Reproductive biology of carpenter seabream (Argyrozona argyrozona) (Pisces: Sparidae) in a marine protected area

The carpenter seabream (Argyrozona argyrozona) is an endemic South African sparid that comprises an important part of the handline fishery. A three-year study (1998−2000) into its reproductive biology within the Tsitsikamma National Park revealed that these fishes are serial spawning late gonochorists. The size at 50% maturity (L50) was estimated at 292 and 297 mm FL for both females and males, respectively. A likelihood ratio test revealed that there was no significant difference between male and female L50 (P>0.5). Both monthly gonadosomatic indices and macroscopically determined ovarian stages strongly indicate that A. argyrozona within the Tsitsikamma National Park spawn in the astral summer between November and April. The presence of postovulatory follicles (POFs) confirmed a six-month spawning season, and monthly proportions of early (0−6 hour old) POFs showed that spawning frequency was highest (once every 1−2 days) from December to March. Although spawning season was more highly correlated to photoperiod (r = 0.859) than temperature (r = −0.161), the daily proportion of spawning fish was strongly correlated (r= 0.93) to ambient temperature over the range 9−22oC. These results indicate that short-term upwelling events, a strong feature in the Tsitsikamma National Park during summer, may negatively affect carpenter fecundity. Both spawning frequency and duration (i.e., length of spawning season) increased with fish length. As a result of the allometric relationship between annual fecundity and fish mass a 3-kg fish was calculated to produce fivefold more eggs per kilogram of body weight than a fish of 1 kg. In addition to producing more eggs per unit of weight each year, larger fish also produce significantly larger eggs.

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.

Seasonal growth of King George whiting (Sillaginodes punctata) estimated from length-at-age samples of the legal-size harvest

Samples of 11,000 King George whiting (Sillaginodes punctata) from the South Australian commercial and recreational catch, supplemented by research samples, were aged from otoliths. Samples were analyzed from three coastal regions and by sex. Most sampling was undertaken at fish processing plants, from which only fish longer than the legal minimum length were obtained. A left-truncated normal distribution of lengths at monthly age was therefore employed as model likelihood. Mean length-at-monthly-age was described by a generalized von Bertalanffy formula with sinusoidal seasonality. Likelihood standard deviation was modeled to vary allometrically with mean length. A range of related formulas (with 6 to 8 parameters) for seasonal mean length at age were compared. In addition to likelihood ratio tests of relative fit, model selection criteria were a minimum occurrence of high uncertainties (>20% SE), of high correlations (>0.9, >0.95, and >0.99) and of parameter estimates at their biological limits, and we sought a model with a minimum number of parameters. A generalized von Bertalanffy formula with t0 fixed at 0 was chosen. The truncated likelihood alleviated the overestimation bias of mean length at age that would otherwise accrue from catch samples being restricted to legal sizes.

16 chip, 18 Gchips/s walsh-code implementation of an ECDMA access network using two time-shifted FIR filters

We demonstrate for the first time an electronically processed Walsh Code with 16 chips at 18Gchip/s. An auto-cross correlation ratio of 18.1dB is achieved between two orthogonal codes after transmission over 10km of SMF. © 2009 OSA.

Double ionization of helium in collision with 20-500-keV/amu Cq+ and Oq+ (q=1-3) ions

Target ionization and projectile charge changing were investigated for 20-500 keV/u Cq+, Oq++He (q=1-3) collisions. Double- to single-ionization ratios R-21 of helium associated with no projectile charge change (direct ionization), single-electron capture, and single-electron loss were measured. The cross-section ratio R-21 depends strongly on the collision velocity v, the projectile charge state q, and the outgoing reaction channel. Meanwhile, a model extended from our previous work [J. X. Shao, X. M. Chen, and B. W. Ding, Phys. Rev. A 75, 012701 (2007)] is presented to interpret the above-mentioned dependences. Good agreement is found between the model and the experimental data.

Slow isocharged sequence ions with helium collisions: Projectile core dependence

The collisions of the isocharged sequence ions of q=6 (C6+, N6+, O6+, F6+, Ne6+, Ar6+, and Ca6+), q=7 (F7+, Ne7+, S7+, Ar7+, and Ca7+), q=8 (F8+, Ne8+, Ar8+, and Ca8+), q=9 (F9+, Ne9+, Si9+, S9+, Ar9+, and Ca9+) and q=11 (Si11+, Ar11+, and Ca11+) with helium at the same velocities were investigated. The cross-section ratios of the double-electron transfer (DET) to the single-electron capture (SEC) sigma(DET)/sigma(SEC) and the true double-electron capture (TDC) to the double-electron transfer sigma(TDC)/sigma(DET) were measured. It shows that for different ions in an isocharged sequence, the experimental cross-section ratio sigma(DET)/sigma(SEC) varies by a factor of 3. The results confirm that the projectile core is another dominant factor besides the charge state and the collision velocity in slow (0.35-0.49v(0); v(0) denotes the Bohr velocity) highly charged ions (HCIs) with helium collisions. The experimental cross-section ratio sigma(DET)/sigma(SEC) is compared with the extended classical over-barrier model (ECBM) [A. Barany , Nucl. Instrum. Methods Phys. Res. B 9, 397 (1985)], the molecular Coulombic barrier model (MCBM) [A. Niehaus, J. Phys. B 19, 2925 (1986)], and the semiempirical scaling laws (SSL) [N. Selberg , Phys. Rev. A 54, 4127 (1996)]. It also shows that the projectile core properties affect the initial capture probabilities as well as the subsequent relaxation of the projectiles. The experimental cross-section ratio sigma(TDC)/sigma(DET) for those lower isocharged sequences is dramatically affected by the projectile core structure, while for those sufficiently highly isocharged sequences, the autoionization always dominates, hence the cross-section ratio sigma(TDC)/sigma(DET) is always small.

Single- and double-electron processes in collisions of Xe23+ ions with helium

We report the measurements of relative cross sections for single capture (SC), double capture (DC), single ionization (SI), double ionization (DI), and transfer ionization (TI) in collisions of Xe23+ ions with helium atoms in the velocity range of 0.65-1.32 a.u. The relative cross sections show a weak velocity dependence. The cross-section ratio of double-(DE) to single-electron (SE) removal from He, sigma(DE)/sigma(SE), is about 0.45. Single capture is the dominant reaction channel which is followed by transfer ionization, while only very small probabilities are found for pure ionization and double capture. The present experimental data are in satisfactory agreement with the estimations by the extended classical over-barrier (ECB) model..

Comparative molecular population genetics of phycoerythrin locus in Prochlorococcus

As the only remainder type of phycobiliproteins in Prochlorococcus, the actual role of phycoerythrin still remains unknown. Previous studies revealed that two different forms of phycoerythrin gene were found in two ecotypes of Prochlorococcus that are specifically adapted to either high light (HL) or low light (LL) conditions. Here we analyze patterns of phycoerythrin nucleotide variation in the HL- and LL-Prochlorococcus populations. Our analyses reveal a significantly greater number of non-synonymous fixed substitutions in peB and peA than expected based on interspecific comparisons. This pattern of excess non-synonymous fixed substitutions is not seen in other five phycoerythrin-related genes (peZ/V/Y/T/S). Several neutrality statistical tests indicate an excess of rare frequency polymorphisms in the LL-Prochlorococcus data, but an excess of intermediate frequency polymorphisms in the HL-Prochlorococcus data. Distributions of the positively selected sites identified using the likelihood ratio test, when mapped onto the phycoerythrin tertiary structure, reveal that HL- and LL-phycoerythrin should be under different selective patterns. These findings may provide insights into the likely role of selection at the phycoerythrin locus and motivate further research to unveil the function of phycoerythrin in Prochlorococcus.

雨生红球藻中虾青素合成相关酶基因的转录调控序列分析

虾青素是一种具有极强抗氧化活性的类胡萝卜素，具有广泛的应用价值。雨生红球藻是一种单细胞绿藻，在逆境胁迫条件下能够大量合成并迅速积累虾青素，其积累量最高可达细胞干重的4%，从而成为目前首选的天然虾青素合成工具。但是，虾青素的大量积累总是发生在不适于生物量积累的环境胁迫条件下，虾青素积累与生物量积累之间成为一对矛盾，制约着虾青素大量生产。 异戊烯焦磷酸异构酶（IPI）、β-胡萝卜素酮化酶（BKT）和β-胡萝卜素氧化酶（CRTO）是虾青素合成过程中的相关酶。已有研究结果表明，这些酶基因的表达调控至少是部分发生在转录水平上的，这就为我们从转录水平上研究虾青素生物合成关键酶基因的调控机制提供了重要线索。 本文研究结果如下： 1. 利用基因组步移的方法克隆了两条异戊烯焦磷酸异构酶基因（ipi）的5’上游侧翼序列（1.8kb和2.5kb），预示着ipi的转录由不止一个启动子调控。 2. 利用上述方法克隆了两条β-胡萝卜素氧化酶基因（crtO）5'上游侧翼序列（1kb和2kb）。以lacZ为报告基因的瞬间表达实验结果表明，长度为320bp(-682/-363)的crtO 5'上游侧翼序列具有很强的启动转录活性，提示这段序列包含了启动子的结构。 3. 利用凝胶阻滞的方法研究了雨生红球藻中bkt强启动转录活性区域，即 309bp(-617/-309)启动子区域的转录因子结合位点，并发现在-396/-338的59bp区域内存在特异的核蛋白结合位点。通过序列分析，发现此59bp区域并不包含TATA或者CAAT-box，而是存在对光、缺氧、p-香豆酸及激素反应的G-box。 4. 根据国外已经获得的ipi和crtO全长cDNA序列，利用长距离PCR法从红球藻基因组中扩增到基因组序列。发现ipi和crtO均包含6个外显子和5个内含子，内含子的剪切位点基本符合GU-AG规律。并通过似然比检验（Likelihood ratio test）的方法发现两基因在进化过程中存在着正选择现象。 这些工作为下一步继续寻找与上述特定DNA调控区域特异结合的反式作用因子（蛋白质因子）奠定了基础。

The evaluation of evidence for exponentially distributed data

C.G.G. Aitken, Q. Shen, R. Jensen and B. Hayes. The evaluation of evidence for exponentially distributed data. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol. 51, no. 12, pp. 5682-5693, 2007.

How Well Can TCP Infer Network State?

The Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) has been the protocol of choice for many Internet applications requiring reliable connections. The design of TCP has been challenged by the extension of connections over wireless links. We ask a fundamental question: What is the basic predictive power of TCP of network state, including wireless error conditions? The goal is to improve or readily exploit this predictive power to enable TCP (or variants) to perform well in generalized network settings. To that end, we use Maximum Likelihood Ratio tests to evaluate TCP as a detector/estimator. We quantify how well network state can be estimated, given network response such as distributions of packet delays or TCP throughput that are conditioned on the type of packet loss. Using our model-based approach and extensive simulations, we demonstrate that congestion-induced losses and losses due to wireless transmission errors produce sufficiently different statistics upon which an efficient detector can be built; distributions of network loads can provide effective means for estimating packet loss type; and packet delay is a better signal of network state than short-term throughput. We demonstrate how estimation accuracy is influenced by different proportions of congestion versus wireless losses and penalties on incorrect estimation.

A Bayesian Approach for TCP to Distinguish Congestion from Wireless Losses

(This Technical Report revises TR-BUCS-2003-011) The Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) has been the protocol of choice for many Internet applications requiring reliable connections. The design of TCP has been challenged by the extension of connections over wireless links. In this paper, we investigate a Bayesian approach to infer at the source host the reason of a packet loss, whether congestion or wireless transmission error. Our approach is "mostly" end-to-end since it requires only one long-term average quantity (namely, long-term average packet loss probability over the wireless segment) that may be best obtained with help from the network (e.g. wireless access agent).Specifically, we use Maximum Likelihood Ratio tests to evaluate TCP as a classifier of the type of packet loss. We study the effectiveness of short-term classification of packet errors (congestion vs. wireless), given stationary prior error probabilities and distributions of packet delays conditioned on the type of packet loss (measured over a larger time scale). Using our Bayesian-based approach and extensive simulations, we demonstrate that congestion-induced losses and losses due to wireless transmission errors produce sufficiently different statistics upon which an efficient online error classifier can be built. We introduce a simple queueing model to underline the conditional delay distributions arising from different kinds of packet losses over a heterogeneous wired/wireless path. We show how Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) can be used by a TCP connection to infer efficiently conditional delay distributions. We demonstrate how estimation accuracy is influenced by different proportions of congestion versus wireless losses and penalties on incorrect classification.

On classical and other methods of discriminant analysis and estimation of log-odds

For two multinormal populations with equal covariance matrices the likelihood ratio discriminant function, an alternative allocation rule to the sample linear discriminant function when n1 ≠ n2 ,is studied analytically. With the assumption of a known covariance matrix its distribution is derived and the expectation of its actual and apparent error rates evaluated and compared with those of the sample linear discriminant function. This comparison indicates that the likelihood ratio allocation rule is robust to unequal sample sizes. The quadratic discriminant function is studied, its distribution reviewed and evaluation of its probabilities of misclassification discussed. For known covariance matrices the distribution of the sample quadratic discriminant function is derived. When the known covariance matrices are proportional exact expressions for the expectation of its actual and apparent error rates are obtained and evaluated. The effectiveness of the sample linear discriminant function for this case is also considered. Estimation of true log-odds for two multinormal populations with equal or unequal covariance matrices is studied. The estimative, Bayesian predictive and a kernel method are compared by evaluating their biases and mean square errors. Some algebraic expressions for these quantities are derived. With equal covariance matrices the predictive method is preferable. Where it derives this superiority is investigated by considering its performance for various levels of fixed true log-odds. It is also shown that the predictive method is sensitive to n1 ≠ n2. For unequal but proportional covariance matrices the unbiased estimative method is preferred. Product Normal kernel density estimates are used to give a kernel estimator of true log-odds. The effect of correlation in the variables with product kernels is considered. With equal covariance matrices the kernel and parametric estimators are compared by simulation. For moderately correlated variables and large dimension sizes the product kernel method is a good estimator of true log-odds.

Survival analysis of adult tuberculosis disease

Background: We conducted a survival analysis of all the confirmed cases of Adult Tuberculosis (TB) patients treated in Cork-City, Ireland. The aim of this study was to estimate Survival time (ST), including median time of survival and to assess the association and impact of covariates (TB risk factors) to event status and ST. The outcome of the survival analysis is reported in this paper. Methods: We used a retrospective cohort study research design to review data of 647 bacteriologically confirmed TB patients from the medical record of two teaching hospitals. Mean age 49 years (Range 18–112). We collected information on potential risk factors of all confirmed cases of TB treated between 2008–2012. For the survival analysis, the outcome of interest was ‘treatment failure’ or ‘death’ (whichever came first). A univariate descriptive statistics analysis was conducted using a non- parametric procedure, Kaplan -Meier (KM) method to estimate overall survival (OS), while the Cox proportional hazard model was used for the multivariate analysis to determine possible association of predictor variables and to obtain adjusted hazard ratio. P value was set at <0.05, log likelihood ratio test at >0.10. Data were analysed using SPSS version 15.0. Results: There was no significant difference in the survival curves of male and female patients. (Log rank statistic = 0.194, df = 1, p = 0.66) and among different age group (Log rank statistic = 1.337, df = 3, p = 0.72). The mean overall survival (OS) was 209 days (95%CI: 92–346) while the median was 51 days (95% CI: 35.7–66). The mean ST for women was 385 days (95%CI: 76.6–694) and for men was 69 days (95%CI: 48.8–88.5). Multivariate Cox regression showed that patient who had history of drug misuse had 2.2 times hazard than those who do not have drug misuse. Smokers and alcohol drinkers had hazard of 1.8 while patients born in country of high endemicity (BICHE) had hazard of 6.3 and HIV co-infection hazard was 1.2. Conclusion: There was no significant difference in survival curves of male and female and among age group. Women had a higher ST compared to men. But men had a higher hazard rate compared to women. Anti-TNF, immunosuppressive medication and diabetes were found to be associated with longer ST, while alcohol, smoking, RICHE, BICHE was associated with shorter ST.

Monitoring growth in asthmatic children treated with high dose inhaled glucocorticoids does not predict adrenal suppression

Aims: To determine whether routine outpatient monitoring of growth predicts adrenal suppression in prepubertal children treated with high dose inhaled glucocorticoid.

Methods: Observational study of 35 prepubertal children (aged 4–10 years) treated with at least 1000 µg/day of inhaled budesonide or equivalent potency glucocorticoid for at least six months. Main outcome measures were: changes in HtSDS over 6 and 12 month periods preceding adrenal function testing, and increment and peak cortisol after stimulation by low dose tetracosactrin test. Adrenal suppression was defined as a peak cortisol 500 nmol/l.

Results: The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves for a decrease in HtSDS as a predictor of adrenal insufficiency 6 and 12 months prior to adrenal testing were 0.50 (SE 0.10) and 0.59 (SE 0.10). Prediction values of an HtSDS change of –0.5 for adrenal insufficiency at 12 months prior to testing were: sensitivity 13%, specificity 95%, and positive likelihood ratio of 2.4. Peak cortisol reached correlated poorly with change in HtSDS ( = 0.23, p = 0.19 at 6 months; = 0.33, p = 0.06 at 12 months).

Conclusions: Monitoring growth does not enable prediction of which children treated with high dose inhaled glucocorticoids are at risk of potentially serious adrenal suppression. Both growth and adrenal function should be monitored in patients on high dose inhaled glucocorticoids. Further research is required to determine the optimal frequency of monitoring adrenal function.