Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskyvynmittauksen ja tavoiteasetannan kehittämismahdollisuudet

Suomen hallintotuomioistuinten mittaristotyöryhmä on laatinut oikeusasioiden hallintaa parantavan käsittelyn viivästymisestä varoittavan hälytysjärjestelmän sekä luokitellut asiat työmäärään perustuen. Luokille on laadittu työmäärää kuvaavat painokertoimet. Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena on tutkia asiahallintajärjestelmään tehtyjen uudistusten mahdollistamia suorituskyvynmittauksen ja tavoiteasetannan kehittämismahdollisuuksia asiavirtauksen näkökulmasta. Tavoitteeseen pääsemiseksi selvitetään työmääräpainotuksen vaikutuksia hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskyvyn tunnuslukuihin sekä analysoidaan hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskykyä työmääräpainotuksella vuosina 2009-2012. Raportti sisältää tutkimuksen aihetta käsittelevän teoriakatsauksen ja kohdeorganisaatiota tutkivan empiirisen osuuden. Empiirinen osuus perustuu vahvasti kvantitatiiviseen tutkimukseen. Tutkimuksen tuloksena havaittiin, että työmääräpainotus kaventaa hallintooikeuksien välisiä suorituskykyeroja, mutta huomattavia eroja esiintyy myös työmääräpainotuksilla tarkasteltuna. Hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskyvyissä esiintyy eroja sekä oikeuksien välillä että oikeuksien sisällä eri vuosina. Analysoimalla nykyisiä suorituskyvyn mittauksen ja tavoiteasetannan käytäntöjä, voidaan esittää neljä kehittämisen painopistettä: 1) tavoiteasetannan tekeminen pidemmälle tähtäimelle, 2) mittauksen ja seurannan painopiste toteutuneesta ennakointiin, 3) suorituskyvyn tunnusluvut vastaamaan työmääräpainotusta ja 4) tavoitetasojen yhdenmukaistaminen. Näiden havaittujen kehittämispainopisteiden ja suorituskykyanalyysien pohjalta luotiin vaihtoehtoinen tapa mitata suorituskykyä ja asettaa tavoitteita. Kehittämisehdotusta havainnollistettiin erilaisten skenaarioiden avulla. Työ tarjoaa hyödyllistä tietoa hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskyvystä ja siitä millaisia mahdollisuuksia asianhallinnan uudistukset tuovat hallinto-oikeuksien suorituskyvyn kehittämiseen ja seurantaan.

Ion mobility spectrometry in liquid analysis

Ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) is a straightforward, low cost method for fast and sensitive determination of organic and inorganic analytes. Originally this portable technique was applied to the determination of gas phase compounds in security and military use. Nowadays, IMS has received increasing attention in environmental and biological analysis, and in food quality determination. This thesis consists of literature review of suitable sample preparation and introduction methods for liquid matrices applicable to IMS from its early development stages to date. Thermal desorption, solid phase microextraction (SPME) and membrane extraction were examined in experimental investigations of hazardous aquatic pollutants and potential pollutants. Also the effect of different natural waters on the extraction efficiency was studied, and the utilised IMS data processing methods are discussed. Parameters such as extraction and desorption temperatures, extraction time, SPME fibre depth, SPME fibre type and salt addition were examined for the studied sample preparation and introduction methods. The observed critical parameters were extracting material and temperature. The extraction methods showed time and cost effectiveness because sampling could be performed in single step procedures and from different natural water matrices within a few minutes. Based on these experimental and theoretical studies, the most suitable method to test in the automated monitoring system is membrane extraction. In future an IMS based early warning system for monitoring water pollutants could ensure the safe supply of drinking water. IMS can also be utilised for monitoring natural waters in cases of environmental leakage or chemical accidents. When combined with sophisticated sample introduction methods, IMS possesses the potential for both on-line and on-site identification of analytes in different water matrices.

Sensor-based Control of Chewing and Rumination Behavior of Dairy Cows

The measurement of feed intake, feeding time and rumination time, summarized by the term feeding behavior, are helpful indicators for early recognition of animals which show deviations in their behavior. The overall objective of this work was the development of an early warning system for inadequate feeding rations and digestive and metabolic disorders, which prevention constitutes the basis for health, performance, and reproduction. In a literature review, the current state of the art and the suitability of different measurement tools to determine feeding behavior of ruminants was discussed. Five measurement methods based on different methodological approaches (visual observance, pressure transducer, electrical switches, electrical deformation sensors and acoustic biotelemetry), and three selected measurement techniques (the IGER Behavior Recorder, the Hi-Tag rumination monitoring system and RumiWatchSystem) were described, assessed and compared to each other within this review. In the second study, the new system for measuring feeding behavior of dairy cows was evaluated. The measurement of feeding behavior ensues through electromyography (EMG). For validation, the feeding behavior of 14 cows was determined by both the EMG system and by visual observation. The high correlation coefficients indicate that the current system is a reliable and suitable tool for monitoring the feeding behavior of dairy cows. The aim of a further study was to compare the DairyCheck (DC) system and two additional measurement systems for measuring rumination behavior in relation to efficiency, reliability and reproducibility, with respect to each other. The two additional systems were labeled as the Lely Qwes HR (HR) sensor, and the RumiWatchSystem (RW). Results of accordance of RW and DC to each other were high. The last study examined whether rumination time (RT) is affected by the onset of calving and if it might be a useful indicator for the prediction of imminent birth. Data analysis referred to the final 72h before the onset of calving, which were divided into twelve 6h-blocks. The results showed that RT was significantly reduced in the final 6h before imminent birth.

A new approach to real time traffic sign recognition based on colour information

The automatic interpretation of conventional traffic signs is very complex and time consuming. The paper concerns an automatic warning system for driving assistance. It does not interpret the standard traffic signs on the roadside; the proposal is to incorporate into the existing signs another type of traffic sign whose information will be more easily interpreted by a processor. The type of information to be added is profuse and therefore the most important object is the robustness of the system. The basic proposal of this new philosophy is that the co-pilot system for automatic warning and driving assistance can interpret with greater ease the information contained in the new sign, whilst the human driver only has to interpret the "classic" sign. One of the codings that has been tested with good results and which seems to us easy to implement is that which has a rectangular shape and 4 vertical bars of different colours. The size of these signs is equivalent to the size of the conventional signs (approximately 0.4 m2). The colour information from the sign can be easily interpreted by the proposed processor and the interpretation is much easier and quicker than the information shown by the pictographs of the classic signs

Modelo de un sistema de vigilancia epidemiológico empresarial

El objetivo de este trabajo es describir la experiencia de la elaboración de un modelo de sistema de vigilancia epidemiológica empresarial que permita identificar a través de un sistema de alerta temprana patologías empresariales que requieren acciones rápidas para su control. Su objetivo primordial es monitorear la tendencia epidemiológica de estos eventos que se consideren de gran impacto en la salud empresarial, para ser controladas con acciones específicas. También permitirá la captura de información con el objetivo de construir bases de datos que generen estadísticas necesarias para la creación de políticas empresariales del sector. Adicionalmente estos datos nos facilitarán la construcción de indicadores. Se realizo un estudio de tipo descriptivo exploratorio (corte transversal), población Hospitales del Distrito Capital y que cumplieron con criterios de inclusión y exclusión. Se aplico un instrumento para la recolección de datos a 43 empresas, 10 gerentes 5 subgerentes, 3 subgerentes financieros y 6 administrativos. En el análisis se observo que los hospitales del Distrito a pesar que tienen los balances financieros se evidencia reducciones de nominas en un 42%, deudas en un 76%, al revisar el aspectos logísticos y de distribución la pérdida de clientes es del 71%. Con lo relacionado al mercado podríamos decir que las tarifas y la normatividad afectan negativamente a las empresas del sector salud en un 63%.El estudio demostró que las empresas a pesar de contar con sus análisis financieros y análisis del mercado aun se presentan comportamientos que afecta la prestación del servicio con llevando a la morbi - mortalidades de empresarial.

El papel de las organizaciones Internacionales en la imagen de los Estados en el escenario internacional: La crisis Financiera de Argentina y la actuación del Fondo Monetario Internacional 2000- 2010

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo identificar el papel que tuvo el Fondo Monetario Internacional [FMI] en el cambio de la imagen del Estado argentino después de la crisis financiera que estalló en el 2001. Como consecuencia de la declaración de default por parte del gobierno argentino se da un cambio en la imagen financiera del país, influenciada por el FMI, que convierte a Argentina en un paria internacional en temas financieros y comerciales alejándolo de los mercados internacionales. Este estudio de caso tendrá un acercamiento cualitativo dado que se analizarán las características, actuaciones y las bases crean el lazo entre las variables de la crisis financiera y el rol del FMI en Argentina y así poder entender su relación.

An objective, niche-based approach to indicator species selection

1. Species-based indices are frequently employed as surrogates for wider biodiversity health and measures of environmental condition. Species selection is crucial in determining an indicators metric value and hence the validity of the interpretation of ecosystem condition and function it provides, yet an objective process to identify appropriate indicator species is frequently lacking. 2. An effective indicator needs to (i) be representative, reflecting the status of wider biodiversity; (ii) be reactive, acting as early-warning systems for detrimental changes in environmental conditions; (iii) respond to change in a predictable way. We present an objective, niche-based approach for species' selection, founded on a coarse categorisation of species' niche space and key resource requirements, which ensures the resultant indicator has these key attributes. 3. We use UK farmland birds as a case study to demonstrate this approach, identifying an optimal indicator set containing 12 species. In contrast to the 19 species included in the farmland bird index (FBI), a key UK biodiversity indicator that contributes to one of the UK Government's headline indicators of sustainability, the niche space occupied by these species fully encompasses that occupied by the wider community of 62 species. 4. We demonstrate that the response of these 12 species to land-use change is a strong correlate to that of the wider farmland bird community. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of the index based on their population trends closely matches the population dynamics of the wider community. However, in both analyses, the magnitude of the change in our indicator was significantly greater, allowing this indicator to act as an early-warning system. 5. Ecological indicators are embedded in environmental management, sustainable development and biodiversity conservation policy and practice where they act as metrics against which progress towards national, regional and global targets can be measured. Adopting this niche-based approach for objective selection of indicator species will facilitate the development of sensitive and representative indices for a range of taxonomic groups, habitats and spatial scales.

The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards.

Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. Weather forecasts using multiple NWPs from various weather centres implemented on catchment hydrology can provide significantly improved early flood warning. The availability of global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the development of state-of-the-art early flood forecasting systems. This paper presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment (4062 km2) located in the Midlands region of England. For the first time, a research attempt is made to set up a coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic cascade system driven by the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE database. The study shows that precipitation input uncertainties dominate and propagate through the cascade chain. The current NWPs fall short of representing the spatial precipitation variability on such a comparatively small catchment, which indicates need to improve NWPs resolution and/or disaggregating techniques to narrow down the spatial gap between meteorology and hydrology. The spread of discharge forecasts varies from centre to centre, but it is generally large and implies a significant level of uncertainties. Nevertheless, the results show the TIGGE database is a promising tool to forecast flood inundation, comparable with that driven by raingauge observation.

Constraining the orbital orientation of eta Carinae from H Paschen lines

During the past decade, several observational and theoretical works have provided evidence of the binary nature of eta Carinae. Nevertheless, there is still no direct determination of the orbital parameters, and the different current models give contradictory results. The orbit is, in general, assumed to coincide with the Homunculus equator although the observations are not conclusive. Among all systems, eta Car has the advantage that it is possible to observe both the direct emission of line transitions in the central source and its reflection by the Homunculus, which is dependent on the orbital inclination. In this work, we studied the orbital phase-dependent hydrogen Paschen spectra reflected by the south-east lobe of the Homunculus to constrain the orbital parameters of eta Car and determine its inclination with respect to the Homunculus axis. Assuming that the emission excess originates in the wind-wind shock region, we were able to model the latitude dependence of the spectral line profiles. For the first time, we were able to estimate the orbital inclination of eta Car with respect to the observer and to the Homunculus axis. The best fit occurs for an orbital inclination to the line of sight of i similar to 60 degrees +/- 10 degrees, and i* similar to 35 degrees +/- 10 degrees with respect to the Homunculus axis, indicating that the angular momenta of the central object and the orbit are not aligned. We were also able to fix the phase angle of conjunction as similar to -40 degrees, showing that periastron passage occurs shortly after conjunction.

Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

Crise fiscal em municípios, indicadores e instrumentos

O objetivo deste artigo é desenvolver um conjunto de indicadores denominado Sistema Preventivo (Earlv Warning System) que permita diagnosticar a crise antes de sua manifestação aguda. atuando sobre o processo antecipadamente. Com base nesses indicadores é possível definir estratégias que permitam agir de modo a deter o processo e prevenir o esgotamento fiscal. Em outras palavras, por tratar-se a crise fiscal de um processo estrutural, é possível submeter o município a um tratamento preventivo. Pretende-se também discutir os instrumentos que podem ser utilizados pelos municípios no caso de estarem enfrentando uma crise fiscal. A segunda seção do artigo descreve as variáveis que causam e condicionam o processo e a manifestação aguda de crise fiscal. A terceira seção desenvolve os indicadores analíticos por meio dos quais será possível detectar de modo antecipado um processo de emergência fiscal, ou seja, o sistema preventivo. Na mesma seção, aplica-se o sistema preventivo descrito A cidade paulista de São José dos Campos, para o período de 1980 a 1990, e avalia-se a situação fiscal da cidade. A quarta seção descreve estratégias e políticas que permitirão agir sobre o processo de crise a fim de revertê-lo e evitar sua evolução.

Essays on banking theory and history of financial arrangements

Esta tese contém dois capítulos, cada um lidando com a teoria e a história dos bancos e arranjos financeiros. No capítulo 1, busca-se extender uma economia Diamond-Dybvig com monitoramento imperfeito dos saques antecipados e realizar uma comparação do bem estar social em cada uma das alocações possíveis, como proposto em Presscott and Weinberg(2003). Esse monitoramento imperfeito é implementado a partir da comunicação indireta ( através de um meio de pagamento) entre os agentes e a máquina de depósitos e saques que é um agregado do setor produtivo e financeiro. A extensão consiste em estudar alocações onde uma fração dos agentes pode explorar o monitoramento imperfeito e fraudar a alocação contratada ao consumirem mais cedo além do limite, usando múltiplos meios de pagamento. Com a punição limitada no período de consumo tardio, essa nova alocação pode ser chamada de uma alocação separadora em contraste com as alocações agregadoras onde o agente com habilidade de fraudar é bloqueado por um meio de pagamento imune a fraude, mas custoso, ou por receber consumo futuro suficiente para tornar a fraude desinteressante. A comparação de bem estar na gama de parâmetros escolhida mostra que as alocações separadoras são ótimas para as economias com menor dotação e as agregadoras para as de nível intermediário e as ricas. O capítulo termina com um possível contexto histórico para o modelo, o qual se conecta com a narrativa histórica encontrada no capítulo 2. No capítulo 2 são exploradas as propriedade quantitativas de um sistema de previsão antecedente para crises financeiras, com as váriaveis sendo escolhidas a partir de um arcabouço de ``boom and bust'' descrito mais detalhadamente no apêndice 1. As principais variáveis são: o crescimento real nos preços de imóveis e ações, o diferencial entre os juros dos títulos governamentais de 10 anos e a taxa de 3 meses no mercado inter-bancário e o crescimento nos ativos totais do setor bancário. Essas variáveis produzem uma taxa mais elevada de sinais corretos para as crises bancárias recentes (1984-2008) do que os sistemas de indicadores antecedentes comparáveis. Levar em conta um risco de base crescente ( devido à tendência de acumulação de distorções no sistema de preços relativos em expansões anteriores) também provê informação e eleva o número de sinais corretos em países que não passaram por uma expansão creditícia e nos preços de ativos tão vigorosa.