies

Increases in gross domestic product (GDP) beyond a threshold of basic needs do not lead to further increases in well-being. An explanation is that material consumption (MC) also results in negative health externalities. We assess how these externalities influence six factors critical for well-being: (i) healthy food; (ii) active body; (iii) healthy mind; (iv) community links; (v) contact with nature; and (vi) attachment to possessions. If environmentally sustainable consumption (ESC) were increasingly substituted for MC, thus improving well-being and stocks of natural and social capital, and sustainable behaviours involving non-material consumption (SBs-NMC) became more prevalent, then well-being would increase regardless of levels of GDP. In the UK, the individualised annual health costs of negative consumption externalities (NCEs) currently amount to £62 billion for the National Health Service, and £184 billion for the economy (for mental ill-health, dementia, obesity, physical inactivity, diabetes, loneliness and cardiovascular disease). A dividend is available if substitution by ESC and SBs-NMC could limit the prevalence of these conditions.

Three essays on economics of predictability of stock returns

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

Randomized observation periods for the compound Poisson risk model: Dividends

In the framework of the classical compound Poisson process in collective risk theory, we study a modification of the horizontal dividend barrier strategy by introducing random observation times at which dividends can be paid and ruin can be observed. This model contains both the continuous-time and the discrete-time risk model as a limit and represents a certain type of bridge between them which still enables the explicit calculation of moments of total discounted dividend payments until ruin. Numerical illustrations for several sets of parameters are given and the effect of random observation times on the performance of the dividend strategy is studied.

A note on moments of dividends

We reconsider a formula for arbitrary moments of expected discounted dividend payments in a spectrally negative L,vy risk model that was obtained in Renaud and Zhou (2007, [4]) and in Kyprianou and Palmowski (2007, [3]) and extend the result to stationary Markov processes that are skip-free upwards.

Osakeyhtiölain maksukykytesti pienissä osakeyhtiöissä - tilitoimiston rooli neuvonantajana

Osakeyhtiölakiin on vuodesta 2006 asti sisältynyt maksukykytesti (OYL 13:2), jonka tulkinnallinen epäselvyys on motivoinut useita tutkimuksia ja melko kriittistäkin kirjoittelua. Säännöksen tarkoituksena on ehkäistä osakeyhtiön velkojia uhkaava varojenjako velvoittamalla yhtiön johto huolellisuusvelvoitteensa nojalla arvioimaan varojenjaon vaikutukset yhtiön maksukyvyn säilymiseen. Oikeuskäytännön puuttuessa maksukykytestin toteuttamistapaan liittyy kuitenkin edelleenkin merkittävää epävarmuutta. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on pyrkiä selvittämään, miten osakeyhtiölain mukainen maksukykytesti pitäisi toteuttaa pienissä osakeyhtiöissä, joiden taloushallinto on kokonaan tai osittain ulkoistettu tilitoimistolle. Olennainen osa tutkimuksen tavoitetta on ottaa kantaa tilitoimiston rooliin maksukykytestin toteuttamisessa. Tutkimuksen johtopäätöksenä voidaan todeta, että yksityiskohtaisten tilinpäätöksen tunnuslukuihin perustuvien maksukykyarvioiden laatiminen maksukykytestin toteuttamiseksi on pienissä osakeyhtiöissä pääsääntöisesti tarpeetonta. Merkitystä tulisi sen sijaan antaa yhtiön johdolla olevalle hiljaiselle tiedolle, sillä yhtiön johto tuntee yrityksen tilanteen parhaiten ja kykenee siten myös arvioimaan tuleva kehitystä. Tilitoimiston rooliksi jää tällöin varmistaa, että asiakasyrityksen johto tuntee oman vastuuasemansa. Tutkimuksen perusteella tilitoimistot voisivat myös hyödyntää omaa asemaansa pienten yhtiöiden neuvonantajina nykyistä paremmin ohjeistamalla asiakasyrityksiään dokumentoimaan maksukykytestin hallituksen kokouspöytäkirjaan esimerkiksi osana hallituksen osingonjakoehdotusta.