Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001ĝ€ "2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997ĝ€ "2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.

Spousal concordance in health behavior change.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the degree to which a married individual's health habits and use of preventive medical care are influenced by his or her spouse's behaviors. STUDY DESIGN: Using longitudinal data on individuals and their spouses, we examine changes over time in the health habits of each person as a function of changes in his or her spouse's health habits. Specifically, we analyze changes in smoking, drinking, exercising, cholesterol screening, and obtaining a flu shot. DATA SOURCE: This study uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative sample of individuals born between 1931 and 1941 and their spouses. Beginning in 1992, 12,652 persons (age-eligible individuals as well as their spouses) from 7,702 households were surveyed about many aspects of their life, including health behaviors, use of preventive services, and disease diagnosis. SAMPLE: The analytic sample includes 6,072 individuals who are married at the time of the initial HRS survey and who remain married and in the sample at the time of the 1996 and 2000 waves. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We consistently find that when one spouse improves his or her behavior, the other spouse is likely to do so as well. This is found across all the behaviors analyzed, and persists despite controlling for many other factors. CONCLUSIONS: Simultaneous changes occur in a number of health behaviors. This conclusion has prescriptive implications for developing interventions, treatments, and policies to improve health habits and for evaluating the impact of such measures.

'Dare the boist'rous main': the role of the Belfast Newsletter in the process of emigration from Ulster to North America 1760-1800

Before the mass migrations from Ireland in the nineteenth century, earlier waves of migration in the eighteenth century saw significant numbers of people leave Ireland, predominantly from Ulster, to settle in North America. This article, using as its principal data source the Belfast News Letter ( BNL), its letters, advertisements and reports, focuses firstly on reconstructing the late eighteenth-century migration process and voyage, highlighting the barriers represented by the Atlantic Ocean. In addition to the challenges of the sea, there were problems with the ships, the ever-present danger of disease and also threats from other vessels, from privateers to press gangs. The voyage was recognized as a ‘universal dread’, and the risks taken to ‘dare the boist’rous main’ were perhaps not minimized in the pages of the BNL, whose editorial stance was antipathetic to the migration for the potential harm it caused to Ulster by removing so many of its industrious young. The second part of this article goes on to consider the newspaper’s and others’ vested interests in the emigration process, demonstrates how these were manifested in the press and sets the coverage of this very significant early emigration flow within the context of contemporary religious and colonial discourses at a period of very lively transatlantic interactions.

Disparities in breast cancer mortality trends between 30 European countries: Retrospective trend analysis of WHO mortality database

Objective: To examine changes in temporal trends in breast cancer mortality in women living in 30 European countries.
Design: Retrospective trend analysis.
Data source: WHO mortality database on causes of deaths
Subjects reviewed: Female deaths from breast cancer from 1989 to 2006
Main outcome measures: Changes in breast cancer mortality for all women and by age group (<50, 50-69, and >= 70 years) calculated from linear regressions of log transformed, age adjusted death rates. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the year when trends in all age mortality began to change.
Results: From 1989 to 2006, there was a median reduction in breast cancer mortality of 19%, ranging from a 45% reduction in Iceland to a 17% increase in Romania. Breast cancer mortality decreased by >= 20% in 15 countries, and the reduction tended to be greater in countries with higher mortality in 1987-9. England and Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland had the second, third, and fourth largest decreases of 35%, 29%, and 30%, respectively. In France, Finland, and Sweden, mortality decreased by 11%, 12%, and 16%, respectively. In central European countries mortality did not decline or even increased during the period. Downward mortality trends usually started between 1988 and 1996, and the persistent reduction from 1999 to 2006 indicates that these trends may continue. The median changes in the age groups were -37% (range -76% to -14%) in women aged <50, -21% (-40% to 14%) in 50-69 year olds, and -2% (-42% to 80%) in >= 70 year olds.
Conclusions: Changes in breast cancer mortality after 1988 varied widely between European countries, and the UK is among the countries with the largest reductions. Women aged <50 years showed the greatest reductions in mortality, also in countries where screening at that age is uncommon. The increasing mortality in some central European countries reflects avoidable mortality.

Increasing the accuracy of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) pollution mapping using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geostatistics.

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is known to act as an environmental trigger for many respiratory illnesses. As a pollutant it is difficult to map accurately, as concentrations can vary greatly over small distances. In this study three geostatistical techniques were compared, producing maps of NO2 concentrations in the United Kingdom (UK). The primary data source for each technique was NO2 point data, generated from background automatic monitoring and background diffusion tubes, which are analysed by different laboratories on behalf of local councils and authorities in the UK. The techniques used were simple kriging (SK), ordinary kriging (OK) and simple kriging with a locally varying mean (SKlm). SK and OK make use of the primary variable only. SKlm differs in that it utilises additional data to inform prediction, and hence potentially reduces uncertainty. The secondary data source was Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) derived from dispersion modelling outputs, at 1km x 1km resolution for the UK. These data were used to define the locally varying mean in SKlm, using two regression approaches: (i) global regression (GR) and (ii) geographically weighted regression (GWR). Based upon summary statistics and cross-validation prediction errors, SKlm using GWR derived local means produced the most accurate predictions. Therefore, using GWR to inform SKlm was beneficial in this study.

Availability of stage at diagnosis, cancer treatment delay and compliance with cancer guidelines as cancer registry indicators for cancer care in Europe:Results of EUROCHIP-3 survey

EUROCHIP (European Cancer Health Indicators Project) focuses on understanding inequalities in the cancer burden, care and survival by the indicators "stage at diagnosis," "cancer treatment delay" and "compliance with cancer guidelines" as the most important indicators. Our study aims at providing insight in whether cancer registries collect well-defined variables to determine these indicators in a comparative way. Eighty-six general European population-based cancer registries (PBCR) from 32 countries responded to the questionnaire, which was developed by EUROCHIP in collaboration with ENCR (European Network of Cancer Registries) and EUROCOURSE. Only 15% of all the PBCR in EU had all three indicators available. The indicator "stage at diagnosis" was gathered for at least one cancer site by 81% (using TNM in 39%). Variables for the indicator "cancer treatment delay" were collected by 37%. Availability of type of treatment (30%), surgery date (36%), starting date of radiotherapy (26%) and starting date of chemotherapy (23%) resulted in 15% of the PBCRs to be able to gather the indicator "compliance to guidelines". Lack of data source access and qualified staff were the major reasons for not collecting all the variables. In conclusion, based on self-reporting, a few of the participating PBCRs had data available which could be used for clinical audits, evaluation of cancer care projects, survival and for monitoring national cancer control strategies. Extra efforts should be made to improve this very efficient tool to compare cancer burden and the effects of the national cancer plans over Europe and to learn from each other. © 2012 UICC.

The canadian longitudinal study on aging (CLSA)

Canadians are living longer, and older persons are making up a larger share of the population (14% in 2006, projected to rise to 20% by 2021). The Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA) is a national longitudinal study of adult development and aging that will recruit 50,000 Canadians aged 45 to 85 years of age and follow them for at least 20 years. All participants will provide a common set of information concerning many aspects of health and aging, and 30,000 will undergo an additional in-depth examination coupled with the donation of biological specimens (blood and urine). The CLSA will become a rich data source for the study of the complex interrelationship among the biological, physical, psychosocial, and societal factors that affect healthy aging. © 2009 Canadian Association on Gerontology.

Predicting forest attributes In southeast Alaska using artificial neural networks

Artificial neural network (ANN) methods are used to predict forest characteristics. The data source is the Southeast Alaska (SEAK) Grid Inventory, a ground survey compiled by the USDA Forest Service at several thousand sites. The main objective of this article is to predict characteristics at unsurveyed locations between grid sites. A secondary objective is to evaluate the relative performance of different ANNs. Data from the grid sites are used to train six ANNs: multilayer perceptron, fuzzy ARTMAP, probabilistic, generalized regression, radial basis function, and learning vector quantization. A classification and regression tree method is used for comparison. Topographic variables are used to construct models: latitude and longitude coordinates, elevation, slope, and aspect. The models classify three forest characteristics: crown closure, species land cover, and tree size/structure. Models are constructed using n-fold cross-validation. Predictive accuracy is calculated using a method that accounts for the influence of misclassification as well as measuring correct classifications. The probabilistic and generalized regression networks are found to be the most accurate. The predictions of the ANN models are compared with a classification of the Tongass national forest in southeast Alaska based on the interpretation of satellite imagery and are found to be of similar accuracy.

Video Lecture Capture : Student Engagement

Video Capture of university lectures enables learners to be more flexible in their learning behaviour, for instance choosing to attend lectures in person or watch later. However attendance at lectures has been linked to academic success and is of concern for faculty staff contemplating the introduction of Video Lecture Capture. This research study was devised to assess the impact on learning of recording lectures in computer programming courses. The study also considered behavioural trends and attitudes of the students watching recorded lectures, such as when, where, frequency, duration and viewing devices used. The findings suggest there is no detrimental effect on attendance at lectures with video materials being used to support continual and reinforced learning with most access occurring at assessment periods. The analysis of the viewing behaviours provides a rich and accessible data source that could be potentially leveraged to improve lecture quality and enhance lecturer and learning performance.

Late-Glacial and early Holocene marine 14C reservoir ages off North Iceland (16-9 cal kyr BP)

Tephrochronological age models and 48 14C age determinations on molluscs and foraminifera (planktonic and benthic) are applied for the calculation of marine 14C reservoir age variability during a time period covering the Heinrich event H1 to early Holocene (16–9 cal kyr BP). Our data source consists of four high-resolution marine sediment cores (HM107-04, HM107-05, MD99-2271, MD99-2275) from the North Icelandic shelf. The marine reservoir age (ΔR) is found to be extremely variable, ranging from 385 to 1065 14C years. Extreme ΔR values occur at the end of H1, with values around 1000 14C years (~15 cal kyr BP), probably due to reduced northward flow of well-ventilated subtropical surface waters and a southward expansion of polar waters, as well as an expansion of sea ice limiting air-sea gas exchange. With the onset of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, the ΔR values decrease towards 0 14C years suggesting a more vigorous North Atlantic Current and an active meridional overturning circulation system. During the Younger Dryas stadial, ΔR values are consistently around 700 14C years suggesting e renewed expansion of polar waters and a weakened meridional overtuning circulation. Interestingly, ΔR values remain high (~200 14C years) at the onset of the Holocene suggesting continued high influence of polar waters. Subsequently, ΔR values rapidly decrease to ~¬ 250 14C years around 11 cal kyr BP, indicating increased air-sea CO2 exchange with the coeval atmosphere. The ΔR values average around 0 14C years from around 10.5 to 9.0 cal kyr BP.

Analysing the results of UK urban freight studies

The paper is based on work carried out as part of the Green Logistics project1. The paper provides a review of urban freight studies that have taken place in the UK over approximately a thirty year period from the early 1970 s to the present (this is the first attempt at such a review in the UK as far as the authors are aware). Coverage of both goods collection and delivery vehicle activity and service vehicle activity is included. This review covers the survey techniques used, as well as the survey results obtained. Comparisons are made between the results of studies from the 1970 s and those carried out in the last decade in order to gain insight to changes in urban freight transport operations. The data provided in the studies reviewed is extremely important as it provides insight into urban freight operations that is unavailable from any other data source, including national freight surveys conducted by government. However, until now, the results of these studies have not been widely disseminated or compared.

A Benefit-Risk Assessment Framework for Development of Clinical Guidelines in Diagnostic Radiology

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015-12

Siawise Audit

Intitulada SIAWISE AUDIT, esta dissertação pretende apresentar o desenvolvimento de uma aplicação informática com o mesmo nome, e o conceito que esta defende e de que forma pode simplificar e reduzir o trabalho dos seus utilizadores. O SIAWISE AUDIT surge da necessidade de modernizar, informatizar e acelerar o processo de auditoria de conformidade legal prestado pela empresa acolhedora e mentora do projeto – a SIA. Sucintamente, o projeto visava a implementação de uma aplicação desenvolvida inicialmente tendo como alvo o Windows 8.1 mas que atualmente já é compatível com o novo Windows 10. A solução tem como principal característica o funcionamento em modo offline, essencial ao trabalho no terreno e em instalações de recursos frequentemente limitados no que refere à utilização de Internet. A aplicação tem como fonte de dados o software de gestão de legislação da SIA – o SIAWISE – que contém todos os dados relativos à legislação aplicável a cada cliente. Por se tratar de uma ferramenta exclusivamente para uso interno da organização, a interação e comunicações são sempre efetuadas através do BackOffice – o SIAWISE MASTER – este permite a importação e exportação de dados referentes à auditoria para o SIAWISE AUDIT. O resultado do processo de auditoria com recurso ao SIAWISE AUDIT tem como principal output a geração automática de um relatório de auditoria pronto a entregar ao cliente.

Supplier's position in project marketing networks

The present study explores relationships between project marketers and their customers in project marketing context. The purpose of the study is to increase the understanding on supplier’s position in project marketing networks. Project marketing is representing a high volume in the international business, and the industrial network approach and the project marketing research cannot fully explain a supplier’s position in project marketing networks. Increased knowledge on project networks can also contribute to industrial marketing research more generally. Data for the present study was collected firstly during the pilot case study from project buyers in the paper and the steel industry in interviews. Secondly an entire project marketing case concerning a steel industry case was used as a data source. The data included interviews, correspondence between the supplier and the buyer, and project documents. The data of the pilot case was analysed with contents analysis, and in the case a deeper analysis based on the developed Stage Dimension framework was used. Supplier’s position in project marketing networks is a hierarchical and dynamic concept including a supplier’s position on the highest level. The dimensions of the position concept are the intermediate level, and the dimensions are based on the underlying components. Supplier’s position is composed from four organization related dimensions, and two individual actor related dimensions. The composition of the supplier’s position varies during the project marketing process, and consequently the relative importance of the dimensions is changing over the process. Supplier’s position in project marketing networks is shaped by incremental and radical changes. Radical changes are initiated by critical events. The study contributes to the research of industrial networks and project marketing. The theoretical contribution of the study is threefold: firstly it proposes a structure of the position concept in project marketing networks, secondly it proposes the Position Stage Dimension Component (PSDC) model for the development of supplier’s position during the project marketing process, and thirdly the study widens the critical event concept to cover the project marketing process both on the organizational and individual level. In addition to the theoretical contributions there are several managerial implications for planning and implementing marketing strategies in the project context.

La migration de retour de la population italienne immigrée au Canada et en Belgique

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal